Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 3, 2016, 1:41 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Heads or Tails

Topic closed. 45 replies. Last post 6 years ago by GASMETERGUY.

Page 2 of 4
52
PrintE-mailLink

Would you do a progressive bet on Tails if the last 5 coin flips were Head?

Yes [ 17 ]  [65.38%]
No [ 9 ]  [34.62%]
Total Valid Votes [ 26 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 0 ]  
Avatar
FL
United States
Member #93841
July 8, 2010
576 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 20, 2011, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

If you bet $62.50 for 11, 12, 13, it would be $62.50 times 3 ($187.50) -- a win will get $225.

Then bet $125 for 14, 15, it would be $187.50+$250 ($437.50) -- a win gets $450

Then bet $187.50 for 16, it would be $187.50+$250+187.50 ($625) -- a win gets $665.

The last winning bet is $250 at 17, which would be $187.50+$250+187.50+250 ($875) -- a win gets $900.

$312.50 at 18 would be $187.50+$250+187.50+$250+$312.50 ($1187.50) -- and a win be $1125 (but you are in the red)

 

Money management will keep you in the game longer, with the possibility of a win.

Good thread!

Money management will keep you in the game longer....this is very true and I agree

BUT

Knowing when to play + Money management is the best combo

 

You can't play every flip because you will lose, you have to have a starting point.  On a 50/50 chance I believe it should be 5+

I don't have enough testing to back me up on it at the moment........

"It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."

    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
    Dallas, Texas
    United States
    Member #4549
    May 2, 2004
    1659 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 20, 2011, 5:21 pm - IP Logged

    Certainly not trying to dissuade you. Here's my thoughts on what you are truly asking:

    You intend to play 125 numbers at .50 each. You will play these numbers STRAIGHT since that is the only way you will make a profit.

    125 numbers is 1/8th of the total 1000 combinations. Each number is expected to hit every 2 to 3 draws.

    If I'm on the right track, I'd suggest picking your numbers carefully and research skips.

    Check out a thread in Lottery Systems on the top 5 systems. Pay attention to BlackApple's post about tracking the last 167 draws.

      sully16's avatar - sharan
      Ringleader
      Michigan
      United States
      Member #81740
      October 28, 2009
      40262 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: January 21, 2011, 10:01 am - IP Logged

      I'd have a 50/50 chance.

      Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

      For a lead role in a cage?

       

                                                  From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19816 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 21, 2011, 10:54 am - IP Logged

        I voted Yes,

         

        There is a 50/50 chance of getting Tails, and heads has already showed up 5 times.  I would make the bet and go up 1 unit after every loss until I win

        If the prize is $225.00 then you could only lose 1 times and come out ahead.

        1. $62.50 - head
        2. $125.00 - head
        3. $250.00 - tail - win $225.00

        Even if you win the third time, all you've done is cut your loses to $5.00

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
          FEMA Region V Camp #21
          United States
          Member #520
          July 27, 2002
          5699 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 21, 2011, 11:23 am - IP Logged

          On casino table games house limits exist to kill "steamers" and progressive systems, whcih are called Martingales (double up and catch up).

          Theorhetically, if somonee had a large enough bankroll they could just keep playing until they won, regardless of how many losing bets they had to get through.

          But in the long run, even if there was no limit, that finally bet, the winner, would produce a gain of one unit (whatever unit you atre betting, $1, $25, etc...)

          On the winning side, the limit stops someone from putting a dollar on a table and letting it ride "to the moon".

          The textbook answer to the question posed by teamprofit is dice, cards, roulette balls, coins etc... "have no memory" and don't know what they showed last. Thus the odds against any given result are always the same.

          Agree with Coin Toss statement re: no memory.  With that said, I would probably play heads because "something" (doesn't matter what - we'd never know anyway) was making heads come up more often at that moment in time.  I'm a believer of "the trend is your friend".

          I voted 'no' because the proportion of the unit bet to prize potential seems too great for a consistently profitable progression wager.

          Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


            Avatar
            FL
            United States
            Member #93841
            July 8, 2010
            576 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 21, 2011, 11:39 am - IP Logged

            Certainly not trying to dissuade you. Here's my thoughts on what you are truly asking:

            You intend to play 125 numbers at .50 each. You will play these numbers STRAIGHT since that is the only way you will make a profit.

            125 numbers is 1/8th of the total 1000 combinations. Each number is expected to hit every 2 to 3 draws.

            If I'm on the right track, I'd suggest picking your numbers carefully and research skips.

            Check out a thread in Lottery Systems on the top 5 systems. Pay attention to BlackApple's post about tracking the last 167 draws.

            Very close.......

             

            I know which set to play.....but my chances are actually 1/2 then when you break it into small groups my chances are 1 out of 4.

            I will create a thread with more information soon........

            I am really looking for the best betting strategy where I can come out winning if the result I am waiting for is taking to long.

            "It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."

              Avatar
              FL
              United States
              Member #93841
              July 8, 2010
              576 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 21, 2011, 11:51 am - IP Logged

              Agree with Coin Toss statement re: no memory.  With that said, I would probably play heads because "something" (doesn't matter what - we'd never know anyway) was making heads come up more often at that moment in time.  I'm a believer of "the trend is your friend".

              I voted 'no' because the proportion of the unit bet to prize potential seems too great for a consistently profitable progression wager.

              I agree with you, I agree with coin toss and I agree with Jimmy..........But you cannot forget of the biased trend.  Sooner or later the opposite has to hit, if it wasn't going to happen then it will not be 1/2 odds.(50/50 means in the long run they should almost have the same amount of appearances, even if they are off by some decimal points)

              "It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."

                Avatar
                FL
                United States
                Member #93841
                July 8, 2010
                576 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 21, 2011, 11:56 am - IP Logged

                If the prize is $225.00 then you could only lose 1 times and come out ahead.

                1. $62.50 - head
                2. $125.00 - head
                3. $250.00 - tail - win $225.00

                Even if you win the third time, all you've done is cut your loses to $5.00

                If you only wager $62.50, you have 3 tries to try to break even/profit.

                1.$62.50-miss

                2.$125 -miss

                3. $187.50- win $225

                profit = $37.50

                "It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19816 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 21, 2011, 12:36 pm - IP Logged

                  If you only wager $62.50, you have 3 tries to try to break even/profit.

                  1.$62.50-miss

                  2.$125 -miss

                  3. $187.50- win $225

                  profit = $37.50

                  Sorry, I misunderstood.   I thought you were doubling up each time you lost.  Are you now saying you've found a game with a 50/50 chance of a win that costs less than a third of the top prize amount to play?  Why hasn't this game gone broke?

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    Avatar
                    FL
                    United States
                    Member #93841
                    July 8, 2010
                    576 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 21, 2011, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

                    Sorry, I misunderstood.   I thought you were doubling up each time you lost.  Are you now saying you've found a game with a 50/50 chance of a win that costs less than a third of the top prize amount to play?  Why hasn't this game gone broke?

                    lol no i'm not saying that I found a game where the chances are 50/50 lol

                    It's the same game everyone is playing, I just broke my categories into a 50/50 for statistical purposes.

                     

                    I didn't notice you were doubling up, I'm sorry....But if I were doubling up the payout is double, the prize amount would increase also...here's an example

                     

                    1.$62.50-miss

                    2.$125(doubled up-wager 2 units) -miss

                    3. $250(doubled up-wager 4 units)- win $900

                    profit = $462.50

                    "It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."


                      United States
                      Member #93947
                      July 10, 2010
                      2180 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: January 21, 2011, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

                      I would take you on this bet any day but only when the coin toss has been one sided for more than 5+ flips. Big Smile

                      And you will still lose by the same ratio, just less often as you wait for the 5 in a row events to occur.  Big Smile

                        Avatar
                        FL
                        United States
                        Member #93841
                        July 8, 2010
                        576 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 21, 2011, 3:52 pm - IP Logged

                        And you will still lose by the same ratio, just less often as you wait for the 5 in a row events to occur.  Big Smile

                        You are very correct, here is my million dollar question now................................................................................................................................

                         

                        Is it still considered losing if you are making a profit??

                        JesterBig Grin

                        "It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."

                          Avatar
                          FL
                          United States
                          Member #93841
                          July 8, 2010
                          576 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 21, 2011, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

                          Let's take a look at this example in the making.................Here's FL Eve's last 6 draws

                           

                          Thu, Jan 20, 2011

                          2-5-4

                          Wed, Jan 19, 2011
                          6-0-6
                          Tue, Jan 18, 2011
                          6-8-8
                          Mon, Jan 17, 2011
                          6-3-0
                          Sun, Jan 16, 2011
                          4-1-8
                          Sat, Jan 15, 2011
                          2-6-8
                          • BP has been even for last 6 draws
                          • First digit has not seen an odd digit since Jan 9(11 days)

                          Which one will happen first ? or will they both show up? Big Smile

                          "It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."

                            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                            Zeta Reticuli Star System
                            United States
                            Member #30470
                            January 17, 2006
                            10344 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: January 21, 2011, 4:36 pm - IP Logged

                            I agree with you, I agree with coin toss and I agree with Jimmy..........But you cannot forget of the biased trend.  Sooner or later the opposite has to hit, if it wasn't going to happen then it will not be 1/2 odds.(50/50 means in the long run they should almost have the same amount of appearances, even if they are off by some decimal points)

                            Teamprofit,

                            The biggest consideration has to be how much are yopu potentionally stuck (loser) before "sooner or later" comes around.

                            As Rick G stated:

                            I voted 'no' because the proportion of the unit bet to prize potential seems too great for a consistently profitable progression wager.

                            Ironically, I got a flyer from Win Track today promoting a Mr. VK's system, and according to him:

                            Most people believe that lotteries are impossible to beat because they are random events. But the Laws of Numbers prove they are WRONG!

                            The only true random occurrence is the very first result of anything. After that, HISTORY influences what will happen next. Let me explain.

                            Everyone knows that the odds of a coin flip are 50/50. But few people know that the odds of one side showing up 3 times in a row go from 50% to 25%, and for 5 times in a row the odds crash to less than 10%.

                            What happened to the 50/50? History. By taking into consideration the previous occurrences, the odds change. Dramatically. And it’s exactly the same with lottery numbers.

                            Personally I don't see that as valid at all, but this is how system sellers operate.

                            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                            Lep

                            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.


                              United States
                              Member #93947
                              July 10, 2010
                              2180 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: January 21, 2011, 4:47 pm - IP Logged

                              Teamprofit,

                              The biggest consideration has to be how much are yopu potentionally stuck (loser) before "sooner or later" comes around.

                              As Rick G stated:

                              I voted 'no' because the proportion of the unit bet to prize potential seems too great for a consistently profitable progression wager.

                              Ironically, I got a flyer from Win Track today promoting a Mr. VK's system, and according to him:

                              Most people believe that lotteries are impossible to beat because they are random events. But the Laws of Numbers prove they are WRONG!

                              The only true random occurrence is the very first result of anything. After that, HISTORY influences what will happen next. Let me explain.

                              Everyone knows that the odds of a coin flip are 50/50. But few people know that the odds of one side showing up 3 times in a row go from 50% to 25%, and for 5 times in a row the odds crash to less than 10%.

                              What happened to the 50/50? History. By taking into consideration the previous occurrences, the odds change. Dramatically. And it’s exactly the same with lottery numbers.

                              Personally I don't see that as valid at all, but this is how system sellers operate.

                              "Personally I don't see that as valid at all, but this is how system sellers operate."

                              I agree.  And this guy couldn't even get his odds right while making his pitch!  Smiley

                              Everyone knows that the odds of a coin flip are 50/50. But few people know that the odds of one side showing up 3 times in a row go from 50% to 25%, and for 5 times in a row the odds crash to less than 10%.