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Heads or Tails

Topic closed. 45 replies. Last post 6 years ago by GASMETERGUY.

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Would you do a progressive bet on Tails if the last 5 coin flips were Head?

Yes [ 17 ]  [65.38%]
No [ 9 ]  [34.62%]
Total Valid Votes [ 26 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 0 ]  
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FL
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Member #93841
July 8, 2010
576 Posts
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Posted: January 21, 2011, 4:51 pm - IP Logged

Teamprofit,

The biggest consideration has to be how much are yopu potentionally stuck (loser) before "sooner or later" comes around.

As Rick G stated:

I voted 'no' because the proportion of the unit bet to prize potential seems too great for a consistently profitable progression wager.

Ironically, I got a flyer from Win Track today promoting a Mr. VK's system, and according to him:

Most people believe that lotteries are impossible to beat because they are random events. But the Laws of Numbers prove they are WRONG!

The only true random occurrence is the very first result of anything. After that, HISTORY influences what will happen next. Let me explain.

Everyone knows that the odds of a coin flip are 50/50. But few people know that the odds of one side showing up 3 times in a row go from 50% to 25%, and for 5 times in a row the odds crash to less than 10%.

What happened to the 50/50? History. By taking into consideration the previous occurrences, the odds change. Dramatically. And it’s exactly the same with lottery numbers.

Personally I don't see that as valid at all, but this is how system sellers operate.

When I say profit, it's because the every amount that was put in was subtracted from the prize.

I don't know who that guy is, i used the head/tails because it's common and easier to start the discussion.

I do believe the odds will always be 50/50, I said it before.  I agree with you and everyone else that has stated their opinion.

But at the same time I do believe the trend has to change because of those same odds, it can go forever and that is where i am trying to build my game plan.

I could care less if I lost 6/10 as long as i made a profit in those 4 that I did win.

"It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."

    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
    Dallas, Texas
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    Posted: January 21, 2011, 6:26 pm - IP Logged

    When I say profit, it's because the every amount that was put in was subtracted from the prize.

    I don't know who that guy is, i used the head/tails because it's common and easier to start the discussion.

    I do believe the odds will always be 50/50, I said it before.  I agree with you and everyone else that has stated their opinion.

    But at the same time I do believe the trend has to change because of those same odds, it can go forever and that is where i am trying to build my game plan.

    I could care less if I lost 6/10 as long as i made a profit in those 4 that I did win.

    I understand the rationale of using 50/50. It is the simplistic term for saying 'it will occur, or it won't.' Those are the possibilities in a singular event.

    In that light, lottery drawings are not a singular event no more than three people consecutively tossing a coin. We accept it as singular for a matter of convenience.

    But in reality a lottery drawing it a short series of multipe events taken as a singular, the same as if you toss a coin, then I toss a coin, and a third person tosses a coin.

    A singular event would be if we all tossed a coin at the same time. Likewise a singular event for the lottery draw would be if all balls dropped at the same time.

    So we say, "This number will fall or it won't. This number will fall or it won't. This number will fall or it won't." 

     

    I agree as well that trends are constant flux. As you've noted, those changes can some as a sudden departure from what has occurred, or they can be gradual shifts.

    As you've noted there is no final outcome, or endgame, available to reflect on. There are no definitive answers as to what will happen next, except those past events which lead us to what is likely.

    Someone mentioned baccharat. The reason you play the trend is you lose once. In betting against the trend, well.....

     

    looking at the Florida numbers you posted, had you started betting against the trend at draw 5, you would have already accumulated 6 losses.

     

    Just food for thought. And very interesting.

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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      Posted: January 21, 2011, 10:33 pm - IP Logged

      I understand the rationale of using 50/50. It is the simplistic term for saying 'it will occur, or it won't.' Those are the possibilities in a singular event.

      In that light, lottery drawings are not a singular event no more than three people consecutively tossing a coin. We accept it as singular for a matter of convenience.

      But in reality a lottery drawing it a short series of multipe events taken as a singular, the same as if you toss a coin, then I toss a coin, and a third person tosses a coin.

      A singular event would be if we all tossed a coin at the same time. Likewise a singular event for the lottery draw would be if all balls dropped at the same time.

      So we say, "This number will fall or it won't. This number will fall or it won't. This number will fall or it won't." 

       

      I agree as well that trends are constant flux. As you've noted, those changes can some as a sudden departure from what has occurred, or they can be gradual shifts.

      As you've noted there is no final outcome, or endgame, available to reflect on. There are no definitive answers as to what will happen next, except those past events which lead us to what is likely.

      Someone mentioned baccharat. The reason you play the trend is you lose once. In betting against the trend, well.....

       

      looking at the Florida numbers you posted, had you started betting against the trend at draw 5, you would have already accumulated 6 losses.

       

      Just food for thought. And very interesting.

      garyo1954

      I agree with you if it means anything,  flatlanders vs Spacewalkers or illuminated vs delusional.

      A suckers bet, even if you pick and it is correct they will just say it was a product of random

      chance.  I don't believe in random so there whole game means nothing to me. I have yet to 

      see a true random event in my life and I never will, why, because like luck it does not exist.

      RL

        time*treat's avatar - radar

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        Posted: January 22, 2011, 2:15 am - IP Logged

        "Personally I don't see that as valid at all, but this is how system sellers operate."

        I agree.  And this guy couldn't even get his odds right while making his pitch!  Smiley

        Everyone knows that the odds of a coin flip are 50/50. But few people know that the odds of one side showing up 3 times in a row go from 50% to 25%, and for 5 times in a row the odds crash to less than 10%.

        There are 8 possible outcomes when a coin is flipped three times.

        HHH or TTT <-- same side showing up 3 times in a row

        HHT or TTH

        HTH or THT

        THH or HTT

        The odds of a fair coin showing the same side three times in a row are 2 in 8, or 25%.

        Two more flips (total of five) brings the odds to 2 in 32 (6.25%, which is less than 10%) of showing the same side 5 times in a row.

        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: January 22, 2011, 3:18 pm - IP Logged

          There are 8 possible outcomes when a coin is flipped three times.

          HHH or TTT <-- same side showing up 3 times in a row

          HHT or TTH

          HTH or THT

          THH or HTT

          The odds of a fair coin showing the same side three times in a row are 2 in 8, or 25%.

          Two more flips (total of five) brings the odds to 2 in 32 (6.25%, which is less than 10%) of showing the same side 5 times in a row.

          I Agree!  50/50= odds of 1/2  and three times = (1/2)X(1/2)X(1/2)= odds of 1/8

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            garyo1954's avatar - garyo
            Dallas, Texas
            United States
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            Posted: January 22, 2011, 4:15 pm - IP Logged

            Chuckle for the day:

            Three buddies buy Pick 3 tickets.

            They are setting down to watch the drawing when the first guy says, "Either it's a six or I'm done."
            The second guys says, "Has to be a one."

            Then the first number pops up 6!

            "That's what I'm talking about!" the first guys says, "Now let's have a one!"
            "Crap! had it, but not as the first number," the second guy says.
            "Same here," says the third guy.

            The second number pops up 4!

            "Oh man," the first guy says, "I have the 4 but not there."
            "I did," the second guys, "4 in the second position."
            "Missed the four too," the third guy says.

            And the third number is 1! So the winning number is 6,4,1.

            "6,1,4 straight. All three numbers and the 6 in the right place. Still lost," the first guy shakes his head.

            "1,4,6 straight. All three numbers with the 4 in the right position, and I lost too," the second guy nods.

            "Well, okay. I had 1,6,4. All three numbers, not a single one in the right position," says the third guy, "and I won $40 on any order!"

            Yep. Most of us have been on all sides of that fence, and with a few exceptions we're not thinking, "I have 1:1000 chance, or even a 1:10 chance," we're thinking, "Either my number hits, or it don't."

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              FL
              United States
              Member #93841
              July 8, 2010
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              Posted: January 22, 2011, 6:30 pm - IP Logged

              I understand the rationale of using 50/50. It is the simplistic term for saying 'it will occur, or it won't.' Those are the possibilities in a singular event.

              In that light, lottery drawings are not a singular event no more than three people consecutively tossing a coin. We accept it as singular for a matter of convenience.

              But in reality a lottery drawing it a short series of multipe events taken as a singular, the same as if you toss a coin, then I toss a coin, and a third person tosses a coin.

              A singular event would be if we all tossed a coin at the same time. Likewise a singular event for the lottery draw would be if all balls dropped at the same time.

              So we say, "This number will fall or it won't. This number will fall or it won't. This number will fall or it won't." 

               

              I agree as well that trends are constant flux. As you've noted, those changes can some as a sudden departure from what has occurred, or they can be gradual shifts.

              As you've noted there is no final outcome, or endgame, available to reflect on. There are no definitive answers as to what will happen next, except those past events which lead us to what is likely.

              Someone mentioned baccharat. The reason you play the trend is you lose once. In betting against the trend, well.....

               

              looking at the Florida numbers you posted, had you started betting against the trend at draw 5, you would have already accumulated 6 losses.

               

              Just food for thought. And very interesting.

              If started playing after the 5th draw I would have only lost twice, one bet of $62.50 and second bet of $125.

              Today Jan 22nd would be the third bet of $187.50

              From back testing i'm still looking good because the latest change was at 9 and so far they are at 7 .

              "It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."

                garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                Dallas, Texas
                United States
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                Posted: January 22, 2011, 6:41 pm - IP Logged

                If started playing after the 5th draw I would have only lost twice, one bet of $62.50 and second bet of $125.

                Today Jan 22nd would be the third bet of $187.50

                From back testing i'm still looking good because the latest change was at 9 and so far they are at 7 .

                Took me a minute to see where the mix up occurred. But I see:

                 

                Thu, Jan 20, 2011

                2-5-4

                Wed, Jan 19, 2011
                6-0-6
                Tue, Jan 18, 2011
                6-8-8
                Mon, Jan 17, 2011
                6-3-0
                Sun, Jan 16, 2011
                4-1-8
                Sat, Jan 15, 2011
                2-6-8

                I was supposing January 15th to be your first play. No biggie. You are on target.


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                  Posted: January 23, 2011, 1:20 am - IP Logged

                  I Agree!  50/50= odds of 1/2  and three times = (1/2)X(1/2)X(1/2)= odds of 1/8

                  RJOh,

                  Time*treat said the odds of flipping the same side 3 times in a row is 2/8 or 25%, which is wrong.

                  You said the odds of flipping the same side 3 times in a row is 1/8 or 12.5%, which is correct.

                  But yet, you said you agree.  Your post makes it appear you agree with time*treat.

                  --Jimmy4164

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
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                    Posted: January 23, 2011, 3:43 am - IP Logged

                    RJOh,

                    Time*treat said the odds of flipping the same side 3 times in a row is 2/8 or 25%, which is wrong.

                    You said the odds of flipping the same side 3 times in a row is 1/8 or 12.5%, which is correct.

                    But yet, you said you agree.  Your post makes it appear you agree with time*treat.

                    --Jimmy4164

                    I was agreeing with his quote at the beginning of his thread "There are 8 possible outcomes when a coin is flipped three times."  I didn't notice his conflicting statement at the end of the thread.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      time*treat's avatar - radar

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                      Posted: January 23, 2011, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

                      RJOh,

                      Time*treat said the odds of flipping the same side 3 times in a row is 2/8 or 25%, which is wrong.

                      You said the odds of flipping the same side 3 times in a row is 1/8 or 12.5%, which is correct.

                      But yet, you said you agree.  Your post makes it appear you agree with time*treat.

                      --Jimmy4164

                      If you flip a coin three times there is a 1 in 4 chance that the outcome will be the same for all three flips. Could be 3 heads. Could be 3 tails.

                      The odds of getting 3 heads in a row = 1/8 = 12.5%

                      The odds of getting 3 tails in a row = 1/8 = 12.5%

                      The odds of getting 3 of either one in a row = 1/8 + 1/8 = 2/8 = 1/4 = 25%

                      There's no conflict.

                      In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                      Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                        time*treat's avatar - radar

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                        Posted: January 23, 2011, 3:01 pm - IP Logged

                        1 unit - wager amount= $62.50

                        Prize = $225.00

                        Would you do a progressive bet on Tails if the last 5 coin flips were Head?

                        Coin History

                        1. H
                        2. T
                        3. T
                        4. H
                        5. T
                        6. H
                        7. H
                        8. H
                        9. H
                        10. H

                        Please explain why or why not.....

                        I forgot to ask: Is this a real coin or a TN lottery RNG coin? Jester

                        In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                        Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.


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                          Posted: January 25, 2011, 1:02 am - IP Logged

                          If you flip a coin three times there is a 1 in 4 chance that the outcome will be the same for all three flips. Could be 3 heads. Could be 3 tails.

                          The odds of getting 3 heads in a row = 1/8 = 12.5%

                          The odds of getting 3 tails in a row = 1/8 = 12.5%

                          The odds of getting 3 of either one in a row = 1/8 + 1/8 = 2/8 = 1/4 = 25%

                          There's no conflict.

                          Teamprofit's poll question specifically refers to a progressive bet on TAILS, which led me to assume that's what was being discussed throughout the thread.  However, what you say here is correct.

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                            FL
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                            Posted: January 25, 2011, 11:02 am - IP Logged

                            I forgot to ask: Is this a real coin or a TN lottery RNG coin? Jester

                            No,  FL Evening coin Big Smile

                            "It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."

                              Avatar
                              FL
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                              Posted: January 25, 2011, 11:31 am - IP Logged

                              Let's take a look at this example in the making.................Here's FL Eve's last 6 draws

                               

                              Thu, Jan 20, 2011

                              2-5-4

                              Wed, Jan 19, 2011
                              6-0-6
                              Tue, Jan 18, 2011
                              6-8-8
                              Mon, Jan 17, 2011
                              6-3-0
                              Sun, Jan 16, 2011
                              4-1-8
                              Sat, Jan 15, 2011
                              2-6-8
                              • BP has been even for last 6 draws
                              • First digit has not seen an odd digit since Jan 9(11 days)

                              Which one will happen first ? or will they both show up? Big Smile

                              Update: FL Eve

                              Mon, Jan 24, 20115-1-7
                              Sun, Jan 23, 20112-3-4
                              Sat, Jan 22, 20113-5-0
                              Fri, Jan 21, 20118-7-4
                              Thu, Jan 20, 20112-5-4
                              Wed, Jan 19, 20116-0-6
                              Tue, Jan 18, 20116-8-8
                              Mon, Jan 17, 20116-3-0
                              Sun, Jan 16, 20114-1-8
                              Sat, Jan 15, 20112-6-8

                               

                              If we had started progressively betting on Jan 20 we would have wagered $312.5(5 units), winning $1125-$312.50+$250+$187.50+$125+62.50=$187.50 profit

                               

                              The point of this thread was to create a discussion with you all and get everyone's opinion on whether you would make the bet and go for Tails(odd).  I want to thank you all for participating and keeping this discussion alive.  I've only tested this with January and a little of December so I don't hav eall the stats but if you progressively bet after the 5th biased outcome you will make a good profit.  It took five bets to get there this time but I don't believe it normally takes that long.

                               

                              I'm sorry for any errors I am at work and I am trying very hard not to get caught Big Smile

                              "It's evolve or die, really, you have to evolve, you have to move on otherwise it just becomes stagnant."