Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 9, 2016, 4:13 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

What Does It Take To Win (Mathematically Speaking?)

Topic closed. 134 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Stack47.

Page 7 of 9
51
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar

United States
Member #105312
January 29, 2011
435 Posts
Offline
Posted: March 21, 2011, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

Whether these prize ratios translate to a real world backtestable winning method remains to be seen.

It also appears this was NOT the result of winning Pick-3s.

http://www.lotterypost.com/predictions-statistics.asp?i=1675&r=3

I took you at your word when you said you had no more interest in what I had to say.

I'm fine with that.

Jimmie:  I gave you my word I wouldn't war with you.  I conceded that and all future exchanges we might have to the correctness of whatever you might post when weighed against anything I might post.

I didn't say I wouldn't comment on your posts.  I only conceded that whenever we disagree on anything I accept the inevitability that you are right and I am wrong.

Which is to say that I am absolutely wrong in my conviction that you have absolutely nothing to teach Rick G about lotteries, lottery systems and lottery draws, while Rick G could probably teach you a lot if he was so inclined.

My viewpoint is supported by the statistics of his prediction history.

But I concede in advance I'm wrong and you are right.


    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
    2180 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: March 21, 2011, 6:40 pm - IP Logged

    Jimmie:  I gave you my word I wouldn't war with you.  I conceded that and all future exchanges we might have to the correctness of whatever you might post when weighed against anything I might post.

    I didn't say I wouldn't comment on your posts.  I only conceded that whenever we disagree on anything I accept the inevitability that you are right and I am wrong.

    Which is to say that I am absolutely wrong in my conviction that you have absolutely nothing to teach Rick G about lotteries, lottery systems and lottery draws, while Rick G could probably teach you a lot if he was so inclined.

    My viewpoint is supported by the statistics of his prediction history.

    But I concede in advance I'm wrong and you are right.

    (Mentioning my work back-testing one of RickG's Pick-3 systems was in no way meant to criticize him.)

    JosephusMinimus says, "But I concede in advance I'm wrong and you are right."

    It's not clear to me what you're wrong about this time.

    "My viewpoint is supported by the statistics of his prediction history."

    Since you seem to be contending that I was wrong when I concluded that one of RickG's Pick-3 systems was not a winner using a 20+ year back-test, then you are WRONG again.  BTW, he confirmed this conclusion ahead of me and thanked me.  Read the thread.  http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/220106/1765400

    As far as his prediction statistics are concerned, you forgot to tell everyone the breakdown of his 122% lifetime prize ratio.

    RickG's Stats by Game Type

    RickG's Stats by State & Game Type

    If you check his stats by Game Type, you will find that his lifetime prize ratios in Pick-3,4,5 & 6 were all in the 50% range, precisely what is expected by chance for the average player.  By State & Game Type you'll see that the Lion's share of his winnings, $58,721, came from predictions in the "Other" game in West Virginia, some time previous to last year.  Could this have been some lucky (4+1) hits in the Powerball?  Whatever it was, it doesn't seem to help in predicting the Pick3-6 games.

    It appears you're going to fall into the category of those who point to "Black Swan" wins and predictions as support for the efficacy of systems.  Everyone knows that when you hit jackpots, even secondary ones, your overall stats look great.  Everyone also knows, through personal experience, that Jackpot hits are rare!  Before you arrived, this debate was focused on the value of system play in the absence of a Jackpot hit.

    Until we hear from RickG on the details of his $58K winnings in WVA in the "Other" game, I don't believe we can say whether RickG's stats support your point of view or not, especially when it's not clear what your point of view is.

      truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
      Michigan
      United States
      Member #22395
      September 24, 2005
      1583 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: March 21, 2011, 6:52 pm - IP Logged

      @JosephusMinimus

      Apples and Oranges

      Not taking sides here.  Rick G is definitely one of the good guys.  He posted a "new" system.  One that jimmy4164 was able to back test.  The results were not profitable.

      I don't think Rick G would agree and then continue to use that particular system to mount up his wins in Predictions.   I believe he must have used other methods.  jimmy4164 didn't do workouts on every single method Rick G might have used, only the new one that was finally rejected by Rick G.

        mayhem's avatar - 142g5yd
        Fort Worth, TX
        United States
        Member #106060
        February 11, 2011
        188 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: March 21, 2011, 6:59 pm - IP Logged

        "JosephusMinimus says, "But I concede in advance I'm wrong and you are right."

        It's not clear to me what you're wrong about this time."

         

        hahaha. This guy is a genius. You thought it was the right thing to say you were wrong....but even that was wrong! lol. I am very jealous at the level of subtle talent involved in this exchange.

        How you do anything is how you do everything.


          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
          2180 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: March 21, 2011, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

          @JosephusMinimus

          Apples and Oranges

          Not taking sides here.  Rick G is definitely one of the good guys.  He posted a "new" system.  One that jimmy4164 was able to back test.  The results were not profitable.

          I don't think Rick G would agree and then continue to use that particular system to mount up his wins in Predictions.   I believe he must have used other methods.  jimmy4164 didn't do workouts on every single method Rick G might have used, only the new one that was finally rejected by Rick G.

          Sorry truecritic.  I have to disagree with your conclusion.

          View the two links above again, the ones pointing to RickG's stats.

          You will find that:

          His large wins occured PRIOR TO 2010 and his stats for 2010 thru

          today show that he is picking at the 50% rate, as expected!


            United States
            Member #93947
            July 10, 2010
            2180 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: March 21, 2011, 7:36 pm - IP Logged

            truecritic@  Actually, most of what you said above was true.  The fact that his big wins were in the past, and not since the rejection of the subject Pick-3 system, is where I disagreed.  However, this was a VERY important point! Smile

              truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
              Michigan
              United States
              Member #22395
              September 24, 2005
              1583 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: March 21, 2011, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

              Sorry truecritic.  I have to disagree with your conclusion.

              View the two links above again, the ones pointing to RickG's stats.

              You will find that:

              His large wins occured PRIOR TO 2010 and his stats for 2010 thru

              today show that he is picking at the 50% rate, as expected!

              His win percent might well be no better than random, I was only pointing out that whatever Rick G used or uses, it most likely wasn't the one particular system that you back tested and didn't prove profitable. I wasn't making a judgment call on his predictions win percent.

                lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
                mississippi
                United States
                Member #34478
                March 3, 2006
                5903 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: March 22, 2011, 7:48 am - IP Logged

                @JosephusMinimus

                Apples and Oranges

                Not taking sides here.  Rick G is definitely one of the good guys.  He posted a "new" system.  One that jimmy4164 was able to back test.  The results were not profitable.

                I don't think Rick G would agree and then continue to use that particular system to mount up his wins in Predictions.   I believe he must have used other methods.  jimmy4164 didn't do workouts on every single method Rick G might have used, only the new one that was finally rejected by Rick G.

                I agree with Truecritic here...RickG is one of the good guys here at LP..I am not going to speculate on what  system he uses or anyone uses..as a younger man ,,hahahhahaha..when I FIRST JOINED LP..I did a lot of reading and saw what most people were doing or trying to do and I made a VERY BOLD STATEMENT back them..I simplely came out and said..I think everyone of yall are going IN THE WRONG DIRECTION with your system....of course being new here I kinda got slammed...hahahaha

                 

                But I held my ground...all the data I had back then was on Louisianna..EVERY PIC 3 COMBO on notebook paper..and year after year, after year, after year I researched. Thats when I discovered my code I use and it..in turn, plus more research led me in the direction of USING THE PAST TO FIND THE FUTURE....

                 

                IT IS NO SECRET HERE..I have said time after time since I joined LP..I use ..MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF DATA from the past to find the future..always have...always will..ONE OF THE KEYS is find whats missing..but you know that already..everyone knows when a digit is missing, a pair is missing, a double is missing...I just took that and went alot further is all..

                Now if I may TOOT MY OWN HORN JUST A LITTLE BIT....I have a gift of sight and critical thinking when it comes to numbers..maybe its just from me doing so much research for so many years that I can see whats going on with the numbers what their doing, patterns..etc...

                FOR EXAMPLE...check ANY PIC 3 on this planet..you CANNOT MAKE IT ONE SINGLE WEEK...just about it..I would say 99% of the time..you cannot make it one single week in the pic 3 games where you do not Get a 0 or 1 in a COMBO..and that ladies and gentlemen THAT  is EXACTLY WHY I prefer to use those groups..now in the past I have stated that to be more precise than just in one week because those 2 groups carry THE BULK OF ALL PIC 3 COMBOS..

                That little demonstration I made about RANDOM on ARKANSAS'S PIC 3 using the digit 4..well that is just ONE VARIABLE... IF YOU were to run every digit by position how many variables would that be...ANSWER IS 30..30 different variables if you use each number designated toits exact position..if that is not understandable..0-9 in the first = 10 right..so second position and then 3rd position will be 30..so there is 30 different variables running just right there..and that is not counting all of the other oneS that are running with it..

                 

                Now getting back to systems.....AND I WANT TO BE VERY CLEAR HERE..and this may HURT SOME PEOPLES FEELINGS but sometimes the truth is the best way...if you cannot take your SYSTEM and use it in another state and produce a winner say in the near future at least a good week if you stretch it maybe 2 weeks...YOU HAVE NOT FOUND JACK SH$T....now for some PAT ON THE BACK ...what you have is a METHOD that deals with numbers in your state..data from your State that allows you to play in your state and  produces results for that state.. A SYSTEM on the other hand will allow you to go to any state and use it ...in my world that is the difference

                 

                ONE OF THE MISSING pieces to the ENTIRE puzzle is right in front of you...you just havent found it yet..or maybe you have and it hasnt sunk in JUST HOW IMPORTANT it really is..that one little piece of information is what alllows me to go from state to state and plug in my reseach...

                 

                THE ANSWER IS TIME..what is time..time is WHAT, WHERE, AND WHEN all rolled  up into one..and ONCE YOU learn how to use it better..THEN IT WILL OPEN the next door, then the next door and then ,the next door..

                 

                Most people will say " THE ONLY TRUE SYSTEM IS ONE THAT WILL WIN A JACKPOT OR HAS WON A JACKPOT"...do you mean like the guy in FLORIDA that owns his own business and won 800k and uses that money to buy a VERY LARGE BULK of numbers to play..HELL..I CAN DO THAT ALREADY..I just dont have the money..hahahha..CASE IN POINT..I posted STATE SPECIFIC I belive on WISCONSINS BADGER 5 with a bulk oF numbers and posted them in the forum years ago..AND ACTUALLY HIT THE JACKPOT  thank you!!!!!..so yes..I know what I am doing!!!!!1

                "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

                  Avatar

                  United States
                  Member #105312
                  January 29, 2011
                  435 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: March 22, 2011, 7:53 am - IP Logged
                  His win percent might well be no better than random, I was only pointing out that whatever Rick G used or uses, it most likely wasn't the one particular system that you back tested and didn't prove profitable. I wasn't making a judgment call on his predictions win percent.

                  Hi true critic.

                  I can see this portion of my recent posts doesn't hold up under backtesting.  My enjoyment of life would suffer if I didn't learn more being wrong than I do on those rare occasions when I'm right.

                  However, my original mention of those prediction statistics wasn't about Rick G.  It was about RJOH.  He's also at the pinnacle of the top predictor list and he posts on this forum.  Rick G came to my notice when Jimmie mentioned him in his post and he seemed to illustrate my earlier point concerning the anomaly of sustained and repeated success with prediction histories as RJOH.

                  I'd been given no other excuse for continuing with my original thought by any signs of interest from posters here, so when Jimmie mentioned RickG, whom I recognized from the top predictors list I jumped on it as a target of opportunity.

                  But of course I was wrong in doing so.

                    Avatar

                    United States
                    Member #105312
                    January 29, 2011
                    435 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: March 22, 2011, 8:22 am - IP Logged

                    I agree with Truecritic here...RickG is one of the good guys here at LP..I am not going to speculate on what  system he uses or anyone uses..as a younger man ,,hahahhahaha..when I FIRST JOINED LP..I did a lot of reading and saw what most people were doing or trying to do and I made a VERY BOLD STATEMENT back them..I simplely came out and said..I think everyone of yall are going IN THE WRONG DIRECTION with your system....of course being new here I kinda got slammed...hahahaha

                     

                    But I held my ground...all the data I had back then was on Louisianna..EVERY PIC 3 COMBO on notebook paper..and year after year, after year, after year I researched. Thats when I discovered my code I use and it..in turn, plus more research led me in the direction of USING THE PAST TO FIND THE FUTURE....

                     

                    IT IS NO SECRET HERE..I have said time after time since I joined LP..I use ..MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF DATA from the past to find the future..always have...always will..ONE OF THE KEYS is find whats missing..but you know that already..everyone knows when a digit is missing, a pair is missing, a double is missing...I just took that and went alot further is all..

                    Now if I may TOOT MY OWN HORN JUST A LITTLE BIT....I have a gift of sight and critical thinking when it comes to numbers..maybe its just from me doing so much research for so many years that I can see whats going on with the numbers what their doing, patterns..etc...

                    FOR EXAMPLE...check ANY PIC 3 on this planet..you CANNOT MAKE IT ONE SINGLE WEEK...just about it..I would say 99% of the time..you cannot make it one single week in the pic 3 games where you do not Get a 0 or 1 in a COMBO..and that ladies and gentlemen THAT  is EXACTLY WHY I prefer to use those groups..now in the past I have stated that to be more precise than just in one week because those 2 groups carry THE BULK OF ALL PIC 3 COMBOS..

                    That little demonstration I made about RANDOM on ARKANSAS'S PIC 3 using the digit 4..well that is just ONE VARIABLE... IF YOU were to run every digit by position how many variables would that be...ANSWER IS 30..30 different variables if you use each number designated toits exact position..if that is not understandable..0-9 in the first = 10 right..so second position and then 3rd position will be 30..so there is 30 different variables running just right there..and that is not counting all of the other oneS that are running with it..

                     

                    Now getting back to systems.....AND I WANT TO BE VERY CLEAR HERE..and this may HURT SOME PEOPLES FEELINGS but sometimes the truth is the best way...if you cannot take your SYSTEM and use it in another state and produce a winner say in the near future at least a good week if you stretch it maybe 2 weeks...YOU HAVE NOT FOUND JACK SH$T....now for some PAT ON THE BACK ...what you have is a METHOD that deals with numbers in your state..data from your State that allows you to play in your state and  produces results for that state.. A SYSTEM on the other hand will allow you to go to any state and use it ...in my world that is the difference

                     

                    ONE OF THE MISSING pieces to the ENTIRE puzzle is right in front of you...you just havent found it yet..or maybe you have and it hasnt sunk in JUST HOW IMPORTANT it really is..that one little piece of information is what alllows me to go from state to state and plug in my reseach...

                     

                    THE ANSWER IS TIME..what is time..time is WHAT, WHERE, AND WHEN all rolled  up into one..and ONCE YOU learn how to use it better..THEN IT WILL OPEN the next door, then the next door and then ,the next door..

                     

                    Most people will say " THE ONLY TRUE SYSTEM IS ONE THAT WILL WIN A JACKPOT OR HAS WON A JACKPOT"...do you mean like the guy in FLORIDA that owns his own business and won 800k and uses that money to buy a VERY LARGE BULK of numbers to play..HELL..I CAN DO THAT ALREADY..I just dont have the money..hahahha..CASE IN POINT..I posted STATE SPECIFIC I belive on WISCONSINS BADGER 5 with a bulk oF numbers and posted them in the forum years ago..AND ACTUALLY HIT THE JACKPOT  thank you!!!!!..so yes..I know what I am doing!!!!!1

                    Lotterybraker:  Not to say whether I agree or disagree with you carries any weight in the matter of how lotteries and numbers work, because it shouldn't.  I have no doubt if you and I knew one another better we'd find we don't agree more than we do.

                    But while my experience, research and testing certainly doesn't approach what you and others here have probably done, I believe there is a persuasive body of evidence to support your argument that time is of overwhelming importance in understanding it all, and that one size fits all.

                    There's not much about your post in conflict with what appears to emerge from the evidence found in lottery histories.

                    Thanks for the post.

                      Avatar

                      United States
                      Member #105312
                      January 29, 2011
                      435 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: March 22, 2011, 9:46 am - IP Logged

                      (Mentioning my work back-testing one of RickG's Pick-3 systems was in no way meant to criticize him.)

                      JosephusMinimus says, "But I concede in advance I'm wrong and you are right."

                      It's not clear to me what you're wrong about this time.

                      "My viewpoint is supported by the statistics of his prediction history."

                      Since you seem to be contending that I was wrong when I concluded that one of RickG's Pick-3 systems was not a winner using a 20+ year back-test, then you are WRONG again.  BTW, he confirmed this conclusion ahead of me and thanked me.  Read the thread.  http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/220106/1765400

                      As far as his prediction statistics are concerned, you forgot to tell everyone the breakdown of his 122% lifetime prize ratio.

                      RickG's Stats by Game Type

                      RickG's Stats by State & Game Type

                      If you check his stats by Game Type, you will find that his lifetime prize ratios in Pick-3,4,5 & 6 were all in the 50% range, precisely what is expected by chance for the average player.  By State & Game Type you'll see that the Lion's share of his winnings, $58,721, came from predictions in the "Other" game in West Virginia, some time previous to last year.  Could this have been some lucky (4+1) hits in the Powerball?  Whatever it was, it doesn't seem to help in predicting the Pick3-6 games.

                      It appears you're going to fall into the category of those who point to "Black Swan" wins and predictions as support for the efficacy of systems.  Everyone knows that when you hit jackpots, even secondary ones, your overall stats look great.  Everyone also knows, through personal experience, that Jackpot hits are rare!  Before you arrived, this debate was focused on the value of system play in the absence of a Jackpot hit.

                      Until we hear from RickG on the details of his $58K winnings in WVA in the "Other" game, I don't believe we can say whether RickG's stats support your point of view or not, especially when it's not clear what your point of view is.

                      Jimmie:  No, I'm not pointing to anything to demonstrate the efficacy of systems, no matter what color swans they might be.  I'm pointing out that the two members on the top predictors list whom I've mentioned in my recent posts represent a body of evidence arguing there is a fly in the ointment worth unbiased examination as to what it implies. 

                      My readings of your posts here gave me the impression your feet are set in the concrete of what you already believe you know and that your entire approach is a crusade to attack discussions not in agreement with the body of knowledge you believe you represent as a means of somehow elevating yourself by deconstructing the attempts of others to arrive at their own understanding.

                      The fact you helped someone else in one of your adventures doesn't change that impression enough to overcome my other impression that your intentions don't include learning anything.  By implication it suggests you believe yourself to already be in possession of everything you need to know, and that the other members posting here don't share the ability to already know the workings of the universe sufficiently to justify civility in rhetorical exchanges. 

                      I haven't observed you offering proof of anything unless the definition of the word proof is allowed to relax and smoke a cigarette over a gin and tonic.

                        Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                        FEMA Region V Camp #21
                        United States
                        Member #520
                        July 27, 2002
                        5699 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: March 22, 2011, 11:58 am - IP Logged

                        You must have left something intact.  Rick G:

                         

                        He has predicted 71,000+ draws and has a 2.06% hit ratio combined with 122.25% prize ratio.

                        Last year he had a 50.41% prize ratio.  This year he has a 73.31% prize ratio.

                         

                        Maybe you need to point out some other flaws in his methods.  Whatever methods he was left with after you dismantled him through reasoning and logic.

                        I wish I could blame Jimmy on my losses, but I can't.  I appreciate his efforts in backtesting to prove or disprove systems.  The last thing we want to do is lead other players astray.  I have no probs with Jimmy whatsoever.

                        My two cents:

                        As someone wisely posted above, every effect has a cause.  The cause is not only 'buying the ticket' but includes everything (e.g., the interaction of atoms on the bouncing balls, the position of the balls before they are scrambled, the timing of the person drawing the number, etc.).  Just because we can't identify the causes doesn't mean they doesn't exist.  Attempting to define randomness is a good mental exercise but nothing is random.  It only appears that way.  Disorder co-exists with order...without one you can't have the other.  Order defines disorder and disorder defines order.

                        In other words, everyone on this thread is correct AND incorrect.  It is all relative to the player himself.  As an observer, he affects the experiment.

                        I think we'd have more success concentrating on the outcome of the draw and not the causes leading up to it.  That means accessing the "future" which is not as difficult as analyzing the causes.  Look how popular the Dreams forum is compared to the Mathematics or Systems forums.  Are they not successful?

                        Consider this:  Linear time is a mental construct used to define a sequence of events.  But time is not linear.  (Think of the infinity symbol where the lines do not intersect in 3-D.)  The number has already been drawn.  We only 'think' the number isn't drawn until 10 o'clock.  This is a tough concept to wrap our heads around, but once we understand it we can use it to our advantage.

                        Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                          garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                          Dallas, Texas
                          United States
                          Member #4549
                          May 2, 2004
                          1729 Posts
                          Online
                          Posted: March 22, 2011, 4:30 pm - IP Logged

                          I wish I could blame Jimmy on my losses, but I can't.  I appreciate his efforts in backtesting to prove or disprove systems.  The last thing we want to do is lead other players astray.  I have no probs with Jimmy whatsoever.

                          My two cents:

                          As someone wisely posted above, every effect has a cause.  The cause is not only 'buying the ticket' but includes everything (e.g., the interaction of atoms on the bouncing balls, the position of the balls before they are scrambled, the timing of the person drawing the number, etc.).  Just because we can't identify the causes doesn't mean they doesn't exist.  Attempting to define randomness is a good mental exercise but nothing is random.  It only appears that way.  Disorder co-exists with order...without one you can't have the other.  Order defines disorder and disorder defines order.

                          In other words, everyone on this thread is correct AND incorrect.  It is all relative to the player himself.  As an observer, he affects the experiment.

                          I think we'd have more success concentrating on the outcome of the draw and not the causes leading up to it.  That means accessing the "future" which is not as difficult as analyzing the causes.  Look how popular the Dreams forum is compared to the Mathematics or Systems forums.  Are they not successful?

                          Consider this:  Linear time is a mental construct used to define a sequence of events.  But time is not linear.  (Think of the infinity symbol where the lines do not intersect in 3-D.)  The number has already been drawn.  We only 'think' the number isn't drawn until 10 o'clock.  This is a tough concept to wrap our heads around, but once we understand it we can use it to our advantage.

                          Great Post RickG! Very lucid.

                          Nothing is random. True!

                          One only need look at Fibronacci numbers and their ubiquitous presence in nature to understand that sometimes what we see, is not what we see at all! Pine cones, pineapples, and trees, even the generations of honey bees (I'm a poet, lol) are all testimony to the power of the order of randomness.

                          Timeis a construct of man which simply gives us a means to place events in some understandable order. 

                          Yes, Mathematics should be a strong and vibrant place. New ideas should be posted regulary for discussion. But unlike Mystic Fo, where people are open minded, there are those here who don't share the idea of exploratory math and lottery.

                          Discussions are opinon based. No one needs to read about Monty Halls' problem in four different threads, or be referred to the gamblers fallacy for the 2437th time. Those are not new information. They often have nothing to do with the current discussion. And they lead back down the same tired worn out path of, "I'm right. You're wrong. Read this link." Biggest barf in the forum. Discussions are opinion based. 

                          RickG it is good to see you weigh in with some fresh thoughts!

                            Avatar
                            Kentucky
                            United States
                            Member #32652
                            February 14, 2006
                            7318 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: March 22, 2011, 5:27 pm - IP Logged

                            I wish I could blame Jimmy on my losses, but I can't.  I appreciate his efforts in backtesting to prove or disprove systems.  The last thing we want to do is lead other players astray.  I have no probs with Jimmy whatsoever.

                            My two cents:

                            As someone wisely posted above, every effect has a cause.  The cause is not only 'buying the ticket' but includes everything (e.g., the interaction of atoms on the bouncing balls, the position of the balls before they are scrambled, the timing of the person drawing the number, etc.).  Just because we can't identify the causes doesn't mean they doesn't exist.  Attempting to define randomness is a good mental exercise but nothing is random.  It only appears that way.  Disorder co-exists with order...without one you can't have the other.  Order defines disorder and disorder defines order.

                            In other words, everyone on this thread is correct AND incorrect.  It is all relative to the player himself.  As an observer, he affects the experiment.

                            I think we'd have more success concentrating on the outcome of the draw and not the causes leading up to it.  That means accessing the "future" which is not as difficult as analyzing the causes.  Look how popular the Dreams forum is compared to the Mathematics or Systems forums.  Are they not successful?

                            Consider this:  Linear time is a mental construct used to define a sequence of events.  But time is not linear.  (Think of the infinity symbol where the lines do not intersect in 3-D.)  The number has already been drawn.  We only 'think' the number isn't drawn until 10 o'clock.  This is a tough concept to wrap our heads around, but once we understand it we can use it to our advantage.

                            "I wish I could blame Jimmy on my losses, but I can't. I appreciate his efforts in backtesting to prove or disprove systems"

                            Jimmy compared your system to the 33 year history of PA evening pick-3 drawing when I seriously doubt you or anyone else would continue to use any system that failed for even 6 months. Had you continued with your ideas, it's possible someone could have used your system for a month and won thousands. He did the same analysis with a Tic Tac Toe workout suggesting players would play every possible combination in the workout every day for over 33 years. He doesn't have clue how players use their workouts or systems.

                            His analysis never includes that any system may get a number of hits over a month or two of play or that the player might increase their wagers. None of Jimmy's analysis include even average lottery play and hardly anyone responds because they would never play that way.

                            (Should I mention Jimmy's Challenge statistics that ridiculously suggested a group of players would actually wager $3168 twice a week for a year?)

                            The fun part of Lottery Post is reading and discussing ideas with players from all over the world. I believe the difference between Jimmy and the other 100,000 plus LP members is they are looking for ways to have more fun playing lottery games and Jimmy wants to prove having fun and winning a couple bucks is impossible.

                            Some systems don't pass the "eyes rolling test" while others are very interesting. Rick, your systems are always fun and interesting to try. Don't stop suggesting them because we have one sour puss on board trying to disprove them.

                            We're on page seven and Jimmy still hasn't offered even one suggestion on "What does it take to win" on the topic he started.

                              Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                              FEMA Region V Camp #21
                              United States
                              Member #520
                              July 27, 2002
                              5699 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: March 22, 2011, 5:32 pm - IP Logged

                              Great Post RickG! Very lucid.

                              Nothing is random. True!

                              One only need look at Fibronacci numbers and their ubiquitous presence in nature to understand that sometimes what we see, is not what we see at all! Pine cones, pineapples, and trees, even the generations of honey bees (I'm a poet, lol) are all testimony to the power of the order of randomness.

                              Timeis a construct of man which simply gives us a means to place events in some understandable order. 

                              Yes, Mathematics should be a strong and vibrant place. New ideas should be posted regulary for discussion. But unlike Mystic Fo, where people are open minded, there are those here who don't share the idea of exploratory math and lottery.

                              Discussions are opinon based. No one needs to read about Monty Halls' problem in four different threads, or be referred to the gamblers fallacy for the 2437th time. Those are not new information. They often have nothing to do with the current discussion. And they lead back down the same tired worn out path of, "I'm right. You're wrong. Read this link." Biggest barf in the forum. Discussions are opinion based. 

                              RickG it is good to see you weigh in with some fresh thoughts!

                              Thank you, garyo1954.  It's refreshing to see that others understand these concepts.  You expressed it very well.

                              A thermometer has no 'hot' or 'cold' designation.  Hot and cold are subjective to the observer and are varying degrees of the same thing, temperature.

                              This thread is like a discussion of whether it's warm outside or cold outside.  An Eskimo may think 32 degrees is pretty balmy but a Floridian would disagree with him.

                              Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).