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Determinism vs Randomness and ChancePrev TopicNext Topic
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"All the evidence involving lottery draws is found in lottery draws."
Much of the evidence involving lottery drawings comes from sources completely uninvolved with lotteries. You could certainly develop hypotheses from examining past drawings (which is, of, course the entire basis for attempts to develop systems), but theres a wealth of information about probability theory from other sources, that is very much applicable to both past and future lottery drawings.
"General ideas and opinions not based on examination of evidence are sometimes interesting too, but can't contribute to a better understanding of the subject."
Some posters may be presenting errors or ignorance, but whether it's explained or not, I think it's all based on evidence, or at least the poster's understanding or interpretation of the evidence. While multiple posters may be presenting novel ideas I'm reasonably sure that only one is suggesting things that are outside of mainstream views of probability.
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Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Feb 22, 2011
RL-RANDOMLOGIC,
When you say things like, "...the same thing could of been said of your many post, you just took the time to try and make them look like they were your own," you really need to back up your claims!
Would you like to produce some examples of my "many post[sic]" you feel are plagiarisms, including where I copied them from without attribution?
By the way, your lame excuses for not being able to prove your system will be profitable for others over reasonably long periods of time are getting boring. Do you really think anyone believes a scan of a winning ticket is any more than that? Who here couldn't produce "tons" of them?
--Jimmy4164
P.S. Do you have anything original to say in response to the articles I pointed to above and the one Raven62 posted?
jimmy
All they need to do is google your topics and follow the links. None of the post you have made
are original in any since of the word. You claim to have such great understanding of probability
that even before a method is posted your convinced it is flawed. Now you have resorted to saying
I have faked my tickets somehow. You stated "Who here couldn't produce "tons" of them?" Really
I ask you to produce lets say 5ea 3 of 5's and one 4 of 5 by friday for your PA 5-30 game that I could
fax to the PA lottery for authentication. Back when I was scanning my tickets I normally sent them that
night or early the next morning. The barcodes I would think could be scanned to prove they are real.
How would I get my hands on a ticket with a 4 of 5 match within minutes of the drawing unless I
purchased them. I even sent screenshots of the settings I used so that others could come up with
the same numbers as those on the tickets. Fake, I don't think so.
Determinism and Indeterminism are some of mans attemps to make since of existance. I have given
my opinion on this many times. Every event is the result of another event with only one exception,
GOD. Parallel worlds being created everytime I sneeze makes good science fiction and is fun to think
about but these people need to get a grip. Learn from the past and apply it to the future, no matter
what think you may know, your not the first. Maybe parallel universes are the dark matter that so many
are looking for, and maybe not.
Yor continued insistance that I cannot do what I have already done is laughable. Maybe someday I will
finally lose everything and you will be happy but you must first at least consider that I might quit playing
before this could happen. How long can I play before I can expect to lose everything, a week, month, year,
10 years? If you could calculate this for me it would be a really big help. This should be easy for you and
would be something I could really use, if you can't then I don't think that you need to say anymore.
PS maybe you can calculate the point I will start losing because that would be even more helpful.RL
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Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Feb 23, 2011
"All the evidence involving lottery draws is found in lottery draws."
Much of the evidence involving lottery drawings comes from sources completely uninvolved with lotteries. You could certainly develop hypotheses from examining past drawings (which is, of, course the entire basis for attempts to develop systems), but theres a wealth of information about probability theory from other sources, that is very much applicable to both past and future lottery drawings.
"General ideas and opinions not based on examination of evidence are sometimes interesting too, but can't contribute to a better understanding of the subject."
Some posters may be presenting errors or ignorance, but whether it's explained or not, I think it's all based on evidence, or at least the poster's understanding or interpretation of the evidence. While multiple posters may be presenting novel ideas I'm reasonably sure that only one is suggesting things that are outside of mainstream views of probability.
KY Floyd
"All the evidence involving lottery draws is found in lottery draws."
Maybe he was talking about the matrix of possible draws and not the history of draws which then would
be correct.
RL
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Jimmy
Taken from your maddogs powerball challenge analysis
Poster JP 5+0 4+1 4+0 3+1 3+0 2+1 1+1 PB #Hits $Won $Equity ROI*
Winlotta 0 4 0 140 0 1560 360 2250 2142 6456 842866 589426 3.326
I now see the problem, It's not that it can't be done, It's just that my methods don't work.
RL
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"Some posters may be presenting errors or ignorance, but whether it's explained or not, I think it's all based on evidence, or at least the poster's understanding or interpretation of the evidence. While multiple posters may be presenting novel ideas I'm reasonably sure that only one is suggesting things that are outside of mainstream views of probability."
KY Floyd: I haven't visited most of the forums, but I've read the labels. This is a huge site. The names of the forums argue what you've said probably isn't accurate. That's why I haven't bothered visiting them.
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Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on Feb 23, 2011
jimmy
All they need to do is google your topics and follow the links. None of the post you have made
are original in any since of the word. You claim to have such great understanding of probability
that even before a method is posted your convinced it is flawed. Now you have resorted to saying
I have faked my tickets somehow. You stated "Who here couldn't produce "tons" of them?" Really
I ask you to produce lets say 5ea 3 of 5's and one 4 of 5 by friday for your PA 5-30 game that I could
fax to the PA lottery for authentication. Back when I was scanning my tickets I normally sent them that
night or early the next morning. The barcodes I would think could be scanned to prove they are real.
How would I get my hands on a ticket with a 4 of 5 match within minutes of the drawing unless I
purchased them. I even sent screenshots of the settings I used so that others could come up with
the same numbers as those on the tickets. Fake, I don't think so.
Determinism and Indeterminism are some of mans attemps to make since of existance. I have given
my opinion on this many times. Every event is the result of another event with only one exception,
GOD. Parallel worlds being created everytime I sneeze makes good science fiction and is fun to think
about but these people need to get a grip. Learn from the past and apply it to the future, no matter
what think you may know, your not the first. Maybe parallel universes are the dark matter that so many
are looking for, and maybe not.
Yor continued insistance that I cannot do what I have already done is laughable. Maybe someday I will
finally lose everything and you will be happy but you must first at least consider that I might quit playing
before this could happen. How long can I play before I can expect to lose everything, a week, month, year,
10 years? If you could calculate this for me it would be a really big help. This should be easy for you and
would be something I could really use, if you can't then I don't think that you need to say anymore.
PS maybe you can calculate the point I will start losing because that would be even more helpful.RL
RL-RANDOMLOGIC,
When you say things like, "...the same thing could of been said of your many post, you just took the time to try and make them look like they were your own," you really need to back up your claims!
Would you like to produce some examples of my "many post[sic]" you feel are plagiarisms, including where I copied them from without attribution?
By the way, your lame excuses for not being able to prove your system will be profitable for others over reasonably long periods of time are getting boring. Do you really think anyone believes a scan of a winning ticket is any more than that? Who here couldn't produce "tons" of them?
--Jimmy4164
P.S. Do you have anything original to say in response to the articles I pointed to above and the one Raven62 posted?
-------------------------------------------------------------
Again, as with your claims of lottery success, you fail to provide credible evidence of it. Originally you said that I had made "many post[sic]" that were plagiarized. When I press for examples, you now back off to, "All they need to do is google your topics and follow the links. None of the post you have made are original in any since[sic] of the word."
Is this the best you can come up with? EXAMPLES PLEASE!
And then you say, "Now you have resorted to sayingI have faked my tickets somehow."
You really do have a problem with logical analysis of English. Please read my post above that you are referring to again. Did I even hint that you faked tickets? No, I did not. In fact, I'm sure you can produce "tons" of scans of valid winning tickets. What I'm trying to point out is that winning tickets prove NOTHING, unless they are accompanied by verifiable evidence of the COSTS incurred, and over what period of time. A scan of your $27,000 winning ticket proves no more about your system than scans of all the winning Powerball Jackpot QuickPick tickets prove that buying QPs is profitable for the average player! It's not. Think about it. The fact that you would quote from the summary of the 2010 MadDog Powerball Challenge, highlighting WinLotta's good fortune in that simulated game, speaks volumes about your perspective on this, and is pathetic.
You are a person who, while playing a system, has had the good fortune to win much more than most [was it $80K] over the years, and as a result have become convinced your system can work for everyone. For you to admit that you were lucky enough to find one of Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swans" would require you to give up the exaltation you experience from your "Illusion of Control."
As KY-Floyd and JosephusMinimus are revealing through civilized exchange of their differences, this is a very complex and controversial area of philosophy. In the meantime, because the mathematics to theoretically prove or disprove the efficacy of any number selection system for lotteries is not a reasonable goal for most of us here, a computer simulation or a backtest is the only approach that makes any sense. Consequently, until you are prepared to demonstrate your system in this way, it would really make me happy if you would take the thousands of dollars you've had the good fortune to win, parlay it, and leave those interested free to examine some interesting Monte Carlo software techniques that I would like to introduce which could prove useful not only in understanding the lottery, but other more general areas where stochastic processes exist.
You are free to explore your interests in other Topics here, and unless you are mounting attacks on me, either directly, or through innuendo, I will feel no need to interrupt you.
--Jimmy4164
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Jimmy
"Who here couldn't produce "tons" of them?"
Sorry, I misunderstood your post. I am glad to hear so many here are doing well.
I will make you a deal, You stay out of my post and I will stay out of yours. Which is all I every wanted.
RL
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Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Feb 22, 2011
Josephus,
Several of your points are well taken. However, I must disagree with a couple. I wish I had had more faith in the other readers before investing so much time, apparently much of it wasted. The lack of enthusiastic postings supporting RL's claims should have been sufficient evidence for me to realize what you hint at; users of the system will find out how well it works.
First of all, I think I made the case fairly well in my opening Post to this Topic that the more general philosophical "issues" are overriding in this situation. What the determinists see as patterns, I see as noise.
Secondly, I HAVE spent considerable time and energy analysing previous draws in these Forums in an attempt to show people that no matter what convoluted "lotto math" they applied to past history in the Pick-3 games, they tended to win on average 1 time for every 1000 straight bet tickets they purchased. To no avail.
https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/218174/1736549
https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/220106
Here's a full year's analysis of the Powerball:
https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/222395/1899924
It's understandable how people who don't understand how much deviation can occur in random processes can get enthusiastic when a system works over a short period of time. Until someone is willing to match their system selections daily over a period of at least several months, from a scientific point of view, they should not be taken seriously. In one of the links above you may have seen that RickG WAS willing, and accepted the results.
I really don't want to invest any more time on this. Thanks for your input.
--Jimmy4164
"I wish I had had more faith in the other readers before investing so much time, apparently much of it wasted."
The readers are looking for helpful ideas to play lottery games and to date, you have provided none. Get with the program!
"Secondly, I HAVE spent considerable time and energy analysing previous draws in these Forums in an attempt to show people that no matter what convoluted "lotto math" they applied to past history in the Pick-3 games, they tended to win on average 1 time for every 1000 straight bet tickets they purchased."
The math was done years ago before anyone wagered on pick-3 games and the house edge is and has been 50% in almost every state lottery pick-3 game. A "the glass is half empty" type of guy like you will never understand that some players are winning something from the 50% the pick-3 games are paying out.
In the recent record MM jackpot almost all the players knew the odds against winning but still wagered $229 million in one drawing. Two players beat the odds, over 60 players won at least $250,000, and the others will buy another $1 dream in the next drawing. They play because they know somebody will eventually win millions and those reasons to play are good enough.
Do players really need someone like you to say they probably won't win the jackpot?
You make illogical assumptions of how people play, but it's your time and you can waste it any way you choose just like any poster can waste their time explaining why your information is useless.
"Here's a full year's analysis of the Powerball:"
That analysis is useless because it's based on all the Challenge players wagering $3168 PB twice a week for a year. Even though several members told you wagering that much money would be a bad bet and doubted anyone would make it BEFORE your results were known, you were tickled pink when your analysis proved it. Just another example of your illogical and unrealistic assumptions of how people play lottery games.
Next time you're in Vegas, instead of staying in your room replying to LP posts, go into the casinos and observe how players wager real money.
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Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Feb 24, 2011
"I wish I had had more faith in the other readers before investing so much time, apparently much of it wasted."
The readers are looking for helpful ideas to play lottery games and to date, you have provided none. Get with the program!
"Secondly, I HAVE spent considerable time and energy analysing previous draws in these Forums in an attempt to show people that no matter what convoluted "lotto math" they applied to past history in the Pick-3 games, they tended to win on average 1 time for every 1000 straight bet tickets they purchased."
The math was done years ago before anyone wagered on pick-3 games and the house edge is and has been 50% in almost every state lottery pick-3 game. A "the glass is half empty" type of guy like you will never understand that some players are winning something from the 50% the pick-3 games are paying out.
In the recent record MM jackpot almost all the players knew the odds against winning but still wagered $229 million in one drawing. Two players beat the odds, over 60 players won at least $250,000, and the others will buy another $1 dream in the next drawing. They play because they know somebody will eventually win millions and those reasons to play are good enough.
Do players really need someone like you to say they probably won't win the jackpot?
You make illogical assumptions of how people play, but it's your time and you can waste it any way you choose just like any poster can waste their time explaining why your information is useless.
"Here's a full year's analysis of the Powerball:"
That analysis is useless because it's based on all the Challenge players wagering $3168 PB twice a week for a year. Even though several members told you wagering that much money would be a bad bet and doubted anyone would make it BEFORE your results were known, you were tickled pink when your analysis proved it. Just another example of your illogical and unrealistic assumptions of how people play lottery games.
Next time you're in Vegas, instead of staying in your room replying to LP posts, go into the casinos and observe how players wager real money.
Stack47,
You said,
"...you will never understand that some players are winning something from the 50% the pick-3 games are paying out."
Of course there are winners! If you had really been paying attention to what I've been saying for the last 6 months, YOU might understand that because of the obscene 50% house cut, and the LOW 500/1 Jackpots, the VAST MAJORITY of Pick-3 players register a LOSS year over year!
Do yourself a favor. Either write for yourself or purchase Monte Carlo Simulation Software and observe how the Bell Shaped Curve of Pick-3 winnings shifts to the RED as you start with a minimal house edge like the one in Roulette and slowly move towards 50%. You must think offshore payouts of 90% are cash machines for the players!
As far as large jackpots go, I play the Powerball and Megamillions twice weekly and your continual blatherings of the lie that I don't understand the odds there as well are a bore.
I would love to see a complete specification of your favorite Pick-3 system, one that you allude to the existence of that one could live on the winnings from, so we could put it to the test. We could form a conspiracy of thousands of LP players, focus on one state, and laugh all the way to the bank as we watch that state go bankrupt while we collectively take them down through their Pick-3!
I'm sorry Stack47, but YOU are the one with deficiencies in the understanding of Game Theory.
--Jimmy4164
-
Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Feb 24, 2011
Stack47,
You said,
"...you will never understand that some players are winning something from the 50% the pick-3 games are paying out."
Of course there are winners! If you had really been paying attention to what I've been saying for the last 6 months, YOU might understand that because of the obscene 50% house cut, and the LOW 500/1 Jackpots, the VAST MAJORITY of Pick-3 players register a LOSS year over year!
Do yourself a favor. Either write for yourself or purchase Monte Carlo Simulation Software and observe how the Bell Shaped Curve of Pick-3 winnings shifts to the RED as you start with a minimal house edge like the one in Roulette and slowly move towards 50%. You must think offshore payouts of 90% are cash machines for the players!
As far as large jackpots go, I play the Powerball and Megamillions twice weekly and your continual blatherings of the lie that I don't understand the odds there as well are a bore.
I would love to see a complete specification of your favorite Pick-3 system, one that you allude to the existence of that one could live on the winnings from, so we could put it to the test. We could form a conspiracy of thousands of LP players, focus on one state, and laugh all the way to the bank as we watch that state go bankrupt while we collectively take them down through their Pick-3!
I'm sorry Stack47, but YOU are the one with deficiencies in the understanding of Game Theory.
--Jimmy4164
I would love to see a complete specification of your favorite Pick-3 system, one that you allude to the existence of that one could live on the winnings from, so we could put it to the test. We could form a conspiracy of thousands of LP players, focus on one state, and laugh all the way to the bank as we watch that state go bankrupt while we collectively take them down through their Pick-3!
Sounds good but it will never happen even if someone does has a winning system because all states have rules that fix their loses on pick3/4 games by limitings the amount that can be bet on any particular combination and their other games will go pari-mutual if their payouts go beyond a certain limit. The odds are such that it shouldn't ever happens but they are prepared if it does. The best thing a player can do if he knows he has discovered a way to give himself an advantage is to play and keep it to himself mean while nothing is lost by discussing his theories about winning and maybe someone will even give him some good suggestions too.
* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
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Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Feb 24, 2011
I would love to see a complete specification of your favorite Pick-3 system, one that you allude to the existence of that one could live on the winnings from, so we could put it to the test. We could form a conspiracy of thousands of LP players, focus on one state, and laugh all the way to the bank as we watch that state go bankrupt while we collectively take them down through their Pick-3!
Sounds good but it will never happen even if someone does has a winning system because all states have rules that fix their loses on pick3/4 games by limitings the amount that can be bet on any particular combination and their other games will go pari-mutual if their payouts go beyond a certain limit. The odds are such that it shouldn't ever happens but they are prepared if it does. The best thing a player can do if he knows he has discovered a way to give himself an advantage is to play and keep it to himself mean while nothing is lost by discussing his theories about winning and maybe someone will even give him some good suggestions too.
So, if it were not for these state betting restrictions, you apparently
believe that my scenario, described in jest above, is entirely possible.
Correct?
-
Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on Feb 24, 2011
So, if it were not for these state betting restrictions, you apparently
believe that my scenario, described in jest above, is entirely possible.
Correct?
What I'm saying is possible or not, states have prepared for it if it does happen. Probability of it not happening was not insurance enough of it never happening.
* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
-
Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Feb 24, 2011
"I wish I had had more faith in the other readers before investing so much time, apparently much of it wasted."
The readers are looking for helpful ideas to play lottery games and to date, you have provided none. Get with the program!
"Secondly, I HAVE spent considerable time and energy analysing previous draws in these Forums in an attempt to show people that no matter what convoluted "lotto math" they applied to past history in the Pick-3 games, they tended to win on average 1 time for every 1000 straight bet tickets they purchased."
The math was done years ago before anyone wagered on pick-3 games and the house edge is and has been 50% in almost every state lottery pick-3 game. A "the glass is half empty" type of guy like you will never understand that some players are winning something from the 50% the pick-3 games are paying out.
In the recent record MM jackpot almost all the players knew the odds against winning but still wagered $229 million in one drawing. Two players beat the odds, over 60 players won at least $250,000, and the others will buy another $1 dream in the next drawing. They play because they know somebody will eventually win millions and those reasons to play are good enough.
Do players really need someone like you to say they probably won't win the jackpot?
You make illogical assumptions of how people play, but it's your time and you can waste it any way you choose just like any poster can waste their time explaining why your information is useless.
"Here's a full year's analysis of the Powerball:"
That analysis is useless because it's based on all the Challenge players wagering $3168 PB twice a week for a year. Even though several members told you wagering that much money would be a bad bet and doubted anyone would make it BEFORE your results were known, you were tickled pink when your analysis proved it. Just another example of your illogical and unrealistic assumptions of how people play lottery games.
Next time you're in Vegas, instead of staying in your room replying to LP posts, go into the casinos and observe how players wager real money.
Stack47,
You said,
"...you will never understand that some players are winning something from the 50% the pick-3 games are paying out."
Of course there are winners! If you had really been paying attention to what I've been saying for the last 6 months, YOU might understand that because of the obscene 50% house cut, and the LOW 500/1 Jackpots, the VAST MAJORITY of Pick-3 players register a LOSS year over year!
Do yourself a favor. Either write for yourself or purchase Monte Carlo Simulation Software and observe how the Bell Shaped Curve of Pick-3 winnings shifts to the RED as you start with a minimal house edge like the one in Roulette and slowly move towards 50%. You must think offshore payouts of 90% are cash machines for the players!
As far as large jackpots go, I play the Powerball and Megamillions twice weekly and your continual blatherings of the lie that I don't understand the odds there as well are a bore.
I would love to see a complete specification of your favorite Pick-3 system, one that you allude to the existence of that one could live on the winnings from, so we could put it to the test. We could form a conspiracy of thousands of LP players, focus on one state, and laugh all the way to the bank as we watch that state go bankrupt while we collectively take them down through their Pick-3!
I'm sorry Stack47, but YOU are the one with deficiencies in the understanding of Game Theory.
--Jimmy4164
-
Jimmy,
Inferior minds want to know:
Why do you continue to play Powerball and Megamillions twice weekly when YOU know the odds?
Why haven't YOU won?
With YOUR vast knowledge of the odds, and abilities to calculate the proper trajectory and foot pounds necessary to kill a bear with a thrown tic-tac, is it really asking too much for you win Powerball with a system YOU developed?
Have you tried buying a REAL ticket?
Is it possible to show you a 'favorite' complete anything, without receiving negative feedback?
Inferior minds are now in wait mode.
-
Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Feb 24, 2011
Jimmy,
Inferior minds want to know:
Why do you continue to play Powerball and Megamillions twice weekly when YOU know the odds?
Why haven't YOU won?
With YOUR vast knowledge of the odds, and abilities to calculate the proper trajectory and foot pounds necessary to kill a bear with a thrown tic-tac, is it really asking too much for you win Powerball with a system YOU developed?
Have you tried buying a REAL ticket?
Is it possible to show you a 'favorite' complete anything, without receiving negative feedback?
Inferior minds are now in wait mode.
Jimmy would love to win as much as anyone who plays and he doesn't care what inferior minds want to know. He wants to know has anyone come up with a better way to win than luck and he dares them to prove it.
Problem is he's not the only one who wonders about such things, when PowerBall had over a hundred second prize winners when they normally expect about five they wondered, investegated and their minds were put at ease when they found out nearly all the winners got their numbers from a foture cookie. However incidents like the one mentioned in https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/228097continues to happen and probably keep them wondering and there's no benifits for anyone who has accomplished such feats explaining how they did it.
* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *