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# MATH 5/39: Stack47, Garyo1954, RL-RANDOMLOGIC VS Jimmy4164

Topic closed. 42 replies. Last post 6 years ago by RJOh.

 Page 3 of 3

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 3, 2011, 12:16 am - IP Logged

"It's amazing how you concluded my calculations were based on a one time bet of \$360."

You missed where I said "Don't bother telling us your imaginary 360 QPs would get the same results if you played them when RL made his bets because we already knew that". And I could have added 360 \$1 bets or any possible combination of bets equaling \$360 and the results would be exactly the same. Apparently I was wrong when I thought you knew 72% of 360 always equals 259.2 no matter how you divide the 360 bets.

"Unfortunately, the real problem here is that the degree of your NEED to be in control results in such an extreme NEED to believe that RL can outmaneuver the randomness of 39 lottery objects with such precision and deftness that you are willing to overlook the utter implausibility of doing it successfully for over 20 years while maintaining an 11 to 1 edge year over year."

Nobody but you and maybe Pumpi believe the results can be controlled. I'm satisfied the drawings are random and when you think about it, every player should believe they have a random chance to win or they shouldn't be buying tickets. For various reasons, system players look at a group of numbers and decide if those numbers can produce a profit and if the answer is yes, they play accordingly. There is no guarantee of showing a profit but unless the drawing is rigged, there is no reason to believe it's impossible to show a 377% profit making 8 to 15 line calulated bets 25 to 35 times a year either.

For \$8 I can use all 39 number, but after 25 tries using LP's RNG, not one time did I get 8 lines of numbers that included all 39 numbers. I'm not wasting money testing the lottery terminals RNG because I know the results will be about the same.

If you know the drawings are random and any 5 of 39 numbers can be drawn, why would you buy 8 random QPs knowing that two or more numbers won't be on your tickets?

You never explained where you got the 28% house edge for 5/39 games and even though I'm skeptical of your math because it seems odd the house edge on pick-3 and pick-4 games is almost 50% higher, but I don't want to argue so I'll give your figures some wiggle room. The fact is at a 28% house edge, the house will payoff \$720,000 for every \$1 million in wagers and that certainly gives RL and other players lots of opportunities to show a \$1000 profit after a years worth of wagers.

"you are willing to overlook the utter implausibility of doing it successfully for over 20 years while maintaining an 11 to 1 edge year over year"

The 5/39 Show Me Cash's drawings began less than 5 years ago as RL already said. This discussion is about that game so get with the program, Jimmy. No reason to spin the facts.

"<METAPHOR>You envision RL as a champion boxer with an uncanny ability to anticipate his opponent's punches and land his own with precision and power.  Wake up Stack!  You and/or RL do NOT have the benefit of the many cues available to a prizefighter.  You may THINK you do, but your field of vision does not include the eye contact and body language of your opponent; you are peering into the emptiness of a hole of infinite depth!</METAPHOR>"

For starters RL only has to outpoint his opponent to win the fight and winning on points can be the only outcome because a knockout would be the same as hitting a jackpot. RL's figures are based on 2, 3, and/or 4 number matches without a knockout jackpot. Basically your metaphor is saying a third rate pug would pay \$100 to get his brains bashed in by the champ.

You have to buy 10 QPs before you can expect to match 2 numbers and collect \$1, 103 QPs to match 3 number and collect \$10, and 3387 QPs to collect \$250 matching 4 numbers. Since we're comparing non jackpot winning statistics, you can expect to collect around 20 bucks for every \$100 you spend and far below the \$72 you expected.

I can understand someone buying 360 QPs when the jackpot is high knowing they would be extreme lucky to collect half their bet, but we're talking about 360 tickets a years to make a profit without winning the jackpot. Your comparisons suggest somebody would buy 360 QPs with no chance of winning the jackpot with an expectation of losing at least \$100 and a third rate pug without a knockout punch paying \$100 to fight when his only hope of winning is if the champ chewed off one of his ears.

"BTW, why would you shun a system with an 1110% edge?"

Because I don't live in Missouri and I moved from Ohio where I got \$300 for matching 4 numbers playing Rolling Cash 5. Besides the KY pick-3 pays \$600 to \$1 making it an even trade off for not offering a 5/39 game. Do you have any ideas that might help to make a 377% profit playing KY's pick-3?

Opps I forgot, scratch that; you're not here to help, just here to bash systems players.

Stack47,

"You never explained where you got the 28% house edge for 5/39 games..."

I did not say the house has a 28% "edge" in 5/39 games.  I said that based on the Missouri payout tables, the "Expected Value" of a \$1 MO-SM-5 ticket excluding a Jackpot is 28¢.  If you add the 25¢ expected for the Jackpot, you'll find one of these tickets is worth 53¢.  For this reason, most of your math above is irrelevent in this context, and some of it is meaningless.  If you refer to my 1st Post in this Topic you'll find that the 360 bets per year are based on RL's statement that he bets an average of 12 lines 30 times a year.  Where did you learn to read?  The calculation of Expected Value can be found here:

When I asked why you would shun RL's system when it sports an 1110% edge, you said, "Because I don't live in Missouri..."  You should reconsider; RL assures us his system will work anywhere:

You say I'm here to bash system players.  You're wrong.  I'm trying to inform system players of what they can expect from their efforts.  If you do some searching of my previous posts, you can verify this.  I'm not going to do it for you.  I'm tired of explaining myself.  If you would take the time to explain what YOUR real reason for continuously trying to bash me is, and it has merits, I might be willing to back off and let you bash each other.  I established this Topic as a place to discuss differences of opinion in other Threads.  You indicated an interest in starting a new digit counting system topic.  What's holding you back?  The only scenario that rings true at this time is that your goal is simply to wear me out through your triple team posting of nonsense, I presume, so you would then be free to pursue your agenda unencumbered.  If this is the case, I can wait.  Again, what is your agenda?

This is really getting to be a waste of time.  Is there anyone else out there reading that has an opinion on these issues that can be expressed in a civilized manner?  Actually, a short, simple post expressing a desire to know the truth would be welcome.  It would be reassuring to learn that the 3 people submitting worthless posts here are not representative of the majority of the members at LotteryPost.com.

--Jimmy4164

"No one wins. One side just loses more slowly."  Prez

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 3, 2011, 1:54 am - IP Logged

P.S.  You said,"If you know the drawings are random and any 5 of 39 numbers can be drawn, why would you buy 8 random QPs knowing that two or more numbers won't be on your tickets?"

Why Not?

I do it all the time with the Powerball.

San Angelo, Texas
United States
Member #1097
January 31, 2003
1394 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 3, 2011, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

Hi, y'all!

Seems you folks have a handle on mathematics as it applies to lottery play.

Have a question.

Instead of swapping insults, etc, why don't you direct your energy to help LP members improve their personal systems.

I have a workout I call 'Gap Strategy.'

The link contains a basic description of the workout for Texas Pick 3.  It has produced some wins in all the games, but
no jackpots or significant wins.

I'm having a 'missed by one' problem in Pick 3. If I had all the wins I missed by one number, I'd have a nice bank.

Given you guys seem to know your stuff, I would appreciate it if you would take some time, read the Gap Stragegy procedures
and offer some suggestions.

For example.

Am I wasting my time?

How can I improve the workout?

How I might solve the missed by one problem

Thanks for your time, interest and feedback.

Dallas, Texas
United States
Member #4549
May 2, 2004
1736 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 3, 2011, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

JIMMMMAY!!!!!!

Once again you've astounded yourself! Have you noticed "...the 3 people submitting worthless posts here.." include YOU?

Your posting history say, "I need a hug."

ROI? Expected values? Are you an unemployed investment counselor using LP as an online resume? Are you looking for people to quit playing lottery and invest their money with you? Jimmy, friendly advice, start selling rocks. You'll make a bundle. Because that's what people want to throw at you. It's your fault. You've watched wayyyyyyy too much World's Series of Poker on television.

Those catchy boxes that predict the possibility of each person winning aren't available to the players or the audience in attendance. Those are like little insider secrets being passed to the audience at home. No, Jimmy, those guys aren't thinking 'I've got 5.26%, that guy has 27.13%, that guy has 8.17%, he has, 11.34%.

Why do you continue to TROLL RL?

He hasn't posted in two days. Yet, you still claim he is misleading everyone. You claim the software won't produce. You claim a lot for never having seen or tried it. Good thing you have your ROI and Expected value to PROVE your claims. Now, if you could only get Gail Howard to join LP so you could disprove her stuff. And don't forget Steve Player!

RL has been stand up about the whole thing. He's said it takes a certain amount of intuitive ability based on certain traceable criteria. From the ideas he was posting, coupled with some of the tests I ran based on those ideas, he has a solid system. Gail Howard's system doesn't win EVERY TIME, Steve Players system doesn't win EVERY TIME. Why aren't you trolling the people who use those systems?

What's the matter? RL won't GIVE you the program, or the source code, or tell you the winning numbers? Why should he?

No triple team, Jimmy. We've all tried to explain to you, in our own way, from our own point of view that this is a LOTTERY SITE where people come to discuss ideas and systems to WIN the lottery. People want happy thoughts, positive vibes! To 99.9999% of the people who frequent LP, you are the Carrie Nation of lottery. But until you smash a lottery terminal, block people from buying tickets, and hand out pamphlets detailing the ROI, expected value, and all the pessimistic ideas you post, they don't care about you.

Sell rocks Jimmy. You'll get many happy returns.

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19831 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 3, 2011, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

Hi, y'all!

Seems you folks have a handle on mathematics as it applies to lottery play.

Have a question.

Instead of swapping insults, etc, why don't you direct your energy to help LP members improve their personal systems.

I have a workout I call 'Gap Strategy.'

The link contains a basic description of the workout for Texas Pick 3.  It has produced some wins in all the games, but
no jackpots or significant wins.

I'm having a 'missed by one' problem in Pick 3. If I had all the wins I missed by one number, I'd have a nice bank.

Given you guys seem to know your stuff, I would appreciate it if you would take some time, read the Gap Stragegy procedures
and offer some suggestions.

For example.

Am I wasting my time?

How can I improve the workout?

How I might solve the missed by one problem

Thanks for your time, interest and feedback.

Given you guys seem to know your stuff, I would appreciate it if you would take some time, read the Gap Stragegy procedures and offer some suggestions.

The trouble with dealing with guys who seem to know their stuff is they aren't interested in learning how to make someone else stuff work if their own stuff is working, they'll probably advise you to dump your stuff and learn theirs.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7322 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 3, 2011, 8:53 pm - IP Logged

Stack47,

"You never explained where you got the 28% house edge for 5/39 games..."

I did not say the house has a 28% "edge" in 5/39 games.  I said that based on the Missouri payout tables, the "Expected Value" of a \$1 MO-SM-5 ticket excluding a Jackpot is 28¢.  If you add the 25¢ expected for the Jackpot, you'll find one of these tickets is worth 53¢.  For this reason, most of your math above is irrelevent in this context, and some of it is meaningless.  If you refer to my 1st Post in this Topic you'll find that the 360 bets per year are based on RL's statement that he bets an average of 12 lines 30 times a year.  Where did you learn to read?  The calculation of Expected Value can be found here:

When I asked why you would shun RL's system when it sports an 1110% edge, you said, "Because I don't live in Missouri..."  You should reconsider; RL assures us his system will work anywhere:

You say I'm here to bash system players.  You're wrong.  I'm trying to inform system players of what they can expect from their efforts.  If you do some searching of my previous posts, you can verify this.  I'm not going to do it for you.  I'm tired of explaining myself.  If you would take the time to explain what YOUR real reason for continuously trying to bash me is, and it has merits, I might be willing to back off and let you bash each other.  I established this Topic as a place to discuss differences of opinion in other Threads.  You indicated an interest in starting a new digit counting system topic.  What's holding you back?  The only scenario that rings true at this time is that your goal is simply to wear me out through your triple team posting of nonsense, I presume, so you would then be free to pursue your agenda unencumbered.  If this is the case, I can wait.  Again, what is your agenda?

This is really getting to be a waste of time.  Is there anyone else out there reading that has an opinion on these issues that can be expressed in a civilized manner?  Actually, a short, simple post expressing a desire to know the truth would be welcome.  It would be reassuring to learn that the 3 people submitting worthless posts here are not representative of the majority of the members at LotteryPost.com.

--Jimmy4164

"No one wins. One side just loses more slowly."  Prez

"I said that based on the Missouri payout tables, the "Expected Value" of a \$1 MO-SM-5 ticket excluding a Jackpot is 28¢."

Most lottery websites have charts showing the chances of any ticket matching 2, 3, 4, or 5 numbers; the chance of matching 4 numbers is 1 in 3386.8, etc. on the Show Me Cash. It simply means a player can reasonably expect to match 4 numbers by purchasing 3387 QPs with a probable 353 two number matches, 33 three number matches, and a 1 in 170 chance of hitting the jackpot. And it all adds up to almost 28 cents on the dollar return.

This discussion should be about ways of showing a profit but you keep talking about expected value as if it proves it's impossible to show a profit without hitting a jackpot. What makes it worse you're trying to compare playing QPs to a system that strategically only plays at certain times. I know for a fact it's possible to make a small profit because I played 19 combos everyday for 6 weeks and after 42 straight drawings, I had a profit of \$180.

That tiny profit included three 4 number matches so it was obvious to me that I needed to tweak my system to get more 4 number matches in the future. It was a method using 14 numbers that consistently matched 2 or 3 numbers with an occasional 4. It was time consuming and a pain trying to accurately fill out four playslips and the fact it never matched all 5 numbers in 6 weeks told me it was time to take my profit and try something else.

"If you refer to my 1st Post in this Topic you'll find that the 360 bets per year are based on RL's statement that he bets an average of 12 lines 30 times a year."

If you purchase 12 QPs tonight you can expect to get 1 two number match, a 1 in 9 chance of matching 3 numbers, 1 in 282 of matching 4, 1 in 38,384 of hitting the jackpot and the expectation will be exactly the same in the next 29 times you purchase 12 QPs. These figures assume someone would play 12 QPs for 30 drawings when I doubt even a QP player would continue to play if they were out about \$100 after 10 bets. And I doubt RL would have continued to play his system has showed those results.

I don't know RL's expected value but I knew I could show a tiny profit, break about even, or play a greatly reduced cost by consistently getting 2 or 3 number matches with an occasional 4 number match.

"When I asked why you would shun RL's system when it sports an 1110% edge, you said, "Because I don't live in Missouri..."  You should reconsider; RL assures us his system will work anywhere:"

And the next sentence I said "Besides the KY pick-3 pays \$600 to \$1 making it an even trade off for not offering a 5/39 game". Which part of KY "not offering a 5/39 game" is difficult for you to understand?

"I'm trying to inform system players of what they can expect from their efforts.  If you do some searching of my previous posts, you can verify this."

Nope, you're informing QP players what to expect by using the "chances of" tables found on most state lottery websites. Using statistics from other sources doesn't make you a math genius.

"If you would take the time to explain what YOUR real reason for continuously trying to bash me is"

It wasn't bashing when myself and a number of Challenge Players said in the beginning of your "PB Challenge the details" said only a fool would wager \$3168 twice a week for a year playing only 12 numbers and 4 bonus numbers. It was impossible for me to be wrong in saying the results of group of people playing that way is worthless information when it was already established only a fool would suggest it.

I will admit there was a form of silent bashing when after your "study" was complete nobody replied.

"Is there anyone else out there reading that has an opinion on these issues that can be expressed in a civilized manner?"

Translation: I sure wish I could find one LP member out of over 100,000 that finds anything I say is interesting.

"I think the best way to solve the problem of interference in our Topics is to establish a sanctuary, so to speak, for discussion of our areas of disagreement."

Bet you wish you never asked for a 3 against one debate, eh Jimmy.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7322 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 3, 2011, 9:44 pm - IP Logged

Hi, y'all!

Seems you folks have a handle on mathematics as it applies to lottery play.

Have a question.

Instead of swapping insults, etc, why don't you direct your energy to help LP members improve their personal systems.

I have a workout I call 'Gap Strategy.'

The link contains a basic description of the workout for Texas Pick 3.  It has produced some wins in all the games, but
no jackpots or significant wins.

I'm having a 'missed by one' problem in Pick 3. If I had all the wins I missed by one number, I'd have a nice bank.

Given you guys seem to know your stuff, I would appreciate it if you would take some time, read the Gap Stragegy procedures
and offer some suggestions.

For example.

Am I wasting my time?

How can I improve the workout?

How I might solve the missed by one problem

Thanks for your time, interest and feedback.

I read your strategy, but you lost me when you suggested playing four combos straight and boxed. If you believe the gap between the first digit and the second is 2 and the gap between the second digit and third is 5, I can understand playing 249 or 360 straight but since 942, 492, 036, or 603 don't have gaps of 2 and 5, I saw no reason to play them.

If the strategy is based on boxed gaps of 2 and 5, the play should be ten boxed combos. There are only 22 boxed gaps (counting 00 that is the ten triples) so a system that could consistently match the correct boxed gap 2 out of 10 drawings would be very profitable.

It's possible I was also confused by the length of your explanations and missed how you decide which gap to play. Do you have a short version explanation?

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 4, 2011, 12:55 am - IP Logged

"I said that based on the Missouri payout tables, the "Expected Value" of a \$1 MO-SM-5 ticket excluding a Jackpot is 28¢."

Most lottery websites have charts showing the chances of any ticket matching 2, 3, 4, or 5 numbers; the chance of matching 4 numbers is 1 in 3386.8, etc. on the Show Me Cash. It simply means a player can reasonably expect to match 4 numbers by purchasing 3387 QPs with a probable 353 two number matches, 33 three number matches, and a 1 in 170 chance of hitting the jackpot. And it all adds up to almost 28 cents on the dollar return.

This discussion should be about ways of showing a profit but you keep talking about expected value as if it proves it's impossible to show a profit without hitting a jackpot. What makes it worse you're trying to compare playing QPs to a system that strategically only plays at certain times. I know for a fact it's possible to make a small profit because I played 19 combos everyday for 6 weeks and after 42 straight drawings, I had a profit of \$180.

That tiny profit included three 4 number matches so it was obvious to me that I needed to tweak my system to get more 4 number matches in the future. It was a method using 14 numbers that consistently matched 2 or 3 numbers with an occasional 4. It was time consuming and a pain trying to accurately fill out four playslips and the fact it never matched all 5 numbers in 6 weeks told me it was time to take my profit and try something else.

"If you refer to my 1st Post in this Topic you'll find that the 360 bets per year are based on RL's statement that he bets an average of 12 lines 30 times a year."

If you purchase 12 QPs tonight you can expect to get 1 two number match, a 1 in 9 chance of matching 3 numbers, 1 in 282 of matching 4, 1 in 38,384 of hitting the jackpot and the expectation will be exactly the same in the next 29 times you purchase 12 QPs. These figures assume someone would play 12 QPs for 30 drawings when I doubt even a QP player would continue to play if they were out about \$100 after 10 bets. And I doubt RL would have continued to play his system has showed those results.

I don't know RL's expected value but I knew I could show a tiny profit, break about even, or play a greatly reduced cost by consistently getting 2 or 3 number matches with an occasional 4 number match.

"When I asked why you would shun RL's system when it sports an 1110% edge, you said, "Because I don't live in Missouri..."  You should reconsider; RL assures us his system will work anywhere:"

And the next sentence I said "Besides the KY pick-3 pays \$600 to \$1 making it an even trade off for not offering a 5/39 game". Which part of KY "not offering a 5/39 game" is difficult for you to understand?

"I'm trying to inform system players of what they can expect from their efforts.  If you do some searching of my previous posts, you can verify this."

Nope, you're informing QP players what to expect by using the "chances of" tables found on most state lottery websites. Using statistics from other sources doesn't make you a math genius.

"If you would take the time to explain what YOUR real reason for continuously trying to bash me is"

It wasn't bashing when myself and a number of Challenge Players said in the beginning of your "PB Challenge the details" said only a fool would wager \$3168 twice a week for a year playing only 12 numbers and 4 bonus numbers. It was impossible for me to be wrong in saying the results of group of people playing that way is worthless information when it was already established only a fool would suggest it.

I will admit there was a form of silent bashing when after your "study" was complete nobody replied.

"Is there anyone else out there reading that has an opinion on these issues that can be expressed in a civilized manner?"

Translation: I sure wish I could find one LP member out of over 100,000 that finds anything I say is interesting.

"I think the best way to solve the problem of interference in our Topics is to establish a sanctuary, so to speak, for discussion of our areas of disagreement."

Bet you wish you never asked for a 3 against one debate, eh Jimmy.

Stack47,

Your post above explains in detail areas where we differ in our understanding of certain aspects of the probability of choosing 5 objects from 39 without replacement.  However, the fact that I think you're wrong [in part] does not mean I think you are a stupid person.  I'm not stupid either.  Based on what I've read of your postings here, you appear to have above average intelligence.  The same goes for the others in your "crew."  You're mistaken when you assume I don't respect your intelligence in general when I challenge you on one issue.

Some years ago, I lost a friend over a mathematical puzzle that you might be familiar with.  It's referred to as the Monty Hall Problem.  Until it became widely publicized, over 90% of Americans gave the wrong answer when presented with the puzzle.  PhD mathematicians got it wrong.  When I brought it up to one of my friends, a very intelligent person, he got it wrong.  When I told him initially he was in the company of over 90% of the population, he thought that was OK.  But when I told him he got it wrong, he became upset and walked away, saying he didn't want to discuss it any more.  I thought the problem was intriguing because of its counter-intuitive qualities, so I tried to cajole him into discussing it further through email.  That backfired!  I suspect he finally was convinced by the overwhelming evidence supporting my position, but to this day, he refuses to discuss it.  We hardly ever see each other any more, mostly because of the 800 pound Monty Hall standing tall between us!  The reason I bring this up is because in a very subtle way, I see a connection between the paradoxical nature of the Monty Hall Problem and the nature of our disagreements here in our different expectations for \$Winning when using different methods to choose numbers.  I hope you will take the time to read these interesting articles and watch the entertaining video animation of the problem.  Don't expect to find a strict correspondence between this problem and the (5/39) problem here.  The connection is subtle, and is related to the psychological aspects of paradoxes.

Before you rush to accuse me of changing the subject because I think I'm losing the lotto debate, please continue here.  I'm not evading anything, just trying to put an end to these silly and unproductive verbal (sometimes abusive) games we've been playing!  When you're done, I hope we can have a civil discussion about what connections you see here, if any.  We may not be able to agree in the end, but if that happens, let's try to disagree amicably.  OK?

Watch this short & funny animation first, which illustrates the problem very well.

The first link here is the site of the person who started the controversy in Parade Magazine.  The comments by all the PhD mathemeticians who eventually had to eat their words will crack you up!

http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-3-door-monty-hall-problem

--Jimmy4164

San Angelo, Texas
United States
Member #1097
January 31, 2003
1394 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 4, 2011, 11:43 am - IP Logged

I read your strategy, but you lost me when you suggested playing four combos straight and boxed. If you believe the gap between the first digit and the second is 2 and the gap between the second digit and third is 5, I can understand playing 249 or 360 straight but since 942, 492, 036, or 603 don't have gaps of 2 and 5, I saw no reason to play them.

If the strategy is based on boxed gaps of 2 and 5, the play should be ten boxed combos. There are only 22 boxed gaps (counting 00 that is the ten triples) so a system that could consistently match the correct boxed gap 2 out of 10 drawings would be very profitable.

It's possible I was also confused by the length of your explanations and missed how you decide which gap to play. Do you have a short version explanation?

Stack

When I decided to seek opinions and advice regarding Gap Strategy, there was a voice in my head that kept telling me that it was a bad idea.
My fear was that the discussion would become one where I would be asked to explain why I decided to do this or that, which would lead to a lot
of talk but no firm conclusions.

I've been trying to answer your questions, but, I don't really understand the question.

Gap Strategy is simply the creation of various data tracking streams from which a player can draw conclusions on what might happen next, and
which are the best numbers to play.

My number choices for a particular drawing are based on a variety of factors.
I'm not sure I have the ability to explain the why and wherefores in a short post.

I'm trying to determine if my 'missing by one' is due to structural or procedural defects in the workout, or simply bad choices.
My guess is that I'll just have to keep working and try and solve the problem on my own.

If I could go back and delete the post, I would.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7322 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 4, 2011, 5:37 pm - IP Logged

Stack47,

Your post above explains in detail areas where we differ in our understanding of certain aspects of the probability of choosing 5 objects from 39 without replacement.  However, the fact that I think you're wrong [in part] does not mean I think you are a stupid person.  I'm not stupid either.  Based on what I've read of your postings here, you appear to have above average intelligence.  The same goes for the others in your "crew."  You're mistaken when you assume I don't respect your intelligence in general when I challenge you on one issue.

Some years ago, I lost a friend over a mathematical puzzle that you might be familiar with.  It's referred to as the Monty Hall Problem.  Until it became widely publicized, over 90% of Americans gave the wrong answer when presented with the puzzle.  PhD mathematicians got it wrong.  When I brought it up to one of my friends, a very intelligent person, he got it wrong.  When I told him initially he was in the company of over 90% of the population, he thought that was OK.  But when I told him he got it wrong, he became upset and walked away, saying he didn't want to discuss it any more.  I thought the problem was intriguing because of its counter-intuitive qualities, so I tried to cajole him into discussing it further through email.  That backfired!  I suspect he finally was convinced by the overwhelming evidence supporting my position, but to this day, he refuses to discuss it.  We hardly ever see each other any more, mostly because of the 800 pound Monty Hall standing tall between us!  The reason I bring this up is because in a very subtle way, I see a connection between the paradoxical nature of the Monty Hall Problem and the nature of our disagreements here in our different expectations for \$Winning when using different methods to choose numbers.  I hope you will take the time to read these interesting articles and watch the entertaining video animation of the problem.  Don't expect to find a strict correspondence between this problem and the (5/39) problem here.  The connection is subtle, and is related to the psychological aspects of paradoxes.

Before you rush to accuse me of changing the subject because I think I'm losing the lotto debate, please continue here.  I'm not evading anything, just trying to put an end to these silly and unproductive verbal (sometimes abusive) games we've been playing!  When you're done, I hope we can have a civil discussion about what connections you see here, if any.  We may not be able to agree in the end, but if that happens, let's try to disagree amicably.  OK?

Watch this short & funny animation first, which illustrates the problem very well.

The first link here is the site of the person who started the controversy in Parade Magazine.  The comments by all the PhD mathemeticians who eventually had to eat their words will crack you up!

http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-3-door-monty-hall-problem

--Jimmy4164

"Don't expect to find a strict correspondence between this problem and the (5/39) problem here."

Risk/Reward.

QPs versus player picks are similar to the goat problem because it created an illusion that the odds against picking the correct door first were changed after the results of one of the other doors was known. The question in the players mind should have been, should I go with the odds and swap doors because the odds never changed or go against the odds and stick with my original guess.

Whether I purchase 19 QPs or purchase a 19 combo 14 number wheel, the overall odds are exactly the same. If I only pick one number or no numbers, I can't win, but since the beginning odds said I can only expect to win \$1 or \$2, that's all I lost. However if successfully pick 3 or 4 numbers the payoff is much greater than I could expect to win purchasing the QPs.

Personal picks are not about changing the odds, but are about getting better payoffs. I believe the confusion with QPs versus PP is assumption players can choose both methods for comparison. The reason I chose 19 PP is because that's all I intended to wager. By comparing the two bets, one is assuming the player intended to wager \$38.

United States
Member #13130
March 30, 2005
2171 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 4, 2011, 6:36 pm - IP Logged

Hi, y'all!

Seems you folks have a handle on mathematics as it applies to lottery play.

Have a question.

Instead of swapping insults, etc, why don't you direct your energy to help LP members improve their personal systems.

I have a workout I call 'Gap Strategy.'

The link contains a basic description of the workout for Texas Pick 3.  It has produced some wins in all the games, but
no jackpots or significant wins.

I'm having a 'missed by one' problem in Pick 3. If I had all the wins I missed by one number, I'd have a nice bank.

Given you guys seem to know your stuff, I would appreciate it if you would take some time, read the Gap Stragegy procedures
and offer some suggestions.

For example.

Am I wasting my time?

How can I improve the workout?

How I might solve the missed by one problem

Thanks for your time, interest and feedback.

Am I wasting my time? Just a bit.

How can I improve the workout? See above.

How I might solve the missed by one problem?

OPTION #1

Find 1 or more other systems that produce different winning pairs for the same game and drawing.

Combine commonalities. Yes, this may require sharing your toys with other kids. E.g. --

Bobby's system: 1,2,5

Peter's system: 1,3,6

Greg's system: 2,3,7

Winner: 1,2,3

OPTION #2

Switch to a game that pays something even when you miss by one.

In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7322 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 4, 2011, 7:05 pm - IP Logged

Stack

When I decided to seek opinions and advice regarding Gap Strategy, there was a voice in my head that kept telling me that it was a bad idea.
My fear was that the discussion would become one where I would be asked to explain why I decided to do this or that, which would lead to a lot
of talk but no firm conclusions.

I've been trying to answer your questions, but, I don't really understand the question.

Gap Strategy is simply the creation of various data tracking streams from which a player can draw conclusions on what might happen next, and
which are the best numbers to play.

My number choices for a particular drawing are based on a variety of factors.
I'm not sure I have the ability to explain the why and wherefores in a short post.

I'm trying to determine if my 'missing by one' is due to structural or procedural defects in the workout, or simply bad choices.
My guess is that I'll just have to keep working and try and solve the problem on my own.

If I could go back and delete the post, I would.

Gap to me means the difference between the number or digit position. Delta Numbers are a form of lottery shorthand where the results begin with the lowest number drawn followed by the gaps between the remaining numbers. Last nights Texas Cash Five numbers were 2-13-29-32-33 and the Delta version is 1-11-16-3-1. It's obvious you're doing something else.

"My fear was that the discussion would become one where I would be asked to explain why I decided to do this or that, which would lead to a lot
of talk but no firm conclusions."

Aanewyork did a nice job of explaining their pick-3 straight system in the Systems Forum, but there were many questions asking why he did this or that too.

I think the big difference is aa visibly showed what he is doing and the questions can easily be answered. There are a few posters that understand what he's doing and have helped him make it better.

"I'm trying to determine if my 'missing by one' is due to structural or procedural defects in the workout, or simply bad choices."

If you have to make choices between groups of combos, the problem is with the procedure. A good system should narrow the choices and from there you could use high percentage filters.

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19831 Posts
Offline
 Posted: March 4, 2011, 11:00 pm - IP Logged

Stack

When I decided to seek opinions and advice regarding Gap Strategy, there was a voice in my head that kept telling me that it was a bad idea.
My fear was that the discussion would become one where I would be asked to explain why I decided to do this or that, which would lead to a lot
of talk but no firm conclusions.

I've been trying to answer your questions, but, I don't really understand the question.

Gap Strategy is simply the creation of various data tracking streams from which a player can draw conclusions on what might happen next, and
which are the best numbers to play.

My number choices for a particular drawing are based on a variety of factors.
I'm not sure I have the ability to explain the why and wherefores in a short post.

I'm trying to determine if my 'missing by one' is due to structural or procedural defects in the workout, or simply bad choices.
My guess is that I'll just have to keep working and try and solve the problem on my own.

If I could go back and delete the post, I would.