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How many draws back to analyze?

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 5 years ago by feri32.

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Melbourne
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Posted: May 31, 2011, 2:49 am - IP Logged

Question of the good folk here at Lottery Post.

Is there any guide or rule for how far back into the draw history one needs to go to perform some reliable analysis?

By analysis I mean frequency of occurrence, delays since last drawn, patterns, groupings - just general stuff perhaps whith a hot ball and grouping emphasis.

And would the numbers of draws back vary according to the number of balls drawn in the lottery?

 ie say we wanted to be sure every ball had at least the chance of being drawn twice in a 5 ball lottery of 45 balls we would need to go back 18 draws ie 18 x 5 = 90 whereas with a 7 ball lottery of 45 balls one need only go back over 12 draws to ensure every ball had had the chance of being drawn twice.

But is there a need to ensure every ball should have had the chance of being drawn twice?  Perhaps one should consider three times or four times - or whatever number of times?

Apologies if this has been asked before.  If so perhaps a direction to the appropirate thread.

thanks

relowe

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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    Posted: May 31, 2011, 7:01 am - IP Logged

    Regardless of the matrix size I would think if you had the time you would want to analyze all drawings going back to the last matrix change.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      sully16's avatar - sharan
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      Posted: May 31, 2011, 8:07 am - IP Logged

      It really depends on what your looking for, and how much data, you choose to keep track of. Good Luck to you, I hope you find a method that suits your needs.

      Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

      For a lead role in a cage?

       

                                                  From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

        guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

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        Posted: June 2, 2011, 12:25 am - IP Logged

        It really depends on what your looking for, and how much data, you choose to keep track of. Good Luck to you, I hope you find a method that suits your needs.

        <<< best answer.

        I go back mnay years and just kinda sniff around for tendencies: 'these just hit, prior to that these hit, prior to that these hit..... if I go back in time will I see anything that kinda sorta looks like this, and what happened NEXT?'    --- I use that to sometimes help me decide between one number or another.

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: June 2, 2011, 9:42 pm - IP Logged

          <<< best answer.

          I go back mnay years and just kinda sniff around for tendencies: 'these just hit, prior to that these hit, prior to that these hit..... if I go back in time will I see anything that kinda sorta looks like this, and what happened NEXT?'    --- I use that to sometimes help me decide between one number or another.

          Lately I've noticed many people are talking about patterns in most lottery games. The patterns are probably hit and skip in the game history so "how far back" would depend on the time limit of the patterns.

            JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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            Posted: June 3, 2011, 12:29 am - IP Logged

            Hi,

              It depends upon the system you've created. For me, I go back as far as I need to see if the results give me a definable trend or stable boundry conditions for a filter.

              When looking at what people do at the LP, you will find that some only go ten game back, while others use every draw ever done in a particular game type.

              I guess it just depends on what you are doing.

            You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

            Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

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              Melbourne
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              Posted: June 3, 2011, 1:23 am - IP Logged

              Thanks for the info - appreciated.

              The responses in general have been premised with - What are you looking for?

              The process I have is simple but currently not all that rewarding hence the question above to see if I might have been able to sharpen it up a bit.

              I simply look for the hottest number set over the past number of selected draws. I start with say 15 numbers - any 15 numbers.  I have developed a routine to see how succesful that 15 number set would have been if it had been used as a system (full wheel) over those past selected draws. Any number in the original set that performed poorly ie may not have contributed to a prize outcome I can replace it with another number and then re run the set over the draws again. And so on, and so on. Eventually one arrives at a hot number set for those past draws. It is not uncommon to eventually find a number set that would have won a prize in every past draw of the analysis. The extension of this process being that if there are hot numbers about and they continue into the draw to come then a prize is there to be had.  Needless to say I don't play a full 15 System or full wheel, but I then use these numbers in Wheel Generator to give a set of tickets with an appropriate guarantee or at least a guarantee that I can afford to play.

              Thus my routine can find a hot number set for virtually any number of draws back - and the numbers can be quite different according to how many draws back one goes. Thus is there an optimum number of draws back to use.

              My lottery is  45 balls - 6 numbers drawn with 2 supplementary balls.  On a statistical basis 15 numbers should get me a third of the drawn balls just by chance - hopefuly garnish in a few more numbers by design and there should be a dividend.

              thanks for the responses

              relowe

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                Posted: June 3, 2011, 9:01 am - IP Logged

                Lately I've noticed many people are talking about patterns in most lottery games. The patterns are probably hit and skip in the game history so "how far back" would depend on the time limit of the patterns.

                Yes I use patterns along with other things, but only use 59 draws as that is what I like to use, to a great deal of success.

                billybouy...

                Sometimes we can't see the woods for tree's, " so we have to clear a path "

                  time*treat's avatar - radar

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                  Posted: June 3, 2011, 9:36 am - IP Logged

                  Question of the good folk here at Lottery Post.

                  Is there any guide or rule for how far back into the draw history one needs to go to perform some reliable analysis?

                  By analysis I mean frequency of occurrence, delays since last drawn, patterns, groupings - just general stuff perhaps whith a hot ball and grouping emphasis.

                  And would the numbers of draws back vary according to the number of balls drawn in the lottery?

                   ie say we wanted to be sure every ball had at least the chance of being drawn twice in a 5 ball lottery of 45 balls we would need to go back 18 draws ie 18 x 5 = 90 whereas with a 7 ball lottery of 45 balls one need only go back over 12 draws to ensure every ball had had the chance of being drawn twice.

                  But is there a need to ensure every ball should have had the chance of being drawn twice?  Perhaps one should consider three times or four times - or whatever number of times?

                  Apologies if this has been asked before.  If so perhaps a direction to the appropirate thread.

                  thanks

                  relowe

                  I try to get a much of a games history as I can when I'm searching for some pattern or other.

                  If that wasn't enough, on occasion, I've posted here and asked others to look for certain things in their own similar game.

                  In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                  Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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                    Posted: June 3, 2011, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

                    https://www.google.com/support/profiles/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=1199142&p=plusone_button_error

                    Here is one link for you to try and find the errors.

                    billybouy...

                    Sometimes we can't see the woods for tree's, " so we have to clear a path "

                      Avatar

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                      Posted: June 3, 2011, 1:30 pm - IP Logged

                      https://www.google.com/support/profiles/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=1199142&p=plusone_button_error

                      Here is one link for you to try and find the errors.

                      billybouy...

                      Here is the other.

                      https://www.google.com/support/profiles/bin/topic.py?topic=1207011

                      billybouy...

                      Sometimes we can't see the woods for tree's, " so we have to clear a path "

                        Avatar

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                        Posted: June 3, 2011, 3:38 pm - IP Logged

                        Question of the good folk here at Lottery Post.

                        Is there any guide or rule for how far back into the draw history one needs to go to perform some reliable analysis?

                        By analysis I mean frequency of occurrence, delays since last drawn, patterns, groupings - just general stuff perhaps whith a hot ball and grouping emphasis.

                        And would the numbers of draws back vary according to the number of balls drawn in the lottery?

                         ie say we wanted to be sure every ball had at least the chance of being drawn twice in a 5 ball lottery of 45 balls we would need to go back 18 draws ie 18 x 5 = 90 whereas with a 7 ball lottery of 45 balls one need only go back over 12 draws to ensure every ball had had the chance of being drawn twice.

                        But is there a need to ensure every ball should have had the chance of being drawn twice?  Perhaps one should consider three times or four times - or whatever number of times?

                        Apologies if this has been asked before.  If so perhaps a direction to the appropirate thread.

                        thanks

                        relowe

                        http://www.box.net/shared/1tlnpmi7sc

                        Try this one it's got every thing you want...

                        billybouy...

                        Sometimes we can't see the woods for tree's, " so we have to clear a path "

                          feri32's avatar - nw gnome.jpg
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                          Posted: June 7, 2011, 8:42 am - IP Logged

                          Do not analize!

                          The mathematical approach of lottery is that each draw is unique.

                          No matter what numbers were pulled before.

                          Yes, globally you can examine the pulled numbers, but do not forget, that in a 6 out of 49 games your chances are 1 to 10,068,347,520.

                          If you compare the draws from 1950, that is - in case of weekly raffles - (2011-1950) * 12 = 732 draws.

                          Now compare 732 to 10,068,347,520 -> it means that you should not waste time with math.

                          It is pure luck.

                          Spend the time with your loved ones.Hat

                          I always play random numbers

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
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                            Posted: June 7, 2011, 12:32 pm - IP Logged

                            Yes, globally you can examine the pulled numbers, but do not forget, that in a 6 out of 49 games your chances are 1 to 10,068,347,520.

                            The order the numbers are pulled doesn't matter so your chances of matching 6 are  1:13,983,816.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
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                              Posted: June 8, 2011, 2:37 am - IP Logged

                              Thanks for the info - appreciated.

                              The responses in general have been premised with - What are you looking for?

                              The process I have is simple but currently not all that rewarding hence the question above to see if I might have been able to sharpen it up a bit.

                              I simply look for the hottest number set over the past number of selected draws. I start with say 15 numbers - any 15 numbers.  I have developed a routine to see how succesful that 15 number set would have been if it had been used as a system (full wheel) over those past selected draws. Any number in the original set that performed poorly ie may not have contributed to a prize outcome I can replace it with another number and then re run the set over the draws again. And so on, and so on. Eventually one arrives at a hot number set for those past draws. It is not uncommon to eventually find a number set that would have won a prize in every past draw of the analysis. The extension of this process being that if there are hot numbers about and they continue into the draw to come then a prize is there to be had.  Needless to say I don't play a full 15 System or full wheel, but I then use these numbers in Wheel Generator to give a set of tickets with an appropriate guarantee or at least a guarantee that I can afford to play.

                              Thus my routine can find a hot number set for virtually any number of draws back - and the numbers can be quite different according to how many draws back one goes. Thus is there an optimum number of draws back to use.

                              My lottery is  45 balls - 6 numbers drawn with 2 supplementary balls.  On a statistical basis 15 numbers should get me a third of the drawn balls just by chance - hopefuly garnish in a few more numbers by design and there should be a dividend.

                              thanks for the responses

                              relowe


                              If you had software that looks back at a user selected number of drawings (for Pick-6 I prefer double the number of balls in the game, i.e.: 6/53 = 106 past draws) you would find far too many various sized sets of numbers that had plenty of four and five and even six winning numbers among them.   While picking one out of a thousand such sets is much better odds then one in millions, it is still hard to get a win.

                              Looking back is boot strapping, not really predictive.  If you take a set of hot numbers from the past and look forward you will find most draws have zero to four hot numbers.  You might do better loading a wheel with five hot, five average and five cold numbers with an eye on how they fall into the combinations.

                              BobP