Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 11, 2016, 6:48 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

How many draws back to analyze?

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 5 years ago by feri32.

Page 2 of 2
PrintE-mailLink
guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

United States
Member #41383
June 16, 2006
1969 Posts
Offline
Posted: June 8, 2011, 3:18 am - IP Logged

It also depends on just exactly WHAT you are trying to analyze.

    Avatar
    Melbourne
    Australia
    Member #5731
    July 18, 2004
    36 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: June 8, 2011, 7:35 am - IP Logged


    If you had software that looks back at a user selected number of drawings (for Pick-6 I prefer double the number of balls in the game, i.e.: 6/53 = 106 past draws) you would find far too many various sized sets of numbers that had plenty of four and five and even six winning numbers among them.   While picking one out of a thousand such sets is much better odds then one in millions, it is still hard to get a win.

    Looking back is boot strapping, not really predictive.  If you take a set of hot numbers from the past and look forward you will find most draws have zero to four hot numbers.  You might do better loading a wheel with five hot, five average and five cold numbers with an eye on how they fall into the combinations.

    BobP

    Thanks BobP,

    Yes going back too far just opens up multitude of potential hot number sets as my routine has found - too deep and it just clogs with no definition. Thanks for pointing that out and putting it into words - I couldn't decide what was happening and was wondering if I had stuffed up somewhere. So I find I am settling on only about 13 to 15 previous draws as sufficient for me to determine a number set. My routine actually tells me how many times a number has been used in the group and it also tells me how many draws back any number was last used or appeared.  I have found that numbers resulting from this type of processing are drawn from across the range of draws and all have different frequencies of appearance, thus there are effectivly numbers included that I consider can be described as being hot, cold or average including a range of delays as to when last drawn.

    Whilst all this is good for my understanding and what my routine tells me about potential number sets, it isn't helping anyone else so I must apologize - the routine is for private use. I used to do some work with dbase3 many years ago - I resurrected it a few months back to do this analysis for me.  No doubt an equivalent could be developed using Excel or similar in a more modern computer language. If some one does care to develop something similar in Excel another good feature to look for is minimal draw intervals over which prizes are won. A prize every draw can often be found.  All this suggests to me that numbers can somehow knit together over a defined period of draws with one hoping of course that this union of numbers might continue into the next draw.

    So I was hopeful there may have been some rule of thumb or even mathematical justification that could be used to optimize on past draw analysis. Hence my original question.

    And with my numbers - definitely into a wheel with a guarantee I can afford to play.

    Incidentally I don't agree with a previous poster that past draw analyisis is a waste of time.  My observation over about 40 years of buying lottery tickets is that 'designed' tickets are on average better than quick picks. But it all still gets back to a bit of luck as well - as I commented initially 15 numbers is a third of my lottery number set so just statistically I should expect to see a few numbers, and then hopefully a few more pop out by design and so when combined there is good chance of a dividend.

    relowe

      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
      Dump Water Florida
      United States
      Member #380
      June 5, 2002
      3106 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: June 9, 2011, 3:17 am - IP Logged


      Hmmm, now you're making me think about the GH B: Chart which provides a wealth of information on how many winning numbers in each draw were found among a user selectable range of recent draws just prior.

      For example, in the Florida 6/53 an average of 4.3 winning numbers can be found among the last ten draws.

      The problem is the last ten draws can contain up to 60 unique numbers and surprise, the more unique numbers the higher the individual draw having winning numbers from that group and the larger the wheel required. 

      BobP

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19831 Posts
        Online
        Posted: June 9, 2011, 4:24 am - IP Logged

        The problem is the last ten draws can contain up to 60 unique numbers and surprise, the more unique numbers the higher the individual draw having winning numbers from that group and the larger the wheel required. 

        You will have a total of 60 numbers in 10 drawings of a 6/53 game but you are limited to 53 unique ones.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

          United States
          Member #41383
          June 16, 2006
          1969 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: June 10, 2011, 2:16 am - IP Logged

          Let me point this out: this is the chart of the last 20 games, the first number is how long it had been since the number in that position had hit last. You will notice the majority of lines have at least two numbers that have hit from beyond 10 games old:

          17317817
          61915912
          35422115
          3175256
          8122321
          422111
          221951410
          4411155
          621367
          184143
          3113201
          8181167
          421233
          10812117
          18235165
          1463343
          51181412
          519571
          3277542
          2421123010

           

          If you play your games kinda like this, your odds go waay up.

          This is also one of the things people argue with me about, but there is no argument, the odds are in the table above, it speaks for itself.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19831 Posts
            Online
            Posted: June 10, 2011, 12:03 pm - IP Logged

            Let me point this out: this is the chart of the last 20 games, the first number is how long it had been since the number in that position had hit last. You will notice the majority of lines have at least two numbers that have hit from beyond 10 games old:

            17317817
            61915912
            35422115
            3175256
            8122321
            422111
            221951410
            4411155
            621367
            184143
            3113201
            8181167
            421233
            10812117
            18235165
            1463343
            51181412
            519571
            3277542
            2421123010

             

            If you play your games kinda like this, your odds go waay up.

            This is also one of the things people argue with me about, but there is no argument, the odds are in the table above, it speaks for itself.

            If you check all PB drawings going back to 10/09/02, you'll find those repeat patterns are almost as unique as the combinations, only four has ever happened more than once. One happened three times on 12/01/10 and 03/24/10 and 07/21/07 and the other three happened twice.  Along with not repeating any combination, I also avoid duplicating any repeat pattern.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

              United States
              Member #41383
              June 16, 2006
              1969 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: June 12, 2011, 2:23 am - IP Logged

              If you check all PB drawings going back to 10/09/02, you'll find those repeat patterns are almost as unique as the combinations, only four has ever happened more than once. One happened three times on 12/01/10 and 03/24/10 and 07/21/07 and the other three happened twice.  Along with not repeating any combination, I also avoid duplicating any repeat pattern.

              Jesus man, I never said to pick a repeat combo, I never even IMPLIED it.

              Go back and reread what I said and displayed.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19831 Posts
                Online
                Posted: June 12, 2011, 2:42 am - IP Logged

                Jesus man, I never said to pick a repeat combo, I never even IMPLIED it.

                Go back and reread what I said and displayed.

                Sorry I must have misunderstood you.  When you showed the patterns of when the numbers in each drawing had last hit and said "If you play your games kinda like this, your odds go way up.", I thought that what you meant.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  time*treat's avatar - radar

                  United States
                  Member #13130
                  March 30, 2005
                  2171 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: June 12, 2011, 8:44 am - IP Logged

                  Let me point this out: this is the chart of the last 20 games, the first number is how long it had been since the number in that position had hit last. You will notice the majority of lines have at least two numbers that have hit from beyond 10 games old:

                  17317817
                  61915912
                  35422115
                  3175256
                  8122321
                  422111
                  221951410
                  4411155
                  621367
                  184143
                  3113201
                  8181167
                  421233
                  10812117
                  18235165
                  1463343
                  51181412
                  519571
                  3277542
                  2421123010

                   

                  If you play your games kinda like this, your odds go waay up.

                  This is also one of the things people argue with me about, but there is no argument, the odds are in the table above, it speaks for itself.

                  Interesting. I may look further into this. Cool

                  In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                  Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

                    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                    United States
                    Member #41383
                    June 16, 2006
                    1969 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: June 14, 2011, 1:38 am - IP Logged

                    Sorry I must have misunderstood you.  When you showed the patterns of when the numbers in each drawing had last hit and said "If you play your games kinda like this, your odds go way up.", I thought that what you meant.

                    That is what I said, sorry I was being a d**k, but what I am suggesting is if you look, and you can go back FOREVER, even though most of the concentration of numbers is between past games 1-10, it shows that MOST games pick at least TWO numbers that have not hit in the last 9 games.

                    Now, 'most' is a relative term, it is not ALWAYS the case, but the tendencies speak for themselves, you can't miss them.

                    I cannot and would NEVER say 'you must pick a number from 14 games ago', but you cannot help but notice you just about HAVE to play a couple of numbers from 10-19 games ago, in that span.

                    The ONLY thing I would bet on right now is that #26 OR #28 will hit in the next 4 games, but the way things are going, maybe the next 8 games, who knows. Neither have hit in exactly 24 games, and in the past, when two numbers make it to 24, I could always count on one of them hitting within 4 games, but with the 59 number matrix, I am not sure, I don't track like I used to.

                    Also, #52 is 35 games old, #59 is 37 games old, #57 is 38 games old, #54 is 47 games old, that is ODD.

                    And #35 has not hit in 75 games, it is about as overdue as RB28, and let's not leave out #25 - it's been 54 games since it hit last. #30 - 41 games out.

                    What IS odd is looking back at my ancient matrixes, #26, 28 and 35 hit rarely back then as well.


                      United States
                      Member #93947
                      July 10, 2010
                      2180 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: June 15, 2011, 1:49 pm - IP Logged

                      Do not analize!

                      The mathematical approach of lottery is that each draw is unique.

                      No matter what numbers were pulled before.

                      Yes, globally you can examine the pulled numbers, but do not forget, that in a 6 out of 49 games your chances are 1 to 10,068,347,520.

                      If you compare the draws from 1950, that is - in case of weekly raffles - (2011-1950) * 12 = 732 draws.

                      Now compare 732 to 10,068,347,520 -> it means that you should not waste time with math.

                      It is pure luck.

                      Spend the time with your loved ones.Hat

                      feri32,

                      Comments such as yours are not what people want to hear, especially people who hope THEIR comments will prompt people to buy lottery set selection software that they have an interest in.  Check out some of my previous posts.  I'm trying to follow the advice in your last sentence above.

                      --Jimmy4164

                        feri32's avatar - nw gnome.jpg
                        New Member
                        Budapest
                        Hungary
                        Member #111903
                        June 5, 2011
                        35 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: June 16, 2011, 5:51 am - IP Logged

                        Thanks for the correction RJOh ... always good to learn from a more experienced player.

                        I always play random numbers