Quote: Originally posted by swngnblues on Dec 21, 2011
Cheating is a matter of perspective. According to your definition (my understanding based on what you've consistently posted about in the NC thread as well as other state threads since I've been here) - ANYTHING that a lottery does aside from pull balls from machines is cheating.
I argue that it is the lotteries' right to "bust patterns" and rotate ballsets to do so. I do not agree with the popular notion that the pre-draws are recorded and measured against the potential payout. THAT, in my opinion, is cheating.
Your arguments regarding statistical anomalies come across as if there is just one single ballset in use. The pre-draws on the TX site show just how often they're rotated out. Statistically, I can understand if there's a single ballset and your arguments regarding hidden data and missing structures then become valid. But there's not a single set in use - probably as few as 6 sets (1 for each machine) and just as many "spare" machines.
If you want to talk about triples in pre-draws, look back through TX - they're on almost 400 draws without one in a "live" drawing, yet I can remember at LEAST 6 times since this summer they've hit the pre-draws. That doesn't necessarily mean that the lottery is purposefully withholding them. And in almost every instance, I saw where the ballset was pulled - because out of the 4 pre-draws for one set, 2 of the same number came out. I always keep an eye on those in TX because if I'm playing something off a pattern I saw and it hits in the pre-draw, I don't bother spending my money.
Am I suggesting that the lottery is totally blameless? Absolutely not. BUT, I think you make a bigger deal out of standard practice for every lottery across the country than you need to. They don't have to give you anything, and they don't have to make it easier on you to run your statistics. That's where I disagree with the "burned lottery player" mentality.
Maybe it's because I have a finance background that I don't view things with the gimlet eye that you do. My focus is in analysis, and I understand that there are random events and other factors that go into what should otherwise be a perfect model. There are outside factors that will influence the trend you are trying to predict.
The question is - can you hit any better/win more with the data that you argue NCEL is hiding? What's your record in TX, where they release that info on a regular basis? Until you can prove to me that you do better in TX, I won't agree that NCEL is doing anything out of the ordinary causing you to lose more.
I've gone a bit off track here, but the point comes back to this - is it cheating if they are not releasing their control procedures prior to each draw? I argue no - simply because it's the constraints of the games as they are structured. TX is the anomaly, not the norm. To me, the argument that lotteries do nothing but cheat just doesn't hold water. If you honestly and truly believe that - don't play it. That simple.