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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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United States
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May 25, 2011
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Posted: October 21, 2012, 3:17 pm - IP Logged

It depends on how you define "win".......... If I buy 100 QPs and get back $2. on 0+1, I had a "win"

Overall odds of winning are approximately 1 in 40. on MM.

That means 40% of all players are "winnners"  Banana

Those are excellent odds. What other game will allow you to win big 40% of the time?  Type

Even marriages have only a 10% chance of making it through the first year.


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    Posted: October 21, 2012, 3:48 pm - IP Logged

    I define a "win" the same way lotteries define it. If after the drawing you have matched enough of the numbers drawn on a single line that your ticket is worth something then you have a "win".

    Out of MegaMillions possible 175,711,536 combinations, one is drawn which can win the jackpot. It  matches all 5 white ball numbers and the red ball number. However 4,405,085 of the other combinations will match 1 to 5 of those 6 winning numbers also and qualify for a smaller prize which makes the overall odds of winning a prize 4405086/175711536 or 1:39.8. That means that 2.5% of the tickets sold are likely winners not 40% of the players who brought them, only 1/8 or 12.5% of the players who bought 5 lines are likely to have a "win".  When you consider most players buy less than 5 lines, the percent of winners are likely to be even lower.

    Oh, ok..... I was thinking 40 tickets out of 100 pay at least a dollar...... I think that would be much better for ticket sales. They give back almost 50% on scratch games so why not be more competitive and give back 80% on jackpot games?? 40% for consolation prizes and 40% for the jackpot........... What? What? What? What? What?


      United States
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      Posted: October 21, 2012, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

      Those are excellent odds. What other game will allow you to win big 40% of the time?  Type

      Even marriages have only a 10% chance of making it through the first year.

      This is a great new concept.... even for marrage, everyone gives 80% and only keeps 20%... What?


        United States
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        Posted: October 21, 2012, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

        This is a great new concept.... even for marrage, everyone gives 80% and only keeps 20%... What?

        Yup, just the old "give and take" principle at work.


          United States
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          Posted: October 21, 2012, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

          Yup, just the old "give and take" principle at work.

          Now if we can just convince the lottery it will change that 98.9% lose to win ratio........


            United States
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            Posted: October 21, 2012, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

            I like this 4 if 4 of 8 wheel because its only 20 lines.....

            Wheel:  Pick 5 Abbreviated 4 if 4 of 8

            Tickets:  20

            Description:  Minimum 4-number match, if 4 numbers drawn fall within your set of 8 numbers.

            Input:  10, 3, 28, 9, 38, 51, 36, 27

            1. 03-09-10-28-36
            2. 03-09-10-27-28
            3. 03-10-28-38-51
            4. 03-09-10-36-38
            5. 03-09-10-27-38
            6. 03-09-10-36-51
            7. 03-09-10-27-51
            8. 03-09-10-27-36
            9. 09-10-28-38-51
            10. 10-27-28-36-38
            11. 10-27-28-36-51
            12. 10-27-36-38-51
            13. 03-09-28-38-51
            14. 03-28-36-38-51
            15. 03-27-28-38-51
            16. 03-27-28-36-51
            17. 03-09-27-36-38
            18. 09-28-36-38-51
            19. 09-27-28-38-51
            20. 09-27-28-36-51

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: October 21, 2012, 7:18 pm - IP Logged

              Oh, ok..... I was thinking 40 tickets out of 100 pay at least a dollar...... I think that would be much better for ticket sales. They give back almost 50% on scratch games so why not be more competitive and give back 80% on jackpot games?? 40% for consolation prizes and 40% for the jackpot........... What? What? What? What? What?

              You had it right when you said your odds of winning something were 1 in 40, so for every 100 QP you buy you can expect to win 2½ prizes, you should expect to do better if you're picking your own combinations.

              50% of sales goes to prizes now which include the 35% of sales that goes to the jackpot.  Don't forget the retailers get 5% of sales for selling and cashing the tickets plus a nice bonus in some states if they sell a big winner.  The lottery folks and the state get their shares out of what's left.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       


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                Posted: October 21, 2012, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

                You had it right when you said your odds of winning something were 1 in 40, so for every 100 QP you buy you can expect to win 2½ prizes, you should expect to do better if you're picking your own combinations.

                50% of sales goes to prizes now which include the 35% of sales that goes to the jackpot.  Don't forget the retailers get 5% of sales for selling and cashing the tickets plus a nice bonus in some states if they sell a big winner.  The lottery folks and the state get their shares out of what's left.

                Sounds like they only keep 40-45% which is less than what I thought it was........

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
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                  Posted: October 21, 2012, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

                  Sounds like they only keep 40-45% which is less than what I thought it was........

                  Some states have argued they don't keep enough of sales for themselves but without games like PB and MM, some folks would never play the other games.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       


                    United States
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                    Posted: October 21, 2012, 7:34 pm - IP Logged

                    Some states have argued they don't keep enough of sales for themselves but without games like PB and MM, some folks would never play the other games.

                    I think that's true, I only started playing my states Fantasy 5 after getting tired of MM/PB. lol. lol.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      Posted: October 21, 2012, 7:42 pm - IP Logged

                      I think that's true, I only started playing my states Fantasy 5 after getting tired of MM/PB. lol. lol.

                      If your Fantasy 5 game is anything like Ohio's Rolling Cash5(5/39) then 11.4% of the tickets are winners and your overall odds of winning something are 1:9.  The jackpots aren't large($100K-$500k), but if you like to win a dollar or three once in a while then it's an attractive game.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       


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                        Posted: October 21, 2012, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

                        If your Fantasy 5 game is anything like Ohio's Rolling Cash5(5/39) then 11.4% of the tickets are winners and your overall odds of winning something are 1:9.  The jackpots aren't large($100K-$500k), but if you like to win a dollar or three once in a while then it's an attractive game.

                        Bout the same odds but a 5/41 game. My state seems a bit stingy as the biggest scratch prize is $250k.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
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                          Posted: October 21, 2012, 8:09 pm - IP Logged

                          Bout the same odds but a 5/41 game. My state seems a bit stingy as the biggest scratch prize is $250k.

                          Your state like other states probably base the size of their prizes on the amount of tickets they can sell in a reasonable amount of time to pay the prizes.

                          States  like California and New York that sell $4M-$8M megemillions tickets every drawing probably easily sell enough scratch tickets in six months to have a $10M top prize.  It would probably take your state 10 years to sell that many tickets.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       


                            United States
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                            Posted: October 22, 2012, 11:48 am - IP Logged

                            Your state like other states probably base the size of their prizes on the amount of tickets they can sell in a reasonable amount of time to pay the prizes.

                            States  like California and New York that sell $4M-$8M megemillions tickets every drawing probably easily sell enough scratch tickets in six months to have a $10M top prize.  It would probably take your state 10 years to sell that many tickets.

                            No surprise to me there RJOh, even though we are among the top 10 largest cities.

                            Back in the day it took us 20 years to connect the I-10 between west Phoenix and east Phoenix.... What?


                              United States
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                              Posted: October 22, 2012, 11:49 am - IP Logged

                              17 elimination numbers for MM, Tue. Oct. 23, 2012.

                              09 11 15 16 29 33 37 38 39 43 44 46 48 49 52 53 55

                                 
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