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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: November 29, 2012, 4:14 pm - IP Logged

Ya know, I haven't been here in a while, but I just want to point out that if you put this much effort into learning a way to gamble that is actually beatable, you could have learned a lot by now - and possibly earned some decent money.

 

You could have learned to Count Cards, or be an effective Poker player, or play certain beatable progressive Video Poker machines, etc.  all of which return more than 100% of all bets to players if they are played properly.  That's something you will basically not be able to with Lottery play, and most defenietely will not with Powerball/MegaMillions.

How could we forget Boney526,

your the one who posted a losing set of numbers that lasted for 39 strait draws.


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    Posted: November 29, 2012, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

    Ronnie316 – 5+0 june 15, 2012---- 5+0 July 17, 2012 ---5+1 Aug. 10, 2012   5+0 Aug. 21, 2012   5+0 Sept. 7, 2012

    X1kosmic–  5+0 July 10, 2012 --  5+1 Sept. 18, 2012

    MC      5+0 Aug. 7, 2012   5+0 Aug. 21, 2012    5+0 Oct. 19, 2012

     

     DeadAim   5+0 Aug. 7, 2012    5+0 Sept. 7, 2012     5+0 Oct. 2, 2012

     

     Topnail – 5+0 june 26, 2012--- 5+0 July 24, 2012

     

    RJ   4+1 Aug. 10, 2012    5+0 Oct. 19, 2012

     

    Boney   GOOSE EGG

    Numbers     1, 5, 8, 12, 14, 16, 17, 19, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 42, 44, 45, 48, 49, 51, 52, 53,54

    Bonus 26


      United States
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      Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

      Set of 18 for MM. Fri. Nov. 30, 2012.

      05 08 09 12 13 22 24 26 29 37 38 42 44 47 48 49 52 53

      bonus ball 10


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        Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

        Set of 18 elimination numbers for MM. Fri. Nov. 30, 2012.

        01 09 12 20 21 23 25 34 35 36 39 40 41 45 46 48 51 55

          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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          Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:14 pm - IP Logged

          Are you trying to say you've spent your time learning to gamble professionally and now you are making all kinds of money playing the Video Poke machines?  Congratulations, sounds like you've found a new day job.

          Not at all.

           

          You can literally make something riduclously tiny like 1 or 2 bucks an hour (unless you've got a large bankroll and are very good, then you can make around 10 bucks an hour if you find the right machine).  Card counting can give you a bigger edge, but obviously the casinos don't want you doing it and you have to be sure that you're doing it correctly, otherwise you will lose.  I actually do most of my gambling with Poker, as I've been able to squeeze the most profit out of that game, relative to how often I get to play.  Still not enough to live off of.

           

          I never said I'd quit my job to do it lol.  That's ludicrous.  But playing a slightly winning game is much better than a slightly losing one.  And the opportunity on the Lottery is to play a game that's a large losing game, no matter what, for the small possibility for a huge payout.  Nothing inherently wrong with that.  Just don't spend more than you can afford to lose, and don't expect to develop a winning system.

           

          And Ronnie, I'd just like to point out that I literally just picked a set of numbers using an RNG.  I didn't care to use any method or do anything.  I was kinda just hoping mine would do as well as yours, so I could point out that a random set is just as likely to hit as any other.  It's still true, regardless of how my randomly generated set of numbers did.  You can believe whatever you want, obviously, but I really see no reason to believe that the lottery draws are anything except random.


          I'm just saying you've spent months trying to crack the lottery and determine that certain combos have better odds.  A fruitless goal, since any results you get would be statiscally insignificant for thousands and thousands of draws.  Therefore, any conclusion you came up with would be an opinion, not proof.  But I digress.  The only reason that some combos COULD have better odds is IF the balls aren't all as likely as one another to get chosen.  I see no evidence of that, and even though they are physics based, and could never be truly 100% random, there is no possible way I could capitalize on any information about the differences between the balls, so I must treat it as 100% random.  If I knew for a fact that certain known balls were lighter or heavier, or too big or posititioned somewhere where it will get stuck in the machine, then maybe I could play profitably.  Obviously, that's not the case - because even if those conditions exist - I can't possibly find out.

           

          Such logic has treated me well.  Since I stopped playing the Lottery (except in rare instances), my gambling has been profitable.  Although not enough to live off of, I turned a hobby that costed me money into one that makes me a small amount of cash.  That's good enough for me.  I have fun, and win, rather than have fun and lose.  I enjoy the lottery because I play about 5ish times a year.  If there's a really nice jackpot, I take a shot.  A bad investment, sure, but the cost is the same as a bag of chips or a soda.  No biggy.  I actually no longer consider the lottery gambling, since every other gambling activity I do couldn't significantly change my wealth in a day, but will have much larger swings up and down than 1 dollar.  And because the money I gamble with is seperate from the money I use on everything else, the 10-20 dollars I spend on lottery a year now comes from the "everything else" money.

           

          All I'm saying is that the effort to find any set of numbers that will consistently beat the lottery, or to find any system which would do the same, is not worth the effort.  For one thing, think about every game of chance which can be beat.  Say, blackjack.  Any card counter will tell you that you only risk a small portion of your capital (what you are willing to lose if everything goes wrong) on any given hand. The equation they use is (Advantage/Variance*Bankroll.) and most counters bet a fraction of this, or ignore it altogether except to make sure they don't exceed it.  So for an example, if a counter has an edge on the next hand of 1.5 percent, the variance is about 1.33 and  their bankroll is 6000, they can bet up to about 65 dollars without presenting too much risk.

           

          The variance on a game like Powerball is in the 100s of thousands, if not millions.  Even if an advantage was found, it would be a hell of a risky bet.  Say you somehow find a 20% edge.  And say the variance is 1 million.  To bet comforably and ride out the wins and losses associated with gambling, you'd need a bankroll of 5 million dollars to play 1 dollar comforably according to that criterion.



          BTW, Geez, you guys are hostile.  And I will make a couple more comments if you guys care for me to.  If you don't, I can just leave.  No problem - it doesn't bother me.  I wasn't trying to be rude.  I have found out how to win at gambling.  Find games with positive expectation, manageable risk and have good money management.  It's not much money unless you are capitalized properly, and very few people are good enough to make a career out of it.  I do think many people are good enough to make a profitable hobby out of it, if they start asking the right questions.  After all, I used to try to beat the lottery too.  After taking statistics, I became convinced that I could profit by gambling, but probably not get rich.  And I have much more fun gambling now than I did in the past.  And you are free to pursue whaever makes you happy.

           

          Just leaving my friendly advice.  Don't think you can beat the lottery.  There are gambles in this world which can be in your favor, but the state lotteries very, very rarely do.  Only during some promotions, and even then, you need to use assume that every ball has an equal chance of occuring.  I'm sure I've written of the instance where this occured in some past post (it was on the Pick 3/4 in NJ which essentially gave each ticket slightly more than 100% return for 1 draw, btw) so I won't go into exetreme detail....  I would just tell you to avoid seeing patterns where none purposefully exist.  None of these big lotteries have statiscally relevent results.

          The last thing I have to say is that in order to improve the expected value of a lottery ticket, you can choose higher numbers, since out of the roughly 20% of tickets that are self picked, many are skewed towards dates, and therefore numbers below 31.


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            Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

            Not at all.

             

            You can literally make something riduclously tiny like 1 or 2 bucks an hour (unless you've got a large bankroll and are very good, then you can make around 10 bucks an hour if you find the right machine).  Card counting can give you a bigger edge, but obviously the casinos don't want you doing it and you have to be sure that you're doing it correctly, otherwise you will lose.  I actually do most of my gambling with Poker, as I've been able to squeeze the most profit out of that game, relative to how often I get to play.  Still not enough to live off of.

             

            I never said I'd quit my job to do it lol.  That's ludicrous.  But playing a slightly winning game is much better than a slightly losing one.  And the opportunity on the Lottery is to play a game that's a large losing game, no matter what, for the small possibility for a huge payout.  Nothing inherently wrong with that.  Just don't spend more than you can afford to lose, and don't expect to develop a winning system.

             

            And Ronnie, I'd just like to point out that I literally just picked a set of numbers using an RNG.  I didn't care to use any method or do anything.  I was kinda just hoping mine would do as well as yours, so I could point out that a random set is just as likely to hit as any other.  It's still true, regardless of how my randomly generated set of numbers did.  You can believe whatever you want, obviously, but I really see no reason to believe that the lottery draws are anything except random.


            I'm just saying you've spent months trying to crack the lottery and determine that certain combos have better odds.  A fruitless goal, since any results you get would be statiscally insignificant for thousands and thousands of draws.  Therefore, any conclusion you came up with would be an opinion, not proof.  But I digress.  The only reason that some combos COULD have better odds is IF the balls aren't all as likely as one another to get chosen.  I see no evidence of that, and even though they are physics based, and could never be truly 100% random, there is no possible way I could capitalize on any information about the differences between the balls, so I must treat it as 100% random.  If I knew for a fact that certain known balls were lighter or heavier, or too big or posititioned somewhere where it will get stuck in the machine, then maybe I could play profitably.  Obviously, that's not the case - because even if those conditions exist - I can't possibly find out.

             

            Such logic has treated me well.  Since I stopped playing the Lottery (except in rare instances), my gambling has been profitable.  Although not enough to live off of, I turned a hobby that costed me money into one that makes me a small amount of cash.  That's good enough for me.  I have fun, and win, rather than have fun and lose.  I enjoy the lottery because I play about 5ish times a year.  If there's a really nice jackpot, I take a shot.  A bad investment, sure, but the cost is the same as a bag of chips or a soda.  No biggy.  I actually no longer consider the lottery gambling, since every other gambling activity I do couldn't significantly change my wealth in a day, but will have much larger swings up and down than 1 dollar.  And because the money I gamble with is seperate from the money I use on everything else, the 10-20 dollars I spend on lottery a year now comes from the "everything else" money.

             

            All I'm saying is that the effort to find any set of numbers that will consistently beat the lottery, or to find any system which would do the same, is not worth the effort.  For one thing, think about every game of chance which can be beat.  Say, blackjack.  Any card counter will tell you that you only risk a small portion of your capital (what you are willing to lose if everything goes wrong) on any given hand. The equation they use is (Advantage/Variance*Bankroll.) and most counters bet a fraction of this, or ignore it altogether except to make sure they don't exceed it.  So for an example, if a counter has an edge on the next hand of 1.5 percent, the variance is about 1.33 and  their bankroll is 6000, they can bet up to about 65 dollars without presenting too much risk.

             

            The variance on a game like Powerball is in the 100s of thousands, if not millions.  Even if an advantage was found, it would be a hell of a risky bet.  Say you somehow find a 20% edge.  And say the variance is 1 million.  To bet comforably and ride out the wins and losses associated with gambling, you'd need a bankroll of 5 million dollars to play 1 dollar comforably according to that criterion.



            BTW, Geez, you guys are hostile.  And I will make a couple more comments if you guys care for me to.  If you don't, I can just leave.  No problem - it doesn't bother me.  I wasn't trying to be rude.  I have found out how to win at gambling.  Find games with positive expectation, manageable risk and have good money management.  It's not much money unless you are capitalized properly, and very few people are good enough to make a career out of it.  I do think many people are good enough to make a profitable hobby out of it, if they start asking the right questions.  After all, I used to try to beat the lottery too.  After taking statistics, I became convinced that I could profit by gambling, but probably not get rich.  And I have much more fun gambling now than I did in the past.  And you are free to pursue whaever makes you happy.

             

            Just leaving my friendly advice.  Don't think you can beat the lottery.  There are gambles in this world which can be in your favor, but the state lotteries very, very rarely do.  Only during some promotions, and even then, you need to use assume that every ball has an equal chance of occuring.  I'm sure I've written of the instance where this occured in some past post (it was on the Pick 3/4 in NJ which essentially gave each ticket slightly more than 100% return for 1 draw, btw) so I won't go into exetreme detail....  I would just tell you to avoid seeing patterns where none purposefully exist.  None of these big lotteries have statiscally relevent results.

            The last thing I have to say is that in order to improve the expected value of a lottery ticket, you can choose higher numbers, since out of the roughly 20% of tickets that are self picked, many are skewed towards dates, and therefore numbers below 31.

            And Ronnie, I'd just like to point out that I literally just picked a set of numbers using an RNG.  I didn't care to use any method or do anything.  I was kinda just hoping mine would do as well as yours, so I could point out that a random set is just as likely to hit as any other.  It's still true, regardless of how my randomly generated set of numbers did.  You can believe whatever you want, obviously, but I really see no reason to believe that the lottery draws are anything except random.

            So what your saying is that you accept things as true based solely on the fact that YOU believe them?

              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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              Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:20 pm - IP Logged

              And Ronnie, I'd just like to point out that I literally just picked a set of numbers using an RNG.  I didn't care to use any method or do anything.  I was kinda just hoping mine would do as well as yours, so I could point out that a random set is just as likely to hit as any other.  It's still true, regardless of how my randomly generated set of numbers did.  You can believe whatever you want, obviously, but I really see no reason to believe that the lottery draws are anything except random.

              So what your saying is that you accept things as true based solely on the fact that YOU believe them?

              No, I outlined my reasoning for treating lottery draws as random in the next paragraph.  Where as you haven't given any good reasoning for why they are 1) not random, and 2) vulnerable to advantegous play.

               

              It's cool though.  Again I'm just giving my .02 cents, feel free to ignore it as I suspect you will.


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                Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:26 pm - IP Logged

                No, I outlined my reasoning for treating lottery draws as random in the next paragraph.  Where as you haven't given any good reasoning for why they are 1) not random, and 2) vulnerable to advantegous play.

                 

                It's cool though.  Again I'm just giving my .02 cents, feel free to ignore it as I suspect you will.

                So your saying there is no such thing as probability, because the draws are random?

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                  Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:29 pm - IP Logged

                  So your saying there is no such thing as probability, because the draws are random?

                  No.  What?

                   

                  Random as in the probabilities are constant and independent of eachother.  They exist, but do not change in any predictable manner - as is the nature of indendent events.

                   

                  I'm not really sure how you came to the conclusion I said that.  What are you referring to, I could clarify any statement that seemed that way.


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                    Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:37 pm - IP Logged

                    No.  What?

                     

                    Random as in the probabilities are constant and independent of eachother.  They exist, but do not change in any predictable manner - as is the nature of indendent events.

                     

                    I'm not really sure how you came to the conclusion I said that.  What are you referring to, I could clarify any statement that seemed that way.

                    Thats cool, but the stanch "1 in 175 millioners" alway rule out the reality of probability that can be used to consistently get BETTER ODDS when playing the lottery.

                      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                      Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:38 pm - IP Logged

                      I think I understand why my statements were misinterpreted.  It's tough for me to both summarize, and clarify, so please forgive me.  I had already written a wall of text, so didn't think I should add more.

                       

                      For this example, I am going to assume that nobody is cheating.

                      Say you had a roulette wheel.  When you spin it, each individual number should have a 1 in 38 chance, and each event should be random and independent of past results.  Obviously, in an optimum world this would be true.  In reality, the probabilities are probably slightly different than 1 in 38, although very close, and it's completely possible that certain dealers spin the ball in such a way that creates a slight non randomness.

                       

                      So how do you treat this game if you had to play?  Given no knowledge of the wheel, you would assume that every single number had a 1/38 chance.  Since the odds pay it off as if it was 1/36, the edge is 2/38 or 5.26%.  If you sit there and record thousands of spins (if I remember accurately 20000 spins for 99.5% confidence) then you could determine if any of the numbers are biased on that wheel, but without that information, you cannot conclude certain numbers to be more likely than others.  If 

                       

                      Now imagine that you find a biased wheel, that heavily favors a number.  But it also looks the same as 27 other wheels, and they rotate.  It would essentially be impossible to gain any advantage without being able to distinguish which wheel you were playing against.

                       

                      That's the same thing with the lottery.  In reality, some balls probably do have a slightly higher probability on any given night.  But it's impossible to determine which one that is from the Lottery terminal.  Therefore, I conclude that I must treat each combination as equally likely.


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                        Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:44 pm - IP Logged

                        I appreciate your conclusions, but as I said it does not necessarily make them facts.......

                        I have recently been able to successfully eliminate 20 numbers from the PB pool about 50% of the time (using RNG numbers, just like the stinky numbers you used to play "One in 39")reducing my odds 10 fold....

                          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                          Posted: November 29, 2012, 5:57 pm - IP Logged

                          The probability of matching 5 of 39 numbers in a 59 number draw is roughly 11.5%, so getting it right about 50% of the time is probably a quirk.  If you've been able to consistantly pull that off over many, many, many draws than it may be relevant, although it's still tecnically possible.

                           

                          I've seen my share of strange things.  What's the chance that I, the two other players at the table, and the dealer would all get a blackjack?  Coupled with the count being slightly negative?  Tiny.  Still happened.  What are the odds that I'd write down, the first time I played mega millions, a 3rd ticket to buy, mashing up the two QPs, chicken out and actually had the line a wrote match the first 5 numbers?  Again, that happened.

                           

                          In the world of gambling, results aren't necessarilly all that conclusive, especially since humans tend to have selective memory.


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                            Posted: November 29, 2012, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

                            The probability of matching 5 of 39 numbers in a 59 number draw is roughly 11.5%, so getting it right about 50% of the time is probably a quirk.  If you've been able to consistantly pull that off over many, many, many draws than it may be relevant, although it's still tecnically possible.

                             

                            I've seen my share of strange things.  What's the chance that I, the two other players at the table, and the dealer would all get a blackjack?  Coupled with the count being slightly negative?  Tiny.  Still happened.  What are the odds that I'd write down, the first time I played mega millions, a 3rd ticket to buy, mashing up the two QPs, chicken out and actually had the line a wrote match the first 5 numbers?  Again, that happened.

                             

                            In the world of gambling, results aren't necessarilly all that conclusive, especially since humans tend to have selective memory.

                            Ok.... And 6 other people getting 5+0 multple times and you getting ZERO was also a "quirk" Im sure.


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                              Posted: November 29, 2012, 8:59 pm - IP Logged

                              Im happy for you that you feel so confident to stand in judgement over humankind.... 

                              But it still doesnt make what you believe onto fact.......

                                 
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