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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: November 29, 2012, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

I think for some people the only reality they need is what they learn in a class room.....


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    Posted: November 29, 2012, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

    The probability of matching 5 of 39 numbers in a 59 number draw is roughly 11.5%, so getting it right about 50% of the time is probably a quirk.  If you've been able to consistantly pull that off over many, many, many draws than it may be relevant, although it's still tecnically possible.

     

    I've seen my share of strange things.  What's the chance that I, the two other players at the table, and the dealer would all get a blackjack?  Coupled with the count being slightly negative?  Tiny.  Still happened.  What are the odds that I'd write down, the first time I played mega millions, a 3rd ticket to buy, mashing up the two QPs, chicken out and actually had the line a wrote match the first 5 numbers?  Again, that happened.

     

    In the world of gambling, results aren't necessarilly all that conclusive, especially since humans tend to have selective memory.

    The nice thing about the forum is that your losing numbers are forever recorded,,,,,,

    along with everyone elses winning numbers........


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      Posted: November 29, 2012, 9:07 pm - IP Logged

                       Bed

        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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        Posted: November 29, 2012, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

        The nice thing about the forum is that your losing numbers are forever recorded,,,,,,

        along with everyone elses winning numbers........

        If you and five friends walked up to a Blackjack table, and all of you placed a bet, and everybody recieved a blackjack except one of your friends, would you say that "he is worse at Blackjack"?

         

        That's the conclusion your logic would lead to.  Of course it is heavily flawed logic.

          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
          New Jersey
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          Posted: November 29, 2012, 9:54 pm - IP Logged

          Im happy for you that you feel so confident to stand in judgement over humankind.... 

          But it still doesnt make what you believe onto fact.......

          Wow....

           

          uhmm I really can't respond sincerely to this.  I am confident in my ability to understand the math behind probability theory.  I do think it is fact.  Not because "I believe it" but because reality has proven it.

           

          You can talk about how nothing's factual but that won't help you with anything.  Good luck, you'll need it.  You haven't even made the argument of how or why the numbers would be anything other than random, and how you could possibly take advantage of it.

           

          Your argument is fallicous at it's core.  I see no need to make the argument anymore to someone that clearly disregards basic probability theory.  Which, by the way, is just as factual as the theory of gravity.  Call it a theory if you want, but it's the most applicable theory we have, and is FACTUAL.  It's only "not factual" in the same sense that nothing is proveable to everybody.... There will always be people claiming that true things aren't facts.  I won't accept everything I hear "in a classroom" is fact, but you'd have to be crazy to go to school and constantly think "no that's not true.  1+1 isn't 2 just because my teacher says so.  I think it's 3."

           

          You have to use LOGIC to discern what is useful information, and what is nonsense.

            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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            Posted: November 29, 2012, 10:23 pm - IP Logged

            And I don't know what you mean when you say my judgement over mankind, other than that your frustrated and have no logical recourse, so instead you hurl insults my way.

             

            That's fine.  Just so you know, pretty much everyone outside of this forum would agree with me, that the lottery has an edge over you - not the other way around.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: November 30, 2012, 8:53 am - IP Logged

              And I don't know what you mean when you say my judgement over mankind, other than that your frustrated and have no logical recourse, so instead you hurl insults my way.

               

              That's fine.  Just so you know, pretty much everyone outside of this forum would agree with me, that the lottery has an edge over you - not the other way around.

              "pretty much everyone outside of this forum would agree with me"

              Pretty much everyone in this forum don't care what those outside the forum think. Thumbs Up

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

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                Posted: November 30, 2012, 9:30 am - IP Logged

                Boney, you say that what Ronnie is doing is pointless but how do you explain the amount of times he's gotten 5+0? He's pretty good at eliminating and picking numbers. He is decreasing the odds of winning from 1 in 175,000,000 to perhaps 1 in 40,000,000 or maybe even less. Furthermore, I think there are trends and you can further filter the lottery by.

                For example, let's take a look at the last PB drawing:

                11/28/2012      5 16 22 23 29 6

                You have one number in the 0 category (5), you have one number in the teens (16), three numbers in the twenties (22,23,29) and the powerball in the 0 category (6).  You have 01222-0.

                The las time in PowerBall the pattern 01222 (not even counting the powerball) was on

                7/28/2010      1 11 20 25 27 2       01222-0 (although you can see the powerball there was also in the 0 category).

                 

                So what does all of this mean? It means that if you pick your own number or get an easy pick for the new PB drawing, for this Saturday, and you get numbers with a 01222 pattern (say 5,12,21,28,29), what are your chances of winning? Based on my research the chances of that same pattern happening are very slim. I have been able to find two drawings back to back with the same pattern however I think it was some kind of fluke.

                 

                3/25/2009 10 20 23 47 54 26 12245-2

                 

                3/21/2009 19 23 27 49 52 21 12245-2

                 

                SO basically I think that instead of picking the right numbers, you simply eliminate numbers and that's what Ronnie has been doing.Coffee

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                  Posted: November 30, 2012, 9:44 am - IP Logged

                  Also, Powerball lists all of the winning number for the whole history of the game and I have been able to analyze the drawings. Mega Millions, however, only shows the last 25 drawings. Does anyone have access to all of the MM drawings so I can analyze all of the results? Or better yet, has someone down this before? And analyzed the MM numbers into the 01234-0 pattern?


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                    Posted: November 30, 2012, 10:18 am - IP Logged

                    And I don't know what you mean when you say my judgement over mankind, other than that your frustrated and have no logical recourse, so instead you hurl insults my way.

                     

                    That's fine.  Just so you know, pretty much everyone outside of this forum would agree with me, that the lottery has an edge over you - not the other way around.

                    Your the one who said humans have "selective memory" .......... 

                    All I'm saying is chosen numbers have BETTER ODDS over RNG and you already helped prove that. I'm sorry that you cant run that through you logic machine and get a logical reason........ 

                    Some things are learned through practical application and ultimately CHANGE what is taught in the sacred  class room where your reality comes from.


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                      Posted: November 30, 2012, 10:36 am - IP Logged

                      Set of 11 for live play MM. Fri. Nov. 30, 2012.

                      05 08 13 22 24 26 37 38 42 44 47

                      bonus ball 10


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                        Posted: November 30, 2012, 10:36 am - IP Logged

                        Wheel:  Pick 5 Abbreviated 4 if 4 of 11

                        Tickets:  66

                        Description: Minimum 4-number match, if 4 numbers drawn fall within your set of 11 numbers.

                        Notes:  Highly balanced (Each number appears 30 times)

                        Input:  8, 47, 5, 24, 37, 13, 44, 26, 22, 38, 42

                        1. 05-08-24-38-47
                        2. 05-08-37-44-47
                        3. 05-08-13-26-47
                        4. 05-08-22-42-47
                        5. 08-22-24-37-47
                        6. 08-13-24-44-47
                        7. 08-24-26-42-47
                        8. 08-13-37-42-47
                        9. 08-26-37-38-47
                        10. 08-13-22-38-47
                        11. 08-22-26-44-47
                        12. 08-38-42-44-47
                        13. 05-08-13-24-37
                        14. 05-08-24-42-44
                        15. 05-08-22-24-26
                        16. 05-08-26-37-42
                        17. 05-08-22-37-38
                        18. 05-08-13-22-44
                        19. 05-08-13-38-42
                        20. 05-08-26-38-44
                        21. 08-24-26-37-44
                        22. 08-24-37-38-42
                        23. 08-13-24-26-38
                        24. 08-13-22-24-42
                        25. 08-22-24-38-44
                        26. 08-13-37-38-44
                        27. 08-13-22-26-37
                        28. 08-22-37-42-44
                        29. 08-13-26-42-44
                        30. 08-22-26-38-42
                        31. 05-24-26-37-47
                        32. 05-13-24-42-47
                        33. 05-22-24-44-47
                        34. 05-13-22-37-47
                        35. 05-37-38-42-47
                        36. 05-13-38-44-47
                        37. 05-26-42-44-47
                        38. 05-22-26-38-47
                        39. 13-24-37-38-47
                        40. 24-37-42-44-47
                        41. 13-22-24-26-47
                        42. 24-26-38-44-47
                        43. 22-24-38-42-47
                        44. 13-26-37-44-47
                        45. 22-37-38-44-47
                        46. 22-26-37-42-47
                        47. 13-22-42-44-47
                        48. 13-26-38-42-47
                        49. 05-24-37-38-44
                        50. 05-22-24-37-42
                        51. 05-13-24-26-44
                        52. 05-13-22-24-38
                        53. 05-24-26-38-42
                        54. 05-13-37-42-44
                        55. 05-13-26-37-38
                        56. 05-22-26-37-44
                        57. 05-13-22-26-42
                        58. 05-22-38-42-44
                        59. 13-22-24-37-44
                        60. 13-24-26-37-42
                        61. 22-24-26-37-38
                        62. 13-24-38-42-44
                        63. 22-24-26-42-44
                        64. 13-22-37-38-42
                        65. 26-37-38-42-44
                        66. 13-22-26-38-44


                          United States
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                          Posted: November 30, 2012, 10:37 am - IP Logged

                          For the maddog challenge I will add the "48"

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: November 30, 2012, 12:13 pm - IP Logged

                            Also, Powerball lists all of the winning number for the whole history of the game and I have been able to analyze the drawings. Mega Millions, however, only shows the last 25 drawings. Does anyone have access to all of the MM drawings so I can analyze all of the results? Or better yet, has someone down this before? And analyzed the MM numbers into the 01234-0 pattern?

                            USAMega has the complete history of both games including when MegaMillions was known as BigGame.  BigGame changed its name to MegaMillions when it added Ohio and some other states in May of 2002.  I have no idea of what you mean when you write analyzed numbers into the 01234-0 pattern.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                              Posted: November 30, 2012, 1:00 pm - IP Logged

                              You didn't prove anything.

                               

                              There simply haven't been enough draws in the history of Powerball to make anything you've done actually constitute proof.

                               

                              I'm out of here.  You guys will just say that things that are facts aren't, and say things like you proved something which you didn't.

                               

                              W.E. good luck.  I know I will continue having consistent success gambling, and I don't plan on changing my behavior.  I hope you realize how flawed your thinking is before you start putting real money down, because if you don't, it will probably cost you heavily.

                                 
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