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Lotto Strategy - Odds of winning vs Chances of winning

Topic closed. 19 replies. Last post 4 years ago by butch2030.

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butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
Elgin, IL
United States
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January 1, 2009
1221 Posts
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Posted: January 18, 2013, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

What are the odds of winning 6 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 : 13,983,816

What are the odds of winning 5 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 : 1,906,884

What are the odds of winning 4 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 :  211,876

These are the mathematical odds of winning the lotto with 49 balls .

Take the New Jersey Pick 6 game.  The state post that  base on historial data on actual payouts the odds are:

Winning 6 of 6 = 1 : 13, 983,816

Winning 5 of 6 = 1 : 54,201

Winning 4 of 6 = 1 : 1,032

I say your chances of winning are alot greater if you know what combinations to play in a given game.  I just did a workup on the above mentioned game.  Period covered was 01/02/2003 thru 01/17/2013.  There have been 1,048 drawings.  I have found 232 groups of combinations which make up 646 of the 1,048 drawings in the time frame covered or 61.64% of the total drawings in the time frame.  The mathematical odds of winning 4 of 6 in a 49 ball game is 1 : 211,876.  This is the odds if you buy a quick pick.  Here is my Group 6 of the 232 groups I found in the NJ Pick 6 game.  I ask you the question - Would you buy a Quick Pick or would you play the numbers 16 28 32 35 41 48.  Keep in mind that there have only been 1,048 drawings in the time frame mentioned (1,048 vs the odds 211,876).

*************        GRP
2003-01-20 128323541486
2007-12-27 1628343542486
2008-07-14 221283235416
2010-08-12 2728323541446
2011-09-12 1628323547486
2012-10-25 1132353841486
*************        

 You can view/download all my combos & patterns found in the NJ Pick 6 game - Go To -  https://www.box.com/s/1y245j4cnkn82igz9swt

Visit my Blog on LP for other games containing combos & patterns.

You can either waste your money or play smart with Free Information.


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    January 3, 2013
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    Posted: January 18, 2013, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

    Do this for virginia cash 5.     5 of 34 balls. Or Wisconsin 5 of 31

      butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
      The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
      Elgin, IL
      United States
      Member #68867
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      Posted: January 18, 2013, 2:47 pm - IP Logged

      Do this for virginia cash 5.     5 of 34 balls. Or Wisconsin 5 of 31

      Sorry, I stopped doing the Pick 5 games - got to be too much of a hassle & not worth my time & effort.   I realized, that if I am going to play, I will put my time & efffort where the money is. 

      If you go to my Blog, you will see that I have a site for the GA & VA Win 4 life game & the WI Megabucks game.

      Good Luck & Best Wishes To You.

      P.S.  Your beginning to sound like an old hag - Do this,  Do that.  What ever happen to Please? & Can you? & Thank You!!!   As I am doing this for all members of LP in my spare time & I am doing it at no expense to you.

        BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
        Dump Water Florida
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        June 5, 2002
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        Posted: January 18, 2013, 2:55 pm - IP Logged

        "What are the odds of winning 5 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 : 1,906,884"

        Actually that's the odds of winning 5 of 5 in a 49 ball game. 1:1,906,844

        BobP

          butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
          The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
          Elgin, IL
          United States
          Member #68867
          January 1, 2009
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          Posted: January 18, 2013, 3:59 pm - IP Logged

          My error, the state had the correct odds.

          What are the odds of winning 6 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 : 13,983,816

          What are the odds of winning 5 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 : 54,201

          What are the odds of winning 4 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 :  1,032

            butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
            The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
            Elgin, IL
            United States
            Member #68867
            January 1, 2009
            1221 Posts
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            Posted: January 18, 2013, 4:10 pm - IP Logged

            "What are the odds of winning 5 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 : 1,906,884"

            Actually that's the odds of winning 5 of 5 in a 49 ball game. 1:1,906,844

            BobP

            I was wrong with the 5 of 6 in a 49 ball game,  instead of 1,906,884, it should have been 54,201.

            I tried two different calculators on the net & they show the odds of winning 5 of 5 in a 49 ball game as 1 : 1,906,884.

              butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
              The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
              Elgin, IL
              United States
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              Posted: January 18, 2013, 4:44 pm - IP Logged

              Keep in mind that there have only been 1,048 drawings in the time frame mentioned (1,048 vs the odds s/b 1,032).  The point I was trying to bring out here  is that the odds of hitting 4 of 6 numbers is 1 : 1,032.  Instead of 1,032 drawings, I have 1,048 drawings in which I have 232 Groups that contain 646 drawings of the total of 1,048.  To be part of the critiera of the 646 drawings you must match 4 of 6 of the same numbers more than once in the data base of all the drawings.  It's like saying instead of odds of 1 : 1032,  I have come up with odds of 646 : 1048.   If everything was random, this would not occur. The reason this occurs is because machines are man-made & the drawings are not in a vacumm where everything is suppose to be equal.  From the time they turn the switch on until the last ball comes out - Entire process - Less than 15 seconds - Combinations & patterns do form...................

                helpmewin's avatar - dandy
                u$a
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                Posted: January 18, 2013, 6:08 pm - IP Logged

                Thanks for the infoSmiley

                Let it Snow Snowman

                  SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                  Posted: January 18, 2013, 6:41 pm - IP Logged

                  My error, the state had the correct odds.

                  What are the odds of winning 6 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 : 13,983,816

                  What are the odds of winning 5 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 : 54,201

                  What are the odds of winning 4 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 :  1,032

                  61     0,000000072 1:13983816
                  5258     0,000018450 1:54200,84
                  413545     0,000968620 1:1032,4
                  3246820     0,017650404 1:56,66
                  21851150     0,132378029 1:7,55
                  15775588     0,413019450 1:2,42
                  06096454     0,435964976 1:2,29

                  €€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€

                    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                    Posted: January 18, 2013, 6:43 pm - IP Logged
                    Full system eight numbers
                    6903     0,000002002  1:499422
                    574046     0,000164190  1:6090,51
                    41851150     0,004104745  1:243,62
                    319251960     0,042689349  1:23,43
                    291446810     0,202774407  1:4,93
                    1193344684     0,428723032  1:2,33
                    0145008513     0,321542274  1:3,11

                      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                      Posted: January 18, 2013, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

                      "What are the odds of winning 5 of 6 in a 49 ball game?  1 : 1,906,884"

                      Actually that's the odds of winning 5 of 5 in a 49 ball game. 1:1,906,844

                      BobP

                      51     0,000000524  1:1906884
                      4220     0,000115371  1:8667,65
                      39460     0,004960973  1:201,57
                      2132440     0,069453622  1:14,4
                      1678755     0,355949811  1:2,81
                      01086008     0,569519698  1:1,76
                        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                        Posted: January 18, 2013, 7:06 pm - IP Logged
                        Full system eight numbers
                        6903     0,000002002  1:499422
                        574046     0,000164190  1:6090,51
                        41851150     0,004104745  1:243,62
                        319251960     0,042689349  1:23,43
                        291446810     0,202774407  1:4,93
                        1193344684     0,428723032  1:2,33
                        0145008513     0,321542274  1:3,11

                        I have to check that one again, I didn't use the table for long time.
                        The table is correct. I Agree!

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
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                          March 24, 2001
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                          Posted: January 19, 2013, 12:00 pm - IP Logged

                          I think butch2030 was trying to explain odds and chances aren't the same things.  For example in 6 of 49 game your odds of matching 3 are 1:57 but your overall chances of matching 3 or better are 1:54, so your chances of matching 3 are better than your odds of matching 3.

                          You can test this by comparing the winning drawing with the previous 54 drawings of any 6/49  games for 10 drawings or more and you will average a match 3 or better the same number of times or more.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

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                            Posted: January 19, 2013, 3:47 pm - IP Logged

                            Do this for virginia cash 5.     5 of 34 balls. Or Wisconsin 5 of 31

                            Your response confused me for a second, until I realized you changed your avatar to rdgnr's...

                            Ugh, hate it when that happens! lol

                            "If you can DREAM it, you can DO it!"- Walt Disney

                              SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                              Posted: January 19, 2013, 4:10 pm - IP Logged

                              I think butch2030 was trying to explain odds and chances aren't the same things.  For example in 6 of 49 game your odds of matching 3 are 1:57 but your overall chances of matching 3 or better are 1:54, so your chances of matching 3 are better than your odds of matching 3.

                              You can test this by comparing the winning drawing with the previous 54 drawings of any 6/49  games for 10 drawings or more and you will average a match 3 or better the same number of times or more.

                              p(all cases) = 1

                              Odds and chances is the same.

                              If you throw a dice and you are looking for the probability of throwing a 4 or 5 or 6, you get 3 in 6.

                              p(4|5|6) = 0.5 or 1:2, but it truly is 3:6 in one roll.

                              You have odds for outcome, and you might calculate odds of winning a certain amount of money.
                              Winning a certain amount of money is an estimation because the payout can vary and there are taxes.

                              As we are players and programmers, we look for making winning predictions, this means winning more than we were spending.
                              It is probable to loose half of the money, but you can win and you can also loose all of it.

                              While winners are mostly laughers, loosers are often whiners and sore loosers.

                              Indeed you could calculate the odds of winning 3/6 for a 6 out of 49, playing the same combinations over 10 drawings.
                              You can win and you can loose. I posted comparing drawings with Excel.