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Do you see PB jackpots of $300 mil plus a fluke going forward with California joining in soon?

Topic closed. 63 replies. Last post 4 years ago by KY Floyd.

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RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
NY
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Posted: April 2, 2013, 1:08 am - IP Logged

Cali spends the most on MM, so i can't imagine what their PB sales will be. Jackpots will be huge if no one wins.

    dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
    Oklahoma
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    Posted: April 2, 2013, 6:46 am - IP Logged

    "Perhaps more States joining in will make huge jackpots a thing of the past"

    huge jackpots will never be a thing of the past. If the jackpot keeps being won too often, the lottery officials can always change the matrix. They could go from 35 PB to 40 PB. Most casual lottery players know next to nothing about the lottery and they wouldn't notice the difference.

    I Agree!

    I Love Pink & Green 1908

      dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
      Oklahoma
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      Posted: April 2, 2013, 6:47 am - IP Logged

      The jackpots will rise larger and faster on average but will be won before reaching stratospheric levels.

      Unless there is a matrix change.

      Which would suck.

      I hope they don't change the matrixMad

      I Love Pink & Green 1908

        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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        Posted: April 2, 2013, 10:12 am - IP Logged

        I hope they don't change the matrixMad

        Me too.

          noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
          Bay Area - California
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          Posted: April 2, 2013, 10:19 am - IP Logged

          Me too.

          Lets hope so rdgrnr- they have a tendency to do whatever they " think"  is  best to their best advantage of course. Like raising the PB ticket price from $1.00 to $2.00.
          Did the lottery Committee run that idea pass the playing public for their consent before implementing the idea?- if they did, l did not get the Memo, did you?
          Oogle

            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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            Posted: April 2, 2013, 10:23 am - IP Logged

            Lets hope so rdgrnr- they have a tendency to do whatever they " think"  is  best to their best advantage of course. Like raising the PB ticket price from $1.00 to $2.00.
            Did the lottery Committee run that idea pass the playing public for their consent before implementing the idea?- if they did, l did not get the Memo, did you?
            Oogle

            Nope.  Twitch

              Romancandle's avatar - moon
              Upacreek
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              Posted: April 2, 2013, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

              I'm sure the bean counters got this all figured out... raise PB from $1 to $2 and then add California to the mix later... all part of the grand plan.

              What effect does a matrix change have on the bottomline in terms of revenue to the states/lotteries etc.?  Will they rake in more money with a matrix change?

              -RC

                rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                Posted: April 2, 2013, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

                I'm sure the bean counters got this all figured out... raise PB from $1 to $2 and then add California to the mix later... all part of the grand plan.

                What effect does a matrix change have on the bottomline in terms of revenue to the states/lotteries etc.?  Will they rake in more money with a matrix change?

                Yeah, it'll be harder to win and pots will get bigger which will make more people play and so on and so on and so on.

                Which would suck.

                  noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                  Bay Area - California
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                  Posted: April 2, 2013, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

                  The jackpots will rise larger and faster on average but will be won before reaching stratospheric levels.

                  Unless there is a matrix change.

                  Which would suck.

                  jackpots can become so huge that it would annoy people. What would be the point of having a $700 mil jackpot ( if only) and have ONE winner?

                  With a jackpot that size, one would think it would be won by a pool at best, then you hear its been won by Charlie Sheen or some wealthy dude who does not need the money to begin with.

                    GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                    Posted: April 3, 2013, 5:36 am - IP Logged

                    How many states offer the game is mostly irrelevant. What really matters is the odds of the game. At 175 million to 1, there will be an average of one winning ticket for every 175 million tickets sold. Selling 175 million tickets results in a cash jackpot of about  $112 million, or about $180 million advertised.

                    Adding more players to the game will result in selling more tickets for each drawing, so the odds of a winner for the 7th, 8th, and 9th drawing of each run will be higher than in the past, but the jackpots will increase faster than they used to. Once the jackpots get  up there the extra 30 million potential players will mean even bigger jumps when it rolls.

                    I think this post nailed it.

                    Selling more tickets for each drawing (by adding California to the mix) means greater "coverage" of the 175 million possible combinations of six numbers. 

                    Another way to describe what I wrote above is, the more tickets that are sold, a larger percentage of all the possible 6 digit combinations is generated or "become covered", and selling more tickets is what causes the jackpot to rise. 

                    California is the most populated state in The U.S., so just like New York, there'll be frequent JP winners in Ca.

                    About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

                      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                      Posted: April 3, 2013, 10:50 am - IP Logged

                      jackpots can become so huge that it would annoy people. What would be the point of having a $700 mil jackpot ( if only) and have ONE winner?

                      With a jackpot that size, one would think it would be won by a pool at best, then you hear its been won by Charlie Sheen or some wealthy dude who does not need the money to begin with.

                      Please, anybody but Charlie Sheen.

                      ANYBODY!

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                        Kentucky
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                        Posted: April 3, 2013, 11:26 am - IP Logged

                        I think this post nailed it.

                        Selling more tickets for each drawing (by adding California to the mix) means greater "coverage" of the 175 million possible combinations of six numbers. 

                        Another way to describe what I wrote above is, the more tickets that are sold, a larger percentage of all the possible 6 digit combinations is generated or "become covered", and selling more tickets is what causes the jackpot to rise. 

                        California is the most populated state in The U.S., so just like New York, there'll be frequent JP winners in Ca.

                        California ranks 33 in per capita lottery spending averaging $108.77 a year compared to Massachusetts that averages $860.70. The reason the Massachusetts players spend almost 8 times more each year is probably because 72% of their ticket sales are paid back in prizes and the California lottery only pays back 53% in prizes. A good example is in last nights MM drawing when five players matched 5 + 0. Four of the players will collect $250.000, but the California player will collect $201,115. The other four 5 + 0 winners could have spent another buck on the Megaplier and won $1 million, but had the CA player played the same five numbers twice, they would still collect $201,115 because of the pari-mutual payoff.

                        "Selling more tickets for each drawing (by adding California to the mix) means greater "coverage" of the 175 million possible combinations of six numbers."

                        That's true, but just to get a 50% chance the jackpot will be won, 88 million tickets must be sold so there was less than a 50% chance the last $338 million jackpot would be won because ticket sales were 81.6 million.

                        "California is the most populated state in The U.S., so just like New York, there'll be frequent JP winners in Ca"

                        Using MM sales as a model, those two states combined had about a 33% chance of having a jackpot winner when the $41 million MM jackpot was won on March 12. There was a 67% chance that jackpot would be won in one of the other 42 states/jurisdictions. Combined CA and NY average 33% of all MM ticket sales and won 33% of the jackpots. If the CA PB ticket sales are about the same percentage as MM, the number of jackpot winners should be about the same. It all depends if they notice the 5 + 0 winners are collecting considerably less than the $1 million the other states pay.

                        One thing for certain if the MM sales are an indicator, they will spend lots of money on PB tickets when the jackpot approaches $300 million. They don't offer the Megaplier so I doubt they'll offer PowerPlay so California may not contribute as much as people think when the jackpot is building.

                          GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                          Posted: April 4, 2013, 5:34 am - IP Logged

                          California ranks 33 in per capita lottery spending averaging $108.77 a year compared to Massachusetts that averages $860.70. The reason the Massachusetts players spend almost 8 times more each year is probably because 72% of their ticket sales are paid back in prizes and the California lottery only pays back 53% in prizes. A good example is in last nights MM drawing when five players matched 5 + 0. Four of the players will collect $250.000, but the California player will collect $201,115. The other four 5 + 0 winners could have spent another buck on the Megaplier and won $1 million, but had the CA player played the same five numbers twice, they would still collect $201,115 because of the pari-mutual payoff.

                          "Selling more tickets for each drawing (by adding California to the mix) means greater "coverage" of the 175 million possible combinations of six numbers."

                          That's true, but just to get a 50% chance the jackpot will be won, 88 million tickets must be sold so there was less than a 50% chance the last $338 million jackpot would be won because ticket sales were 81.6 million.

                          "California is the most populated state in The U.S., so just like New York, there'll be frequent JP winners in Ca"

                          Using MM sales as a model, those two states combined had about a 33% chance of having a jackpot winner when the $41 million MM jackpot was won on March 12. There was a 67% chance that jackpot would be won in one of the other 42 states/jurisdictions. Combined CA and NY average 33% of all MM ticket sales and won 33% of the jackpots. If the CA PB ticket sales are about the same percentage as MM, the number of jackpot winners should be about the same. It all depends if they notice the 5 + 0 winners are collecting considerably less than the $1 million the other states pay.

                          One thing for certain if the MM sales are an indicator, they will spend lots of money on PB tickets when the jackpot approaches $300 million. They don't offer the Megaplier so I doubt they'll offer PowerPlay so California may not contribute as much as people think when the jackpot is building.

                          Not to pick a nit, but is it 88 million tickets, or 88 million lines of unique 6 number combinations? 

                          I wonder what percentage of the 81.6 million tickets sold for the $338 jackpot had duplicate lines/combinations printed on them?  It seems to me that would lower the chances of the jackpot being won even further, yet it was still won. 

                          That was good input with regard to Caifornia's payback percentage.  I'd like to know New York's percentage. I would think it's fairly decent. I had no idea Cali doesnt offer the Megaplier. I rarely play either PB or MM without adding the kicker, but because of the added expense, I wont play either til the JP is close to 200 million.

                          About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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                            Morrison, IL
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                            Posted: April 4, 2013, 8:12 am - IP Logged

                            I think PB will still roll to only $60 million if it is not won Saturday, even with California joining.  The $50 million jackpot ($31.5 million cash) won last Saturday was underfunded by $13 million.

                            ---


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                              Posted: April 4, 2013, 11:25 am - IP Logged

                              California will be irrelevant since over 90% of PB & MM winners come from states east of the Mississippi River anyway.