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# Do you see PB jackpots of \$300 mil plus a fluke going forward with California joining in soon?

Topic closed. 63 replies. Last post 4 years ago by KY Floyd.

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NY
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October 16, 2005
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 Posted: April 4, 2013, 11:29 am - IP Logged

"Not to pick a nit, but is it 88 million tickets, or 88 million lines of unique 6 number combinations?"

Of course. The more tickets they sell the more repeats there are. If all combinations were picked randomly, once 10% of the combinations had been played we would expect 1 in 10 tickets sold to repeat a combination that had already been  used. When 20% have been used 1 in 5 would be repeats, and so on. For the first few rols, when sales are modest, it's not abig factor, but it becomes significant when sales start going up. It would take sales of about 105 million tickets to use 87.5 million combinations.

Of course not all  tickets are chosen randomly. Regular players who choose their own numbers are fond of numbers they consider special, and that skews the choices towards birthday numbers, which account for less than 5% of the possible combinations. That could account for enough duplication to require selling several million more tickets to reach 50% of combinations.

United States
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September 7, 2011
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 Posted: April 4, 2013, 11:33 am - IP Logged

"Not to pick a nit, but is it 88 million tickets, or 88 million lines of unique 6 number combinations?"

Of course. The more tickets they sell the more repeats there are. If all combinations were picked randomly, once 10% of the combinations had been played we would expect 1 in 10 tickets sold to repeat a combination that had already been  used. When 20% have been used 1 in 5 would be repeats, and so on. For the first few rols, when sales are modest, it's not abig factor, but it becomes significant when sales start going up. It would take sales of about 105 million tickets to use 87.5 million combinations.

Of course not all  tickets are chosen randomly. Regular players who choose their own numbers are fond of numbers they consider special, and that skews the choices towards birthday numbers, which account for less than 5% of the possible combinations. That could account for enough duplication to require selling several million more tickets to reach 50% of combinations.

Yes, those stupid self-pickers wreak havoc on your logic dont they......

United States
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 Posted: April 4, 2013, 11:34 am - IP Logged

What does it do to your logic when a selt-picker is correct, like Donald was

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 Posted: April 4, 2013, 11:35 am - IP Logged

Cali spends the most on MM, so i can't imagine what their PB sales will be. Jackpots will be huge if no one wins.

Kentucky
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 Posted: April 4, 2013, 11:42 am - IP Logged

Not to pick a nit, but is it 88 million tickets, or 88 million lines of unique 6 number combinations?

I wonder what percentage of the 81.6 million tickets sold for the \$338 jackpot had duplicate lines/combinations printed on them?  It seems to me that would lower the chances of the jackpot being won even further, yet it was still won.

That was good input with regard to Caifornia's payback percentage.  I'd like to know New York's percentage. I would think it's fairly decent. I had no idea Cali doesnt offer the Megaplier. I rarely play either PB or MM without adding the kicker, but because of the added expense, I wont play either til the JP is close to 200 million.

Probably the best way to determine the amount of tickets sales to realistically get over a 50% chance the jackpot will be hit is to project how many tickets should match five numbers. One ticket out of every 5,153,633 should match 5 and there are 35 bonus numbers so the odds against that one combo winning the jackpot are 35 to 1. It should take at least 18 five number matches to get over a 50% chance or about 93 million tickets.

Can't really guess how many duplicate tickets are sold but looking at the March 30, 2012 MM drawing when 652 million tickets were sold, there were only three jackpot winners or 1 out of every 216 million tickets sold. The odds against any one ticket winning the jackpot in that drawing was considerably higher than the stated odds of 1 out of 175 million so it doesn't look like that many duplicates are sold.

The New York Lottery pays 58.7% of it's ticket sales in prizes.

"I had no idea Cali doesnt offer the Megaplier. I rarely play either PB or MM without adding the kicker, but because of the added expense, I wont play either til the JP is close to 200 million."

I mostly play when the jackpot is high too, but I usually get the Megaplier or PowerPlay and I did when the jackpot was \$588 million on November 28. But after I bought the tickets, I wondered if I should have bought more \$2 tickets with the same amount I spent because I was playing to win the jackpot and not a better payoff by hitting a secondary prize.

Lottery games are a gamble for the states too and it looks like the Cali Lottery eliminated the risk. One month Kentucky paid out 97% of their Pick-3 sales to prize winners. Oregon had a 5 + 0 \$250,000 MM winner on Tuesday and the ticket sales were \$87,658 so there is a risk. If Oregon used Cali's pari-mutual payoff schedule, that player would get about \$48,000.

Kentucky
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 Posted: April 4, 2013, 12:34 pm - IP Logged

"Not to pick a nit, but is it 88 million tickets, or 88 million lines of unique 6 number combinations?"

Of course. The more tickets they sell the more repeats there are. If all combinations were picked randomly, once 10% of the combinations had been played we would expect 1 in 10 tickets sold to repeat a combination that had already been  used. When 20% have been used 1 in 5 would be repeats, and so on. For the first few rols, when sales are modest, it's not abig factor, but it becomes significant when sales start going up. It would take sales of about 105 million tickets to use 87.5 million combinations.

Of course not all  tickets are chosen randomly. Regular players who choose their own numbers are fond of numbers they consider special, and that skews the choices towards birthday numbers, which account for less than 5% of the possible combinations. That could account for enough duplication to require selling several million more tickets to reach 50% of combinations.

"The more tickets they sell the more repeats there are."

If that's true, why were there only three jackpot winners when 652 million tickets were sold for the March 30, 2012 MM drawing and why don't we see very many jackpots with multiple winners?

"If all combinations were picked randomly, once 10% of the combinations had been played we would expect 1 in 10 tickets sold to repeat a combination that had already been used."

Why would a state like Rhode Island take a chance on having multiple five number matches, each paying \$250,000 when their total ticket sales for the last MM drawing was only \$56,000?

In the last MM drawing, 27 of the states didn't have enough in ticket sales to cover one \$250,000 prize, yet you want us to believe they all allow their terminals to randomly spit out multiple duplicate tickets?

I don't know how they program their termnal RNGs, but I do know they have no control over the live ball drawing. I really doubt the smaller lotteries are taking the chance five or more of their QPs with the Megaplier might all have the same five winning numbers just based on their MM ticket sales.

Bay Area - California
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 Posted: April 4, 2013, 7:38 pm - IP Logged

"The more tickets they sell the more repeats there are."

If that's true, why were there only three jackpot winners when 652 million tickets were sold for the March 30, 2012 MM drawing and why don't we see very many jackpots with multiple winners?

"If all combinations were picked randomly, once 10% of the combinations had been played we would expect 1 in 10 tickets sold to repeat a combination that had already been used."

Why would a state like Rhode Island take a chance on having multiple five number matches, each paying \$250,000 when their total ticket sales for the last MM drawing was only \$56,000?

In the last MM drawing, 27 of the states didn't have enough in ticket sales to cover one \$250,000 prize, yet you want us to believe they all allow their terminals to randomly spit out multiple duplicate tickets?

I don't know how they program their termnal RNGs, but I do know they have no control over the live ball drawing. I really doubt the smaller lotteries are taking the chance five or more of their QPs with the Megaplier might all have the same five winning numbers just based on their MM ticket sales.

Stack- if Rhode island did not have enough to cover their bets perhaps they ought to go back to the voters or remove themselves altogether from the lottery.. At this rate, the State is bleeding Red.

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 Posted: April 4, 2013, 8:22 pm - IP Logged

Question, could MM or PB ever go completely broke since it's too easy for some to win?

NY State
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 Posted: April 4, 2013, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

Probably the best way to determine the amount of tickets sales to realistically get over a 50% chance the jackpot will be hit is to project how many tickets should match five numbers. One ticket out of every 5,153,633 should match 5 and there are 35 bonus numbers so the odds against that one combo winning the jackpot are 35 to 1. It should take at least 18 five number matches to get over a 50% chance or about 93 million tickets.

Can't really guess how many duplicate tickets are sold but looking at the March 30, 2012 MM drawing when 652 million tickets were sold, there were only three jackpot winners or 1 out of every 216 million tickets sold. The odds against any one ticket winning the jackpot in that drawing was considerably higher than the stated odds of 1 out of 175 million so it doesn't look like that many duplicates are sold.

The New York Lottery pays 58.7% of it's ticket sales in prizes.

"I had no idea Cali doesnt offer the Megaplier. I rarely play either PB or MM without adding the kicker, but because of the added expense, I wont play either til the JP is close to 200 million."

I mostly play when the jackpot is high too, but I usually get the Megaplier or PowerPlay and I did when the jackpot was \$588 million on November 28. But after I bought the tickets, I wondered if I should have bought more \$2 tickets with the same amount I spent because I was playing to win the jackpot and not a better payoff by hitting a secondary prize.

Lottery games are a gamble for the states too and it looks like the Cali Lottery eliminated the risk. One month Kentucky paid out 97% of their Pick-3 sales to prize winners. Oregon had a 5 + 0 \$250,000 MM winner on Tuesday and the ticket sales were \$87,658 so there is a risk. If Oregon used Cali's pari-mutual payoff schedule, that player would get about \$48,000.

Thanks for an excellent response!

There certainly is a lot to the lottery biz, isnt there?  As a casual player, (a buyer of tickets) I never gave much thought to the sell side of the equation.  I doubt most players have an in depth understanding of what the states need to know and do to make it a profitable business. I guess other players are just like me, they just know if you buy a ticket, you might win a lot of money.

Besides PB and MM, I play other games with an eye towards winning 2nd place.  Most notably, NY's Lotto.  It's second place prize can rollover, and it recently saw a \$260,000 winner.  The odds for a second place win are considerably lower than the odds to win a JP.

One of NY's games, Sweet Million, has relatively low odds to win a 1 million dollar JP. (it's a 6/40 game)  The thing about it is that for the first 5 winners of a million dollars, it isnt pari-mutuel.  Not too long ago, someone won two million by playing the same line twice.  It's unclear if the winner did it by accident, or on purpose. There were two separate winning tickets sold on the same block in two different stores that are about 100 yards apart. So the question is did one player use the same bet slip at two different stores by accident, or did they do it on purpose?  I learned from it though.  Since it happened, I've been known to play the same set of six numbers on two lines of one ticket. That's the same cost per line as PB, if you dont buy the PowerPlay.

About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

United States
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 Posted: April 5, 2013, 12:37 am - IP Logged

The flipside is that with California in the mix, there will be more combinations picked on every draw. Therefore, the jackpot should be won more often.

Morrison, IL
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 Posted: April 5, 2013, 7:47 am - IP Logged

Question, could MM or PB ever go completely broke since it's too easy for some to win?

Oh yeah.  It seemed like PB could go broke back in December, when it paid four \$50 million jackpots in a row.  Those were underfunded by a total of \$59 million.  PB is REALLY taking a gamble with its \$40 million opening jackpot and \$10 million minimum increases.

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Kentucky
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 Posted: April 5, 2013, 10:16 pm - IP Logged

Stack- if Rhode island did not have enough to cover their bets perhaps they ought to go back to the voters or remove themselves altogether from the lottery.. At this rate, the State is bleeding Red.

What about the Virgin Islands, their ticket sales were barely enough to cover a pick-4 straight win?

NY
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 Posted: April 6, 2013, 12:36 am - IP Logged

"The more tickets they sell the more repeats there are."

If that's true, why were there only three jackpot winners when 652 million tickets were sold for the March 30, 2012 MM drawing and why don't we see very many jackpots with multiple winners?

"If all combinations were picked randomly, once 10% of the combinations had been played we would expect 1 in 10 tickets sold to repeat a combination that had already been used."

Why would a state like Rhode Island take a chance on having multiple five number matches, each paying \$250,000 when their total ticket sales for the last MM drawing was only \$56,000?

In the last MM drawing, 27 of the states didn't have enough in ticket sales to cover one \$250,000 prize, yet you want us to believe they all allow their terminals to randomly spit out multiple duplicate tickets?

I don't know how they program their termnal RNGs, but I do know they have no control over the live ball drawing. I really doubt the smaller lotteries are taking the chance five or more of their QPs with the Megaplier might all have the same five winning numbers just based on their MM ticket sales.

"why were there only three jackpot winners when 652 million tickets were sold for the March 30, 2012 MM drawing and why don't we see very many jackpots with multiple winners?"

Um, maybe it's because "The more tickets they sell the more repeats there are."? Most drawings don't sell all that many tickets, so there aren't very many duplicates, so if it doesn't roll there's usually only one winner. For the \$656 million MM jackpot there were far more tickets sold, so there were a lot more duplicates, which is what we've seen with almost all of the drawings for the biggest jackpots.

"Why would a state like Rhode Island take a chance on having multiple five number matches, each paying \$250,000 when their total ticket sales for the last MM drawing was only \$56,000?"

Because if they only sell 56,000 tickets there's only about a 1 in 70 chance of having even a single winner. Why do oyu think PB is wiling to take the chnace of paying a \$40 million jackpot every single week when sales for a \$40 million jack pot only give them enough to pay for a \$15 million jackpot?

"In the last MM drawing, 27 of the states didn't have enough in ticket sales to cover one \$250,000 prize"

And how many of those states actually had tp pay a \$250,000 prize for that drawing?

I thought you usually had a decent grasp of math and probability, but that post doesn't make any sense at all. Do you have some delusion that every single drawing has to have results  that perfectly match what probability suggests?

Morrison, IL
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 Posted: April 6, 2013, 1:22 am - IP Logged

Correct, KYFloyd.  It doesn't matter that most states don't sell enough tickets to fully fund even one \$250,000 prize, because if they don't have any match 5+0 winners, they hold the funds for that prize level anyway for future draws where they DO need the funds to pay a winner.  Same with the other set prize levels.

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Kentucky
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 Posted: April 6, 2013, 12:14 pm - IP Logged

"why were there only three jackpot winners when 652 million tickets were sold for the March 30, 2012 MM drawing and why don't we see very many jackpots with multiple winners?"

Um, maybe it's because "The more tickets they sell the more repeats there are."? Most drawings don't sell all that many tickets, so there aren't very many duplicates, so if it doesn't roll there's usually only one winner. For the \$656 million MM jackpot there were far more tickets sold, so there were a lot more duplicates, which is what we've seen with almost all of the drawings for the biggest jackpots.

"Why would a state like Rhode Island take a chance on having multiple five number matches, each paying \$250,000 when their total ticket sales for the last MM drawing was only \$56,000?"

Because if they only sell 56,000 tickets there's only about a 1 in 70 chance of having even a single winner. Why do oyu think PB is wiling to take the chnace of paying a \$40 million jackpot every single week when sales for a \$40 million jack pot only give them enough to pay for a \$15 million jackpot?

"In the last MM drawing, 27 of the states didn't have enough in ticket sales to cover one \$250,000 prize"

And how many of those states actually had tp pay a \$250,000 prize for that drawing?

I thought you usually had a decent grasp of math and probability, but that post doesn't make any sense at all. Do you have some delusion that every single drawing has to have results  that perfectly match what probability suggests?

"Because if they only sell 56,000 tickets there's only about a 1 in 70 chance of having even a single winner."

The odds you're giving are based on the number of total combinations. I wasn't talking about a single winner, but programing their QP RNG to insure there won't be multiple winners. There is always a risk of several self pick players picking the same five numbers, but at best it's only a small percentage of all ticket sales. If each QP is a unique set of five numbers out of every 3,904,701 tickets they sell, based on their yearly ticket sales, the Rhode Island lottery can expect to have three or four \$250,000 prize winners and gamble against multiple self pick winners.

"Do you have some delusion that every single drawing has to have results  that perfectly match what probability suggests?"

For the fiscal year 2012, the RI gross MM profits were 34% of their MM ticket sales and if they had to pay five more winners because of QP duplicates, their gross profit would drop to 25%. In one month Kentucky paid out 97% of their total pick-3 ticket sales in prizes, but much worse if they hadn't had a limit on how much could be wagered on one drawing because they reached that limit on three of those drawings.

It's delusional to believe any state lottery would operate as "we'll book any and all bets" and risk having to explain to the state agencies that receive the net lottery revenues and to the state legislators why revenues dropped drastically when total ticket sales were about the same. A loss because of self picks is easy to explain as in KY; the players got lucky. But the same loss because of QP sales could be prevented by programming the terminals QP RNG as I suggested.

I don't know how the terminal RNG for QP are programmed or the drawing RNG, but I doubt we'll ever see Ms. Hargrove being questioned about a drop in net revenues because of a drop in the percentage of gross profits.

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