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Do you see PB jackpots of $300 mil plus a fluke going forward with California joining in soon?

Topic closed. 63 replies. Last post 4 years ago by KY Floyd.

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Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
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Posted: April 9, 2013, 11:57 am - IP Logged

There it is then, they can and do give out duplicate Quick Picks.

I believe the three tickets that shared the record $650 plus MM drawing were all QPs, but there were 652 million tickets sold so multiple winners were expected.

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    Kentucky
    United States
    Member #32652
    February 14, 2006
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    Posted: April 9, 2013, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

    Pay out on duplicate lines will not happen if the duplicates are produced by a terminal malfunction like the ones in AZ that were discovered by a pool. Only "valid" duplicate lines will be paid. That's why the cookie fortune incident was investigated to ensure "valid" duplicates were being paid.

    There is a "repeat" button on lottery terminals and a clerk apparently accidentally hit it when I bought MM tickets and printed five identical tickets. Each ticket was valid but could not be voided so had I won the jackpot, it would be at least a five way split. Because it was an obvious error by the clerk, I was only responsible for one ticket and the others were either sold to other players or the store kept them. That was many years ago so that problem was probably fixed.

    Our PB playslips have a multi-draw option up to 16 drawings and if the machine isn't cleared or the reader malfuncions, a $20 ticket could cost $320. The programming of lottery terminals is more complex than we think and anything is possible.

    "That's why the cookie fortune incident was investigated to ensure "valid" duplicates were being paid."

    I wonder how many people have copied smaller amount winning tickets on their printers and tried to cash them?

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      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
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      Posted: April 9, 2013, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

      "There is always a risk of several self pick players picking the same five numbers, but at best it's only a small percentage of all ticket sales."

      That "small percentage" is actually about 20 to 30%, and as I said in my first post, many of those players don't choose their numbers randomly. That means there are more duplicate combiantions from that group than their percentage would suggest. Because birthday numbers account for less than 5% of possible combinations, selling 70 to 80 random QP's should result in only 3 or 4 tickets with those combinations. 20 to 30 self pick tickets would be expected to use 3 or 4 birthday combinations if just 10 to 20% of players use all birthday numbers when making their selections. Players choosing their own numbers very definitely results in far more duplication than would result from purely random selection.

      The ultimate example of the lottery having an unusually large number of duplicate combinations is the fortune cookie powerball drawing from several years ago, when there were more than 100 5+0 winners. We can also be sure from tha incident that there were many more players who played other sets of numbers  from fortune cookies, so there were probably hundreds of combinations that were played  50 times or more.

      Many years ago the NY lottery ran advertisements that said that nearly 10,000 thousands of people played each of the two combinations made by choosing the numbers diagonally from the top left and top right of the bet slip. The lotteries have also reported that large numbers of people play other patterns from the bet slips, consecutive numbers, and multiples of 5.

      That makes the chance of an unusually high number of duplicates from randomly selected numbers completely insignificant compared to the risk of letting people choose ther own numbers.

      Of course none of that means the lotteries are actually taking a risk. First, everything that results in an increased risk of multiple winners for some combinations  is balanced by a reduced chance of having even one winner for other combinations. If drawing all birthday numbers  increases the chance of Rhode Islnd having two 5+0 winners out of only 56,000 players, it also reduces thier risk of paying even one prize when the winning combination is from the more than 95% that have a non-birthday number. In the long run, probability ensures that  if Rhode Island pays two winners in one drawing it will be balanced by an unusually long run with no winners.

      Second, just in case probability doesn't protect them,  the official rules will. All lotteries have arule that allows them to make the prizes  parimutuel if there are an unusually high number of winners. PB could have exercised that option when they had the fortune cookie payout, but chose to absorb the additional expense. If the winning combination ever is 1,2,3,4,5 or one of the other heavily played combinations you can be sure that the lotteries will exercise that option.

      The lotteries have absolutely no need to deliberately reduce duplicates by preventing purely random selection of numbers. On the contrary, a purely random selection reduces their chance of having to reduce individual prizes by  making parimutuel payouts.

      "That "small percentage" is actually about 20 to 30%, and as I said in my first post, many of those players don't choose their numbers randomly. That means there are more duplicate combiantions from that group than their percentage would suggest."

      Having multiple duplicate self pick lines is part of doing business because that option is allowed and why two players in WVA had several $2 million winning Powerplay tickets. That is a risk in every drawing. I'm talking about expecting to have one five number match for about every 4 million MM QP tickets sold and one every 5 million for PB QPs. State lotteries don't expect to have 5 or more QPs with five number matches on sales of $50,000, but it's possible if the individual terminals independently randomly distribute QPs. 

      "Of course none of that means the lotteries are actually taking a risk."

      You're missing my point. Some states don't even average $200,000 in drawing sales until a PB jackpot reaches about $150 million (some of the state MM sales are under $100,000) so 5 PB QPs matching five numbers in one drawing alone would take 25 drawings to pay off and that's not counting the other secondary prizes. That happens a few times a year and they lose the profits they gained because of a huge jackpot.

      I'm not saying the lottery terminals are programmed to distribute QPs raffle style, but saying IF they were, there would be no risk of having multiple QPs matching five numbers.

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        NY
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        October 16, 2005
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        Posted: April 9, 2013, 1:15 pm - IP Logged

        "State lotteries don't expect to have 5 or more QPs with five number matches on sales of $50,000, but it's possible if the individual terminals independently randomly distribute QPs."

        It's also possible that you'll win every jackpot you  play for in May, but what are the chances that it will happen? The lotteries rely on probability, and probability works very reliably. Having 5 5+0 winners from sales of 50,000 tickets could happen if the winning numbers happen to match a set of numbers that somebody deliberately played multiple times, but it's a very small chance.

        For tickets that are generated randomly, selling 50,000 or 100,000 tickets simply isn't going to result in a lot of duplicates. There will certainly be a few combinations that are repeated a 2nd time, and there may even be a very small number that have been used 3 times. The chances of a combination being repeated 5 times with sales of 100,000 random tickets is essentially zero. Even if there was a combination that had been repeated 5 times the chances that the state would  face the prospect of paying for those prizes is 1 in 4 or 5 million.

        Having it happen from random chance simply isn't something that they need to worry about. Having it happen as a  result of people being allowed to deliberately play the same numbers as often as they want, is a much more likely possibility. That's one of the reasons that they have the option for a parimutuel payout.