Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 10, 2016, 11:02 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Playing the Lottery as a Business

Topic closed. 65 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Ronnie316.

Page 3 of 5
54
PrintE-mailLink
Denmother1's avatar - batman38
Suffolk, VA
United States
Member #106648
February 22, 2011
781 Posts
Offline
Posted: May 28, 2013, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

He went to Sweden to have some surgery done.

And now she's back.

LOL!  That's funny!

"Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, Wisdom is knowing that a tomato does not go in a fruit salad."  Hat

    Avatar
    New Member

    United States
    Member #133879
    October 11, 2012
    3 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: June 21, 2013, 2:29 pm - IP Logged

    Back when I was learning to invest, a retired futures contract trade manager taught me a little of his experience.  He found that in a random market--which he compared to any of the random games of chance--one could average a profit by managing their bet-sizes and bankroll the same way an investor would.  And thus, survive the random losses and extended drawdowns. 

    At the time I hadn't had any experience with games of chance, so his explaination was over my head--until I had some practice with his money-management system in actual trades.  Kind of works like the valves in your heart and circulatory system.  Pressure builds up but flow is only allowed in one direction.  A big reserve is kept on hand and new trades (new bets) are funded only if there is a sound basis for taking them.  Once that sound basis disappears or proves unfounded, the trade (bet) is no longer funded. 

    His idea of theoretically profiting on games of chance intrigued me, but I never tried it.  And, he wasn't a gambler but had known of professional gamblers.  His only personal experience with the money-management system was the futures markets. 

    Anyway, the "Lottery as a Business" title reminded me of his explaination of being able to profit from purely random events.  Have to be patient, bet only a tiny percentage, and have a sound strategy that exposes you to profit and buffers you from damage caused by losses.

      Avatar
      New Member

      United States
      Member #133879
      October 11, 2012
      3 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: June 21, 2013, 2:55 pm - IP Logged

      Hmmm... after I sent that post it suddenly hit me... the futures markets are approximately a zero-sum game, where profits are equal to the losses for all the players.  With the lotteries the payouts don't seem to equal the pay-ins?  The state--or whoever--is removing half the money going in?

      The money-management system is designed for a functioning non-leaking "circulatory system" (using the analogy of check-valves in the heart and circulatory system).  With the lottery, we have the analogy of a leaky system--not sure how to design a money-management system for a circulatory system with a big wound and blood (our money) gushing out of it.Dead

        Avatar
        CHERRY HILL, NJ
        United States
        Member #130213
        July 9, 2012
        387 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: June 22, 2013, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

        On the road, this topic suddenly came to mind and I think its not a bad idea after all.

        The problem with gaming losses is that they are deductible only to the extent of your winnings.

        I believe this idea solves that problem.

        Anyone can register/start a business, a software company, dedicated to developing a winning system, charge lottery wins/losses as income/expense as testing expenses and end up either winning, which is subject only to sales tax or being able to charge your losses as a legitimate business expense, which you cannot otherwise do in the regular 1040.

        Maybe its worth exploring more.


          United States
          Member #116268
          September 7, 2011
          20244 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: June 23, 2013, 10:44 am - IP Logged

          Hmmm... after I sent that post it suddenly hit me... the futures markets are approximately a zero-sum game, where profits are equal to the losses for all the players.  With the lotteries the payouts don't seem to equal the pay-ins?  The state--or whoever--is removing half the money going in?

          The money-management system is designed for a functioning non-leaking "circulatory system" (using the analogy of check-valves in the heart and circulatory system).  With the lottery, we have the analogy of a leaky system--not sure how to design a money-management system for a circulatory system with a big wound and blood (our money) gushing out of it.Dead

          Not only that, the futures market is no where near as random as balls bouncing in a tumbler........

          Fund managers and program traders will always have a choice as to when and how they pull the trigger.


            United States
            Member #116268
            September 7, 2011
            20244 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: June 23, 2013, 10:47 am - IP Logged

            Looks like tomorrow will be the winning day. Did anyone pick the 24th?

            Lottery Post Statistics

            Record:
            31,653

            on November 28, 2012, 8:13 pm

            Members:
            144,079
            Newest Member:
            Posts:
            2,997,895
            Topics:
            199,708
              Avatar
              New Member

              United States
              Member #133879
              October 11, 2012
              3 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: June 29, 2013, 2:38 pm - IP Logged

              Not only that, the futures market is no where near as random as balls bouncing in a tumbler........

              Fund managers and program traders will always have a choice as to when and how they pull the trigger.

              Hey Ronnie!

              Thanks for that idea! 

              Years after that manager told about his observations, I noticed quite a few traders and managers that had started as professional gamblers.  Even met a few options traders that had been banned in Vegas.  They all became millionaires in the markets--even the ones starting from bankruptcy.  I guess the stuff they learned or figured out from gambling and profiting on random sequences REALLY works well in less-than-random sequences--just like you observed above.

                lotsofwins's avatar - half planet.jpg
                Texas
                United States
                Member #114703
                August 5, 2011
                4623 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: June 29, 2013, 2:51 pm - IP Logged

                hey club would you mind posting your systems, if you already have, I'm having trouble finding them..thanks


                  United States
                  Member #116268
                  September 7, 2011
                  20244 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: June 29, 2013, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

                  It's a known fact that the lottery is just like Vegas where it's set up for the House to always win regardless of the payout. It's also true that most of us lose more than we win irrespective if we play online in multiple states or in stores. The final fact is that most State sponsored lottery games beit Pick 3, Pick 4, Cash 5, Scratch-Offs, Mega Millions, & Powerball are set up as Non-Profit Organizations.

                  Here's what they don't want you to know. You can claim up to 28% of your gross income from your career, 9 to 5 jobs, and earnings from the lottery as charitable contributions b/c the lotteries are set up as non-profits.

                  Thus, you can save all your tickets throughout the year and write them off on your taxes. Most stores will give you the losing tickets for free. Some lottery players are setting up websites where people can send their losing tickets for novice items.

                  Finally, if I won the Mega Millions or the Powerball, I would take the lump sum payment, pay off all my debt, and set up a small foundation(non-profit) where I put most of my money into that would be both Federal and State exempt from taxes (ie Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). This is hoe the super rich keep from paying taxes on their millions & billions. The investment strategy of the week that Fidelity and Vanguard can not beat on the return is the following: Go to Fidelity and Vanguard and set up an all-in-one investment fund. Put 60% of your investment in the Total Bond Market, 22% in the 500 Index Fun(basically most you a small minority owner in the Top 500 Business in America), and 18% in the Total International Market. No investment broker in the country can top this strategy no matter what they tell.

                  FIN

                  I don't play the lottery as a business, but I do use a "business" mindset.


                    United States
                    Member #116268
                    September 7, 2011
                    20244 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: June 29, 2013, 7:27 pm - IP Logged

                    Hey Ronnie!

                    Thanks for that idea! 

                    Years after that manager told about his observations, I noticed quite a few traders and managers that had started as professional gamblers.  Even met a few options traders that had been banned in Vegas.  They all became millionaires in the markets--even the ones starting from bankruptcy.  I guess the stuff they learned or figured out from gambling and profiting on random sequences REALLY works well in less-than-random sequences--just like you observed above.

                    YW and thanks for your comments. Professional traders understand how to ignore natural human impulses that dictate buying as prices get lower, because profiting from a falling market requires selling.

                      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                      Texas
                      United States
                      Member #86154
                      January 30, 2010
                      1649 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: June 30, 2013, 12:28 pm - IP Logged

                      YW and thanks for your comments. Professional traders understand how to ignore natural human impulses that dictate buying as prices get lower, because profiting from a falling market requires selling.

                      "ignore natural human impulses that dictate buying as prices get lower,"

                       

                      Really? So, a professional trader "waits" until the price of a stock rises, or, begins to rise before considering to purchase? Maybe I'm misunderstanding you completely, but the stock must begin to rise at some point as it cannot remain low or continue to drop forever...for the most part. The most growth and profit are direct results of getting in at the lowest possible price as opposed waiting until it's risen fairly well and then jumping in. At this point, it's growth is slowing and leveling off...possibly preparing to slightly decline again.

                      To see a stock fall from .50 to .42 to .38 is the time to get in...contrary to popular beliefs. You get in at .38 and it continues to fall but levels off at .30. It begins to rise again and your "par" is .38 and any rise beyond that is pure profit although you got in while it was still declining.

                      If I could purchase stock in "climate", I'd be a billionaire! Why? The temperature simply begins to drop at a certain point in the day and continues to do so over night. I'd get in while it was dropping knowing it has to begin to rise and then level off once again. Repeat process as necessary.

                       So, based on your comment, a trader waits until the temperature rises to about 90* to get in, but knowing the average is 95*-100*? Why not get in at 80* just before the "market closes" that evening and watch it drop to 72* while enroute to 93*for the next day???? 

                       

                      L.L.

                      Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                      There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                      #lotto-4-a-living


                        United States
                        Member #116268
                        September 7, 2011
                        20244 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: June 30, 2013, 12:38 pm - IP Logged

                        You're the only one who said anything about "waiting" LL. lol.lol.

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                          Texas
                          United States
                          Member #86154
                          January 30, 2010
                          1649 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: June 30, 2013, 12:46 pm - IP Logged

                          Please clarify, Ronnie...for me if you will. I'm headed to the gym and will check back in about two hours, okay.

                           

                          L.L.

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living


                            United States
                            Member #116268
                            September 7, 2011
                            20244 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: June 30, 2013, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

                            Please clarify, Ronnie...for me if you will. I'm headed to the gym and will check back in about two hours, okay.

                             

                            L.L.

                            The public "waits" for trend changes while the professionals just keep trading in the direction of the trend...

                            As Jammy would say..... "Its not too daunting" lol. lol.

                            Here is a real live example for you... Do you think NOW is a good time to BUY gold or SELL gold???


                              United States
                              Member #116268
                              September 7, 2011
                              20244 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: June 30, 2013, 1:20 pm - IP Logged

                              No wait, don't tell me.... You look at a chart that's plunging toward hades itself and say......

                              "This looks like a good time to BUY" ??? What?