Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited April 27, 2017, 1:20 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

649 formula

Topic closed. 109 replies. Last post 4 years ago by RJOh.

Page 3 of 8
51
PrintE-mailLink

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
Posted: June 5, 2013, 7:52 pm - IP Logged

RJOh,

"For anyone who's interested, 958 completed cycles of 49 numbers appearing  could be counted in the 997 drawings of Ohio Classic Lotto that varies from 19 to 65 drawings.  Below are those results"

It looks like the Ohio Classic is in the "Ballpark" with my random number generator.  Smile

I double checked my code, ran it for 20,000 iterations, and got:

Low    Mean   Median  High  Std Dev
 14    35.2     34    116     9.6

Which menas that about 95% of the time it's going to fall between 16 and 54.4.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule

--Jimmy4164

    Avatar

    United States
    Member #130795
    July 25, 2012
    80 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: June 5, 2013, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

    RJOh wrote:  ``For anyone who's interested, 958 completed cycles of 49 numbers appearing  could be counted in the 997 drawings of Ohio Classic Lotto that varies from 19 to 65 drawings.``

    And that is consistent with my analysis of the 31-year(!) data for the Canada 6/49 lotto:  19 to 64 drawings for all 49 numbers to appear in the first 6 numbers (not considering the bonus number), with a mean of 36 +/-2 rounded (with 95% confidence).

    FYI, Gwoof, when the bonus number is included (i.e. a draw of 7 numbers from the same pool of 49), there is only a small difference, to wit:  18 to 63 drawings with a mean of 32 +/-2 rounded (95% confidence).

    Jimmy4164 wrote:  ``I think your first pass at the simulation was the correct one!  When I noticed the questions here, I wrote a "quick and dirty" program to see what I get.  With 10,000 Trials, I got a mean number of draws of 35.05``.

    Actually, that demonstrates that neither of my "passes" is correct.  I'll have to look for a programming error later.  But the mean of your simulation is consistent with my analysis of the Canada 6/49 past numbers.  QED.

    Sorry for the misdirection.

    Jimmy4164 wrote:  ``I think your first pass at the simulation was the correct one! ``

    I wrote:  ``Actually, that demonstrates that neither of my "passes" is correct.``

    Looking back, I see you are correct.  But my first reported results were in the ballpark only by coincidence.  The design of the simulation was incorrect.  However, I suspect I introduced a programming error when I corrected the design, resulting in a wildly incorrect result.

      Avatar
      Kentucky
      United States
      Member #32652
      February 14, 2006
      7455 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: June 5, 2013, 8:10 pm - IP Logged

      For anyone who's interested, 958 completed cycles of 49 numbers appearing  could be counted in the 997 drawings of Ohio Classic Lotto that varies from 19 to 65 drawings.  Below are those results

        0: 0     10: 0     20: 4      30: 53    40: 26    50: 12
        1: 0     11: 0     21: 9      31: 54    41: 21    51: 10
        2: 0     12: 0     22: 18    32: 54    42: 19    52: 9
        3: 0     13: 0     23: 20    33: 47    43: 16    53: 9
        4: 0     14: 0     24: 28    34: 38    44: 15    54: 7
        5: 0     15: 0     25: 34    35: 37    45: 13    55: 6
        6: 0     16: 0     26: 37    36: 39    46: 13    56: 5
        7: 0     17: 0     27: 41    37: 35    47: 13    57: 4
        8: 0     18: 0     28: 44    38: 33    48: 13    58: 4
        9: 0     19: 3     29: 49    39: 34    49: 12    59: 4

       60: 4     70: 0     80: 0     90: 0
       61: 3     71: 0     81: 0     91: 0
       62: 3     72: 0     82: 0     92: 0
       63: 2     73: 0     83: 0     93: 0
       64: 2     74: 0     84: 0     94: 0
       65: 2     75: 0     85: 0     95: 0
       66: 0     76: 0     86: 0     96: 0
       67: 0     77: 0     87: 0     97: 0
       68: 0     78: 0     88: 0     98: 0
       69: 0     79: 0     89: 0     99: 0

      It looks like the sweet spot is between 25 and 39 drawings and it looks unlikely that will ever reach 90.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        20018 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: June 6, 2013, 2:46 pm - IP Logged

        It looks like the sweet spot is between 25 and 39 drawings and it looks unlikely that will ever reach 90.

        For this Saturday drawing all 49 numbers in OCL has come up in the last 31 drawings which is right in the middle of that "sweet spot", I wonder if that going to make it easier for someone to win the jackpot.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       


          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
          2180 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: June 6, 2013, 4:04 pm - IP Logged

          For this Saturday drawing all 49 numbers in OCL has come up in the last 31 drawings which is right in the middle of that "sweet spot", I wonder if that going to make it easier for someone to win the jackpot.

          "I wonder if that going to make it easier for someone to win the jackpot."

          What do you think Gloria C. Mackenzie's answer would be to this question?

          Wink

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            20018 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: June 6, 2013, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

            "I wonder if that going to make it easier for someone to win the jackpot."

            What do you think Gloria C. Mackenzie's answer would be to this question?

            Wink

            I have no idea what she would answer but I doubt if she would say very much since she hasn't said very much about her jackpot win.

            Since OCL jackpots have been won very few times, if I get the chance I might go back and check what the number distribution patterns were when they were won to see if there is a pattern.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
              Park City, UT
              United States
              Member #69864
              January 18, 2009
              1000 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: June 6, 2013, 7:27 pm - IP Logged

              I'm still trying to figure out the usefulness of this information as a lottery filter.

              Jimmy

                Avatar
                bgonçalves
                Brasil
                Member #92564
                June 9, 2010
                2196 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: June 6, 2013, 8:54 pm - IP Logged
                Hello, gwoff, good if you are playing a lottery 49/6 half already hit 100% of any lot, can check the draw can be simulated up will always hit 100%, but initial attention are the digits 0 through 4 garanatido this 100% clear lack wing terminations 0a 9, but the front does not need to worry ok
                As for cycles, one filter is numbered lines within each cycle = example at the moment after you're starting a new line noa 16 numbers that in 16:17 cycles of cycles, you can delete a numbers 30,
                Below the matrix always perfect hits half (digit initial 100%)
                000000
                000001
                000002
                000003
                000004
                000011
                000012
                000013
                000014
                000022
                000023
                000024
                000033
                000034
                000 044
                000111
                000 112
                000 113
                000 114
                000 122
                000123
                000124
                000 133
                000134
                000144
                000222
                000 223
                000 224
                000 233
                000 234
                000 244
                000333
                000334
                000 344
                000 444
                001111
                001 112
                001 113
                001114
                001122
                001123
                001124
                001 133
                001 134
                001 144
                001 222
                001 223
                001 224
                001 233
                001234
                001244
                001 333
                001 334
                001 344
                001 444
                002222
                002 223
                002 224
                002 233
                002 234
                002 244
                002 333
                002 334
                002,344
                002 444
                003333
                003 334
                003 344
                003 444
                004 444
                011111
                011 112
                011 113
                011 114
                011 122
                011 123
                011 124
                011 133
                011 134
                011 144
                011 222
                011 223
                011 224
                011 233
                011 234
                011 244
                011 333
                011 334
                011 344
                011 444
                012 222
                012 223
                012 224
                012 233
                012 234
                012 244
                012 333
                012 334
                012 344
                012 444
                013 333
                013 334
                013 344
                013 444
                014 444
                022 222
                022 223
                022 224
                022 233
                022 234
                022 244
                022 333
                022 334
                022 344
                022 444
                023 333
                023 334
                023 344
                023 444
                024 444
                033 333
                033 334
                033 344
                033 444
                034 444
                044 444
                111111
                111112
                111113
                111114
                111122
                111123
                111124
                111133
                111134
                111144
                111222
                111223
                111224
                111 233
                111234
                111244
                111333
                111 334
                111344
                111444
                112222
                112223
                112224
                112233
                112234
                112244
                112333
                112334
                112344
                112444
                113333
                113334
                113344
                113444
                114 444
                122222
                122223
                122224
                122233
                122234
                122244
                122333
                122334
                122 344
                122444
                123333
                123334
                123344
                123444
                124444
                133333
                133334
                133344
                133444
                134444
                144444
                222222
                222223
                222224
                222233
                222234
                222244
                222333
                222334
                222344
                222444
                223333
                223334
                223344
                223444
                224444
                233333
                233334
                233344
                233444
                234444
                244444
                333333
                333334
                333344
                333444
                334444
                344444
                444444
                D
                  Avatar
                  Kentucky
                  United States
                  Member #32652
                  February 14, 2006
                  7455 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: June 7, 2013, 12:11 am - IP Logged

                  I'm still trying to figure out the usefulness of this information as a lottery filter.

                  Jimmy

                  They should create a chart like yours and simply count how many drawings the last number skips and average it. Or just wait until the last number is drawn and they do the analysis.

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
                    United States
                    Member #9
                    March 24, 2001
                    20018 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: June 7, 2013, 3:15 am - IP Logged

                    I'm still trying to figure out the usefulness of this information as a lottery filter.

                    Jimmy

                    Have you even figured out the usefulness of filtering when trying to pick a lottery winner?  The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                      Park City, UT
                      United States
                      Member #69864
                      January 18, 2009
                      1000 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: June 7, 2013, 5:16 am - IP Logged

                      They should create a chart like yours and simply count how many drawings the last number skips and average it. Or just wait until the last number is drawn and they do the analysis.

                      My software already calculates what the skip counts are for each number for a particular draw.  I guess my point is that I have not found the information all that useful because as a filter the skip counts by themselves do not eliminate all that many combinations without you being very specific.  I have other filters that are more mathematically predictable that eliminate a lot more combinations.

                      Jimmy

                        jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                        Park City, UT
                        United States
                        Member #69864
                        January 18, 2009
                        1000 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: June 7, 2013, 5:47 am - IP Logged

                        Have you even figured out the usefulness of filtering when trying to pick a lottery winner?  The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever.

                        As I said in a previous thread for a 5/39 game combinations of the following form L L A H H eliminate around 200,000 combinations.  Where L is a number between 1-19, and H is a number between 20-39, and A stands for ANY meaning it can be either Low or High.  70 out of the last 100 draws in Ohio Rolling Cash 5 would pass this filter.

                        I'm not currently doing any pick 6 games but I would expect L L A A H H would do very well as a filter for a 6/49 game.

                        Another useful filter if you like filtering out past winning combinations is the delta of a winning combination.

                        For example the draw 02-10-19-30-36 can be represented as B2-B1, B3-B2, B4-B3, B5-B4 or 10-2, 19-10, 30-19, 36-30 or 8-9-11-6

                        So you would have the following combinations or delta set using the delta signature of 8-9-11-6

                        01-09-18-29-35
                        02-10-19-30-36
                        03-11-20-31-37
                        04-12-21-32-38
                        05-13-22-33-39

                        Typically the delta signature is unique in the draw history as well and you can eliminate the entire delta set fairly reliably.  So using this filter you could eliminate more than just the past winners but all the past winners and the corresponding delta members or each delta set for each past winner.

                        Jimmy


                          United States
                          Member #93947
                          July 10, 2010
                          2180 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: June 7, 2013, 6:23 pm - IP Logged

                          Have you even figured out the usefulness of filtering when trying to pick a lottery winner?  The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever.

                          RJOh,

                          "The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever."

                          Do you think this might be because the total number of drawings conducted thus far in the Ohio Classic Lotto is minuscule compared to the total possibilities, 13,983,816?

                          The number of combinations not yet draw is overwhelmingly large, so why would you think there is any significance to your observation?

                          --Jimmy4164

                            Avatar

                            United States
                            Member #130795
                            July 25, 2012
                            80 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: June 7, 2013, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

                            RJOh,

                            "The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever."

                            Do you think this might be because the total number of drawings conducted thus far in the Ohio Classic Lotto is minuscule compared to the total possibilities, 13,983,816?

                            The number of combinations not yet draw is overwhelmingly large, so why would you think there is any significance to your observation?

                            --Jimmy4164

                            I cannot say with impunity what RJOh meant, but this is how I interpret his comment.  My observations about about the 3,819,816 combinations of "regular" numbers for the MegaMillions 5/56.  My data is a little out of date:  827 drawings from 6/24/2005 through 5/24/2013.

                            If I select a combination (for my ticket) that exactly matches a previous drawing, I would exclude it because there is only an 827-in-3,819,816 chance (0.02%) that the next drawing would repeat a previous drawing.

                            It's not that it cannot happen; all 5-tuple combinations are possible.  Moreover, the chance of a duplicate will increase over time.  But it's still very unlikely, to say the least.

                            What about 4-tuples (quads)?

                            Each ticket and drawing has C(5,4) = 5 quads.  And there are C(56,4) = 363,175 unique quads total.

                            Empirically, among the past 827 drawings, there have been 4095 unique quads and 20 quads that appeared twice -- 4135 in all (= 827*5).  So the current probability of a duplicate quad is 20-in-4135 (0.48%).

                            Again, that probability will increase over time.  But since we have seen only about 1.12% of all 4-tuples (4115 / 367,290), I would guess that it will take some time for the probability of duplication quads to become significant.

                            So I would exclude a selection that includes a quad that has appeared in any previous drawing.

                            What about 3-tuples (triples)?

                            Each ticket and drawing has C(5,3) = 10 triples.  And there are C(56,3) = 27,720 unique triples overall.

                            Empirically, we have see about 26% of all triples (7145 / 27,720) in the first 827 drawings.  The breakdown is:  6133 triples appearing once, 905 triples appearing twice, 101 appearing 3 times, and 6 appearing 4 times.  And again, the frequency of "duplicates" (including more than 2 times) will increase over time.

                            Also empirically, in the past year, 88% of the drawings have had 1 to 4 duplicate triples -- that is, triples that appeared in previous drawings.  And 56% of the drawings have had 2 or 3 duplicates.

                            So I might (operative word) exclude a selection that has more than 4 duplicate triples (for now).  I might even favor selections that have 2 or 3 duplicate triples (for now).

                            What about 2-tuples (pairs)?

                            I'll spare you the computational details.  There are C(56,2) = 1540 pairs, and we have seen them all but one  in the past 827 drawings.  Each ticket and drawing has C(5,2) = 10 pairs.  And in the past year, 94% of the drawings has 10 duplicate pairs -- that is, pairs that appeared in previous drawings; and the remainder have had 9 duplicate pairs.

                            So there is no point in trying to exclude drawings with duplicate pairs; it cannot be done.  In fact, most drawings will have 10 duplicate pairs now.  (One future drawing should have only 9 duplicate pairs. ;->)

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
                              United States
                              Member #9
                              March 24, 2001
                              20018 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: June 7, 2013, 7:35 pm - IP Logged

                              RJOh,

                              "The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever."

                              Do you think this might be because the total number of drawings conducted thus far in the Ohio Classic Lotto is minuscule compared to the total possibilities, 13,983,816?

                              The number of combinations not yet draw is overwhelmingly large, so why would you think there is any significance to your observation?

                              --Jimmy4164

                              Do you think this might be because the total number of drawings conducted thus far in the Ohio Classic Lotto is minuscule compared to the total possibilities, 13,983,816?

                              That could be true because I tracked Buckeye5(5/37) and Rolling Cash5(5/39) and they didn't have any of their  winning combinations repeat until after 0.1% of their possible combinations had been drawn.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking