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# 649 formula

Topic closed. 109 replies. Last post 4 years ago by RJOh.

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United States
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July 10, 2010
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 Posted: June 5, 2013, 7:52 pm - IP Logged

RJOh,

"For anyone who's interested, 958 completed cycles of 49 numbers appearing  could be counted in the 997 drawings of Ohio Classic Lotto that varies from 19 to 65 drawings.  Below are those results"

It looks like the Ohio Classic is in the "Ballpark" with my random number generator.

I double checked my code, ran it for 20,000 iterations, and got:

Low    Mean   Median  High  Std Dev
14    35.2     34    116     9.6

Which menas that about 95% of the time it's going to fall between 16 and 54.4.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule

--Jimmy4164

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July 25, 2012
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 Posted: June 5, 2013, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

RJOh wrote:  ``For anyone who's interested, 958 completed cycles of 49 numbers appearing  could be counted in the 997 drawings of Ohio Classic Lotto that varies from 19 to 65 drawings.``

And that is consistent with my analysis of the 31-year(!) data for the Canada 6/49 lotto:  19 to 64 drawings for all 49 numbers to appear in the first 6 numbers (not considering the bonus number), with a mean of 36 +/-2 rounded (with 95% confidence).

FYI, Gwoof, when the bonus number is included (i.e. a draw of 7 numbers from the same pool of 49), there is only a small difference, to wit:  18 to 63 drawings with a mean of 32 +/-2 rounded (95% confidence).

Jimmy4164 wrote:  ``I think your first pass at the simulation was the correct one!  When I noticed the questions here, I wrote a "quick and dirty" program to see what I get.  With 10,000 Trials, I got a mean number of draws of 35.05``.

Actually, that demonstrates that neither of my "passes" is correct.  I'll have to look for a programming error later.  But the mean of your simulation is consistent with my analysis of the Canada 6/49 past numbers.  QED.

Sorry for the misdirection.

Jimmy4164 wrote:  ``I think your first pass at the simulation was the correct one! ``

I wrote:  ``Actually, that demonstrates that neither of my "passes" is correct.``

Looking back, I see you are correct.  But my first reported results were in the ballpark only by coincidence.  The design of the simulation was incorrect.  However, I suspect I introduced a programming error when I corrected the design, resulting in a wildly incorrect result.

Kentucky
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 Posted: June 5, 2013, 8:10 pm - IP Logged

For anyone who's interested, 958 completed cycles of 49 numbers appearing  could be counted in the 997 drawings of Ohio Classic Lotto that varies from 19 to 65 drawings.  Below are those results

0: 0     10: 0     20: 4      30: 53    40: 26    50: 12
1: 0     11: 0     21: 9      31: 54    41: 21    51: 10
2: 0     12: 0     22: 18    32: 54    42: 19    52: 9
3: 0     13: 0     23: 20    33: 47    43: 16    53: 9
4: 0     14: 0     24: 28    34: 38    44: 15    54: 7
5: 0     15: 0     25: 34    35: 37    45: 13    55: 6
6: 0     16: 0     26: 37    36: 39    46: 13    56: 5
7: 0     17: 0     27: 41    37: 35    47: 13    57: 4
8: 0     18: 0     28: 44    38: 33    48: 13    58: 4
9: 0     19: 3     29: 49    39: 34    49: 12    59: 4

60: 4     70: 0     80: 0     90: 0
61: 3     71: 0     81: 0     91: 0
62: 3     72: 0     82: 0     92: 0
63: 2     73: 0     83: 0     93: 0
64: 2     74: 0     84: 0     94: 0
65: 2     75: 0     85: 0     95: 0
66: 0     76: 0     86: 0     96: 0
67: 0     77: 0     87: 0     97: 0
68: 0     78: 0     88: 0     98: 0
69: 0     79: 0     89: 0     99: 0

It looks like the sweet spot is between 25 and 39 drawings and it looks unlikely that will ever reach 90.

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: June 6, 2013, 2:46 pm - IP Logged

It looks like the sweet spot is between 25 and 39 drawings and it looks unlikely that will ever reach 90.

For this Saturday drawing all 49 numbers in OCL has come up in the last 31 drawings which is right in the middle of that "sweet spot", I wonder if that going to make it easier for someone to win the jackpot.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States
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 Posted: June 6, 2013, 4:04 pm - IP Logged

For this Saturday drawing all 49 numbers in OCL has come up in the last 31 drawings which is right in the middle of that "sweet spot", I wonder if that going to make it easier for someone to win the jackpot.

"I wonder if that going to make it easier for someone to win the jackpot."

What do you think Gloria C. Mackenzie's answer would be to this question?

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: June 6, 2013, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

"I wonder if that going to make it easier for someone to win the jackpot."

What do you think Gloria C. Mackenzie's answer would be to this question?

I have no idea what she would answer but I doubt if she would say very much since she hasn't said very much about her jackpot win.

Since OCL jackpots have been won very few times, if I get the chance I might go back and check what the number distribution patterns were when they were won to see if there is a pattern.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Park City, UT
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 Posted: June 6, 2013, 7:27 pm - IP Logged

I'm still trying to figure out the usefulness of this information as a lottery filter.

Jimmy

bgonÃ§alves
Brasil
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June 9, 2010
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 Posted: June 6, 2013, 8:54 pm - IP Logged
Hello, gwoff, good if you are playing a lottery 49/6 half already hit 100% of any lot, can check the draw can be simulated up will always hit 100%, but initial attention are the digits 0 through 4 garanatido this 100% clear lack wing terminations 0a 9, but the front does not need to worry ok
As for cycles, one filter is numbered lines within each cycle = example at the moment after you're starting a new line noa 16 numbers that in 16:17 cycles of cycles, you can delete a numbers 30,
Below the matrix always perfect hits half (digit initial 100%)
000000
000001
000002
000003
000004
000011
000012
000013
000014
000022
000023
000024
000033
000034
000 044
000111
000 112
000 113
000 114
000 122
000123
000124
000 133
000134
000144
000222
000 223
000 224
000 233
000 234
000 244
000333
000334
000 344
000 444
001111
001 112
001 113
001114
001122
001123
001124
001 133
001 134
001 144
001 222
001 223
001 224
001 233
001234
001244
001 333
001 334
001 344
001 444
002222
002 223
002 224
002 233
002 234
002 244
002 333
002 334
002,344
002 444
003333
003 334
003 344
003 444
004 444
011111
011 112
011 113
011 114
011 122
011 123
011 124
011 133
011 134
011 144
011 222
011 223
011 224
011 233
011 234
011 244
011 333
011 334
011 344
011 444
012 222
012 223
012 224
012 233
012 234
012 244
012 333
012 334
012 344
012 444
013 333
013 334
013 344
013 444
014 444
022 222
022 223
022 224
022 233
022 234
022 244
022 333
022 334
022 344
022 444
023 333
023 334
023 344
023 444
024 444
033 333
033 334
033 344
033 444
034 444
044 444
111111
111112
111113
111114
111122
111123
111124
111133
111134
111144
111222
111223
111224
111 233
111234
111244
111333
111 334
111344
111444
112222
112223
112224
112233
112234
112244
112333
112334
112344
112444
113333
113334
113344
113444
114 444
122222
122223
122224
122233
122234
122244
122333
122334
122 344
122444
123333
123334
123344
123444
124444
133333
133334
133344
133444
134444
144444
222222
222223
222224
222233
222234
222244
222333
222334
222344
222444
223333
223334
223344
223444
224444
233333
233334
233344
233444
234444
244444
333333
333334
333344
333444
334444
344444
444444
D
Kentucky
United States
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February 14, 2006
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 Posted: June 7, 2013, 12:11 am - IP Logged

I'm still trying to figure out the usefulness of this information as a lottery filter.

Jimmy

They should create a chart like yours and simply count how many drawings the last number skips and average it. Or just wait until the last number is drawn and they do the analysis.

mid-Ohio
United States
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 Posted: June 7, 2013, 3:15 am - IP Logged

I'm still trying to figure out the usefulness of this information as a lottery filter.

Jimmy

Have you even figured out the usefulness of filtering when trying to pick a lottery winner?  The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Park City, UT
United States
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January 18, 2009
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 Posted: June 7, 2013, 5:16 am - IP Logged

They should create a chart like yours and simply count how many drawings the last number skips and average it. Or just wait until the last number is drawn and they do the analysis.

My software already calculates what the skip counts are for each number for a particular draw.  I guess my point is that I have not found the information all that useful because as a filter the skip counts by themselves do not eliminate all that many combinations without you being very specific.  I have other filters that are more mathematically predictable that eliminate a lot more combinations.

Jimmy

Park City, UT
United States
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 Posted: June 7, 2013, 5:47 am - IP Logged

Have you even figured out the usefulness of filtering when trying to pick a lottery winner?  The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever.

As I said in a previous thread for a 5/39 game combinations of the following form L L A H H eliminate around 200,000 combinations.  Where L is a number between 1-19, and H is a number between 20-39, and A stands for ANY meaning it can be either Low or High.  70 out of the last 100 draws in Ohio Rolling Cash 5 would pass this filter.

I'm not currently doing any pick 6 games but I would expect L L A A H H would do very well as a filter for a 6/49 game.

Another useful filter if you like filtering out past winning combinations is the delta of a winning combination.

For example the draw 02-10-19-30-36 can be represented as B2-B1, B3-B2, B4-B3, B5-B4 or 10-2, 19-10, 30-19, 36-30 or 8-9-11-6

So you would have the following combinations or delta set using the delta signature of 8-9-11-6

01-09-18-29-35
02-10-19-30-36
03-11-20-31-37
04-12-21-32-38
05-13-22-33-39

Typically the delta signature is unique in the draw history as well and you can eliminate the entire delta set fairly reliably.  So using this filter you could eliminate more than just the past winners but all the past winners and the corresponding delta members or each delta set for each past winner.

Jimmy

United States
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 Posted: June 7, 2013, 6:23 pm - IP Logged

Have you even figured out the usefulness of filtering when trying to pick a lottery winner?  The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever.

RJOh,

"The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever."

Do you think this might be because the total number of drawings conducted thus far in the Ohio Classic Lotto is minuscule compared to the total possibilities, 13,983,816?

The number of combinations not yet draw is overwhelmingly large, so why would you think there is any significance to your observation?

--Jimmy4164

United States
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July 25, 2012
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 Posted: June 7, 2013, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

RJOh,

"The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever."

Do you think this might be because the total number of drawings conducted thus far in the Ohio Classic Lotto is minuscule compared to the total possibilities, 13,983,816?

The number of combinations not yet draw is overwhelmingly large, so why would you think there is any significance to your observation?

--Jimmy4164

I cannot say with impunity what RJOh meant, but this is how I interpret his comment.  My observations about about the 3,819,816 combinations of "regular" numbers for the MegaMillions 5/56.  My data is a little out of date:  827 drawings from 6/24/2005 through 5/24/2013.

If I select a combination (for my ticket) that exactly matches a previous drawing, I would exclude it because there is only an 827-in-3,819,816 chance (0.02%) that the next drawing would repeat a previous drawing.

It's not that it cannot happen; all 5-tuple combinations are possible.  Moreover, the chance of a duplicate will increase over time.  But it's still very unlikely, to say the least.

Each ticket and drawing has C(5,4) = 5 quads.  And there are C(56,4) = 363,175 unique quads total.

Empirically, among the past 827 drawings, there have been 4095 unique quads and 20 quads that appeared twice -- 4135 in all (= 827*5).  So the current probability of a duplicate quad is 20-in-4135 (0.48%).

Again, that probability will increase over time.  But since we have seen only about 1.12% of all 4-tuples (4115 / 367,290), I would guess that it will take some time for the probability of duplication quads to become significant.

So I would exclude a selection that includes a quad that has appeared in any previous drawing.

What about 3-tuples (triples)?

Each ticket and drawing has C(5,3) = 10 triples.  And there are C(56,3) = 27,720 unique triples overall.

Empirically, we have see about 26% of all triples (7145 / 27,720) in the first 827 drawings.  The breakdown is:  6133 triples appearing once, 905 triples appearing twice, 101 appearing 3 times, and 6 appearing 4 times.  And again, the frequency of "duplicates" (including more than 2 times) will increase over time.

Also empirically, in the past year, 88% of the drawings have had 1 to 4 duplicate triples -- that is, triples that appeared in previous drawings.  And 56% of the drawings have had 2 or 3 duplicates.

So I might (operative word) exclude a selection that has more than 4 duplicate triples (for now).  I might even favor selections that have 2 or 3 duplicate triples (for now).

What about 2-tuples (pairs)?

I'll spare you the computational details.  There are C(56,2) = 1540 pairs, and we have seen them all but one  in the past 827 drawings.  Each ticket and drawing has C(5,2) = 10 pairs.  And in the past year, 94% of the drawings has 10 duplicate pairs -- that is, pairs that appeared in previous drawings; and the remainder have had 9 duplicate pairs.

So there is no point in trying to exclude drawings with duplicate pairs; it cannot be done.  In fact, most drawings will have 10 duplicate pairs now.  (One future drawing should have only 9 duplicate pairs. ;->)

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: June 7, 2013, 7:35 pm - IP Logged

RJOh,

"The only thing I've ever figured out is winning combinations seldom repeat if ever."

Do you think this might be because the total number of drawings conducted thus far in the Ohio Classic Lotto is minuscule compared to the total possibilities, 13,983,816?

The number of combinations not yet draw is overwhelmingly large, so why would you think there is any significance to your observation?

--Jimmy4164

Do you think this might be because the total number of drawings conducted thus far in the Ohio Classic Lotto is minuscule compared to the total possibilities, 13,983,816?

That could be true because I tracked Buckeye5(5/37) and Rolling Cash5(5/39) and they didn't have any of their  winning combinations repeat until after 0.1% of their possible combinations had been drawn.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

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