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649 formula

Topic closed. 109 replies. Last post 3 years ago by RJOh.

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Kentucky
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Posted: June 10, 2013, 2:35 am - IP Logged

It's difficult because it's an insufficient and misleading statement.  Mathhead, RJOh, and myself went to the trouble to do the calculations; all you did was come to kibitz.

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/262010/3100543

"It's difficult because it's an insufficient and misleading statement."

What is so difficult about answering a question

"Is there away to calculate the average number of games it would take for all the numbers from 1 to 49 to appear over the history of a 649 game or do you have to run down through the history 1 game at a time to check how long it takes."

with "You'll never get an exact number because some number have gone 50, 60, or more drawings without being drawn" and giving a ball park average?

"Mathhead, RJOh, and myself went to the trouble to do the calculations; all you did was come to kibitz."

AFTER I told Gwoof "Since the length of skips varied from 19 to 56 as RJ pointed out over 260 drawings, it might be very difficult coming up with a usable average.", you told them " 90 is closer to the expected average." and you even quoted Mathhead who acknowledged their answer was based on a mistake in programming. The only difficulty I saw was you trying to do the correct calculations when the second post on this thread said you'll never get an exact number because the length of skips can vary greatly.

Mathhead's original guess should have satisfied everyone (it seemed close enough for RJ and me). And considering Gwoof never answered when Jimjwright wondered about "the usefulness of this information as a lottery filter" why are you still trying to make a mountain out of mole hill?

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    Horwood NL
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    Posted: June 10, 2013, 8:18 am - IP Logged

    Sorry for not commenting earlier. I don't no if you could call it a filter . What I was thinking if you had an average for the length of games it would take to include all the numbers from 1 to 49 instead of the 80% in 20 games you would be able to see by taking that average segement of the history in your game, how the numbers performed in that group and comparing it to another average group and would the 20% make much difference to the results. I don't know if anyone else uses the 80% in 20 games when they are looking for numbers to play. I was thinking the closer I could get to 100% my ("Guesstamating"?) for the numbers to play would be that much better. I'm trying different groups between 25 and 55 from the history to see if there is much change in the performence of the numbers.

     Thanks, you have all been a great help.

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      Kentucky
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      Posted: June 10, 2013, 3:27 pm - IP Logged

      Sorry for not commenting earlier. I don't no if you could call it a filter . What I was thinking if you had an average for the length of games it would take to include all the numbers from 1 to 49 instead of the 80% in 20 games you would be able to see by taking that average segement of the history in your game, how the numbers performed in that group and comparing it to another average group and would the 20% make much difference to the results. I don't know if anyone else uses the 80% in 20 games when they are looking for numbers to play. I was thinking the closer I could get to 100% my ("Guesstamating"?) for the numbers to play would be that much better. I'm trying different groups between 25 and 55 from the history to see if there is much change in the performence of the numbers.

       Thanks, you have all been a great help.

      If the data you're looking for depends on an equal amount of drawings, it will have to be your best guess because there is no set amount of drawings and there will be times when that won't show all 49 numbers drawn. If you don't need a set amount of drawings, just go back to the number of drawings when all 49 numbers were drawn.

      The Atlantic 6/49 creates a difference set of circumstances because the bonus (seventh) number is one of the remaining numbers, but doesn't contribute to a jackpot win and looks like it only effects the second prize. Whether or not to include the bonus number depends on how you want to analyze the statistics. The LP drawing statistics include the bonus number, but predicting the bonus number won't help you win the jackpot.

      Good luck on finding what you're looking for!


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        Posted: June 10, 2013, 5:52 pm - IP Logged

        Mathhead & Yoho,

        Trying to demonstrate to people here that it is FUTILE to attempt to predict lottery draws by looking back at previous draws... IS FUTILE!  The stakes are too high for the most aggressive of our obfuscators.  If we were to succeed in helping too many people to understand their futility, at least ONE of our detractors would have to go out and get a REAL JOB!  This same ONE thinks he's the "smartest guy in the room" as he dismisses our work as hogwash, but fails to realize how telling it is when a barrage is repeatedly launched against our "hogwash!"  Smile

        --Jimmy4164

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          Horwood NL
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          Posted: June 10, 2013, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

          Am I to understand then even though the bonus number comes out of the machine at the same time as the 6 regular numbers it would not have an effect on the 6 regular numbers in the following draws since all the balls have an equal chance of dropping? I always thought it might have an effect. I have always used it in my search for a winning combination. If that's the case I will have to rethink my methods.

            CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
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            Posted: June 10, 2013, 6:36 pm - IP Logged

            If all the balls are in the same machine and they use the first 6 balls as the draw and the 7th ball as the bonus, why wouldn't they all be in your analysis? Instead of asking, how many draws does it take for a 6/49, why not ask how many draws doesit take for a 7/49? Just asking!!

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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              Posted: June 10, 2013, 10:51 pm - IP Logged

              If all the balls are in the same machine and they use the first 6 balls as the draw and the 7th ball as the bonus, why wouldn't they all be in your analysis? Instead of asking, how many draws does it take for a 6/49, why not ask how many draws doesit take for a 7/49? Just asking!!

              Any question can be asked, it's getting a correct answer that's the problem.  Questions are usually asked by players who wants someone else to expend the effort to get an answer.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                Posted: June 11, 2013, 12:02 am - IP Logged

                Mathhead & Yoho,

                Trying to demonstrate to people here that it is FUTILE to attempt to predict lottery draws by looking back at previous draws... IS FUTILE!  The stakes are too high for the most aggressive of our obfuscators.  If we were to succeed in helping too many people to understand their futility, at least ONE of our detractors would have to go out and get a REAL JOB!  This same ONE thinks he's the "smartest guy in the room" as he dismisses our work as hogwash, but fails to realize how telling it is when a barrage is repeatedly launched against our "hogwash!"  Smile

                --Jimmy4164

                Are you suggesting that any effort beyond using quick picks and combinations of birth dates is a waste of time?  Players who pick their own combinations aren't picking them for the benefits of anyone other than themselves.  If they chose to post their picks on the prediction board, who does it harm?  Playing the lotteries is limited to adults.  Why should players picking their own combinations care any more about your opinion than you care about theirs?

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: June 11, 2013, 12:58 am - IP Logged

                  Am I to understand then even though the bonus number comes out of the machine at the same time as the 6 regular numbers it would not have an effect on the 6 regular numbers in the following draws since all the balls have an equal chance of dropping? I always thought it might have an effect. I have always used it in my search for a winning combination. If that's the case I will have to rethink my methods.

                  The only benefit of matching the bonus number is the matching five of the six drawn numbers plus the bonus number. Successfully picking the bonus number won't help you win the jackpot. If I was looking for say 18 numbers that consistently match three or more numbers, I might exclude the bonus number because matching the bonus number wouldn't give me a three or more numbers match.

                  For statistics, either always use the bonus number or never use it. Over time you may discover which way benefits your results the most.

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                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: June 11, 2013, 1:12 am - IP Logged

                    If all the balls are in the same machine and they use the first 6 balls as the draw and the 7th ball as the bonus, why wouldn't they all be in your analysis? Instead of asking, how many draws does it take for a 6/49, why not ask how many draws doesit take for a 7/49? Just asking!!

                    It's really a tough call whether or not to include the bonus number because the seventh and bonus number drawn only applies to matching the second prize of 5 + 1 in the Atlantic game.

                     

                    Match  Prize Amount 
                    6 of 6CA$1 Million
                    5 of 6 + BonusCA$64,900
                    5 of 6CA$649
                    4 of 6CA$64
                    3 of 6CA$6

                     

                    Ohio had a similar game called Super Lotto Plus that drew a seventh and bonus number too, but that game paid for matching 3 + 1 and 4 + 1. I know RJ remembers that game because he made a nice hit on the final drawing.

                     

                    Match
                    Final Prize Amount
                    Number of Winners
                    5 + Bonus Ball$500,0002
                    5 No Bonus Ball$35,71528
                    4 + Bonus Ball$13,51474
                    4 No Bonus Ball$6521,535
                    3 + Bonus Ball$4722,119
                    3 No Bonus Ball$3826,878

                    The jackpot wasn't hit on the final so the cash value rolled down to all the secondary prizes.

                    Match
                     
                    Current Prize
                     
                     
                    5 + Bonus Ball$10,000
                    5 No Bonus Ball$1,500
                    4 + Bonus Ball$500
                    4 No Bonus Ball$100
                    3 + Bonus Ball$5
                    3 No Bonus Ball$1

                    This chart shows what was the normal prize distribution. Matching 5 + 0 paid 23 times more and matching 5 + 1 paid 50 times more.


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                      Posted: June 11, 2013, 4:37 pm - IP Logged

                      Are you suggesting that any effort beyond using quick picks and combinations of birth dates is a waste of time?  Players who pick their own combinations aren't picking them for the benefits of anyone other than themselves.  If they chose to post their picks on the prediction board, who does it harm?  Playing the lotteries is limited to adults.  Why should players picking their own combinations care any more about your opinion than you care about theirs?

                      RJOh,

                      You asked, "Are you suggesting that any effort beyond using quick picks and combinations of birth dates is a waste of time?"

                      If you read below, you can answer your own question.

                      Please excuse me for paraphrasing myself.

                      Yes!  You CAN effect the DISTRIBUTION of your winnings!

                      The mathematics governing probability in lottery games is elementary and pathetically simple.  There's no  logical reason AGAINST selecting your numbers in any way you wish.  You won't lose [or win] any more than the Quick Pick players!  What I have been repeatedly trying to tell you is that, over the long haul, it makes absolutely no difference how you select your numbers.  In the short run, the following example best illustrates the [only] control you have over the distribution of your winnings:

                      If you spend $10 per day buying 10 identical $1 straight tickets on your favorite [of the day] Pick-3 number, over time, on average, you will win $5000 about once every 3 years.  If you're lucky, and you happen to win $5000 early in the process, I would recommend that you, "take the money and run!"  Alternatively, if you spend that same $10 on your Top Ten favorite numbers [of the day,] over time, on average, you will win $500 about every 3 months.

                      You pays your money, you takes your choice.

                      If you prefer to buy $1 box tickets, or "50 - 50" tickets, your long term winnings will be the same, about $5000 every three years.  The difference will be that you will get many more SMALLER wins.  The important thing to remember is that whatever your strategy is, [roughly] every 3 years you will spend $10,000 to win $5000!  (Unless you are one of the lucky few!)  Anyone who tells you you can engineer a way to be one of those lucky few, is either suffering from innumeracy, or is trying to sell you something!

                      Please note that I have NOT set down any rules of play.  They are your choice, and this discussion can be extrapolated to a 6/49 game or any other - different numbers, same ideas.

                      Be my guest, LOOK BACK, FILTER, and have a ball!

                      --Jimmy4164


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                        Posted: June 11, 2013, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

                        RJOh,

                        You asked, "Are you suggesting that any effort beyond using quick picks and combinations of birth dates is a waste of time?"

                        If you read below, you can answer your own question.

                        Please excuse me for paraphrasing myself.

                        Yes!  You CAN effect the DISTRIBUTION of your winnings!

                        The mathematics governing probability in lottery games is elementary and pathetically simple.  There's no  logical reason AGAINST selecting your numbers in any way you wish.  You won't lose [or win] any more than the Quick Pick players!  What I have been repeatedly trying to tell you is that, over the long haul, it makes absolutely no difference how you select your numbers.  In the short run, the following example best illustrates the [only] control you have over the distribution of your winnings:

                        If you spend $10 per day buying 10 identical $1 straight tickets on your favorite [of the day] Pick-3 number, over time, on average, you will win $5000 about once every 3 years.  If you're lucky, and you happen to win $5000 early in the process, I would recommend that you, "take the money and run!"  Alternatively, if you spend that same $10 on your Top Ten favorite numbers [of the day,] over time, on average, you will win $500 about every 3 months.

                        You pays your money, you takes your choice.

                        If you prefer to buy $1 box tickets, or "50 - 50" tickets, your long term winnings will be the same, about $5000 every three years.  The difference will be that you will get many more SMALLER wins.  The important thing to remember is that whatever your strategy is, [roughly] every 3 years you will spend $10,000 to win $5000!  (Unless you are one of the lucky few!)  Anyone who tells you you can engineer a way to be one of those lucky few, is either suffering from innumeracy, or is trying to sell you something!

                        Please note that I have NOT set down any rules of play.  They are your choice, and this discussion can be extrapolated to a 6/49 game or any other - different numbers, same ideas.

                        Be my guest, LOOK BACK, FILTER, and have a ball!

                        --Jimmy4164

                         What I have been repeatedly trying to tell you is that, over the long haul, it makes absolutely no difference how you select your numbers

                        What about the short haul Jammy?


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                          Posted: June 11, 2013, 8:05 pm - IP Logged

                          RJOh,

                          You asked, "Are you suggesting that any effort beyond using quick picks and combinations of birth dates is a waste of time?"

                          If you read below, you can answer your own question.

                          Please excuse me for paraphrasing myself.

                          Yes!  You CAN effect the DISTRIBUTION of your winnings!

                          The mathematics governing probability in lottery games is elementary and pathetically simple.  There's no  logical reason AGAINST selecting your numbers in any way you wish.  You won't lose [or win] any more than the Quick Pick players!  What I have been repeatedly trying to tell you is that, over the long haul, it makes absolutely no difference how you select your numbers.  In the short run, the following example best illustrates the [only] control you have over the distribution of your winnings:

                          If you spend $10 per day buying 10 identical $1 straight tickets on your favorite [of the day] Pick-3 number, over time, on average, you will win $5000 about once every 3 years.  If you're lucky, and you happen to win $5000 early in the process, I would recommend that you, "take the money and run!"  Alternatively, if you spend that same $10 on your Top Ten favorite numbers [of the day,] over time, on average, you will win $500 about every 3 months.

                          You pays your money, you takes your choice.

                          If you prefer to buy $1 box tickets, or "50 - 50" tickets, your long term winnings will be the same, about $5000 every three years.  The difference will be that you will get many more SMALLER wins.  The important thing to remember is that whatever your strategy is, [roughly] every 3 years you will spend $10,000 to win $5000!  (Unless you are one of the lucky few!)  Anyone who tells you you can engineer a way to be one of those lucky few, is either suffering from innumeracy, or is trying to sell you something!

                          Please note that I have NOT set down any rules of play.  They are your choice, and this discussion can be extrapolated to a 6/49 game or any other - different numbers, same ideas.

                          Be my guest, LOOK BACK, FILTER, and have a ball!

                          --Jimmy4164

                          http://alum.mit.edu/pages/sliceofmit/2012/08/14/winning-the-lottery/

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                            Kentucky
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                            Posted: June 11, 2013, 10:45 pm - IP Logged

                            I guess that proves some mathematicians use their knowledge to win money and our resident pretend mathematicans just spread the BS.

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                              Posted: June 11, 2013, 11:05 pm - IP Logged

                               What I have been repeatedly trying to tell you is that, over the long haul, it makes absolutely no difference how you select your numbers

                              What about the short haul Jammy?

                              Have you noticed how Jimmy tries to take over even the simplest topics because of his Delusions of Grandeur?

                              Maybe he can explain the difference between my answer "You'll never get an exact number because some number have gone 50, 60, or more drawings without being drawn and it's possible for all 49 numbers to be drawn in under 20 drawings." and his answer "90 is closer to the expected average." his second answer "Which menas that about 95% of the time it's going to fall between 16 and 54.4. " he gave a day and 1/2 later. 

                              "I double checked my code, ran it for 20,000 iterations, and got:"

                              Aw, so that's the difference.