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The new odds for Mega Millions have been a failure!

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 2 years ago by maringoman.

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veganlife125's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

United States
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May 18, 2013
263 Posts
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Posted: June 17, 2014, 8:52 pm - IP Logged

The new odds for Mega Millions have been a failure.  They promised higher jackpots more often.  We can't even get to our first billion!

The Mega Millions commission didn't go high enough on the odds.  It takes well over 20 draws to get the jackpot in the 1 - 2 billion range.  Considering 104 draws a year you need a winner every 26 draws(3 months).  With 4 winners a year take home would be 4 - 8 billion a year.  4 different winning tickets could be worth up to 600 million EACH after all taxes are paid.   It would be a win for the commission and the players.  They just didn't have the guts to go high enough or to cheap to hire a mathematician. 

I remember all the people here acting like the new 1 in 256 million odds was going to create years of wait for a winner LOL.  All that happened was going from 12 winners a year down to about 8.

Now to get this the commission is going to have to raise the odds over 500 million to 1.  2 hoppers with 44 balls each drawing the usual 5 & 1 would do it.  It would give odds of approximately 550 million to 1 is what one online lotto calculator tallied but you get the point.  Problem solved. 

Don't change the $1 play.  This is a WalMart society after all Big Grin.   

I don't suggest changing PowerBall one bit for their followers.  They want the starting 40 million jackpot won every draw split 4000 ways to spread it around a little bit!ROFL

Don't forget to visit the Lottery Post Gift Shop!

    noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
    Bay Area - California
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    Member #136477
    December 12, 2012
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    Posted: June 17, 2014, 9:16 pm - IP Logged

    ..So l guess you telling us that winning the Mega Millions jackpot is " too easy" .

    By the way how many times have you won the MM since they raised it to 256 million odds?- if not, what are your present chances of winning at .......

    "the odds over 500 million to 1.  2 hoppers with 44 balls each drawing the usual 5 & 1"

      maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
      Massachusetts
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      April 14, 2006
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      Posted: June 17, 2014, 9:16 pm - IP Logged

      The new odds for Mega Millions have been a failure.  They promised higher jackpots more often. 

      I actually thought we'd see $500M JPs more often. I don't even think we've had one since the matrix changes. Have we?

      There was a time I never skipped MM draws but now I do and I don't ever feel guilty. My budget is down to $4 a week for MM Evil

      That money's gone fo ever

        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
        Happyland
        United States
        Member #146344
        September 1, 2013
        1129 Posts
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        Posted: June 17, 2014, 9:19 pm - IP Logged

        The new odds for Mega Millions have been a failure.  They promised higher jackpots more often.  We can't even get to our first billion!

        The Mega Millions commission didn't go high enough on the odds.  It takes well over 20 draws to get the jackpot in the 1 - 2 billion range.  Considering 104 draws a year you need a winner every 26 draws(3 months).  With 4 winners a year take home would be 4 - 8 billion a year.  4 different winning tickets could be worth up to 600 million EACH after all taxes are paid.   It would be a win for the commission and the players.  They just didn't have the guts to go high enough or to cheap to hire a mathematician. 

        I remember all the people here acting like the new 1 in 256 million odds was going to create years of wait for a winner LOL.  All that happened was going from 12 winners a year down to about 8.

        Now to get this the commission is going to have to raise the odds over 500 million to 1.  2 hoppers with 44 balls each drawing the usual 5 & 1 would do it.  It would give odds of approximately 550 million to 1 is what one online lotto calculator tallied but you get the point.  Problem solved. 

        Don't change the $1 play.  This is a WalMart society after all Big Grin.   

        I don't suggest changing PowerBall one bit for their followers.  They want the starting 40 million jackpot won every draw split 4000 ways to spread it around a little bit!ROFL

        Being a lottery enthusiast, I hate the low jackpots and odds just as much as the next player. But the lotteries do not have players' interests at heart.

        "We can't even get to our first billion!"

        As I've said and keep saying, this is exactly what they don't want. Every lottery director I have heard from (at last count, 5) dreads reaching this level. They're actually already thinking of ideas to prevent it from ever reaching/surpassing that point.

        "They just didn't have the guts to go high enough or to cheap to hire a mathematician."

        I can assure you that they don't pull any matrix out of thin air. They spend months (sometimes years) crunching the numbers. They created the current matrix with the understanding that there is a slight chance of a billion dollar jackpot, but not too high a chance. The primary goal was to get back to competing with Powerball. The only way to do that was raise the price or raise the odds. They have a "sweet spot" on the projected number of jackpot winners per year that maximizes sale revenues for that price point, which is why the odds are where they are.

        "I don't suggest changing PowerBall one bit for their followers."

        Too bad Smiley. A matrix change is coming for Powerball. Don't know the date yet but it could be later this year. As far as I know they are leaving the main pool alone but expanding the bonus pool. Adding second-chance entry for it too, possibly to coincide with the new $5 game

        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

          mrcraft's avatar - images3lp4 zps7dbb4a10.jpg
          Los Angeles, California
          United States
          Member #149492
          December 2, 2013
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          Posted: June 17, 2014, 9:22 pm - IP Logged

          The new odds for Mega Millions have been a failure.  They promised higher jackpots more often. 

          I actually thought we'd see $500M JPs more often. I don't even think we've had one since the matrix changes. Have we?

          There was a time I never skipped MM draws but now I do and I don't ever feel guilty. My budget is down to $4 a week for MM Evil

          We did once.  It was around Christmas.  Remember all the talk that it was going to hit a billion dollars.  Then, two people, one in San Jose and the other in Atlanta shard the jackpot.  It was $648 million, probably 2-3 draws from a $1 billion.

          Me too.  I could care less if I skip a draw now.  My budget is even lower, mainly because we don't have the megaplier.  I play $1 twice a week.

            veganlife125's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

            United States
            Member #142777
            May 18, 2013
            263 Posts
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            Posted: June 17, 2014, 10:19 pm - IP Logged

            To Noise-Gate:  Of course its astronomically hard/impossible either way my friend but you know we are just playing a fantasy anyhow so why not make it a bigger one right?  Its entertainment for a few hours no?  Of course if our numbers come up sweet.  I mean if your out with your buddies and decide to head home late but need a quick meal do you get the best fantasy/entertainment stopping by Waffle House or Hooters right quick? lol

             

            To Maringoman & Mr. Craft:  Im with you on the budget.  I spend even less only $1 each MegaMillions draw.  I will spend $2 on Powerball each draw that gets to 300 million +.

             

            To LottoMetro:  Interesting post lottometro.  Id have to disagree with the MegaMillions directors logic.  They have regressed against PowerBall if anything.  To make head wind against PowerBall you must keep your pot above them more draws out of the year.  The opposite is happening now considering PowerBall has the trump card of the 40 million starting pot that keeps them above MM if MM is going to be reset to 10 million so often.  The horrible economy has forced so many players to choose between the two after they pump gas.  Enough average players will buy a ticket of the highest jackpot between PB & MM when push comes to shove even for a dollar more, no?  MM better get their odds up or go to a starting jackpot thats higher than PowerBall.  I hope its the former.

            Don't forget to visit the Lottery Post Gift Shop!


              United States
              Member #128790
              June 2, 2012
              5431 Posts
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              Posted: June 17, 2014, 11:10 pm - IP Logged

              The new odds for Mega Millions have been a failure.  They promised higher jackpots more often.  We can't even get to our first billion!

              The Mega Millions commission didn't go high enough on the odds.  It takes well over 20 draws to get the jackpot in the 1 - 2 billion range.  Considering 104 draws a year you need a winner every 26 draws(3 months).  With 4 winners a year take home would be 4 - 8 billion a year.  4 different winning tickets could be worth up to 600 million EACH after all taxes are paid.   It would be a win for the commission and the players.  They just didn't have the guts to go high enough or to cheap to hire a mathematician. 

              I remember all the people here acting like the new 1 in 256 million odds was going to create years of wait for a winner LOL.  All that happened was going from 12 winners a year down to about 8.

              Now to get this the commission is going to have to raise the odds over 500 million to 1.  2 hoppers with 44 balls each drawing the usual 5 & 1 would do it.  It would give odds of approximately 550 million to 1 is what one online lotto calculator tallied but you get the point.  Problem solved. 

              Don't change the $1 play.  This is a WalMart society after all Big Grin.   

              I don't suggest changing PowerBall one bit for their followers.  They want the starting 40 million jackpot won every draw split 4000 ways to spread it around a little bit!ROFL

               They promised higher jackpots more often. 

               

              I guess you can say their numbers didn't show up either..lol

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                frontenac, kansas
                United States
                Member #67724
                December 3, 2008
                199 Posts
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                Posted: June 17, 2014, 11:22 pm - IP Logged

                Myself i like the mega million is running and i always play the megaplier with it.  I find that I am hitting mega million more often than i ever was only because i am hitting the megaplier....not as many number in megaplier as there was before the change.  Now i have not hit any great amounts but have hit several times up to 50 bucks or so...

                Another reason i like the megaplier is you can still win what is it if you hit all the white balls....2 to 5 million dollars.  I like that too.

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                  Kentucky
                  United States
                  Member #32652
                  February 14, 2006
                  7308 Posts
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                  Posted: June 18, 2014, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

                  Myself i like the mega million is running and i always play the megaplier with it.  I find that I am hitting mega million more often than i ever was only because i am hitting the megaplier....not as many number in megaplier as there was before the change.  Now i have not hit any great amounts but have hit several times up to 50 bucks or so...

                  Another reason i like the megaplier is you can still win what is it if you hit all the white balls....2 to 5 million dollars.  I like that too.

                  "I find that I am hitting mega million more often than i ever was only because i am hitting the megaplier....not as many number in megaplier as there was before the change."

                  It looks like you mean you're hitting the bonus number more often after they decreased from 46 to 15. The Megaplier is a $1 side bet where any winnings are multiplied 2 to 5 times.

                    Avatar
                    Kentucky
                    United States
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                    February 14, 2006
                    7308 Posts
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                    Posted: June 18, 2014, 2:43 pm - IP Logged

                    The new odds for Mega Millions have been a failure.  They promised higher jackpots more often.  We can't even get to our first billion!

                    The Mega Millions commission didn't go high enough on the odds.  It takes well over 20 draws to get the jackpot in the 1 - 2 billion range.  Considering 104 draws a year you need a winner every 26 draws(3 months).  With 4 winners a year take home would be 4 - 8 billion a year.  4 different winning tickets could be worth up to 600 million EACH after all taxes are paid.   It would be a win for the commission and the players.  They just didn't have the guts to go high enough or to cheap to hire a mathematician. 

                    I remember all the people here acting like the new 1 in 256 million odds was going to create years of wait for a winner LOL.  All that happened was going from 12 winners a year down to about 8.

                    Now to get this the commission is going to have to raise the odds over 500 million to 1.  2 hoppers with 44 balls each drawing the usual 5 & 1 would do it.  It would give odds of approximately 550 million to 1 is what one online lotto calculator tallied but you get the point.  Problem solved. 

                    Don't change the $1 play.  This is a WalMart society after all Big Grin.   

                    I don't suggest changing PowerBall one bit for their followers.  They want the starting 40 million jackpot won every draw split 4000 ways to spread it around a little bit!ROFL

                    "They promised higher jackpots more often. "

                    I don't recall anyone promising "higher jackpots more often"; do you have a quote from a MUSL or a state lottery official?

                    Because the odds against were increased from 175 million to 1 to 258 million to 1, the obvious should be jackpots will be hit less often than before. Jackpots should be higher because of the higher odds, but just like before when the jackpot approaches $500 million, a jackpot frenzy begins making it almost "must win"

                    "I spend even less only $1 each MegaMillions draw."

                    If everyone played your way, buying only one ticket every drawing, it's possible to build a jackpot high enough to pay off the national debt.

                      Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

                      United States
                      Member #142499
                      May 13, 2013
                      1182 Posts
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                      Posted: June 18, 2014, 3:25 pm - IP Logged

                      The new odds for Mega Millions have been a failure.  They promised higher jackpots more often. 

                      I actually thought we'd see $500M JPs more often. I don't even think we've had one since the matrix changes. Have we?

                      There was a time I never skipped MM draws but now I do and I don't ever feel guilty. My budget is down to $4 a week for MM Evil

                      I Agree! I too thought that we'd see winning jackpots in the $500 million range more often. And that we'd see a jackpot on or around the billion dollar mark about once a year. So far, I'm not seeing any significant difference between the jackpots won before the matrix changes and those won after. And no new records have been set. Powerball still holds the record for the largest single jackpot payout using a matrix with better odds than MM. Who would have thought it?

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                        NEW YORK
                        United States
                        Member #90535
                        April 29, 2010
                        11978 Posts
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                        Posted: June 18, 2014, 4:44 pm - IP Logged

                        The new odds for Mega Millions have been a failure.  They promised higher jackpots more often.  We can't even get to our first billion!

                        The Mega Millions commission didn't go high enough on the odds.  It takes well over 20 draws to get the jackpot in the 1 - 2 billion range.  Considering 104 draws a year you need a winner every 26 draws(3 months).  With 4 winners a year take home would be 4 - 8 billion a year.  4 different winning tickets could be worth up to 600 million EACH after all taxes are paid.   It would be a win for the commission and the players.  They just didn't have the guts to go high enough or to cheap to hire a mathematician. 

                        I remember all the people here acting like the new 1 in 256 million odds was going to create years of wait for a winner LOL.  All that happened was going from 12 winners a year down to about 8.

                        Now to get this the commission is going to have to raise the odds over 500 million to 1.  2 hoppers with 44 balls each drawing the usual 5 & 1 would do it.  It would give odds of approximately 550 million to 1 is what one online lotto calculator tallied but you get the point.  Problem solved. 

                        Don't change the $1 play.  This is a WalMart society after all Big Grin.   

                        I don't suggest changing PowerBall one bit for their followers.  They want the starting 40 million jackpot won every draw split 4000 ways to spread it around a little bit!ROFL

                        You will be the only one playing.

                          Avatar
                          Krypton
                          United States
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                          March 11, 2013
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                          Posted: June 18, 2014, 10:31 pm - IP Logged

                          Hmm, I would be happy winning $15 million several times

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                            NEW YORK
                            United States
                            Member #90535
                            April 29, 2010
                            11978 Posts
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                            Posted: June 19, 2014, 9:36 am - IP Logged

                            Hmm, I would be happy winning $15 million several times

                            Powerball lottery jackpot is $60 Million. Oh, I forgot MM jackpot is $20 Million. Good luck.

                              RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
                              NY
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                              January 21, 2012
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                              Posted: June 19, 2014, 11:50 am - IP Logged

                              Looks like the matrix is backfiring. When they add numbers it allows people to play those numbers that they could never play before. There's some numbers id like to play so when they go to 100 it won't bother me.