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Will we ever see a double win?

Topic closed. 46 replies. Last post 2 years ago by DamGod.

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Kentucky
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Posted: August 5, 2014, 9:40 pm - IP Logged

Well I know the odds of winning one jackpot but not two back to back. Anything can happen, that's why I think it will happen at some point if the lotto is played long enough.

If we all had enough time, we would all win at least one of the jackpots and possibly several. Each games has only 104 drawings a year and even with 208 combined drawings, plan on playing 81,730 years just to have a 10% chance. What are the odds against the same five numbers and the same bonus number drawn back to back?


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    Posted: August 5, 2014, 9:49 pm - IP Logged

    You are just as much a sucker for playing as I am. Frankly, I am sure you are a douche in real life.

    But I don't play, so I'm not a sucker. The only thing I play is the p-3 and maybe once a month I'll play a Florida Fantasy Five for skits and giggles.

    Actually I'm really a nice guy in real life. What other life are you talking about? This is the only real life I'm aware of.


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      Posted: August 6, 2014, 4:31 am - IP Logged

      But I don't play, so I'm not a sucker. The only thing I play is the p-3 and maybe once a month I'll play a Florida Fantasy Five for skits and giggles.

      Actually I'm really a nice guy in real life. What other life are you talking about? This is the only real life I'm aware of.


      This isn't for MM or PB, but if you're curious to see what happened when a Hypothetical player hoping for double wins played "Yesterday's Winner" every day straight in a Pick-3 game for 33 years,
      Click Here...


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        Posted: August 6, 2014, 12:23 pm - IP Logged


        This isn't for MM or PB, but if you're curious to see what happened when a Hypothetical player hoping for double wins played "Yesterday's Winner" every day straight in a Pick-3 game for 33 years,
        Click Here...

        I'd have to say that would be one of the worst strategies in p-3.


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          Posted: August 6, 2014, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

          I'd have to say that would be one of the worst strategies in p-3.

          Wow, talk about strange occurrences lately. I guess I spoke too soon. lol

          Florida,

           

          Wed, Aug 6, 20140-2-54-1-5-4
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            Kentucky
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            Posted: August 6, 2014, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

            Assuming one ticket each, the odds are about 1 in 45.4 quadrillion. So although possible, it is extremely unlikely to happen. Fun to think about it though

            Those are the same odds I came up with, but then I realized there are several million MM results impossible for PB to match. MM has 12,253,004 five number outcomes PB can't match and including the bonus numbers, there are "only" 75,095,790 combos that are in both games.  Of the last PB 100 drawing, a bonus number over 15 was drawn 61 times so there was a 1 in 45.4 quadrillion chance in only about 40% of the drawings.

            If they keep on drawing both games, eventually it will happen, but I wouldn't bet on when it will happen.

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              Posted: August 6, 2014, 5:27 pm - IP Logged

              Those are the same odds I came up with, but then I realized there are several million MM results impossible for PB to match. MM has 12,253,004 five number outcomes PB can't match and including the bonus numbers, there are "only" 75,095,790 combos that are in both games.  Of the last PB 100 drawing, a bonus number over 15 was drawn 61 times so there was a 1 in 45.4 quadrillion chance in only about 40% of the drawings.

              If they keep on drawing both games, eventually it will happen, but I wouldn't bet on when it will happen.

              That's irrelevant.....both games are independent events; thus, under the Multiplicative Rule, you simply multiple the odds of winning for each game by the other.

              Assuming one ticket in each game, the odds of winning the jackpot on both are 1 in 45,363,763,000,000,000.

              See http://www.mathwords.com/m/multiplication_rule.htm.

              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

              2017: 0% (0 tickets)
              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1


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                Posted: August 7, 2014, 1:58 am - IP Logged

                I'd have to say that would be one of the worst strategies in p-3.

                I had hoped you would have noticed that that "strategy" resulted in 14 straight hits over the 33 years, approximately what you would have expected by buying quick picks.  Read further into the thread and note what happened when the winning draw from (2) days ago was consistently bet on.  It might just occur to you that it doesn't really matter what "strategy" or "system" you use - your winnings will average out to be approximately the same no matter what you do.  Also read the opening post of the thread linked to above.


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                  Posted: August 7, 2014, 9:59 am - IP Logged

                  I had hoped you would have noticed that that "strategy" resulted in 14 straight hits over the 33 years, approximately what you would have expected by buying quick picks.  Read further into the thread and note what happened when the winning draw from (2) days ago was consistently bet on.  It might just occur to you that it doesn't really matter what "strategy" or "system" you use - your winnings will average out to be approximately the same no matter what you do.  Also read the opening post of the thread linked to above.

                  You know Jimmy, you and I have always agreed on the near impossibility of winning a major JP in our lifetimes, but I disagree when you say no strategy will prevail when using a system in the p-3. 

                  Using a random number generator is not the same as picking personal numbers based on a whole host of variables that can be taken advantage of when making selections.

                  Peter St. Pierre has been doing it for over five years now making an average of 70 grand a year playing the p-3 and p-4 in the N.H. lottery. I'm pretty sure you'd agree he isn't using a random number generator.

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                    Posted: August 7, 2014, 11:23 am - IP Logged

                    You know Jimmy, you and I have always agreed on the near impossibility of winning a major JP in our lifetimes, but I disagree when you say no strategy will prevail when using a system in the p-3. 

                    Using a random number generator is not the same as picking personal numbers based on a whole host of variables that can be taken advantage of when making selections.

                    Peter St. Pierre has been doing it for over five years now making an average of 70 grand a year playing the p-3 and p-4 in the N.H. lottery. I'm pretty sure you'd agree he isn't using a random number generator.

                    "You know Jimmy, you and I have always agreed on the near impossibility of winning a major JP in our lifetimes, but I disagree when you say no strategy will prevail when using a system in the p-3." 

                    When it comes to agreeing on the near impossibility of winning a major JP in our lifetimes it's hard for anyone to disagree because the odds of winning says the same thing.  As far as I know, no one who claims to have won their first JP with a strategy or system such as Brad Duke has ever won a second one.  Eventually they have to blame luck more than anything else for their win.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

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                      Posted: August 7, 2014, 3:07 pm - IP Logged

                      That's irrelevant.....both games are independent events; thus, under the Multiplicative Rule, you simply multiple the odds of winning for each game by the other.

                      Assuming one ticket in each game, the odds of winning the jackpot on both are 1 in 45,363,763,000,000,000.

                      See http://www.mathwords.com/m/multiplication_rule.htm.

                      You're correct and I should be more clear in that I was talking about the same results repeating. Maybe someone has the statistic of how many times PB and MM had jackpot winners in consecutive drawings.


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                        Posted: August 7, 2014, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

                        That's irrelevant.....both games are independent events; thus, under the Multiplicative Rule, you simply multiple the odds of winning for each game by the other.

                        Assuming one ticket in each game, the odds of winning the jackpot on both are 1 in 45,363,763,000,000,000.

                        See http://www.mathwords.com/m/multiplication_rule.htm.

                        I agree.  When you ask about the probability of winning two games, back to back, BEFORE either are drawn, the odds get extremely high.  However, just be sure to remember that this differs from the case where someone asks, as an afterthought, AFTER they have won yesterdays jackpot, "What is the probability of winning today's jackpot?"  The formula is the same, P(winning yesterday's jackpot) Multiplied By P(winning today's jackpot).    The difference here is that the probability of winning yesterday's jackpot is 1.0, because it has already happened.

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                          Happyland
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                          Posted: August 7, 2014, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

                          I agree.  When you ask about the probability of winning two games, back to back, BEFORE either are drawn, the odds get extremely high.  However, just be sure to remember that this differs from the case where someone asks, as an afterthought, AFTER they have won yesterdays jackpot, "What is the probability of winning today's jackpot?"  The formula is the same, P(winning yesterday's jackpot) Multiplied By P(winning today's jackpot).    The difference here is that the probability of winning yesterday's jackpot is 1.0, because it has already happened.

                          Help me out here and explain the difference.

                          Even if the probability of winning yesterday's jackpot is 1.0, the probability that you win today's jackpot too is conditional on the fact that you won yesterday's jackpot. It doesn't matter that you win "after;" the probability is the same as if you win "at the same time."

                          Example, if MM and PB draws at the exact same time, there is no difference in probability compared to if they draw 5 minutes between one another or a day after one another because each event is completely independent. We're talking about consecutive/simultaneous hits so order and duration doesn't matter.

                          Or are you just pointing out a technicality that after an event has happened, its individual probability is 1?

                          If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                          If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                          2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                          P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1


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                            Posted: August 7, 2014, 8:01 pm - IP Logged

                            Help me out here and explain the difference.

                            Even if the probability of winning yesterday's jackpot is 1.0, the probability that you win today's jackpot too is conditional on the fact that you won yesterday's jackpot. It doesn't matter that you win "after;" the probability is the same as if you win "at the same time."

                            Example, if MM and PB draws at the exact same time, there is no difference in probability compared to if they draw 5 minutes between one another or a day after one another because each event is completely independent. We're talking about consecutive/simultaneous hits so order and duration doesn't matter.

                            Or are you just pointing out a technicality that after an event has happened, its individual probability is 1?

                            I'm surprised you don't see my point.  Read your reply again.  The problem here is semantic.  Haven't you noticed how often people tend to multiply the probabilities of two independent events together and gasping at the large number, when the 2nd event was not predicted in advance?  I've seen retrospective oohs and aahs here over people who had multiple big hits spread over years.  It's easier to see flipping a coin.  If your question is what is the probability of flipping a fair coin heads two times in a row, starting now, the answer is (1/2)*(1/2) or 1/4.  But if you ask what the probability of flipping a coin heads is for the next flip only, no matter what occurred previously, the answer is 1/2.

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                              Happyland
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                              Posted: August 7, 2014, 8:28 pm - IP Logged

                              I'm surprised you don't see my point.  Read your reply again.  The problem here is semantic.  Haven't you noticed how often people tend to multiply the probabilities of two independent events together and gasping at the large number, when the 2nd event was not predicted in advance?  I've seen retrospective oohs and aahs here over people who had multiple big hits spread over years.  It's easier to see flipping a coin.  If your question is what is the probability of flipping a fair coin heads two times in a row, starting now, the answer is (1/2)*(1/2) or 1/4.  But if you ask what the probability of flipping a coin heads is for the next flip only, no matter what occurred previously, the answer is 1/2.

                              Okay I think I get what you're saying.

                              If someone buys a PB ticket, the odds of them hitting the jackpot are 1 in 175,223,510 regardless whether they also bought a MM ticket and won/lost. Yet the odds of hitting PB given that you also hit MM if you only buy 1 ticket each (as you say, starting now) would be 1 in 45.4 quadrillion. It's almost paradoxical.

                              I've seen retrospective oohs and aahs here over people who had multiple big hits spread over years.

                              Similar to how the experts quote Ginther's odds of hitting 4 jackpots at 1 in 18 septillion, even though the odds for most of her wins were only one in a million+ each, and we know for a fact she didn't just buy 1 ticket in each game...she purchased thousands. If you factor in the number of trials that take place between wins, the odds are not so extreme after all.

                              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                              2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1