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# Conditional Probability System Opportuities

Topic closed. 67 replies. Last post 3 years ago by jimjwright.

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Pennsylvania
United States
Member #2218
September 1, 2003
5540 Posts
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 Posted: August 9, 2014, 6:46 pm - IP Logged

Excel Program - All States

Calculation of Positions 1, 2, and 3 - Skips for each digit in each position

Conditional Formatting of any State where 2 or more digits in all 3 Positions are out 10 days or more

Plus a few other goodies.

Instructions:

Create a new folder and name it whatever you like

Download the following 2 Excel files and place them in the new folder created above

https://app.box.com/s/fwi8vdox8w0v8iuqdagx

https://app.box.com/s/62ikkbv5zbelcfu7ywyg

Open the Excel file P3StateDraws.xlsm 1st.  A window will open asking you to adjust the date.  Just close this window.  You don't need to do anything with this Excel file except keep it open.  I update this Excel file every morning.  There is a post in the systems thread with the download link to a folder containing this particular Excel file.  This Excel file contains all the draw histories to every state including the Canadian draws.

Click File > Open and browse to the folder where you downloaded the 2 Excel files above and open the 2nd Excel file Doubles.xlsm

Click the tab labeled Digits.  Any state highlighted in Red indicate that there are 3 digits with a skip greater than or equal to 10 in either the Morning, Midday, Evening, or Combined draws.  Of course not all states have a Morning, Midday, and Combined draw.  If you scroll to the right you can cross reference the state and the skips for each digit (all positions)

There are 2 Toolbars in the tab labeled Dashboard1.  Each day you will need to click both Toolbars wich will update the Doubles and Digits (skips) programs.

Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
Member #828
November 2, 2002
10491 Posts
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 Posted: August 9, 2014, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

Wow buddy.... what acrescendo ending!  What a right tool for the right job....

Starting to look a lot like Christmas Steve. LOL

No excuses now for ........anyone.  Call it the ........"The Digits Drone"

knock ...knock..
Steve's Digit Drone

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.

Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.

Odds never change .....but probability does.

Win d

gay,ga
United States
Member #68810
December 30, 2008
6067 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 9, 2014, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

Excel Program - All States

Calculation of Positions 1, 2, and 3 - Skips for each digit in each position

Conditional Formatting of any State where 2 or more digits in all 3 Positions are out 10 days or more

Plus a few other goodies.

Instructions:

Create a new folder and name it whatever you like

Download the following 2 Excel files and place them in the new folder created above

https://app.box.com/s/fwi8vdox8w0v8iuqdagx

https://app.box.com/s/62ikkbv5zbelcfu7ywyg

Open the Excel file P3StateDraws.xlsm 1st.  A window will open asking you to adjust the date.  Just close this window.  You don't need to do anything with this Excel file except keep it open.  I update this Excel file every morning.  There is a post in the systems thread with the download link to a folder containing this particular Excel file.  This Excel file contains all the draw histories to every state including the Canadian draws.

Click File > Open and browse to the folder where you downloaded the 2 Excel files above and open the 2nd Excel file Doubles.xlsm

Click the tab labeled Digits.  Any state highlighted in Red indicate that there are 3 digits with a skip greater than or equal to 10 in either the Morning, Midday, Evening, or Combined draws.  Of course not all states have a Morning, Midday, and Combined draw.  If you scroll to the right you can cross reference the state and the skips for each digit (all positions)

There are 2 Toolbars in the tab labeled Dashboard1.  Each day you will need to click both Toolbars wich will update the Doubles and Digits (skips) programs.

Did you hit tonight?

Simi Valley, CA
United States
Member #156940
July 4, 2014
708 Posts
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 Posted: August 9, 2014, 11:42 pm - IP Logged

I'm sorry, I'm just... not totally lost, but mostly.

So are you talking a single digit that's out X days in a row? Right now, in the California D3, the 8 digit has been out for 11 draws now. The 5 digit was out for 12 (overlapping) draws in a row... so the chance of an 8 or 5 coming up, was indeed high.  A 555 hit tonight.  How would anyone have drawn that specific triple, from this exercise?  Also, finally landing on the right digit coming up - say, a box with 8 - still leaves 36 choices to sift through... right?...

Obviously, the ignorance lies 100% entirely with me, new to most of this; so I'm hoping you might clarify further, WinD.

Worse than 50/50 odds, is waiting (say) for an opportunity for one box single set (e.g., 123) to flip into a box set with no identical digits (e.g., 456).  Any three digits account for 71% of the available pool.  Let's say, for the sake of argument, 2/3s.  So, if you were to, say, watch one box after another repeat a single (or more) digit (e.g., 102—145—425569); once the amount of such repeats exceeded (somewhere I read the actual percentage of any given number coming up is closer to 150% rather than what we think of as 100%, for complex math reasons I don't know or understand; but, for sake of argument, I'll just go with 150%) (I repeat) once the amount of such repeats exceeded (taking the 2/3s basis, rounding up) 11+ draws... one is advised to start playing solely non-connecting digits, because the likelihood is now fast exceeding basic coin-flip probability.

However, you still have 35 choices left (more if you include doubles!)... and isn't that still too many?...  Clearly I'm just befuddled, and need some help here.

Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
Member #828
November 2, 2002
10491 Posts
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 Posted: August 10, 2014, 3:45 am - IP Logged

I'm sorry, I'm just... not totally lost, but mostly.

So are you talking a single digit that's out X days in a row? Right now, in the California D3, the 8 digit has been out for 11 draws now. The 5 digit was out for 12 (overlapping) draws in a row... so the chance of an 8 or 5 coming up, was indeed high.  A 555 hit tonight.  How would anyone have drawn that specific triple, from this exercise?  Also, finally landing on the right digit coming up - say, a box with 8 - still leaves 36 choices to sift through... right?...

Obviously, the ignorance lies 100% entirely with me, new to most of this; so I'm hoping you might clarify further, WinD.

Worse than 50/50 odds, is waiting (say) for an opportunity for one box single set (e.g., 123) to flip into a box set with no identical digits (e.g., 456).  Any three digits account for 71% of the available pool.  Let's say, for the sake of argument, 2/3s.  So, if you were to, say, watch one box after another repeat a single (or more) digit (e.g., 102—145—425569); once the amount of such repeats exceeded (somewhere I read the actual percentage of any given number coming up is closer to 150% rather than what we think of as 100%, for complex math reasons I don't know or understand; but, for sake of argument, I'll just go with 150%) (I repeat) once the amount of such repeats exceeded (taking the 2/3s basis, rounding up) 11+ draws... one is advised to start playing solely non-connecting digits, because the likelihood is now fast exceeding basic coin-flip probability.

However, you still have 35 choices left (more if you include doubles!)... and isn't that still too many?...  Clearly I'm just befuddled, and need some help here.

Hi PeerGynt !  So, got the big trip 555 tonight did ya?  You sure didn't need much help or extra filters to hit that one.

That particular Trip ....was low hanging fruit wasn't it?

I realize that doesn't mean the same thing in California as it does on the East Coast. LOL  All those wine vineyards and everything.

Still, it was in almost everyone of the regular filters as a top pick. 555

=========

Actually, our skips for those digits up there don't match up. Even combined ...and or just evening. I had digit 5 out but only 9 draws for Eve...and digit 4 and 8 tied for second position. For combined the digit was out most again.....and skipping 11 draws along with digit 8 but only out...9 draws.

You said above " "

How would anyone have drawn that specific triple, from this exercise?

Also, finally landing on the right digit coming up - say, a box with 8 - still leaves 36 choices to sift through... right?.

No ONE filter that I know of ...can do that by itself. No way that could work.... from 1000 to 1 pick 555....using only ONE filter can't happen.  Wish it could.

Not this filter or any other. But... we need to start somewhere.....and the more DC we can start with the better. The one above is one of the best.

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.

Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.

Odds never change .....but probability does.

Win d

Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
Member #828
November 2, 2002
10491 Posts
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 Posted: August 10, 2014, 4:14 am - IP Logged

Off the subject of this generic 50/50 filter up there but......... wish I had played at that 555 in Ca. Saturday night.

1. the top 4 due short sums were ODD......555

2. the top due long sum combined ? ......guess what?   L.Sum 15 skipping 70 draws / normally 13.39

3. Top box pair...?   You got .....55 out 131 draws.

4. Top straight pair...... you got it...... 55 out 288

5. The long out 6 digit String was due and skipping......and even ended tonight with 555.

6. The top due single digit ?  Yes, digit 5 ..... !

7. The top due Split pair....?  77 and 55

8. Due ALL ODD doubles and singles ..trips..number..... out 30 draws. 555

etc etc etc....

I'm burned out ......but I could go on with many more strict filters all pointing .....that way.

Even with my luck..... just don't see how I could have avoided accidentally stumbling over it. Didn't even use the 50'50 filter above.

Woulda'...Coulda'....Shoulda'  just didn't see it to play.

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.

Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.

Odds never change .....but probability does.

Win d

Simi Valley, CA
United States
Member #156940
July 4, 2014
708 Posts
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 Posted: August 10, 2014, 11:32 am - IP Logged

Ah. Thanks WinD. That clarifies much for me.

If I had been filtering using your categories… gosh, maybe I would have focused upon that 555! All those aspects you list, indeed make it sound like it should have been on short lists. Must get savvier with my systems (and learn how to navigate those complex Excel files: are there tutorials anywhere, winsumlosesum?).

Now, I've noticed, that roughly slightly less than 50% of the time, when it comes to singles, the game draws all its digits contained within the last five (combined) draws; roughly slightly less than 50%, it draws two digits from the last five; and a minority of the time, it draws only one digit from the last five.

When it comes to Doubles, it always (or, so close as to be definitional as "always") either pulls both digits from the last five, or one from the last five… but never both from six plays or more out. So, if 1, 2, and 3 were all out for 6+ plays, and a double were due, you could safely discard all doubles encompassing 123 (112, 223, etc.)

These are examples of what is, what must be; you could call them, rules of the game. Nothing has to be that way, in a perfectly random universe—but it is that way, as analysis reveals. So, it must be part of the algorithmic formula (as in the California D3). Mark one off on the "Discovered Secret Rules" list.

Then there's the "due" aspects: a 5 is due, a double is due, a certain root sum is due, etc.

The problem with "dues," is that they're the only* visible aspect to studying players… and to the game itself. If it's so designed (the secret algorithm again?) to create layers of "dues," and lure players away chasing them… it can do some nice damage. But the problem with avoiding all "dues," is that the entire playing field becomes level—there, all a strategist can do, is blindly choose; like rolling one die for the first time. So are layers of "dues" like rolling that single die, too—sifting through six "dues" for the right one, for example, is no different than blindly rolling a six-sided die?

My approach has been how to best meld what is, i.e., what must be, with what is due. The perfect intersection of those two… should be the sweet spot.

*A "trend" (negative or positive) could be argued as not being a due aspect, that a player can nevertheless utilize strategically. But to me, a trend is just a due by another name; since any manifesting trend, is the long-term "due" playing out in real time (i.e., over successive plays—no such thing as a single hit "trend"), as opposed to a one-pop "due."

Simi Valley, CA
United States
Member #156940
July 4, 2014
708 Posts
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 Posted: August 10, 2014, 1:23 pm - IP Logged

Ah. Thanks WinD. That clarifies much for me.

If I had been filtering using your categories… gosh, maybe I would have focused upon that 555! All those aspects you list, indeed make it sound like it should have been on short lists. Must get savvier with my systems (and learn how to navigate those complex Excel files: are there tutorials anywhere, winsumlosesum?).

Now, I've noticed, that roughly slightly less than 50% of the time, when it comes to singles, the game draws all its digits contained within the last five (combined) draws; roughly slightly less than 50%, it draws two digits from the last five; and a minority of the time, it draws only one digit from the last five.

When it comes to Doubles, it always (or, so close as to be definitional as "always") either pulls both digits from the last five, or one from the last five… but never both from six plays or more out. So, if 1, 2, and 3 were all out for 6+ plays, and a double were due, you could safely discard all doubles encompassing 123 (112, 223, etc.)

These are examples of what is, what must be; you could call them, rules of the game. Nothing has to be that way, in a perfectly random universe—but it is that way, as analysis reveals. So, it must be part of the algorithmic formula (as in the California D3). Mark one off on the "Discovered Secret Rules" list.

Then there's the "due" aspects: a 5 is due, a double is due, a certain root sum is due, etc.

The problem with "dues," is that they're the only* visible aspect to studying players… and to the game itself. If it's so designed (the secret algorithm again?) to create layers of "dues," and lure players away chasing them… it can do some nice damage. But the problem with avoiding all "dues," is that the entire playing field becomes level—there, all a strategist can do, is blindly choose; like rolling one die for the first time. So are layers of "dues" like rolling that single die, too—sifting through six "dues" for the right one, for example, is no different than blindly rolling a six-sided die?

My approach has been how to best meld what is, i.e., what must be, with what is due. The perfect intersection of those two… should be the sweet spot.

*A "trend" (negative or positive) could be argued as not being a due aspect, that a player can nevertheless utilize strategically. But to me, a trend is just a due by another name; since any manifesting trend, is the long-term "due" playing out in real time (i.e., over successive plays—no such thing as a single hit "trend"), as opposed to a one-pop "due."

Whoops - messed up there.  Didn't mean to say "last five (combined) draws," I meant breaking it up into Midday/Evening, for both singles/doubles: the last 5 Evening or Midday draws, 6+ Evening or Midday draws, etc.  Sorry 'bout that.

United States
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May 26, 2014
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 Posted: August 10, 2014, 1:59 pm - IP Logged

Whoops - messed up there.  Didn't mean to say "last five (combined) draws," I meant breaking it up into Midday/Evening, for both singles/doubles: the last 5 Evening or Midday draws, 6+ Evening or Midday draws, etc.  Sorry 'bout that.

Keeping on the subject of using those 2 very due digits as a great 50/50 filter I must say.Thanks for another great way to look at this hardscrabble game.We need all the filters we can get at one time or the other. Some sleep and others get fired up.

This is another very helpful way to break down these huge numbers.Clean and simple but a very powerful filter.

We needed this so many times and now we have it.

Simi Valley, CA
United States
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July 4, 2014
708 Posts
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 Posted: August 10, 2014, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

Whoops - messed up there.  Didn't mean to say "last five (combined) draws," I meant breaking it up into Midday/Evening, for both singles/doubles: the last 5 Evening or Midday draws, 6+ Evening or Midday draws, etc.  Sorry 'bout that.

Omg, please don't kill me, but I even screwed up that correction

When it comes to doubles, it never takes both digits from same day/time (i.e., Midday/Evening) plays six out or greater (count down five Midday plays, for example; six on, any combined "out" digits [if there even are any] won't both appear in a double).

But (my own analysis reveals; yours may vary), when it comes to SINGLE combinations, it's about (not being exact here, but) 45%/45%/10% chance each pulling three/two/one (respectively) of its digits from the last five COMBINED plays.

Texas
United States
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December 31, 2013
824 Posts
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 Posted: August 11, 2014, 6:53 am - IP Logged

Hi Peer Gynt,

My best advice to you is to study up on Win D's 50-50 splits.  They are a great way to gather clues as to what is coming up in the game.

I use high/low, even/odd, in/out, hot/cold and Win D's A/B "Alpha-bet" (love that name).  I track the skips for each of the four possibilities for each to see what is due -- eg. HHL, LLH, HHH, LLL.  Its probably the most informative page in my Excel (sorry!) spreadsheet.

"There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

~Robert A. Heinlein

ORLANDO, FLORIDA
United States
Member #4924
June 3, 2004
6095 Posts
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 Posted: August 11, 2014, 8:59 am - IP Logged

Hi Peer Gynt,

My best advice to you is to study up on Win D's 50-50 splits.  They are a great way to gather clues as to what is coming up in the game.

I use high/low, even/odd, in/out, hot/cold and Win D's A/B "Alpha-bet" (love that name).  I track the skips for each of the four possibilities for each to see what is due -- eg. HHL, LLH, HHH, LLL.  Its probably the most informative page in my Excel (sorry!) spreadsheet.

It did not take long for you to learn who to follow, WTG!! Also pay attention to Stack47's posts, very good stats.

Simi Valley, CA
United States
Member #156940
July 4, 2014
708 Posts
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 Posted: August 11, 2014, 10:30 am - IP Logged

Hi Peer Gynt,

My best advice to you is to study up on Win D's 50-50 splits.  They are a great way to gather clues as to what is coming up in the game.

I use high/low, even/odd, in/out, hot/cold and Win D's A/B "Alpha-bet" (love that name).  I track the skips for each of the four possibilities for each to see what is due -- eg. HHL, LLH, HHH, LLL.  Its probably the most informative page in my Excel (sorry!) spreadsheet.

Thanks, Tialuvslotto, I definitely will!  I need all the help I can get.

And from my short time here on LP, I've already been blown away by WinD; both for his intricate knowledge of the game, and his genuine, outgoing friendliness.  There's actually a lot of those here on LP!

Hey, can you quick link me to those Excel sheets?  No worries, otherwise I'll just hunt and peck for them....

ORLANDO, FLORIDA
United States
Member #4924
June 3, 2004
6095 Posts
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 Posted: August 11, 2014, 2:53 pm - IP Logged

Chaz, this is right up your alley

013, 049, 058, 067, 139, 148, 157, 238, 247, 256, 346, 589, 679

these combos are 8.5 times overdue straights, Fl Eve. I'm on my way to the store, will run these 2x each.

Chaz ,

Before today's draw, the 1 and 7 were out a total of 8 draws. The draw was 361, unfortunately, I played 351! ouch!! Looking for an Odd combo.  I have been doing that a lot lately. I have the above combos on tap for Eve draw.

Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
Member #828
November 2, 2002
10491 Posts
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 Posted: August 13, 2014, 7:38 pm - IP Logged

Prime Examples of  2 long out skipping digits skipping at the same time.

Kansas Eve...... digit 0....out 15       digit 5 out 14 !!     20% of the 1000 chart missing for 2 weeks.   Rare

NC Eve...... digit 8 14         digit 2 out .....10

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.

Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.

Odds never change .....but probability does.

Win d

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