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# Conditional Probability System Opportuities

Topic closed. 67 replies. Last post 2 years ago by jimjwright.

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New Haven, CT - Queens, NY
United States
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October 13, 2010
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 Posted: October 17, 2014, 9:47 am - IP Logged

Right on cue Wisconsin digit 6 hit today after skipping 19 draws or 99.9% degree of certainty.

D.C Midday digit 5 has now achieved 19 skips, so be on the watch.

New Mexico Midday digit 4 has skipped 30 draws and counting.  I would look for pair 34 or 45 to hit.

Probability. Gotta love it!!

The goal is to approach the Pick 3 & Pick 4 game sensibly and systematically!!

I'm not like the guy who predicted the end of the world and nothing happened.

ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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June 3, 2004
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 Posted: October 17, 2014, 10:13 am - IP Logged

Actually I calculated it wrong using 30% probability 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 and didn't account for overlaps.  It should be 27.1% probability of any digit hitting in the next draw.

So a useful table of probabilities for Pick3 game with 99.9 degree of certainty would be:

 Probability of Event Occurring Degree of Certainty # of Events 10.0% 99.9% 66 27.1% 99.9% 21 50.0% 99.9% 10

So how do you use this table?  You track events that have that probability of hitting and how long it has skipped.

Once a game approaches these number of skips then start paying attention.

10% is a useful probability when tracking skips for a digit by position.

Don't be mislead games will skip longer than these calculated events but a lot of times they hit as they approach these extreme limits.

Jimmy

Thank you.

Park City, UT
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January 18, 2009
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 Posted: October 18, 2014, 1:12 pm - IP Logged

Other things of note Ohio Midday in the last 10 draws has perfectly cycled thru all 10 shortsums 7 6 0 4 8 9 1 3 5 2.

California Mostly/All low missing for 6 draws.

Indiana Mostly/All odd missing for 6 draws.

Michigan Mostly/All inner missing for 6 draws.

D.C. Mostly/All odd missing for 8 draws.

California on the next draw had 329 or mostly low.

Indiana Mostly/All odd missing for 8 draws.  What is helping contribute is 4 doubles where the double digit was even. 00 is the missing even double in this streak.

Michigan Mostly/All inner hit last night with 370

D.C. Mostly/All odd hit last night with 536

So 3 of the 4 hit yesterday.

Remember these are 50/50 filters that have 99.9% degree of certainty of hitting in 10 draws.

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savannah, ga
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October 7, 2014
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 Posted: October 18, 2014, 4:07 pm - IP Logged

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 Posted: October 19, 2014, 12:43 am - IP Logged

Ah. Thanks WinD. That clarifies much for me.

If I had been filtering using your categories… gosh, maybe I would have focused upon that 555! All those aspects you list, indeed make it sound like it should have been on short lists. Must get savvier with my systems (and learn how to navigate those complex Excel files: are there tutorials anywhere, winsumlosesum?).

Now, I've noticed, that roughly slightly less than 50% of the time, when it comes to singles, the game draws all its digits contained within the last five (combined) draws; roughly slightly less than 50%, it draws two digits from the last five; and a minority of the time, it draws only one digit from the last five.

When it comes to Doubles, it always (or, so close as to be definitional as "always") either pulls both digits from the last five, or one from the last five… but never both from six plays or more out. So, if 1, 2, and 3 were all out for 6+ plays, and a double were due, you could safely discard all doubles encompassing 123 (112, 223, etc.)

These are examples of what is, what must be; you could call them, rules of the game. Nothing has to be that way, in a perfectly random universe—but it is that way, as analysis reveals. So, it must be part of the algorithmic formula (as in the California D3). Mark one off on the "Discovered Secret Rules" list.

Then there's the "due" aspects: a 5 is due, a double is due, a certain root sum is due, etc.

The problem with "dues," is that they're the only* visible aspect to studying players… and to the game itself. If it's so designed (the secret algorithm again?) to create layers of "dues," and lure players away chasing them… it can do some nice damage. But the problem with avoiding all "dues," is that the entire playing field becomes level—there, all a strategist can do, is blindly choose; like rolling one die for the first time. So are layers of "dues" like rolling that single die, too—sifting through six "dues" for the right one, for example, is no different than blindly rolling a six-sided die?

My approach has been how to best meld what is, i.e., what must be, with what is due. The perfect intersection of those two… should be the sweet spot.

*A "trend" (negative or positive) could be argued as not being a due aspect, that a player can nevertheless utilize strategically. But to me, a trend is just a due by another name; since any manifesting trend, is the long-term "due" playing out in real time (i.e., over successive plays—no such thing as a single hit "trend"), as opposed to a one-pop "due."

Well, the game plays by it's own rules and it's up to anyone to figure them out. But, any rules for the game should be ,in some way, related to Probability. After all, Probability is what governs the game.

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 Posted: October 19, 2014, 1:00 am - IP Logged

Omg, please don't kill me, but I even screwed up that correction

When it comes to doubles, it never takes both digits from same day/time (i.e., Midday/Evening) plays six out or greater (count down five Midday plays, for example; six on, any combined "out" digits [if there even are any] won't both appear in a double).

But (my own analysis reveals; yours may vary), when it comes to SINGLE combinations, it's about (not being exact here, but) 45%/45%/10% chance each pulling three/two/one (respectively) of its digits from the last five COMBINED plays.

Well, as they say, "never say never". But, then again, the game ,seemingly, never ceases to break all the rules. Most likely, it has happened ,many times, and you just don't know it. Anything, and everything, eventually ends up to happen when it comes down to randomness. This is why tweaking is always a part of the process.

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 Posted: October 19, 2014, 1:30 am - IP Logged

Hi Peer Gynt,

My best advice to you is to study up on Win D's 50-50 splits.  They are a great way to gather clues as to what is coming up in the game.

I use high/low, even/odd, in/out, hot/cold and Win D's A/B "Alpha-bet" (love that name).  I track the skips for each of the four possibilities for each to see what is due -- eg. HHL, LLH, HHH, LLL.  Its probably the most informative page in my Excel (sorry!) spreadsheet.

Very smart!! This is ,basically, how my system works. Now, tracking is one thing and isn't ,in itself, that difficult. But, knowing how to use it to your advantage is a whole other story. So, on the face of it, it seems simple. But, as it turns out, it's much more involved then anyone would have ever suspected.

Park City, UT
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January 18, 2009
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 Posted: October 21, 2014, 4:49 pm - IP Logged
October 22, 2014  -  October 26, 2014
Pick3 GamesFront PairsBack Pairs
Arizona Pick 343 46 49 53 56 59 83 86 8930 33 36 60 63 66 90 93 96
Arkansas Cash 303 05 07 23 25 27 33 35 3730 33 37 50 53 57 70 73 77
California Daily 310 14 19 20 24 29 30 34 3902 03 08 42 43 48 92 93 98
Colorado Pick 313 15 19 23 25 29 33 35 3931 35 36 51 55 56 91 95 96
Connecticut Play 330 31 34 40 41 44 80 81 8400 05 09 10 15 19 40 45 49
Delaware Play 304 08 09 14 18 19 34 38 3944 45 48 84 85 88 94 95 98
Florida Cash 300 02 08 10 12 18 50 52 5803 05 06 23 25 26 83 85 86
Georgia Cash 301 04 09 11 14 19 21 24 2911 14 17 41 44 47 91 94 97
Idaho Pick 344 45 48 54 55 58 84 85 8842 43 49 52 53 59 82 83 89
Illinois Pick 312 15 18 32 35 38 42 45 4824 26 28 54 56 58 84 86 88
Indiana Daily 300 02 06 10 12 16 20 22 2601 04 06 21 24 26 61 64 66
Iowa Pick 320 22 24 50 52 54 60 62 6401 03 06 21 23 26 41 43 46
Kansas Pick 315 16 19 75 76 79 85 86 8952 54 56 62 64 66 92 94 96
Kentucky Pick 301 05 09 21 25 29 81 85 8910 15 19 50 55 59 90 95 99
Louisiana Pick 300 02 03 10 12 13 40 42 4302 03 05 22 23 25 32 33 35
Maryland Pick 301 04 06 21 24 26 91 94 9611 12 19 41 42 49 61 62 69
Michigan Daily 311 15 16 61 65 66 71 75 7610 18 19 50 58 59 60 68 69
Minnesota Daily 313 14 15 43 44 45 73 74 7532 37 38 42 47 48 52 57 58
Missouri Pick 300 03 05 40 43 45 60 63 6504 06 09 34 36 39 54 56 59
Nebraska Pick 301 02 04 11 12 14 21 22 2411 12 19 21 22 29 41 42 49
New Jersey Pick 302 03 06 12 13 16 22 23 2621 23 25 31 33 35 61 63 65
New Mexico Pick 310 12 14 20 22 24 30 32 3401 03 06 21 23 26 41 43 46
New York Numbers00 02 03 10 12 13 60 62 6304 05 06 24 25 26 34 35 36
North Carolina Pick 300 02 05 30 32 35 90 92 9503 06 07 23 26 27 53 56 57
Ohio Pick 342 43 48 52 53 58 72 73 7821 25 29 31 35 39 81 85 89
Oklahoma Pick 313 16 17 23 26 27 43 46 4733 36 39 63 66 69 73 76 79
Pennsylvania Daily 301 03 09 51 53 59 81 83 8910 16 19 30 36 39 90 96 99
South Carolina Pick 314 16 19 44 46 49 94 96 9941 43 48 61 63 68 91 93 98
Tennessee Cash 312 14 17 32 34 37 82 84 8722 26 27 42 46 47 72 76 77
Texas Pick 300 02 06 10 12 16 90 92 9601 06 07 21 26 27 61 66 67
Tri-State Pick 315 17 18 55 57 58 95 97 9852 56 57 72 76 77 82 86 87
Virginia Pick 301 02 03 11 12 13 91 92 9311 13 19 21 23 29 31 33 39
Washington Daily Game02 04 05 12 14 15 72 74 7521 28 29 41 48 49 51 58 59
West Virginia Daily 316 18 19 56 58 59 86 88 8960 65 68 80 85 88 90 95 98
Wisconsin Daily Pick 301 05 07 11 15 17 31 35 3712 16 18 52 56 58 72 76 78
District of Columbia DC-324 28 29 34 38 39 84 88 8940 43 49 80 83 89 90 93 99

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