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Conditional Probability System Opportuities

Topic closed. 67 replies. Last post 2 years ago by jimjwright.

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CTNY's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
New Haven, CT - Queens, NY
United States
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October 13, 2010
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Posted: October 17, 2014, 9:47 am - IP Logged

Right on cue Wisconsin digit 6 hit today after skipping 19 draws or 99.9% degree of certainty.

D.C Midday digit 5 has now achieved 19 skips, so be on the watch.

New Mexico Midday digit 4 has skipped 30 draws and counting.  I would look for pair 34 or 45 to hit.

Probability. Gotta love it!!

The goal is to approach the Pick 3 & Pick 4 game sensibly and systematically!! Wink

 I'm not like the guy who predicted the end of the world and nothing happened.

    CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
    ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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    Posted: October 17, 2014, 10:13 am - IP Logged

    Actually I calculated it wrong using 30% probability 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 and didn't account for overlaps.  It should be 27.1% probability of any digit hitting in the next draw.

    So a useful table of probabilities for Pick3 game with 99.9 degree of certainty would be:

    Probability of Event Occurring    Degree of Certainty    # of Events 
    10.0%99.9%66
    27.1%99.9%21
    50.0%99.9%10

    So how do you use this table?  You track events that have that probability of hitting and how long it has skipped.

    Once a game approaches these number of skips then start paying attention.

    10% is a useful probability when tracking skips for a digit by position.

    Don't be mislead games will skip longer than these calculated events but a lot of times they hit as they approach these extreme limits.

    Jimmy

    Thank you.

      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
      Park City, UT
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      Posted: October 18, 2014, 1:12 pm - IP Logged

      Other things of note Ohio Midday in the last 10 draws has perfectly cycled thru all 10 shortsums 7 6 0 4 8 9 1 3 5 2.

      California Mostly/All low missing for 6 draws.

      Indiana Mostly/All odd missing for 6 draws.

      Michigan Mostly/All inner missing for 6 draws.

      D.C. Mostly/All odd missing for 8 draws.

      California on the next draw had 329 or mostly low.

      Indiana Mostly/All odd missing for 8 draws.  What is helping contribute is 4 doubles where the double digit was even. 00 is the missing even double in this streak.

      Michigan Mostly/All inner hit last night with 370

      D.C. Mostly/All odd hit last night with 536

      So 3 of the 4 hit yesterday.

      Remember these are 50/50 filters that have 99.9% degree of certainty of hitting in 10 draws.

        pooh71's avatar - batman38
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        savannah, ga
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        Posted: October 18, 2014, 4:07 pm - IP Logged

        what about Georgia evening


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          Posted: October 19, 2014, 12:43 am - IP Logged

          Ah. Thanks WinD. That clarifies much for me. Smiley

          If I had been filtering using your categories… gosh, maybe I would have focused upon that 555! All those aspects you list, indeed make it sound like it should have been on short lists. Must get savvier with my systems (and learn how to navigate those complex Excel files: are there tutorials anywhere, winsumlosesum?).

          Now, I've noticed, that roughly slightly less than 50% of the time, when it comes to singles, the game draws all its digits contained within the last five (combined) draws; roughly slightly less than 50%, it draws two digits from the last five; and a minority of the time, it draws only one digit from the last five.

          When it comes to Doubles, it always (or, so close as to be definitional as "always") either pulls both digits from the last five, or one from the last five… but never both from six plays or more out. So, if 1, 2, and 3 were all out for 6+ plays, and a double were due, you could safely discard all doubles encompassing 123 (112, 223, etc.)

          These are examples of what is, what must be; you could call them, rules of the game. Nothing has to be that way, in a perfectly random universe—but it is that way, as analysis reveals. So, it must be part of the algorithmic formula (as in the California D3). Mark one off on the "Discovered Secret Rules" list.

          Then there's the "due" aspects: a 5 is due, a double is due, a certain root sum is due, etc.

          The problem with "dues," is that they're the only* visible aspect to studying players… and to the game itself. If it's so designed (the secret algorithm again?) to create layers of "dues," and lure players away chasing them… it can do some nice damage. But the problem with avoiding all "dues," is that the entire playing field becomes level—there, all a strategist can do, is blindly choose; like rolling one die for the first time. So are layers of "dues" like rolling that single die, too—sifting through six "dues" for the right one, for example, is no different than blindly rolling a six-sided die?

          My approach has been how to best meld what is, i.e., what must be, with what is due. The perfect intersection of those two… should be the sweet spot. Smiley

          *A "trend" (negative or positive) could be argued as not being a due aspect, that a player can nevertheless utilize strategically. But to me, a trend is just a due by another name; since any manifesting trend, is the long-term "due" playing out in real time (i.e., over successive plays—no such thing as a single hit "trend"), as opposed to a one-pop "due."

           Well, the game plays by it's own rules and it's up to anyone to figure them out. But, any rules for the game should be ,in some way, related to Probability. After all, Probability is what governs the game.


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            Posted: October 19, 2014, 1:00 am - IP Logged

            Omg, please don't kill me, but I even screwed up that correctionBlush

            When it comes to doubles, it never takes both digits from same day/time (i.e., Midday/Evening) plays six out or greater (count down five Midday plays, for example; six on, any combined "out" digits [if there even are any] won't both appear in a double).

            But (my own analysis reveals; yours may vary), when it comes to SINGLE combinations, it's about (not being exact here, but) 45%/45%/10% chance each pulling three/two/one (respectively) of its digits from the last five COMBINED plays.

            Mea culpa! Bad, bad PG!  Hit With Stick

             Well, as they say, "never say never". But, then again, the game ,seemingly, never ceases to break all the rules. Most likely, it has happened ,many times, and you just don't know it. Anything, and everything, eventually ends up to happen when it comes down to randomness. This is why tweaking is always a part of the process.


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              Posted: October 19, 2014, 1:30 am - IP Logged

              Hi Peer Gynt,

              My best advice to you is to study up on Win D's 50-50 splits.  They are a great way to gather clues as to what is coming up in the game.

              I use high/low, even/odd, in/out, hot/cold and Win D's A/B "Alpha-bet" (love that name).  I track the skips for each of the four possibilities for each to see what is due -- eg. HHL, LLH, HHH, LLL.  Its probably the most informative page in my Excel (sorry!) spreadsheet.

               Very smart!! This is ,basically, how my system works. Now, tracking is one thing and isn't ,in itself, that difficult. But, knowing how to use it to your advantage is a whole other story. So, on the face of it, it seems simple. But, as it turns out, it's much more involved then anyone would have ever suspected.

                jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                Park City, UT
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                Posted: October 21, 2014, 4:49 pm - IP Logged
                October 22, 2014  -  October 26, 2014
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