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Do you think even if you play for years the chances of a decent win are still impossible?

Topic closed. 40 replies. Last post 7 years ago by eddessaknight.

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United States
Member #122462
February 1, 2012
530 Posts
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Hi everyone,

Just wondering if most people still believe that even if you play the lottery for years that it's impossible to win a jackpot? It seems way more likely to lose big time than to win a jackpot ever (especially when you take the odds of MM & PB into consideration).  Since I've kept myself on a strict budget over a year ago I can afford to play for the long haul but realistically know it's going to be even harder for me to win because I stopped playing scratch tickets and only buy the draw tickets and 1 ticket per draw when I play.

I still think the big spenders have more of an advantage when it comes to the lottery but after reading many posts here it still seems nearly impossible for even those big spenders to win something really big.  I am glad I've been realistic about my chances of winning the lottery but at the same time it's quite depressing to know I will never be able to retire.

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    United States
    Member #145261
    August 1, 2013
    1740 Posts
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    How many people win a jackpot/second tier per year?  What are the odds? Where do you live? How many tickets do you buy per draw?  I have been playing the lottery for over 15 years, so I would say yes to still impossible to win the lottery.

    I forgot one, why do you have to wait for a ton of people to play the lottery for one ticket to win?  Mmmmmmm

      Avatar
      California
      United States
      Member #141198
      April 7, 2013
      280 Posts
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      it's not impossible, it's very improbable. I still like to buy a few tickets per drawing just to keep me in the game.

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        United States
        Member #145261
        August 1, 2013
        1740 Posts
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        Long term??????  I think lottery games are going to change, we already have the first change, monopoly game.  People are not excited anymore about Mm and Pb.  Have you noticed less tv news stories and  no long lines to play the lottery.

          helpmewin's avatar - dandy
          100
          u$a
          United States
          Member #106660
          February 22, 2011
          19967 Posts
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          I'm still going to play Dance

          Patriot

            maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
            Massachusetts
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            April 14, 2006
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            The way this thing is set up shyguitar, more people are supposed to lose in favor of a lucky few. So it's best to spend as little as possible on lottery. Don't let the MA lottery website fool you with images of people smiling holding those big checks. It's a marketing gimmick. What they don't show you are the millions who spend a fortune and still never win. I'm happy that you were able to force yourself to spend less. Don't stop.

            That money's gone fo ever

              savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
              adelaide sa
              Australia
              Member #37135
              April 11, 2006
              3341 Posts
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              As I get older the chance i win gets less and less.because  the odds of winning my games keep going uo, yet the number of games i play dont change

              " Still swinging, still missing "
              2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = -1257 ; 2018 = - 1380 =  TOT =  - 6233

              keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 =-427; 2018= -223   TOT = -3968

              :

                RedStang's avatar - laughing chimp.gif
                NY
                United States
                Member #121955
                January 21, 2012
                3169 Posts
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                No need to spend a lot. I'm betting the last MM win was won with just a few tickets.

                  Romancandle's avatar - moon
                  Upacreek
                  United States
                  Member #136300
                  December 8, 2012
                  432 Posts
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                  it's not impossible, it's very improbable. I still like to buy a few tickets per drawing just to keep me in the game.

                  I Agree!

                  If you expect to win, you're gonna be upset... people have said it here before, you could live thousands of lifetimes and never win MM or PB.

                  Throw a few bucks at it, toss some salt over your shoulder and dream.

                  Throwing more $ at it, not a good idea

                  LOL

                  -RC


                    United States
                    Member #128784
                    June 2, 2012
                    5431 Posts
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                    Hi everyone,

                    Just wondering if most people still believe that even if you play the lottery for years that it's impossible to win a jackpot? It seems way more likely to lose big time than to win a jackpot ever (especially when you take the odds of MM & PB into consideration).  Since I've kept myself on a strict budget over a year ago I can afford to play for the long haul but realistically know it's going to be even harder for me to win because I stopped playing scratch tickets and only buy the draw tickets and 1 ticket per draw when I play.

                    I still think the big spenders have more of an advantage when it comes to the lottery but after reading many posts here it still seems nearly impossible for even those big spenders to win something really big.  I am glad I've been realistic about my chances of winning the lottery but at the same time it's quite depressing to know I will never be able to retire.

                    It's good to see that some here are coming to their senses. 

                    But at the same time, your last sentence remains disappointing. With all due respect, anyone who relies on a JP win as their retirement needs to sit down and really think about their sanity. It seems no matter how many times I write about the sad reality of the astronomical odds against someone winning a JP in their lifetime, they keep making threads or responding on threads as If they know for sure they will win eventually just because they feel they deserve it. 

                    You would think that at least some of the regular members and some who've been here even for a relatively short time, have read enough threads and did enough searches to see the near impossibility of winning a JP. The only thing I can think of is that they're in denial and don't care about FACTS.

                    Lastly, there's something else I'd like to point out shyguitar, in case you missed it as you were writing your last sentence. It's sort of Ironic. You write that it's quite depressing to know I will never be able to retire. Well have you and others here thought how much you could save by not spending so much money on such a futile attempt and put that money towards a retirement plan through a reputable long-term investment company like Prudential or some others?

                    I believe what I'm writing is probably futile also, but If just one person wakes up from their trance, then i did my good deed for the day.

                    My signature is not my opinion, it's a sad fact. Please people, play a couple of bucks a week for fun and hope a meteor hits you on the head, but don't rely on a JP as your way out. That's just insane.

                      GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
                      Florida - West Coast
                      United States
                      Member #92605
                      June 10, 2010
                      5245 Posts
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                      It's good to see that some here are coming to their senses. 

                      But at the same time, your last sentence remains disappointing. With all due respect, anyone who relies on a JP win as their retirement needs to sit down and really think about their sanity. It seems no matter how many times I write about the sad reality of the astronomical odds against someone winning a JP in their lifetime, they keep making threads or responding on threads as If they know for sure they will win eventually just because they feel they deserve it. 

                      You would think that at least some of the regular members and some who've been here even for a relatively short time, have read enough threads and did enough searches to see the near impossibility of winning a JP. The only thing I can think of is that they're in denial and don't care about FACTS.

                      Lastly, there's something else I'd like to point out shyguitar, in case you missed it as you were writing your last sentence. It's sort of Ironic. You write that it's quite depressing to know I will never be able to retire. Well have you and others here thought how much you could save by not spending so much money on such a futile attempt and put that money towards a retirement plan through a reputable long-term investment company like Prudential or some others?

                      I believe what I'm writing is probably futile also, but If just one person wakes up from their trance, then i did my good deed for the day.

                      My signature is not my opinion, it's a sad fact. Please people, play a couple of bucks a week for fun and hope a meteor hits you on the head, but don't rely on a JP as your way out. That's just insane.

                      I have to agree.

                      People should realize that the lottery is a sucker bet, and that most likely they'll never win a jackpot.  That said, there's nothing wrong with playing, provided you don't get carried away with how much you spend.

                      As for me, it's all about the chase.  I have fun studying the numbers, and trying to win a few bucks.  It's my only vice, but I really don't think of it as a vice.  Instead I think of it as more of a hobby than anything else.  People that know me at work, know that I am knowledgeable about the lottery, and a few seek me out to ask me questions about various online draw games.  I never offer any advice as to how or what games to play unless I'm asked for it.

                      There's only one sure thing I do know about playing the lottery and that's this:  You'll never win a dime if you don't play it.  So while by buying a ticket I'm not giving myself much of an opportunity to win some money, I've still got a chance.  Maybe one day I'll be very glad I bought a ticket.  I should add that it wouldn't take a life changing event like winning a Jackpot to make me happy either.  If I won $300,000 and netted just $200,000, then I know I'd feel great about having played. G5

                      Play Smart!

                        DoctorWhy's avatar - 04 05.jpg
                        Indianapolis, IN
                        United States
                        Member #151835
                        January 28, 2014
                        119 Posts
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                        I agree. I enjoying the thrill of discovering if a number might hit in a nightly draw. For me, this is a hobby. I have won here and there but I never lose sight of the fact that the odds are always stacked against me. Never rely on the lottery for financial independence.

                        Think amongst Chaos. Play in Order.


                          United States
                          Member #106129
                          February 13, 2011
                          806 Posts
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                          No one's ever really explained this, but why is it impossible for most players to win, but yet way too easy for anyone who does win?  A previous mega millions winner from Illinois confirmed that it was way too easy.


                            United States
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                            June 2, 2012
                            5431 Posts
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                            No one's ever really explained this, but why is it impossible for most players to win, but yet way too easy for anyone who does win?  A previous mega millions winner from Illinois confirmed that it was way too easy.

                            That only proves the winner doesn't have a clue about the odds of the game. If it was so easy, the person would win many times since then. 

                            What nobody ever talks about is the millions of losers every week, just for that one or two people to win. 

                              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                              Happyland
                              United States
                              Member #146338
                              September 1, 2013
                              1175 Posts
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                              No one's ever really explained this, but why is it impossible for most players to win, but yet way too easy for anyone who does win?  A previous mega millions winner from Illinois confirmed that it was way too easy.

                              From 11/05/1997 to 11/05/2014, Powerball sold more than 33.7 BILLION tickets. How many people won the jackpot during that period? 204.

                              That comes out to about 12 people per year from a pool of nearly 2 billion tickets per year.

                              "Easy" for 204 people doesn't mean it's true, or that it's even remotely, possibly true for you. Especially when 33.7 billion other tickets lose.

                              As THRIFTY says, "You will never win a jackpot in your lifetime." Someone else may, but it won't be you. Won't be me either! Can is not equal to will.

                              With that said, a few dollars here and there doesn't hurt. But the lottery as a retirement plan is ludicrous. Might as well bet on penny stocks with that attitude.

                              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1