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How did you do in the Lottery in 2014?

Topic closed. 74 replies. Last post 2 years ago by mikemmk1990.

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How did you do in the Lottery n 2014?

Up Big [ 8 ]  [12.12%]
Up [ 8 ]  [12.12%]
Around Even [ 15 ]  [22.73%]
Down [ 23 ]  [34.85%]
Down and Out [ 12 ]  [18.18%]
Total Valid Votes [ 66 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 5 ]  
p4wanbi's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
WA
United States
Member #122238
January 27, 2012
180 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 2, 2015, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

Anybody can make a bold claim, but yours is pretty bold. How much did you win/lose/play in 2013 and 2012?

If you were playing WA Match 4 the odds of getting 49 hits in the number of trials suggested by your expenditures are so incalculable that it is impossible. Even more than 16 wins (32.7% of implied claimed 49 hits) has odds of nearly 1 in 400 billion. There's a 99.99% probability of having fewer than 8 wins.

If you were playing a traditional Pick 4 elsewhere which has top prize of $5K then you could win up to 22 times (22.5% of implied claimed 98 hits) before the odds become incalculable. At that point, anything over that many wins would have odds of 1 in 282.7 billion. There's a 99.99% probability of having fewer than 12 wins.

So why aren't you on the front page news, being hailed as the luckiest player alive? Regardless how quiet you think you can be, surely you know that news reporters audit the lottery's top winners every year? It's a matter of public record and curiosity. Someone hitting 49 times on Match 4 or 98 times on Pick 4 during a single year would get their attention. I'm not trying to be negative or anything, just realistic. I have a hunch your prizes came from elsewhere, if they do exist.

Enjoy your winnings and good luck this year Wink

U forgot to factor in the fact that all it takes is for me to hit one time with consecutive straight hit. For example, i can hit 1234 straight for $75.00 plus $10 of of 1234 for 50/50 wager thats total of 300k+75k+25k+12.5k so thats 412.5k. No winnings of lower than 1mil is to be on the news anymore. Look at each payout total of their lottery payout and then you will know.

playing what can be afforded...spend half of what was reclaimed.

    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    Happyland
    United States
    Member #146344
    September 1, 2013
    1131 Posts
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    Posted: January 2, 2015, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

    U forgot to factor in the fact that all it takes is for me to hit one time with consecutive straight hit. For example, i can hit 1234 straight for $75.00 plus $10 of of 1234 for 50/50 wager thats total of 300k+75k+25k+12.5k so thats 412.5k. No winnings of lower than 1mil is to be on the news anymore. Look at each payout total of their lottery payout and then you will know.

    Okay, so basically you aren't hitting a bunch of different draws; instead, you're hitting the same set of numbers in single draws?

    That is risky. The variance between wins would be pretty high. I mean, look how long some combinations go without showing. What's been your biggest drawdown?

    P.S. Which game again? I've presumed WA Match 4 but the biggest draw payout in 2014 was ~$88,000. There was a ~$316,000 payout in 2013 though.

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    2017: 0% (0 tickets)
    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19898 Posts
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      Posted: January 2, 2015, 1:54 pm - IP Logged

      This. I already put a note....that dont play like me so I really wish you dont want to know how. It is my way of playing and it is a very high risk process but it is so a guarantee return. I do not use my hard earned money to play...instead i use the $ I previously won. I started in 2012 and it has paid everything off for me. I am now working toward a new plan and other goals. Just one hint...I DO NOT play everyday.

      There is no way to play the lottery without risking losing your money, that is why it is called gambling.  Some players may be better at risk management than others but they all are taking a risk.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
        Bay Area - California
        United States
        Member #136477
        December 12, 2012
        4145 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 2, 2015, 1:55 pm - IP Logged

        Okay, so basically you aren't hitting a bunch of different draws; instead, you're hitting the same set of numbers in single draws?

        That is risky. The variance between wins would be pretty high. I mean, look how long some combinations go without showing. What's been your biggest drawdown?

        P.S. Which game again? I've presumed WA Match 4 but the biggest draw payout in 2014 was ~$88,000. There was a ~$316,000 payout in 2013 though.

        ** Overheard conversation between Holmes & Watson. 

        Holmes: Hmmmm.

        Watson: What? 

        Holmes: This should be interesting.....

        People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.

          p4wanbi's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
          WA
          United States
          Member #122238
          January 27, 2012
          180 Posts
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          Posted: January 2, 2015, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

          Okay, so basically you aren't hitting a bunch of different draws; instead, you're hitting the same set of numbers in single draws?

          That is risky. The variance between wins would be pretty high. I mean, look how long some combinations go without showing. What's been your biggest drawdown?

          P.S. Which game again? I've presumed WA Match 4 but the biggest draw payout in 2014 was ~$88,000. There was a ~$316,000 payout in 2013 though.

          Its VA Pick 4 not WA match 4. Payout is 5k per dollar straight and the rest is on their website. 

           

          RJOH: yes, very high risk and only take the risk when one can afford to. Again, my gambling is solely base on money that was won initially using earned money bet. That is why i said dont play like I did. I made sure the $ spent is of good returns on value. Its the same theory as poker play, when you value bet is when you bet the most while assuring you have the best hand. I bet the most when i have 99% assurance level over the risk taken. I prefer not to explain because it's not something most players can do anyways. So lets leave it at that :).

          playing what can be afforded...spend half of what was reclaimed.

            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
            Happyland
            United States
            Member #146344
            September 1, 2013
            1131 Posts
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            Posted: January 2, 2015, 3:05 pm - IP Logged

            Its VA Pick 4 not WA match 4. Payout is 5k per dollar straight and the rest is on their website. 

             

            RJOH: yes, very high risk and only take the risk when one can afford to. Again, my gambling is solely base on money that was won initially using earned money bet. That is why i said dont play like I did. I made sure the $ spent is of good returns on value. Its the same theory as poker play, when you value bet is when you bet the most while assuring you have the best hand. I bet the most when i have 99% assurance level over the risk taken. I prefer not to explain because it's not something most players can do anyways. So lets leave it at that :).

            Well, even if you played VA Pick 4, the combination you stated (1-2-3-4) wasn't drawn in 2014. And it's only been drawn TWICE since 1991. Eek

            Or were you just using that as an example? Not meaning to be picky but bold claims require bold evidence. Smile

            There's really no such thing as 99% assurance in the lottery, unless you buy 99% of combinations. That's simple math. I've searched my own lottery and if you played the same numbers every draw for $75 a pop you would be out over $400,000 and counting. So risky is an understatement.

            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

            2017: 0% (0 tickets)
            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

              p4wanbi's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
              WA
              United States
              Member #122238
              January 27, 2012
              180 Posts
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              Posted: January 2, 2015, 3:46 pm - IP Logged

              Yes lottometro. Its just an example to show the winning amount and such different ways to add up the winning.  I am not going to post evidence here. But look at payout for 0700 and you can see that special day of mine. Yes there is 99% assurance but not in math or probability..but base on history of patterns and numbers reading skills. Its something either you have it or you dont. And no, not playing that same number over and over...thats just throwing money into a toilet and push the flush button.

              playing what can be afforded...spend half of what was reclaimed.

                Avatar
                South Carolina
                United States
                Member #18322
                July 9, 2005
                1744 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: January 2, 2015, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

                Its VA Pick 4 not WA match 4. Payout is 5k per dollar straight and the rest is on their website. 

                 

                RJOH: yes, very high risk and only take the risk when one can afford to. Again, my gambling is solely base on money that was won initially using earned money bet. That is why i said dont play like I did. I made sure the $ spent is of good returns on value. Its the same theory as poker play, when you value bet is when you bet the most while assuring you have the best hand. I bet the most when i have 99% assurance level over the risk taken. I prefer not to explain because it's not something most players can do anyways. So lets leave it at that :).

                Just curious:  You're from Washington state, but you play in Virginia ??? Are you playing Pick 4 online, where the payout is higher ???  Or, do you currently live and play in Virginia ???

                 

                Hypothetically, If you wager $20 Straight on Pick 4, and win [$5000 payout], you would gross $100,000. You are claiming to have won $490k in 2014. Therefore, you Won at least 5 times at a wager of $20 StraightThis is possibleThis is also the easiest way [type of wager] to win a large sum of money, playing Pick 4.

                 

                You're absolutely RIGHT, that Pick 4 is the ONLY lottery game WORTH PLAYING !!!

                  Avatar
                  Kentucky
                  United States
                  Member #32652
                  February 14, 2006
                  7343 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 2, 2015, 4:11 pm - IP Logged

                  Okay, so basically you aren't hitting a bunch of different draws; instead, you're hitting the same set of numbers in single draws?

                  That is risky. The variance between wins would be pretty high. I mean, look how long some combinations go without showing. What's been your biggest drawdown?

                  P.S. Which game again? I've presumed WA Match 4 but the biggest draw payout in 2014 was ~$88,000. There was a ~$316,000 payout in 2013 though.

                  Washington doesn't have a traditional pick-4 game and it would require hits on multiple days to win almost 1/2 million playing their Match 4 game. So they must be playing in another state's pick-4 game. My skepticism is mostly on the $35,000 in wagers, the "I don't play everyday" comment, and the significance of making five .50/.50 bets. 

                  Had they just said they wagered $100 on one pick-4 straight combination every day for a year and got lucky, there would be less skepticism.

                  "instead, you're hitting the same set of numbers in single draws? That is risky."

                  With $35,000 a year to wager, they can make 357 $100 bets, but the amount wagered on one bet can't change the 9999 to 1 odds against it winning. According to their figures only one 1 out the 357 bets paid off, but that means their strategy is still 28 times better than probability.

                    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                    Happyland
                    United States
                    Member #146344
                    September 1, 2013
                    1131 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 2, 2015, 4:12 pm - IP Logged

                    Yes lottometro. Its just an example to show the winning amount and such different ways to add up the winning.  I am not going to post evidence here. But look at payout for 0700 and you can see that special day of mine. Yes there is 99% assurance but not in math or probability..but base on history of patterns and numbers reading skills. Its something either you have it or you dont. And no, not playing that same number over and over...thats just throwing money into a toilet and push the flush button.

                    Gotcha Thumbs Up So not really the numbers themselves but you wait for a specific pattern and THEN you play a bunch?

                    I'll digress on the matter of math vs. reading in the lottery, since I'm inclined to trust the laws of mathematics over tea leaves or patterns LOL

                    Nevertheless, you have obviously hit a winfall and can now play with house money (so as to speak), which could bring some nice hits in 2015.

                    @DC:

                    Winning Pick 4 straight even 5 times in a single year would be highly improbable. Pretty much better off playing for a jackpot at those odds.

                    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                    2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                      Avatar
                      South Carolina
                      United States
                      Member #18322
                      July 9, 2005
                      1744 Posts
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                      Posted: January 2, 2015, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

                      Washington doesn't have a traditional pick-4 game and it would require hits on multiple days to win almost 1/2 million playing their Match 4 game. So they must be playing in another state's pick-4 game. My skepticism is mostly on the $35,000 in wagers, the "I don't play everyday" comment, and the significance of making five .50/.50 bets. 

                      Had they just said they wagered $100 on one pick-4 straight combination every day for a year and got lucky, there would be less skepticism.

                      "instead, you're hitting the same set of numbers in single draws? That is risky."

                      With $35,000 a year to wager, they can make 357 $100 bets, but the amount wagered on one bet can't change the 9999 to 1 odds against it winning. According to their figures only one 1 out the 357 bets paid off, but that means their strategy is still 28 times better than probability.

                      Following p4wanbi's Logic: If you wait until the EXACT RIGHT TIME to play Pick 4 STRAIGHT, on a $1000 annual lottery budget: if you Wager $20 STRAIGHT 5 times annually, and WIN [$5000 payout], you win $500,000.  You have only spent $100, for this payout. [not counting the loses in between, which cannot exceed your $1000 budget.]

                      If you Play Timely & Wager Smart, [like p4wanbi], and don't go over your $1000 yearly lottery budget, You CAN WIN $500,000 playing like this.  Hypothetically, It is POSSIBLE.

                        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                        Happyland
                        United States
                        Member #146344
                        September 1, 2013
                        1131 Posts
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                        Posted: January 2, 2015, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

                        Following p4wanbi's Logic: If you wait until the EXACT RIGHT TIME to play Pick 4 STRAIGHT, on a $1000 annual lottery budget: if you Wager $20 STRAIGHT 5 times annually, and WIN [$5000 payout], you win $500,000.  You have only spent $100, for this payout. [not counting the loses in between, which cannot exceed your $1000 budget.]

                        If you Play Timely & Wager Smart, [like p4wanbi], and don't go over your $1000 yearly lottery budget, You CAN WIN $500,000 playing like this.  Hypothetically, It is POSSIBLE.

                        Hypothetically anything is possible but only with perfect knowledge. Waiting until the exact right time....easier said than done. If every player did this then the lottery wouldn't exist. If any system or pattern existed that was truly predictable, then again, due to perfect knowledge the lottery wouldn't exist. Think about it.

                        The patterns that players track are not unique to their information. All players have the same information, and there are only so many patterns or combinations of patterns that can exist in the finite space of possibilities. So any one pattern that was really effective would be overplayed and the lottery would go broke or eliminate fixed prizes. People get lucky...this is a fact....but the vast majority do not. I'm sure p4wanbi is not the only player who plays big. There are many others who play big.....and lose. It is easy to say that I spent X and won Y, but how long have you played and how close would you come to going broke given a finite bankroll? I mean, if you believe in patterns then you should be throwing money at the stock market, not the stingy lottery. Bet big on those penny stocks! LOL

                        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                        2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                          p4wanbi's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                          WA
                          United States
                          Member #122238
                          January 27, 2012
                          180 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 2, 2015, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

                          Hypothetically anything is possible but only with perfect knowledge. Waiting until the exact right time....easier said than done. If every player did this then the lottery wouldn't exist. If any system or pattern existed that was truly predictable, then again, due to perfect knowledge the lottery wouldn't exist. Think about it.

                          The patterns that players track are not unique to their information. All players have the same information, and there are only so many patterns or combinations of patterns that can exist in the finite space of possibilities. So any one pattern that was really effective would be overplayed and the lottery would go broke or eliminate fixed prizes. People get lucky...this is a fact....but the vast majority do not. I'm sure p4wanbi is not the only player who plays big. There are many others who play big.....and lose. It is easy to say that I spent X and won Y, but how long have you played and how close would you come to going broke given a finite bankroll? I mean, if you believe in patterns then you should be throwing money at the stock market, not the stingy lottery. Bet big on those penny stocks! LOL

                          Riight i lost alot before i win. I timed and played...but sometimes the 1% took over and i lost also play different styles as well...they include number matching and a few others but i lost on those more than winning. Thats why this year spent lower to hit bigger.

                          playing what can be afforded...spend half of what was reclaimed.

                            Avatar
                            Kentucky
                            United States
                            Member #32652
                            February 14, 2006
                            7343 Posts
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                            Posted: January 2, 2015, 5:55 pm - IP Logged

                            Its VA Pick 4 not WA match 4. Payout is 5k per dollar straight and the rest is on their website. 

                             

                            RJOH: yes, very high risk and only take the risk when one can afford to. Again, my gambling is solely base on money that was won initially using earned money bet. That is why i said dont play like I did. I made sure the $ spent is of good returns on value. Its the same theory as poker play, when you value bet is when you bet the most while assuring you have the best hand. I bet the most when i have 99% assurance level over the risk taken. I prefer not to explain because it's not something most players can do anyways. So lets leave it at that :).

                            When I saw where Washington State doesn't have a pick-4 game, I thought maybe your "WA" meant D.C.

                            "Its the same theory as poker play, when you value bet is when you bet the most while assuring you have the best hand."

                            In other words, you're risking $98 trying to win $490,000, but the odds are still 9999 to 1. A value bet in poker is when a player has the best possible hand and makes a smaller bet hoping to get a call or better yet a raise.

                              p4wanbi's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
                              WA
                              United States
                              Member #122238
                              January 27, 2012
                              180 Posts
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                              Posted: January 2, 2015, 6:09 pm - IP Logged

                              Right thats small bet actually. A valuable bet depends on how much is in the pot and your very best hands compare to the cards on the table. So the value bet to me is that much of a bet.

                              playing what can be afforded...spend half of what was reclaimed.