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A discussion of the math, probability and theories of the the Lottery

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 2 years ago by CashCrown.

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tdempsey's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
Atlanta, GA
United States
Member #3480
January 24, 2004
51 Posts
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Posted: February 24, 2015, 12:48 am - IP Logged

Hi!

I have many filters I have developed concerning the lottery and wanted to start a discussion on my math and probability theories with others who are interested. I have been a computer programmer for over 20 years and have worked on the lottery for other 12 years.

Of course, many of these concepts are in the "books" but I also have other concepts I want to share and explore. Discussing the book theories would be helpful.

Let me know if others are interested. I am guessing this is the best topic section to bring up this idea and I look forward to sharing my 12+ years investigating these principles and well as sharing with others.

No extensive knowledge of statistics will be required.

BTW - my A01 (axiom 01) involves the sum of the draws. (Draws add up to a sum - rule #1.) Sums follow a pattern and make a distribution curve. 

I will also be including charts for examples.

EG: Sample Georgia Fantasy 5

A01 - Sum

Cheers!

Tom Dempsey

    tdempsey's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
    Atlanta, GA
    United States
    Member #3480
    January 24, 2004
    51 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: February 24, 2015, 12:51 am - IP Logged

    Question #1 - what is the proper way to post an in-line image in my post? I used the message form with the Windows path.

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      New Member

      United States
      Member #163312
      January 26, 2015
      8 Posts
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      Posted: February 25, 2015, 8:21 am - IP Logged

      Hello,

      I would be willing to engage in a discussion with you.  I have tried to make use of sums before but didn't have any luck with it.  I never could formulate any kind of strategy for it so I was akin to blind man with a bb gun trying to shoot a bullet that was traveling at light speed.  But I guess that is the way the lottery is designed, eh?

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        bgonçalves
        Brasil
        Member #92564
        June 9, 2010
        2122 Posts
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        Posted: February 25, 2015, 9:24 am - IP Logged

        Hello, td, the filters have a problem, they can give conflicts need
        Find basic patterns and then rotating filter

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
          Member #59354
          March 13, 2008
          3971 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: February 26, 2015, 3:18 pm - IP Logged

          tdempsey

           

          To add a picture to your post you have a couple options.   You can upgrade your LP account and

          then upload you pics or use something like tinypic.  Link->http://tinypic.com/  After uploading your

          image Tinypic will provide a link that you can copy and paste into the post using the tools Todd has

          provided. 

          As for the topic content I think just about everything one could imagine has been posted here at

          one time or another.  Lots of good ideas that can help but none go so far as putting a winning ticket

          in your hand.  Filters are the killers of jackpots.  Not that filters are bad it's just that if often takes too

          many to reduce to a playable amount of lines.  Each filter used increases the odds.  Lets say that you

          can reduce the matrix with 10 filters set to single values.  If each filter has five options then the odds 

          of hitting them all are 1 in 5x5x5x5x5x5x5x5x5x5=9,765,625.  This value can often exceed the total

          number of lines within the matrix because not all filter values have the same reduction effect.

           

          simple odd/even example

          In a 5-39 matrix around 70% of the sets in the matrix will have either 2 or 3 odd numbers.  Sets with

          0-1-4-5 odd numbers make up the remaining 30%.  If you set a odd number filter to 1 then it will have

          a big effect on the reduction where setting 2 or 3 will have far less.

           

          The worth of a filtering system is really not how well it reduces but how easy it is to predict.  We can have

          great reduction filters but if we can't predict them then they have no real value.  I am a fellow programmer

          and have been writing lottery software for close to 25 years now.   Predicting the JP is a pipe dream but

          the lower prizes are anyone's game. 

           

          Post away, always interested to see what others are doing.

           

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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            New Member

            United States
            Member #163312
            January 26, 2015
            8 Posts
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            Posted: February 27, 2015, 2:14 am - IP Logged

            Hi RL

            I agree with you about the filters.  My observation has been that whenever I notice a "pattern" its already run its course and it never shows again.  The only pattern is that there is no pattern so how do you base a filter on that?  I try to build my guesses around odds and probability.  i.e. sequential numbers. For MM,  12345 and the like only compose 71 combinations out of the 275 million possibilities.  Thats a very small percentage so i don't play them.  It doesn't mean it cant or wont happen.  But at the end of the day, no matter how you slice it, the odds are the odds and you can't change them.  However, I'm all for exploring the possibility of beating them.

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

              United States
              Member #59354
              March 13, 2008
              3971 Posts
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              Posted: February 27, 2015, 8:41 am - IP Logged

              dainbramaged

              The best way to calculate filter ranges is to use the population and distribution taken from the entire matrix.

              Most patterns are after the fact illusions and as such it's very hard to tell the difference until after the draw

              has come and gone.   There are many tips and tricks that can help put us closer but chance is going to play

              a role no matter how much effort we put into our selections.  Too much analysis, leads to paralysis.  Maybe 

              the best trick is knowing when to stop analyzing and make our best guess.  I have said many times that I

              play the lottery like searching for a lost treasure.  I get out all my maps, charts etc.. and decide where I will

              dig next.  If someone gets there before me it's no problem, the treasure is always is replaced by another. 

              RL

              Sad Cheers

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                Economy class
                Belgium
                Member #123700
                February 27, 2012
                4035 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: February 27, 2015, 1:02 pm - IP Logged

                Hello,

                I would be willing to engage in a discussion with you.  I have tried to make use of sums before but didn't have any luck with it.  I never could formulate any kind of strategy for it so I was akin to blind man with a bb gun trying to shoot a bullet that was traveling at light speed.  But I guess that is the way the lottery is designed, eh?

                Use average instead of sums! Thumbs Up

                  riscknight's avatar - riscknight
                  Athens
                  Greece
                  Member #133234
                  September 24, 2012
                  188 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: March 1, 2015, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

                  dainbramaged

                  The best way to calculate filter ranges is to use the population and distribution taken from the entire matrix.

                  Most patterns are after the fact illusions and as such it's very hard to tell the difference until after the draw

                  has come and gone.   There are many tips and tricks that can help put us closer but chance is going to play

                  a role no matter how much effort we put into our selections.  Too much analysis, leads to paralysis.  Maybe 

                  the best trick is knowing when to stop analyzing and make our best guess.  I have said many times that I

                  play the lottery like searching for a lost treasure.  I get out all my maps, charts etc.. and decide where I will

                  dig next.  If someone gets there before me it's no problem, the treasure is always is replaced by another. 

                  RL

                  Sad Cheers

                  I have said many times that I

                  play the lottery like searching for a lost treasure.  I get out all my maps, charts etc.. and decide where I will

                  dig next.  If someone gets there before me it's no problem, the treasure is always is replaced by another. 

                  RL

                  Sad Cheers

                  You'll find your own treasure; I am quite sure. Just keep *trying* and 'searching'. Cheers

                  6/49 dis(assembly)

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                    New Member

                    United States
                    Member #163312
                    January 26, 2015
                    8 Posts
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                    Posted: March 1, 2015, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

                    RL...that was well said, great analogy.  I have actually put a lot of effort into coding my selection scripts to keep me away from where the holes have already been dug.  My observation is that lightning rarely strikes twice in the lottery.  Last weeks winner is next weeks loser from now on.

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                      New Member
                      norman
                      United States
                      Member #164499
                      March 4, 2015
                      6 Posts
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                      Posted: March 12, 2015, 5:18 am - IP Logged

                      based on your research and fact findings to win a jackpot, is it better to play 16 mega millions tickets each drawing or play 9 powerball tickets each drawing?

                       

                      best regards...

                        Avatar
                        Arizona
                        United States
                        Member #165073
                        March 24, 2015
                        220 Posts
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                        Posted: March 26, 2015, 8:33 pm - IP Logged

                        based on your research and fact findings to win a jackpot, is it better to play 16 mega millions tickets each drawing or play 9 powerball tickets each drawing?

                         

                        best regards...

                        If you're only concerned with the jackpot and don't care about lesser prizes, you're about 20% more likely to win with 16 mega millions tickets. The probability for both options is still worse than 1 in 15 million.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                          mid-Ohio
                          United States
                          Member #9
                          March 24, 2001
                          19826 Posts
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                          Posted: April 20, 2015, 1:48 am - IP Logged

                          based on your research and fact findings to win a jackpot, is it better to play 16 mega millions tickets each drawing or play 9 powerball tickets each drawing?

                           

                          best regards...

                          With 15 mega millions ticket you can play all 15 megaballs guaranteeing at least $1 or 7% of your money back.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                            Economy class
                            Belgium
                            Member #123700
                            February 27, 2012
                            4035 Posts
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                            Posted: April 20, 2015, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

                            The average probability is that you lose money. The bank has the advantage. If you win, you pay taxes or not on the payout, depending of where you live. Consider that your money is taxed money and when you play it is taxed again, finally your eventual wins are also taxed. When you buy something with the net wins, the price again contains taxes. Are you a tax accountant?