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A discussion of the math, probability and theories of the the Lottery

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 2 years ago by CashCrown.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19831 Posts
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Posted: April 20, 2015, 2:09 pm - IP Logged

The average probability is that you lose money. The bank has the advantage. If you win, you pay taxes or not on the payout, depending of where you live. Consider that your money is taxed money and when you play it is taxed again, finally your eventual wins are also taxed. When you buy something with the net wins, the price again contains taxes. Are you a tax accountant?

To match the odds of winning any lottery prize requires the player to spent more than the prize is worth so anyone playing should expect to lose money unless they get lucky.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
    Economy class
    Belgium
    Member #123700
    February 27, 2012
    4035 Posts
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    Posted: April 21, 2015, 9:21 am - IP Logged

    To match the odds of winning any lottery prize requires the player to spent more than the prize is worth so anyone playing should expect to lose money unless they get lucky.

    By deduction it is do not play, unless you want to lose on it. Don't even try your luck when you badly need the money. You just might come short in money. No system will help, no program will do it, facts are there, the only winners are those who earn on ticket sales.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19831 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 21, 2015, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

      To match the odds of winning any lottery prize requires the player to spent more than the prize is worth so anyone playing should expect to lose money unless they get lucky.

      Most people claim losing money isn't entertaining but that's what playing the lotteries is unless you get lucky.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
        Economy class
        Belgium
        Member #123700
        February 27, 2012
        4035 Posts
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        Posted: April 22, 2015, 10:49 am - IP Logged

        Many of the lotterypost members are into programming as hobby or as profession. For those it is the making of applications that more often are not meant to be distributed. The fun is in using the self made applications and in playing real cash.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19831 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 22, 2015, 7:12 pm - IP Logged

          Many of the lotterypost members are into programming as hobby or as profession. For those it is the making of applications that more often are not meant to be distributed. The fun is in using the self made applications and in playing real cash.

          Members who program as a hobby shouldn't distribute their programs since there are many bugs that can pop up that the regular users aren't willing to deal with and they expect the programmers to correct them even if they aren't professionals. 

          I have some old GWBasic programs that I complied and they worked fine on Windows XP until MicroSoft stopped supporting it.  I've been converting them to work on Windows 8 using QB64 and coming up with a lot of surprises that I'm willing to work around until I learn more about QB or another language to correct or rewrite them which wouldn't be acceptable to someone else.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

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            Dallas,TX
            United States
            Member #152930
            March 1, 2014
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            Posted: May 18, 2015, 2:31 pm - IP Logged

            Hi!

            I have many filters I have developed concerning the lottery and wanted to start a discussion on my math and probability theories with others who are interested. I have been a computer programmer for over 20 years and have worked on the lottery for other 12 years.

            Of course, many of these concepts are in the "books" but I also have other concepts I want to share and explore. Discussing the book theories would be helpful.

            Let me know if others are interested. I am guessing this is the best topic section to bring up this idea and I look forward to sharing my 12+ years investigating these principles and well as sharing with others.

            No extensive knowledge of statistics will be required.

            BTW - my A01 (axiom 01) involves the sum of the draws. (Draws add up to a sum - rule #1.) Sums follow a pattern and make a distribution curve. 

            I will also be including charts for examples.

            EG: Sample Georgia Fantasy 5

            A01 - Sum

            Cheers!

            Tom Dempsey

            Tom - You are just the person I need to talk to.  I'm retired - sorta - but have spent many hours on the Lotto Texas drawings.  Started and learned some things with the Scratch-Offs, but have figured out some things related to the 'value' of certain numbers.  I am a firm believer that the numbers chosen (I use chosen loosely) are, well, let's just say related to month-day-year.  Something else of interest - look at the winners zip and address on scratch tickets and you will find a constant number in every single winner.  The address of the store and the zip code.  However, quickly look at this = the Mega Millions draw for 05-16-2015.  I have consistently found a way to find the mega-ball or bonus-ball.  This is Texas, so don't know if it works for other states.  First, there are some strict guidelines I have found to be true (otherwise, why continue, right?).  I have posted this before but it has to do with the reduction value of higher numbers: ex: 9=4, 8=3, 7=0 (or 1, 10 depending on where located or IF there is another 7) and 6=5.  Zeros have a value, but more on that later.  OH - and make note of YOUR ZIP - find any scratch game where the winners zips add up to YOURS - play that game - also, note the address.  I made an earlier post on this showing how the winners ALL have similar address-zips (Red Diamond 7s) game - it's so obvious if you look.

            To find the MB or BB, look to the Quick-Picks and they will give you the numbers, you must simply add using reduction and non-consecutive 'like' numbers.  So, the winning numbers were: 11-17-21-36-74, MB 15.  I add the 2 digits of all 5 numbers, then reduce to the values I know to be correct.  When presented with duplicate numbers (11) ADD the dups and get the #, in this case, 11=2.

            11= 2

            17= 3 (8s = 3s) *in some cases, the 7 = 0, but even still, that would leave a 1, and two 1s preceded, which would make the 10 a third 1 = 3.

            21= 1 (why? 2+1=3, but cannot have consecutive duplicate #s, so in EVERY instance, like numbers in line revert to a 1 (OR if a 1 has shown, a 2 etc).

            36= 4 (9s are 4s, so 9=4)

            74= 5 (why? 7+4=11, 1+1=2, 2 has been used, as has 1,3,4.  The next unused number would be 5.  Now add 2,3,1,4,5.  15.

            MB=15  This works - if you apply the values and no-repeat numbers.  Interestingly, I get three QPs and those, too, add up, as well.

            As for the draw numbers, I use the 05-15-2015 and have found a format that form 4 sections with 4 single numbers.  From these numbers, you can methodically ADD the correct combo (in order) to get (what I believe) is close to a winning selection.  I say close, because I'm still tweaking this and, amazingly (I guess because it's the same for all the draw games) it will work to make some money and, with repeated play, perhaps HIT the right combo - IF IF IF there isn't some unknown technical way for the numbers to be manipulated.  I have used this reduction method (it's what I call it, I am NO PhD in Math:), but I wish I could write the algorithm for what I've come up with (Tom, can you do this?)  In the last 2 months, I have had 3 of 4 with BB on Texas Two-Step, 4 of 5 THREE TIMES on CASH 5, and first 4 of 6 with BB in the Texas Lotto.  Since then, I've tweaked this and I think (if the playing field is, in fact, LEVEL), I have found something - again, until I DO prove a winner (show PROOF) then it's just a theory, right?  Until then, I'll just say this:  Imagine a row of marbles 2-2-2-2, now, if you take the last marble and put it in the first position of the row, you still have 2-2-2-2, BUT, a much different way to view things.  That's all I can say right now. 

            I think we all make this harder than it is, but ANY generator of a number set must be based on something.  I personally do not believe the 'random ball in a box' drawing.  Tell you why - I've watched and the camera is zoomed OUT when the balls are flying around, but zooms in close when the ball rolls down - it's all you can see.  Then, it zooms back, far enough away - so, sure it would take some work, but who is to say some fine editing can't be done to make it appear as if the balls are randomly sucked into the tube?  At least, enough ppl believe this.  And, isn't it a mathematical certainty that (on occasion) there would be 3,4+ winners of a quick pick???  Never is.  Maybe 1 or none.  I would believe more if that were the case.  And, I'm not wanting to argue this, it's only an observation.  PAY ATTENTION to QPs - they provide info - you know that 7 digit number in the bottom left corner?  Next time you get a QP, add up the numbers between 'like' numbers and see what happens!  Rules apply.  Lastly, if you do add up the 4 sections of 2 digits from the mo-day-year?  Do NOT carry over to the next column, simply write down the total of each row.  It's here you will find some interesting info.  Sorry this is long, but I'd like to know about your filters, how you work these, etc.  Feel free to PM me.  And the reason that number values are as I presented is that it keeps more single digits, ex: 9+8 = 17, but 4+3=7, etc.  I picked all this up from the 20K of scratch-tix and study of the bar-codes, packet numbers and yes ALL those numbers at the bottom of your Lotto draw ticket mean something.  If you don't know what they mean?  You need to (and why that 4-digit number, the one that starts with a 9 always changes by +1 every day.  Then the 2 sets of 7 digits in lower left and right of ticket.  Advice:  After a drawing, go back and look at the numbers AND especially the number below your $amount of your ticket (usually a 4-digit number).  More on this later.  Thanks for this, Tom.  Hope to learn something to add to my mix and maybe = just maybe - you know, win a good one. As for the QPs?  Use them to your advantage.  And, get at least three to compare and see if you come up with the same numbers on each set - it helps.  Because I can get even two, three numbers right and the BB, this is what leads me to believe practice and REVIEW can, perhaps, show that these drawings may or may not be random.  Then, again, why would there be a need to manipulate with such huge odds in their favor?  Still, a chance to stumble upon something.

            CC  (a big Mega coming up!  Would be a fine time to nail this one.  Willing to join in on investment with shared info or as a group)