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Say goodbye to PB & MM soon!

Topic closed. 91 replies. Last post 2 years ago by maximumfun.

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LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
Happyland
United States
Member #146344
September 1, 2013
1129 Posts
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Posted: April 3, 2015, 8:57 am - IP Logged

Thanks LottoMetro, again.

Your information is always accurate.

Did a little more prying and turns out the directors are concerned of a MMC repeat, i.e. game will be too confusing for players. It is still slated to start sales July 12th but I have a feeling they may be revamping the second chance / Power Plus aspect of the game. They also admitted it won't help jackpot fatigue, which is interesting since the majority of lottery conference forums have included a focus discussion on resolving this problem. There is even talk now of some states dropping Powerball in favor of their own jackpot games. Cold feet are going around, especially since the lack of big jackpots is hurting states that rely on the game so much.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

    Original Bey's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

    Bahamas
    Member #133462
    September 30, 2012
    5946 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 3, 2015, 9:13 am - IP Logged

    Did a little more prying and turns out the directors are concerned of a MMC repeat, i.e. game will be too confusing for players. It is still slated to start sales July 12th but I have a feeling they may be revamping the second chance / Power Plus aspect of the game. They also admitted it won't help jackpot fatigue, which is interesting since the majority of lottery conference forums have included a focus discussion on resolving this problem. There is even talk now of some states dropping Powerball in favor of their own jackpot games. Cold feet are going around, especially since the lack of big jackpots is hurting states that rely on the game so much.

    If one of the Big4 threatens to pull out I guarantee that the MUSL would revamp in a sensible way. States are getting hit hard. They need to find a fiscally responsible way to improve lower tier prizes.

    "Everything works  ONCE!"


      United States
      Member #106134
      February 13, 2011
      806 Posts
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      Posted: April 3, 2015, 9:42 am - IP Logged

      I am STUNNED!  Jackpots have rolled and cheats have been shut down!  It's a miracle.

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        Morrison, IL
        United States
        Member #4657
        May 13, 2004
        1884 Posts
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        Posted: April 4, 2015, 11:48 pm - IP Logged

        This is the first time though, that Mega Millions is still at a minimum jackpot after three draws without a winner (the $15 million plus the three minimum increases of only $5 million).  Sales for both multi-state games are already in the crapper and it will be even worse for PB after their game change.

        ---

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
          United States
          Member #30470
          January 17, 2006
          10354 Posts
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          Posted: April 5, 2015, 1:18 am - IP Logged

          LottoMetro,

          Thanks again!

          Gee, hard to tell what they could do to lessen jackpot fatigue.

          As for the state lotteries since IL now has MM and PB the lotto jp creeps but gets somewhat pumped up occasionally - $10 M maybe but even that's been awhile.

          Missouri rarely cracks $3 or $4 M so that should be interesting.

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19831 Posts
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            Posted: April 5, 2015, 4:54 am - IP Logged

            I am STUNNED!  Jackpots have rolled and cheats have been shut down!  It's a miracle.

            If as you think, cheats have been winning this game they haven't been shut down but just waiting until the jackpot grows little more.  Besides, if they are only playing the most repeatable patterns then they can only expect to win 20% of the time.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              pickone4me's avatar - 021414tvlies zpsa453b327.jpg
              Wisconsin
              United States
              Member #104962
              January 23, 2011
              1075 Posts
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              Posted: April 5, 2015, 9:40 am - IP Logged

              Did a little more prying and turns out the directors are concerned of a MMC repeat, i.e. game will be too confusing for players. It is still slated to start sales July 12th but I have a feeling they may be revamping the second chance / Power Plus aspect of the game. They also admitted it won't help jackpot fatigue, which is interesting since the majority of lottery conference forums have included a focus discussion on resolving this problem. There is even talk now of some states dropping Powerball in favor of their own jackpot games. Cold feet are going around, especially since the lack of big jackpots is hurting states that rely on the game so much.

              People are tired of the same places winning fatigue. Kudos to those states that might drop powerball,  at least they don't have to worry about money flowing out of the state, to one that isn't worthy.

              Trump 2016!

                hearsetrax's avatar - 0118

                United States
                Member #52345
                May 21, 2007
                2659 Posts
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                Posted: April 5, 2015, 10:14 am - IP Logged

                People are tired of the same places winning fatigue. Kudos to those states that might drop powerball,  at least they don't have to worry about money flowing out of the state, to one that isn't worthy.

                Skeptical and wisconsin is a worthy state??

                 

                since when ??

                  rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                  Texas
                  United States
                  Member #55889
                  October 23, 2007
                  5615 Posts
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                  Posted: April 5, 2015, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

                  Skeptical and wisconsin is a worthy state??

                   

                  since when ??

                  Florida, Ohio, and Texas had second prize PB winners last night.

                  Apparently they were worthy!

                  CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                  A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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                    frontenac, kansas
                    United States
                    Member #67724
                    December 3, 2008
                    199 Posts
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                    Posted: April 5, 2015, 12:38 pm - IP Logged

                    I think JJ and a couple of others missed their last dose of medicine...

                      Avatar
                      Krypton
                      United States
                      Member #140102
                      March 11, 2013
                      892 Posts
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                      Posted: April 5, 2015, 12:54 pm - IP Logged

                      Because it's going to go BANKRUPT!

                      I hope you morons here are starting to see my point of view and understand that it is WAY TOO EASY to win these games.  I predict both will never roll again...EVER, they'll perpetually stay at $15 million and $40 million until they go bankrupt.  Winners are winning way too easily and ruining the games.

                      That's why we need a new MUSL games called Uberball!  It would be quick pick only and computerized draws.  It would be 5+1 with 500,000,000,000,000 "white balls" and 100,000,000,000,000 "bonus balls"  This game would not be too easy to win, it would probably be guaranteed to roll at least 2-3 times even.

                      The point is that these games need to be made HARD!

                      Winners are sitting back and laughing once they collect their checks & thinking "Man that was way too easy, we really screwed these chumps over!"

                      How do you go bankrupt when the house averages most of the time $1.00 on the $1.00. When the jackpot gets up to $50 million the LC has already made $50 million  plus each state is responsible for their own  so tell me please since I live in the great Country on Texas USA    Will we be the 1st State to ho bankrupt .... Ah....I know not 

                      Since it's easy to beat I'd like that 4th and 5th number I keep missing after 60+ hrs of studying and programming EVERY week   Guess it's easy brain power.  Hmmmm. 

                       

                      Mushrooms huh?  Cow manure city = brains for shhhhhhh. It's happening it's happening.  Sry got off target here

                      Stay In The Vortex, you'll be happy you did ..... Random? Seriously? You want me to believe that?

                        Avatar
                        Wyomissing, PA
                        United States
                        Member #161050
                        November 15, 2014
                        301 Posts
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                        Posted: April 5, 2015, 4:20 pm - IP Logged

                        How do you go bankrupt when the house averages most of the time $1.00 on the $1.00. When the jackpot gets up to $50 million the LC has already made $50 million  plus each state is responsible for their own  so tell me please since I live in the great Country on Texas USA    Will we be the 1st State to ho bankrupt .... Ah....I know not 

                        Since it's easy to beat I'd like that 4th and 5th number I keep missing after 60+ hrs of studying and programming EVERY week   Guess it's easy brain power.  Hmmmm. 

                         

                        Mushrooms huh?  Cow manure city = brains for shhhhhhh. It's happening it's happening.  Sry got off target here

                        In many games, including PB and MM, the base jackpot often isn't fully funded until at least one or more rollovers occurred. Early jackpot hits can be very costly. A prime example is Monopoly Millionaires' Club, which had an early "Top Prize" hit on lackluster sales, resulting in a deep deficit, leading to the demise of the game.

                        Near impossible odds is no guarantee; early hits can occur in clumps. There's a spookiness to randomness. For example, late last year, PA Treasure Hunt (5/30) game with 1 in 142,506 odds had a draw occur about a week later with the exact same numbers (Nov-24 and Nov-30). Another example, which has been widely discussed here, is following winning numbers from one state to another - hits in one and not too long later it comes up again in a nearby state. One can find all sorts of weird patterns where one would expect none, but yet that's part of randomness.

                        Rambling on, but point is that long odds alone won't protect against early hits on a single game...

                        Casinos attack the problem by having many hundreds to thousands of machines. While some machines will pay out far in excess of their take, it's highly unlikely all that many of them will - the risk is limited by both odds and number of separate machines. Having hundreds of separate Powerball / Mega Millions games running at once isn't practical.

                        Thus, lottery number game developers resort to reduced overall payouts (~50% is typical verses 90%+ for casino games), extra difficult odds, and prize liability caps. Cash 4 Life & Lucky For Life are prime examples of games whose designers seemingly don't have much confidence in sales supporting payouts, so the caps are set very tight.

                        At the state level, there can potentially be losses even when the jackpot is fully funded, if relatively few players choose to add Megaplier / Powerplay and there are disproportionately large number of winners by such players. For example, a state sells 50,000 Powerball tickets with Powerplay added, but has a 2nd place hit in-state liability of $1 million (on a $2 million ticket winner).

                        PB and MM sales have been down. If there are many more early hits (say under 5 rollovers at current sales pace), it's conceivable one or both of the games being further modified (ie. reduced jackpot base; even more difficult odds; lower prize liability cap), and/or more likely some jurisdictions pulling out to promote other games.

                        Personally, I'd prefer a numbers game with better than 1 in a million odds of winning at least $2 million cash (~$1 million after taxes) over PB / MM. Right now, Powerball sort of offers this with odds of hitting 2nd place prize at about 1 in ~5 million costing $3 (with PP added). Instant games already offer the best chance of winning a $million+ at better than 1 in million odds at the $20+ price-point, plus better overall payouts.

                          Avatar

                          United States
                          Member #161539
                          December 3, 2014
                          328 Posts
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                          Posted: April 5, 2015, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

                          In many games, including PB and MM, the base jackpot often isn't fully funded until at least one or more rollovers occurred. Early jackpot hits can be very costly. A prime example is Monopoly Millionaires' Club, which had an early "Top Prize" hit on lackluster sales, resulting in a deep deficit, leading to the demise of the game.

                          Near impossible odds is no guarantee; early hits can occur in clumps. There's a spookiness to randomness. For example, late last year, PA Treasure Hunt (5/30) game with 1 in 142,506 odds had a draw occur about a week later with the exact same numbers (Nov-24 and Nov-30). Another example, which has been widely discussed here, is following winning numbers from one state to another - hits in one and not too long later it comes up again in a nearby state. One can find all sorts of weird patterns where one would expect none, but yet that's part of randomness.

                          Rambling on, but point is that long odds alone won't protect against early hits on a single game...

                          Casinos attack the problem by having many hundreds to thousands of machines. While some machines will pay out far in excess of their take, it's highly unlikely all that many of them will - the risk is limited by both odds and number of separate machines. Having hundreds of separate Powerball / Mega Millions games running at once isn't practical.

                          Thus, lottery number game developers resort to reduced overall payouts (~50% is typical verses 90%+ for casino games), extra difficult odds, and prize liability caps. Cash 4 Life & Lucky For Life are prime examples of games whose designers seemingly don't have much confidence in sales supporting payouts, so the caps are set very tight.

                          At the state level, there can potentially be losses even when the jackpot is fully funded, if relatively few players choose to add Megaplier / Powerplay and there are disproportionately large number of winners by such players. For example, a state sells 50,000 Powerball tickets with Powerplay added, but has a 2nd place hit in-state liability of $1 million (on a $2 million ticket winner).

                          PB and MM sales have been down. If there are many more early hits (say under 5 rollovers at current sales pace), it's conceivable one or both of the games being further modified (ie. reduced jackpot base; even more difficult odds; lower prize liability cap), and/or more likely some jurisdictions pulling out to promote other games.

                          Personally, I'd prefer a numbers game with better than 1 in a million odds of winning at least $2 million cash (~$1 million after taxes) over PB / MM. Right now, Powerball sort of offers this with odds of hitting 2nd place prize at about 1 in ~5 million costing $3 (with PP added). Instant games already offer the best chance of winning a $million+ at better than 1 in million odds at the $20+ price-point, plus better overall payouts.

                          Thanks Ron for bringing something to my attention ... about the huge odds difference between getting five numbers in the Mega Millions and Powerball games.

                          I'm always looking for the best odds to make it better for a possible hit. I admit I didn't zero in on the new odds for five numbers all that much since the new Mega Millions matrix began ... it's eye-opening so I am dropping MM and will spend those dollars on the PB until the changes go into effect this coming July.

                          We still have a few a few months left to try to work with the old PB matrix as LottoMetro posted ... unless the odds for winning with five numbers will stay the same, if they are having second thoughts.

                          Mega Millions

                          5 numbers = 1:18,492,204

                          Powerball

                          5 numbers = 1:5,153,633

                          The PB odds for five numbers at this time seem like the better place to be putting one's money ... if a person follows odds. The MM odds for five numbers are much worse than playing for a 6/49 game jackpot at 1:13,983,816.

                          ... just to add, the fact that MM only cost a dollar to play compared with PB at two dollars, may have some bearing on the odds, since a person can get twice as many tickets with MM ... I don't know.

                          CW

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19831 Posts
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                            Posted: April 5, 2015, 5:15 pm - IP Logged

                            People are tired of the same places winning fatigue. Kudos to those states that might drop powerball,  at least they don't have to worry about money flowing out of the state, to one that isn't worthy.

                            Before PB was in Ohio some of Indiana's largest PB jackpot winners were Ohioans. While the same can't be said about Big Game jackpot winners in Michigan, Ohio figured keeping 65% of the money Ohioans spent on those games in state was better than letting other states keep it.  That's not going to change regardless of their jackpots size.  As long as these games are offered in neighboring states, they will be available in Ohio.

                             

                             

                            b

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              pickone4me's avatar - 021414tvlies zpsa453b327.jpg
                              Wisconsin
                              United States
                              Member #104962
                              January 23, 2011
                              1075 Posts
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                              Posted: April 12, 2015, 8:56 am - IP Logged

                              Skeptical and wisconsin is a worthy state??

                               

                              since when ??

                              I never mentioned Wisconsin. Where are you seeing this stuff?  You must be imagining that I said that.  You should seek professional help,  you maybe hallucinating!

                              Trump 2016!