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Puerto Rico runs away with the Powerball Jackpot

Topic closed. 41 replies. Last post 2 years ago by MillionsWanted.

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LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
Happyland
United States
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September 1, 2013
1131 Posts
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Posted: April 19, 2015, 6:30 pm - IP Logged

Still early, Does MUSL have the ability to take from future runs/pots or do they just have to stick to the regular raises and hope their actuarial calculations play out for the rest of the year

They have a "switch" which, when activated, funnels a certain percentage of sales into a reserve pool to cover drawdowns and streaks like this. I think it's like 2%. If the reserve is empty then they will operate in the red only as long as necessary but states have to pay the difference when the jackpot gets hit.

I am not privy to MUSL interoffice watercooler talk, but I know they are sweating this recent run. The game has already suffered poor performance, as evidenced by La Fleur's study, and that is being compounded by frequent hits. It doesn't matter that over the long run it will "even out," because the only thing that clicks with state legislatures are the headlines right now, i.e. revenues and profits.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2017: 0% (0 tickets)
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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    United States
    Member #135804
    November 29, 2012
    332 Posts
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    Posted: April 19, 2015, 6:41 pm - IP Logged

    What happens to the reserve after the year ends?

     

    I recall a few years ago there were multiple hits within a few month period. Then we saw a long streak of $250m+ jackpots from Spring to Summer

      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
      United States
      Member #146344
      September 1, 2013
      1131 Posts
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      Posted: April 19, 2015, 6:42 pm - IP Logged

      What happens to the reserve after the year ends?

       

      I recall a few years ago there were multiple hits within a few month period. Then we saw a long streak of $250m+ jackpots from Spring to Summer

      That's a good question, and I don't know. I am pretty sure that they treat it like their normal prize account, i.e. revolving basis. They contribute to it and only dip in when funds elsewhere are exhausted. The only time the reserve would be emptied and closed is if the game was closed. It's not like they would keep the money though...it would be returned to the respective states according to their proportionate contribution of sales.

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2017: 0% (0 tickets)
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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        United States
        Member #135804
        November 29, 2012
        332 Posts
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        Posted: April 19, 2015, 6:48 pm - IP Logged

        Dec 2012-Jan 2013 is the period I'm referring to BTW

          weshar75's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
          Mcminnville, Oregon
          United States
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          December 13, 2003
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          Posted: April 19, 2015, 7:11 pm - IP Logged

          The puerto rico lottery has as many wins as oregon I think and we have not won powerball for awhile now.  So good luck to the winners or winner from puerto rico.  Enjoy your money and let me win my cool million.-weshar75

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            Wyomissing, PA
            United States
            Member #161050
            November 15, 2014
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            Posted: April 19, 2015, 7:34 pm - IP Logged

            Yes, Powerball is in the red. It has paid out nearly 40% of sales this year to jackpots alone.

            Wow, that's worse than I thought. Are any PB jurisdictions running in the red for Powerplay? PA had two $2 million Match-5 winners in the past 10 drawings on relatively little Powerplay sales.

            Being sales are way down, seems odd they're not running any promotions, such as the 10X multiplier one they've run in the past. While it's unlikely any jurisdiction would withdraw due to public outcry, one has to wonder how much profit they're willing to give up to keep the game, especially if the early jackpot hits continue unabated along with sagging sales.

            I suppose a savvy PB jurisdiction could use the matrix change / 2nd chance draw, if it happens, as an excuse to make a clean exit, claiming the new odds are too difficult / game not player friendly. That might actually work too. Doubt it will happen, but isn't out of the realm of possibility.

              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
              Happyland
              United States
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              Posted: April 19, 2015, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

              Wow, that's worse than I thought. Are any PB jurisdictions running in the red for Powerplay? PA had two $2 million Match-5 winners in the past 10 drawings on relatively little Powerplay sales.

              Being sales are way down, seems odd they're not running any promotions, such as the 10X multiplier one they've run in the past. While it's unlikely any jurisdiction would withdraw due to public outcry, one has to wonder how much profit they're willing to give up to keep the game, especially if the early jackpot hits continue unabated along with sagging sales.

              I suppose a savvy PB jurisdiction could use the matrix change / 2nd chance draw, if it happens, as an excuse to make a clean exit, claiming the new odds are too difficult / game not player friendly. That might actually work too. Doubt it will happen, but isn't out of the realm of possibility.

              I don't know individually but for all jurisdictions only about $15 million net in Powerplay.

              There are no promotions, because there is no money to fund them. LOL

              While it's unlikely any jurisdiction would withdraw due to public outcry

              Withdrawal is already being considered by at least one jurisdiction, this I know for fact. But I think the decision would be more political than public related.

              The matrix change with 2nd chance is happening, it is just a matter of when and to what degree. I have been hearing crickets on this though. As I said before, they were all gung-ho until MMC shook things up. But in regards to what you're saying, it does provide an exit opportunity. States are given the choice to adopt the new matrix or leave the game. Sometimes they can get away with "wait and see" stance but it tends to be "yes" or "no" unless performance really exceeds expectations.

              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

              2017: 0% (0 tickets)
              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                Bay Area - California
                United States
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                December 12, 2012
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                Posted: April 19, 2015, 9:23 pm - IP Logged

                Party

                 

                MUSL must be horsebacking Jack Daniels

                LOL.. P.R. has been extremely fortunate O.B- considering that they have a population of under 4 Million. For all we know they could have no more than 100,000 persons playing the lottery. This simply goes to show that ANYONE holding a valid ticket has the same chances as the next person. This jackpot could have been Won in Mcminnville/ Oregon* ( Yeah Weshar) or Wyoming for all we know. Its picking the correct numbers people- nothing more, nothing less.

                People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.

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                  Morrison, IL
                  United States
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                  May 13, 2004
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                  Posted: April 19, 2015, 9:42 pm - IP Logged

                  Powerball will soon go away due to its lack of profitability, and Mega Millions (in its current format) will be the only game left.  Powerball took too big a gamble with its existing setup.

                  ---

                    Original Bey's avatar - Lottery-022.jpg

                    Bahamas
                    Member #133462
                    September 30, 2012
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                    Posted: April 19, 2015, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

                    LOL.. P.R. has been extremely fortunate O.B- considering that they have a population of under 4 Million. For all we know they could have no more than 100,000 persons playing the lottery. This simply goes to show that ANYONE holding a valid ticket has the same chances as the next person. This jackpot could have been Won in Mcminnville/ Oregon* ( Yeah Weshar) or Wyoming for all we know. Its picking the correct numbers people- nothing more, nothing less.

                    I Agree!. I have it on good authority that Lady Luck is about to take a vacation and we're in for a long run.

                    "Everything works  ONCE!"


                      United States
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                      February 13, 2011
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                      Posted: April 20, 2015, 10:54 pm - IP Logged

                      Yep, we'll be saying goodbye to Powerball soon bc it will go bankrupt!

                      They need to implement a harder matrix now because as you can see it's far too easy to win.

                        MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

                        Norway
                        Member #9517
                        December 10, 2004
                        1280 Posts
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                        Posted: April 21, 2015, 6:02 am - IP Logged

                        Just trying to imagine a bunch of Puerto Ricans running away with a jackpot

                        Thinking of...