A discussion of the math, probability and theories of the the LotteryPrev Topic Next Topic

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tdempsey

Atlanta, GA
United States
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January 24, 2004
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Feb 24, 2015, 12:48 am

Hi!

I have many filters I have developed concerning the lottery and wanted to start a discussion on my math and probability theories with others who are interested. I have been a computer programmer for over 20 years and have worked on the lottery for other 12 years.

Of course, many of these concepts are in the "books" but I also have other concepts I want to share and explore. Discussing the book theories would be helpful.

Let me know if others are interested. I am guessing this is the best topic section to bring up this idea and I look forward to sharing my 12+ years investigating these principles and well as sharing with others.

No extensive knowledge of statistics will be required.

BTW - my A01 (axiom 01) involves the sum of the draws. (Draws add up to a sum - rule #1.) Sums follow a pattern and make a distribution curve.

I will also be including charts for examples.

EG: Sample Georgia Fantasy 5

Cheers!

Tom Dempsey
tdempsey

Atlanta, GA
United States
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January 24, 2004
51 Posts
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Feb 24, 2015, 12:51 am

Question #1 - what is the proper way to post an in-line image in my post? I used the message form with the Windows path.
dainbramaged

United States
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January 26, 2015
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Feb 25, 2015, 8:21 am

Hello,

I would be willing to engage in a discussion with you. I have tried to make use of sums before but didn't have any luck with it. I never could formulate any kind of strategy for it so I was akin to blind man with a bb gun trying to shoot a bullet that was traveling at light speed. But I guess that is the way the lottery is designed, eh?
dr san

bgonÃ§alves
Brasil
Member #92,558
June 9, 2010
4,157 Posts
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Feb 25, 2015, 9:24 am

Hello, td, the filters have a problem, they can give conflicts need
Find basic patterns and then rotating filter
RL-RANDOMLOGIC

United States
Member #59,352
March 13, 2008
5,626 Posts
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Feb 26, 2015, 3:18 pm

tdempsey

To add a picture to your post you have a couple options. You can upgrade your LP account and

then upload you pics or use something like tinypic. Link->http://tinypic.com/ After uploading your

image Tinypic will provide a link that you can copy and paste into the post using the tools Todd has

provided.

As for the topic content I think just about everything one could imagine has been posted here at

one time or another. Lots of good ideas that can help but none go so far as putting a winning ticket

in your hand. Filters are the killers of jackpots. Not that filters are bad it's just that if often takes too

many to reduce to a playable amount of lines. Each filter used increases the odds. Lets say that you

can reduce the matrix with 10 filters set to single values. If each filter has five options then the odds

of hitting them all are 1 in 5x5x5x5x5x5x5x5x5x5=9,765,625. This value can often exceed the total

number of lines within the matrix because not all filter values have the same reduction effect.

simple odd/even example

In a 5-39 matrix around 70% of the sets in the matrix will have either 2 or 3 odd numbers. Sets with

0-1-4-5 odd numbers make up the remaining 30%. If you set a odd number filter to 1 then it will have

a big effect on the reduction where setting 2 or 3 will have far less.

The worth of a filtering system is really not how well it reduces but how easy it is to predict. We can have

great reduction filters but if we can't predict them then they have no real value. I am a fellow programmer

and have been writing lottery software for close to 25 years now. Predicting the JP is a pipe dream but

the lower prizes are anyone's game.

Post away, always interested to see what others are doing.

RL

....
dainbramaged

United States
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January 26, 2015
8 Posts
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Feb 27, 2015, 2:14 am

Hi RL

I agree with you about the filters. My observation has been that whenever I notice a "pattern" its already run its course and it never shows again. The only pattern is that there is no pattern so how do you base a filter on that? I try to build my guesses around odds and probability. i.e. sequential numbers. For MM, 12345 and the like only compose 71 combinations out of the 275 million possibilities. Thats a very small percentage so i don't play them. It doesn't mean it cant or wont happen. But at the end of the day, no matter how you slice it, the odds are the odds and you can't change them. However, I'm all for exploring the possibility of beating them.
RL-RANDOMLOGIC

United States
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March 13, 2008
5,626 Posts
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Feb 27, 2015, 8:41 am

dainbramaged

The best way to calculate filter ranges is to use the population and distribution taken from the entire matrix.

Most patterns are after the fact illusions and as such it's very hard to tell the difference until after the draw

has come and gone. There are many tips and tricks that can help put us closer but chance is going to play

a role no matter how much effort we put into our selections. Too much analysis, leads to paralysis. Maybe

the best trick is knowing when to stop analyzing and make our best guess. I have said many times that I

play the lottery like searching for a lost treasure. I get out all my maps, charts etc.. and decide where I will

dig next. If someone gets there before me it's no problem, the treasure is always is replaced by another.

RL

....
SergeM

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123,692
February 27, 2012
4,035 Posts
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Feb 27, 2015, 1:02 pm

Quote: Originally posted by dainbramaged on Feb 25, 2015
Hello,

I would be willing to engage in a discussion with you. I have tried to make use of sums before but didn't have any luck with it. I never could formulate any kind of strategy for it so I was akin to blind man with a bb gun trying to shoot a bullet that was traveling at light speed. But I guess that is the way the lottery is designed, eh?

Use average instead of sums!
riscknight

Athens
Greece
Member #133,226
September 24, 2012
209 Posts
Offline

Mar 1, 2015, 4:54 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on Feb 27, 2015
dainbramaged

The best way to calculate filter ranges is to use the population and distribution taken from the entire matrix.

Most patterns are after the fact illusions and as such it's very hard to tell the difference until after the draw

has come and gone. There are many tips and tricks that can help put us closer but chance is going to play

a role no matter how much effort we put into our selections. Too much analysis, leads to paralysis. Maybe

the best trick is knowing when to stop analyzing and make our best guess. I have said many times that I

play the lottery like searching for a lost treasure. I get out all my maps, charts etc.. and decide where I will

dig next. If someone gets there before me it's no problem, the treasure is always is replaced by another.

RL

I have said many times that I

play the lottery like searching for a lost treasure. I get out all my maps, charts etc.. and decide where I will

dig next. If someone gets there before me it's no problem, the treasure is always is replaced by another.

RL

You'll find your own treasure; I am quite sure. Just keep *trying* and 'searching'.

I'd rather ask for forgiveness instead of permission

6/49 dis(assembly)
dainbramaged

United States
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January 26, 2015
8 Posts
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Mar 1, 2015, 10:35 pm

RL...that was well said, great analogy. I have actually put a lot of effort into coding my selection scripts to keep me away from where the holes have already been dug. My observation is that lightning rarely strikes twice in the lottery. Last weeks winner is next weeks loser from now on.
dauzzo101

norman
United States
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March 4, 2015
6 Posts
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Mar 12, 2015, 5:18 am

based on your research and fact findings to win a jackpot, is it better to play 16 mega millions tickets each drawing or play 9 powerball tickets each drawing?

best regards...
dr san

bgonÃ§alves
Brasil
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June 9, 2010
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Mar 12, 2015, 10:10 am

http://www.di.ubi.pt...Monte Carlo.pdf

http://www.business-...forum.asp?t=189

http://pt.wikipedia...._de_Monte_Carlo

http://www.anthony-v...om/vba/vba5.htm

http://www.vbforums....e-Carlo-method)
Murgatroyd

Arizona
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March 24, 2015
308 Posts
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Mar 26, 2015, 8:33 pm

Quote: Originally posted by dauzzo101 on Mar 12, 2015
based on your research and fact findings to win a jackpot, is it better to play 16 mega millions tickets each drawing or play 9 powerball tickets each drawing?

best regards...

If you're only concerned with the jackpot and don't care about lesser prizes, you're about 20% more likely to win with 16 mega millions tickets. The probability for both options is still worse than 1 in 15 million.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Apr 20, 2015, 1:48 am

Quote: Originally posted by dauzzo101 on Mar 12, 2015
based on your research and fact findings to win a jackpot, is it better to play 16 mega millions tickets each drawing or play 9 powerball tickets each drawing?

best regards...

With 15 mega millions ticket you can play all 15 megaballs guaranteeing at least $1 or 7% of your money back.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
SergeM

Economy class
Belgium
Member #123,692
February 27, 2012
4,035 Posts
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Apr 20, 2015, 1:48 pm

The average probability is that you lose money. The bank has the advantage. If you win, you pay taxes or not on the payout, depending of where you live. Consider that your money is taxed money and when you play it is taxed again, finally your eventual wins are also taxed. When you buy something with the net wins, the price again contains taxes. Are you a tax accountant?