Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 2, 2016, 12:53 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

If You Live Long Enough ... Good Chance You Will Win !

Topic closed. 25 replies. Last post 1 year ago by savagegoose.

Page 2 of 2
52
PrintE-mailLink
RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19813 Posts
Offline
Posted: June 14, 2015, 9:08 am - IP Logged

Hi RJOH ... I hope you and others are not taking these posts too serious ... "odds are odds" and 'years are years" and if ever the two should meet, it still means most people will die broke in "lottery terms".

There will be a few "lucky ducks" ... there always are, but most will be lucky to win only some "chump change" in their lifetime !!!

Now as to the 6/49 game ... what you say is true, except for PA ... the PA 6/49 game is the easiest 6/49 game to hit of all the various 6/49 games. There's possibly a reason for that, I'll go into detail later.

I've watched this change over the last three years ... three years ago the average jackpot was around $4 million + before being hit ... then it dropped to $2 million before being hit ... since late 2014 and all of 2015 so far ... the jackpot hardly gets above $1 million, it does so only occasionally. It's averaging a hit every 1 to 1 1/2 months.

There hasn't been a $2 million jackpot since sometime in 2014 ... maybe it's been since 2013.

My theories only ... more people dropping MM and PB for a game with lower odds ... who can say and also 6/49 tickets cost $2 but a player get three chances to win the jackpot, so there is more coverage.

It's all very interesting ... the Lottery Gods have their fun with us poor lottery mortals !

...

Ohio has a 6/49 game of which I have match 5/6 twice and even posted the combination I matched 5of6 on the prediction board three years ago.  After which I thought was only a matter of time before I matched 6of6 for a jackpot but haven't come that close since.  It even roll to $77M before it was hit before its last hit.  So I know about getting lucky. 

Ohio Classic Lotto(6/49) starts at $1M and roll $100K after each drawing if there's no winner so it takes a while with its 50% cash payout to  roll up to an amount that makes it more attractive than MM.  Now that it's almost $6M, I'm playing it again along with MM.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
    NY State
    United States
    Member #92609
    June 10, 2010
    3685 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: June 14, 2015, 9:12 am - IP Logged

    When it comes to winning a lottery jackpot, I always try to keep my optimism in check with a healthy dose of reality.  I appreciate how long the odds/years truly are so I don't go overboard by spending a lot of money on  tickets.  Anyone who spends a lot of money playing the lottery will quickly learn that even though they may have spent a thousand dollars in one particular drawing, they only enhanced their chances of winning by a very insignificant amount.  If you spent a hundred thousand dollars in one PB or MM drawing, it still wouldn't be enough.  And if you think about that for a second, you'd soon realize that anybody who could actually afford to do that probably is in a financial position where they really don't need to play the lottery. (Not that anybody "needs" to play the lottery)   

    The only fact anyone can be sure of with regard to playing the lottery is that you have absolutely no chance of winning if you don't play. ("Ya gotta be in it to win it")  So I have fun dreaming and playing, but I keep it in the proper perspective at all times.  G5

    About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

      Avatar

      United States
      Member #132100
      August 26, 2012
      1076 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: June 14, 2015, 3:42 pm - IP Logged

      It seems to me that no matter how many drawings and years go by, when you buy 1 number (1 line) for each drawing your chances will always be 1 in 13,983,816 if as you said those are the odds of winning.

      If you do buy half of 13,983,816 for anyone particular drawing then for that particular drawing you might have a 50% of winning.

      After all, every-time that you buy 1 line for that kind of game your chances are 1 in 13,983,816 if you are right about those odds for that game.

      That would probably be true even for the pick 3 game, you might "predict" 1 straight pick 3 number each time that there is a drawing and never get it right, no matter how many years go by.

      But as I don't know anything much about stats I might be wrong, but I don't think so, one thing is stats and the other is reality.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19813 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: June 14, 2015, 10:03 pm - IP Logged

        Jadelottery produced a graph several years back that showed while combinations are random, numbers in those combinations act in predictable patterns.  He tracked numbers in combinations of particular lotteries for a long period of time and patterns of number behavior appeared.  For example when particular numbers were drawn depending on the numbers in the previous drawing the number in the next drawing would be in a group of 10-15 numbers 90% of the time.

        While this still produced a rather large field 3-5K of possible combinations, it was a lot smaller than the usual field of 10-18M.

        When you are limited to 10-15 lines per drawing, it's nice to know you were in the ball park with the winner even if you didn't win.

        Jade is producing some new graphs in the math forum and I'm not the only one taking notice of them.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
          adelaide sa
          Australia
          Member #37136
          April 11, 2006
          3300 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: June 15, 2015, 6:38 am - IP Logged

          thats why i try to stick to my " buy small , buy often " regime

          2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

          keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

            Avatar

            United States
            Member #161539
            December 3, 2014
            328 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: June 15, 2015, 7:13 am - IP Logged

            thats why i try to stick to my " buy small , buy often " regime

            SG ... I'd like a little more detail on what you just posted. I think I understand what you are saying ... so "buy small" means one or two tickets for a game ... or one or two tickets for several games?

            So if you are "buying small" for several games then that could still be a substantial amount of money.

            When you say "buy often" ... OK so you are playing one game or several games for every drawing ... could also add up ... but only in a small way compared to the lottery spending of some players.

            ...

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19813 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: June 15, 2015, 8:00 am - IP Logged

              It seems to me that no matter how many drawings and years go by, when you buy 1 number (1 line) for each drawing your chances will always be 1 in 13,983,816 if as you said those are the odds of winning.

              If you do buy half of 13,983,816 for anyone particular drawing then for that particular drawing you might have a 50% of winning.

              After all, every-time that you buy 1 line for that kind of game your chances are 1 in 13,983,816 if you are right about those odds for that game.

              That would probably be true even for the pick 3 game, you might "predict" 1 straight pick 3 number each time that there is a drawing and never get it right, no matter how many years go by.

              But as I don't know anything much about stats I might be wrong, but I don't think so, one thing is stats and the other is reality.

              That's only true if you're playing a winning field of 13,986,816.  The actual winning field most times is a lot less, for example the winning field of 13,986,816 include combinations where the lowest number is higher than 40 and combinations where the highest number is less than 10. 

              How many times have such combinations won?  By simple covering combinations within the range of combinations that hit 95% of the time you probably will reduced you winning field to less than  7M  combinations. You have doubled your chance or winning with a single ticket.  Since you can't cover every combinations why worry about the ones that almost never come up?

              Unlike jackpot games, in pick3 games all one thousand possible combinations are likely to show up and most times do.  Besides if you're boxing your combinations you're dealing with less than 300 possible outcomes and a lot less reward.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                Raven62's avatar - binary
                New Jersey
                United States
                Member #17843
                June 28, 2005
                49609 Posts
                Online
                Posted: June 15, 2015, 8:10 am - IP Logged

                As luck would have it: No matter how long you play: Your numbers will be drawn the one time you don't buy a ticket...

                A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                  alsports2000's avatar - 23606770150900
                  Pharr, Texas
                  United States
                  Member #107
                  August 23, 2001
                  439 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: June 15, 2015, 8:05 pm - IP Logged

                  When it comes to possessing the winning numbers on a single ticket, I will reply with other famous Dirty Harry Callahan
                  "Go ahead,,,,, Make my day" !!!!!

                  Or you could of said: Do feel lucky punk? well do you? Go ahead make my day....I Agree!

                    Avatar

                    United States
                    Member #161539
                    December 3, 2014
                    328 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: June 16, 2015, 8:59 am - IP Logged

                    As luck would have it: No matter how long you play: Your numbers will be drawn the one time you don't buy a ticket...

                    That would be a bummer ... the only thing that I can think of that would be worse ... actually laying in your coffin with an active lottery ticket with three draws still remaining and your numbers finally roll out.

                    It's not too bad if your numbers do come out and you don't have a ticket ... but still having a few plays left on a ticket ... well, it's just not a good way to go !!!

                    I just bought 13 advance Match 6 (6/49) drawings till the end of July ... I have to make it to August !

                    ...

                      savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
                      adelaide sa
                      Australia
                      Member #37136
                      April 11, 2006
                      3300 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: June 16, 2015, 7:38 pm - IP Logged

                      well i started buying the least amount i could in every draw i can. they messed that up out here by increasing the number of lines that are the min entry  for most of the games.  I had a blog entry here i used to update every time they changed the goal posts.  ill try n find the link.

                      basically if i could by 1 line in a game, for $1, id buy that. im running 3 syndicates now. and am a  member of 5. all pretty much ran on the smape plan, and yea it does add up.

                       

                      this is the blog

                      http://www.lotterypost.com/blogentry/24740/viewcomments

                      and that entry fee is ther cost of ea syndicate  or pool,  4 of the 5 are pools are australian. but the entry fee is shared between pool members.

                       

                      2 of them i go halves in, 1 , 1/3 and 1 , 1/5th  the last one is American pool that i go halves in. playing every draw in powerball and mega millions.


                      so about $22 a weel for me just on the aussie games, and  US$22.50  for the american for 10 weeks

                      2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

                      keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297