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Discovery - New PA Raffle Game Change

Topic closed. 67 replies. Last post 1 year ago by GiveFive.

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Wyomissing, PA
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Posted: October 15, 2015, 2:00 pm - IP Logged

Sales are worse than I would have guessed. Maybe the large surge near the end won't happen. But assuming there is a typical surge in the last 5 or so days, 350,000 is possible. I'd be surprised if sales hit high 300s, let alone break into the 400s. Not seeing that happening.

End of October seems a lousy time to end the raffle. However, if winter holiday instant tickets are released in late October, that could boost raffle sales somewhat. I don't foresee the PA Lottery delaying the raffle drawing. Some states have done that with little success other than upsetting players, and likely hurting their lottery sales in the longrun.

    GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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    Posted: October 15, 2015, 4:07 pm - IP Logged

    Sales are worse than I would have guessed. Maybe the large surge near the end won't happen. But assuming there is a typical surge in the last 5 or so days, 350,000 is possible. I'd be surprised if sales hit high 300s, let alone break into the 400s. Not seeing that happening.

    End of October seems a lousy time to end the raffle. However, if winter holiday instant tickets are released in late October, that could boost raffle sales somewhat. I don't foresee the PA Lottery delaying the raffle drawing. Some states have done that with little success other than upsetting players, and likely hurting their lottery sales in the longrun.

    My guess is that there will be a surge in ticket sales during the last week they're on sale. I mean it always happens.... never seen a raffle drawing without a surge.

    IMHO, there's multiple reasons why there's a surge.  I've seen a late surge in sales of Connecticut's SuperDraw raffle, and because the phenomenon isn't unique to PA, I'm leaning toward there being a surge for this current raffle.

    So what's the number one reason for a surge?? 

    I really don't know what the number one cause is, but my guess is that 20 bucks a pop for a ticket is a tough nut for many players.  Because of that, I think players tend to hold off until the last minute, but will pony up the twenty bucks when it's close to the drawing for fear of missing it. 

    It'd be a good research project for somebody working on a masters or PhD.  Hire a bunch of college students to stand around in many convenience stores one week before the drawing, and when they see somebody buying a raffle ticket, ask the buyer why they bought their ticket(s) this particular week as opposed to buying earlier.

    Hey! Wait a minute! Maybe I'll do it!  I haven't got anything better to do!!  NOT!!  G5

    About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

      GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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      Posted: October 15, 2015, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

      I'd like to ask a question regarding "Overall paybacK." I guess I'm looking more for clarification than anything else. 

      In his post a day or so ago, Ron5995 wrote;

      "Another way to decide whether to go heavy on the raffle, is to view it this way. At 400,000 tickets sold, the overall payback percentage of ~64% is still somewhat worse than $20 instant games, which often have 70-75% payback, available right now, everyday. However, if one has reasonable confidence in ticket sales being far below 400,000, then it's possible the raffle will have a payback percentage, possibly upwards of 85%, better than anything else PA offers. However, to reiterate, at well over 400,000+ tickets sold, $20 instants have better overall payback. Something to keep in mind, if going all in on the raffle."

      The concept of overall payback is new to me, it's something I haven't ever given any thought to at all.  I'm curious for more details on how it's calculated, and how you learned of it.

      Does 70-75% payback mean that 70 to75% of the tickets in an entire pack of scratch offs will win a prize?  How did you arrive at/calculate ~64% as the overall payback percentage if 400,000 raffle tickets are sold?  Thanks again.  Your post was excellent.  G5

      About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

        TheGameGrl's avatar - character catafly.jpg
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        Posted: October 16, 2015, 8:38 am - IP Logged

        As of this AM, Raffle # 159,900 series sold. SO that gives you an idea of the daily progress in sales for anyone keeping tabs. 

        We have 15 days left....Curious how 300,000 plus will sell out in that time frame....

        ~~Is it true, Is it kind,Is it necessary. ~~~

         Thanks be to the giving numbers: 1621,912,119 02014

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          Wyomissing, PA
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          Posted: October 16, 2015, 12:46 pm - IP Logged

          Overall payback is the percentage of the sales proceeds paid out in prizes. Alone, it can be deceiving depending on the payout table (ie. lots of large prizes with little in between), but should always be kept in mind when choosing games to play and sizes of wagers.

          Example, PA Pick 3 odds is 1 in 1000 and pays 500 to 1. On average, for every $1000 taken in, $500 is paid out.  $500/$1000 = 50% overall payout.

          Most lottery numbers games, including Mega Millions and Powerball, are around 50% give or take several percent. Instant games, including even lowly $1 ones, are typically 60%-80%.

          Casino games are typically around 85%-95%. Table game Blackjack (21) is often among the highest payout games, and can exceed 100% overall payback for those playing at a table using a smallish number of hand-shuffled decks (verses auto-shufflers constantly shuffling back in past played cards) along with counting cards (# of 2-10, face, high, low, etc that have come out so far).

          PA Lottery will pay out $5,089,200 total in prizes (6,000 winning tickets) regardless of number of raffle tickets sold. Thus the overall payout percentage is extremely variable (most lottery games are fixed to slightly variable). Less sales, better it is for players.

          All 500,000 Raffle tickets X $20 = $10,000,000 with  $5,089,200 paid out. $5,089,200 prizes / $10,000,000 revenue = 50.892% overall payout with the state netting 49.108% ($10,000,000 - $5,089,200).

          400,000 Raffle tickets X $20 = $8,000,000 with $5,089,200 paid out. $5,089,200 prizes / $8,000,000 revenue = 63.615% overall payout with the state netting 36.385% ($8,000,000 - $5,089,200).

          300,000 Raffle tickets X $20 = $6,000,000 with $5,089,200 paid out. $5,089,200 prizes / $6,000,000 revenue = 84.82% overall payout with the state netting 15.18% ($6,000,000 - $5,089,200).

          I mentioned overall payout can be deceiving, because in some games there are some big prizes and lots of small ones with few in between. Payout percentage takes into account all prizes, including those that may be near impossible to win. Same is true with lottery games. So one shouldn't rely on payout percentage alone, but use it as another measure of whether a game is worthwhile or not...

          For example, if given a choice between playing $200 (10 tickets) in a sold out PA Lottery raffle or same $200 on 10 $20 instant games, the instants are the better deal in both regards to odds of hitting anything and overall payout.

          However, if one believes the PA Lottery raffle is only going to sell 300,000 tickets, then the raffle is likely the better way to go in regards to overall payout ~85% verses ~75% or so for $20 instants.

          Regardless of whether all 500,000 raffle tickets sell or only 300,000, $20 instants still have better odds of winning something at 1 in ~3 verses 1 in 50, likely at best, for the raffle. Overall payout percentage takes into account all prizes, including the large ones. Since the majority of the raffle payout is the top 8 prizes, the higher overall payout only helps slightly unless one plays a lot of tickets - say 500 or even 1,000+ raffle tickets. At that level of play, the improved overall payout will likely make a noticeable difference. For a lower wager player who buys say 10 raffle tickets, they will likely hit nothing whether 100,000 tickets are sold or all 500,000. However, the higher payout percentage could be the difference in some instances, so shouldn't be discounted entirely. Rambling on, and hope this make sense.

          Some casinos in Vegas can advertise 100%+ payback on some machines and still make money. If the average player bets less than max (payout tables are often skewed with lower wagers having less proportionally lower payout) and/or doesn't play long enough to hit the near impossible to win top prizes, they'll likely never win back all of their money; likely lose some.

          In short, overall payout percentage is another criterion to use for choosing games to play along the amounts to wager. Hope this helps :)

            GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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            Posted: October 16, 2015, 5:08 pm - IP Logged

            Overall payback is the percentage of the sales proceeds paid out in prizes. Alone, it can be deceiving depending on the payout table (ie. lots of large prizes with little in between), but should always be kept in mind when choosing games to play and sizes of wagers.

            Example, PA Pick 3 odds is 1 in 1000 and pays 500 to 1. On average, for every $1000 taken in, $500 is paid out.  $500/$1000 = 50% overall payout.

            Most lottery numbers games, including Mega Millions and Powerball, are around 50% give or take several percent. Instant games, including even lowly $1 ones, are typically 60%-80%.

            Casino games are typically around 85%-95%. Table game Blackjack (21) is often among the highest payout games, and can exceed 100% overall payback for those playing at a table using a smallish number of hand-shuffled decks (verses auto-shufflers constantly shuffling back in past played cards) along with counting cards (# of 2-10, face, high, low, etc that have come out so far).

            PA Lottery will pay out $5,089,200 total in prizes (6,000 winning tickets) regardless of number of raffle tickets sold. Thus the overall payout percentage is extremely variable (most lottery games are fixed to slightly variable). Less sales, better it is for players.

            All 500,000 Raffle tickets X $20 = $10,000,000 with  $5,089,200 paid out. $5,089,200 prizes / $10,000,000 revenue = 50.892% overall payout with the state netting 49.108% ($10,000,000 - $5,089,200).

            400,000 Raffle tickets X $20 = $8,000,000 with $5,089,200 paid out. $5,089,200 prizes / $8,000,000 revenue = 63.615% overall payout with the state netting 36.385% ($8,000,000 - $5,089,200).

            300,000 Raffle tickets X $20 = $6,000,000 with $5,089,200 paid out. $5,089,200 prizes / $6,000,000 revenue = 84.82% overall payout with the state netting 15.18% ($6,000,000 - $5,089,200).

            I mentioned overall payout can be deceiving, because in some games there are some big prizes and lots of small ones with few in between. Payout percentage takes into account all prizes, including those that may be near impossible to win. Same is true with lottery games. So one shouldn't rely on payout percentage alone, but use it as another measure of whether a game is worthwhile or not...

            For example, if given a choice between playing $200 (10 tickets) in a sold out PA Lottery raffle or same $200 on 10 $20 instant games, the instants are the better deal in both regards to odds of hitting anything and overall payout.

            However, if one believes the PA Lottery raffle is only going to sell 300,000 tickets, then the raffle is likely the better way to go in regards to overall payout ~85% verses ~75% or so for $20 instants.

            Regardless of whether all 500,000 raffle tickets sell or only 300,000, $20 instants still have better odds of winning something at 1 in ~3 verses 1 in 50, likely at best, for the raffle. Overall payout percentage takes into account all prizes, including the large ones. Since the majority of the raffle payout is the top 8 prizes, the higher overall payout only helps slightly unless one plays a lot of tickets - say 500 or even 1,000+ raffle tickets. At that level of play, the improved overall payout will likely make a noticeable difference. For a lower wager player who buys say 10 raffle tickets, they will likely hit nothing whether 100,000 tickets are sold or all 500,000. However, the higher payout percentage could be the difference in some instances, so shouldn't be discounted entirely. Rambling on, and hope this make sense.

            Some casinos in Vegas can advertise 100%+ payback on some machines and still make money. If the average player bets less than max (payout tables are often skewed with lower wagers having less proportionally lower payout) and/or doesn't play long enough to hit the near impossible to win top prizes, they'll likely never win back all of their money; likely lose some.

            In short, overall payout percentage is another criterion to use for choosing games to play along the amounts to wager. Hope this helps :)

            Yes it did help, and thank you very much.  But I do have to admit that I had to go back and re-read it a few times before it sank in!  Not the sharpest knife in the drawer!

            Well, here's hoping that just 300,00 raffle tickets are sold for this current raffle.  That'd make the overall odds 1 in 75,000 which is the best odds I've ever seen to win one million dollars.  That'd also be ~85% payout which is good for raffle players vs players who buy a $20 scratch off ticket. Scratch offs are out for me, I'm an out of state player, and I rarely if ever buy scratch offs here at home in New York. While comparing the overall payback percentage between the two is nice info for me to know, it doesn't really have much applicability to me. 

            Unfortunately for me, I fall into the lower wager player category because I'm going to buy at least 6 tickets, with an outside shot at buying 10.  However many I do end up buying, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that I win something this go-round!  G5 

            About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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              Posted: October 19, 2015, 8:23 am - IP Logged

              Shy of 181000. 12 days left.

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                Posted: October 19, 2015, 9:56 am - IP Logged

                Sales increased slightly,  from 5k to 7k per day based on the numbers given here .36 percent of tickets sold.

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                  Pa
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                  Posted: October 21, 2015, 9:38 am - IP Logged

                  Averaging about 6.5 k per day this week.

                    GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                    Posted: October 21, 2015, 6:12 pm - IP Logged

                    I bought some tickets at about noon today.  196049 is the highest number I received.

                    About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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                      Posted: October 23, 2015, 7:49 am - IP Logged

                      Sales up slightly,  7.7k per day.  Just shy of 210k sold as of this am.

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                        Posted: October 23, 2015, 3:01 pm - IP Logged

                        Bought one yesterday mid-morning and it was mid 202s. Ramping up a little, but at this rate, a sell out is not happening.

                        Ending Oct-23: 9K... 220,000 (maybe a little high, but easier to start on a simple round number)

                        Ending Oct-24: 10K ... 230,000

                        Ending Oct-25: 10K ... 240,000

                        Ending Oct-26: 12K ... 252,000 (new holiday tickets should be widely available early this upcoming week)

                        Ending Oct-27: 18K ... 270,000

                        Ending Oct-28: 30K ... 300,000

                        Ending Oct-29: 35K ... 335,000

                        Ending Oct-30: 40K ... 375,000

                        Ending Oct-31: 40K ... 415,000 (sales close early around 8 pm; Halloween)

                        Rough, off the cuff estimates based on my memory of past years. The above is an optimistic scenario. Wouldn't surprise me if the peak days are a bit lower. Low to mid 300s seems very likely, though getting much into the 400s, as I wrote the other day, will be challenging. A sell out looks near impossible at the current sales rate, and factoring in the raffle didn't sell out last time.

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                          Pa
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                          Posted: October 23, 2015, 3:41 pm - IP Logged

                          I still like my guess of 325k,  that averages to around 14k per day.   I think the sales will be down and not have the large usual uptick in sales because  of the out of state people are not looking to pick up their tickets because if the lottery didn't change their drawing dates,  the out of state people would be looking to buy in November for what would have been the New years week drawing. Less than 8 days left. Today was payday for a lot of people,  I would be interested in see if the uptick in sales lasts throughout the weekend or if today was a temporary bump.

                            GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                            Posted: October 23, 2015, 6:52 pm - IP Logged

                            I still like my guess of 325k,  that averages to around 14k per day.   I think the sales will be down and not have the large usual uptick in sales because  of the out of state people are not looking to pick up their tickets because if the lottery didn't change their drawing dates,  the out of state people would be looking to buy in November for what would have been the New years week drawing. Less than 8 days left. Today was payday for a lot of people,  I would be interested in see if the uptick in sales lasts throughout the weekend or if today was a temporary bump.

                            I'm an out of state buyer, just bought my tickets on Wednesday. 

                            Had it not been for an LP member mentioning in a post in the Pick5 forum that the schedule had been changed to 4 raffles per year, I would have been expecting to buy tickets in Nov/Dec for the New Years raffle. I'm sure I'm not alone.  My guess is that there are players in every state that borders PA that don't know about the Halloween Raffle.  Very plausible that this could be a big reason why ticket sales just haven't materialized.  G5

                            About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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                              Wyomissing, PA
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                              Posted: October 24, 2015, 10:02 am - IP Logged

                              I was clicking around the PA Lottery website trying to figure out where the Raffle countdown is located. They say it's in their app. But no dice, at least on Android. Anyways, while browsing, I saw mention of #millionaireraffle, so I searched that on Twitter, and saw some insightful comments.

                              Saw a tweet from someone who has frequently played and yet never won anything. Nothing earth shattering there, but a common complaint from regular raffle players. Seemingly, many have cutback / given up on the raffle. That may take some of the wind out of the end of sales rush.

                              A more interesting tweet, just posted a few days ago, mentioned the PA budget still not being passed, and that winners wouldn't be paid. Far as I'm aware, PA Lottery is still paying out all winners, but there are some out there conflating the issues of the Illinois budget impasse with Pennsylvania's.

                              According to PA.gov Budget FAQ page, PA Lottery can continue to pay winners during the budget impasse. However, what a FAQ page says and reality can be two different things; many don't trust government.

                              In short, the IL budget impasse may be affecting raffle sales too. Many wouldn't consider that aspect (I certainly didn't until I saw that tweet), but some players are in their decision making - steering clear of big jackpot games / all lottery games until the budget is passed.