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Discovery - New PA Raffle Game Change

Topic closed. 67 replies. Last post 1 year ago by GiveFive.

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RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
NY
United States
Member #121961
January 21, 2012
3159 Posts
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Posted: October 25, 2015, 1:00 am - IP Logged

Got 3, their in the 225xxx range.

    GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
    NY State
    United States
    Member #92609
    June 10, 2010
    3823 Posts
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    Posted: October 25, 2015, 8:53 am - IP Logged

    Got 3, their in the 225xxx range.

    You took that ride across I-84 too, huh 'Stang? 

    I gotta say that the Fall foliage was spectacular on Wednesday when I went.  I got off 84 in Matamoras and bought mine in the Price Chopper right there by the exit off 84.  Was definitely worth the trip.  G5

    About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

      RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
      NY
      United States
      Member #121961
      January 21, 2012
      3159 Posts
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      Posted: October 25, 2015, 10:55 am - IP Logged

      You took that ride across I-84 too, huh 'Stang? 

      I gotta say that the Fall foliage was spectacular on Wednesday when I went.  I got off 84 in Matamoras and bought mine in the Price Chopper right there by the exit off 84.  Was definitely worth the trip.  G5

      Yes, had to go to Binghamton so i did a big loop around. I also got mine from that PC. I always play scratchoffs there when i'm in the area.

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        Wyomissing, PA
        United States
        Member #161050
        November 15, 2014
        301 Posts
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        Posted: October 25, 2015, 11:43 am - IP Logged

        Only ~6 days remaining, and still no ticket countdown on the website (they say it's shown in the app, but not seeing on Android). I understand why PA Lottery is downplaying the countdown due to lousy sales. However, at this point, a widely publicized countdown can't hurt, and would likely will help drive some sales.

        For those seeking to game this, don't bet the ranch, because it's still likely around 400,000 tickets will sell. Still an improvement on the odds, but not significantly. Keep in mind, typical PA Lottery $20 instant tickets have better odds of winning something at 1 in ~3 and overall payout around 70%-75% verses, assuming 400,000 tickets sell, 1 in ~67 and 64%, respectively, for the raffle. In short, 400,000 improves the odds, but still far from a sure thing.

        However, if the final number sold is far lower, such as under 300,000 or so max, then buying lots of tickets, as in upwards of 1,000, could pay off.

        Though it's highly likely 100,000+ tickets will sell in the final few days. Don't know the exact number of numbers terminals PA has, but assuming it's low as 5,000, just 3 tickets sold from each, on average, daily, over ~6 days, will total around 100,000. Or to put it another way, in past raffles, there have been peak days with more then 40,000 tickets sold.

        With all that said, it's certainly worthwhile to buy some raffle tickets. Only takes one to win. The raffle odds are shaping up to be the best they've ever been.

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          United States
          Member #161539
          December 3, 2014
          328 Posts
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          Posted: October 26, 2015, 5:03 am - IP Logged

          Only ~6 days remaining, and still no ticket countdown on the website (they say it's shown in the app, but not seeing on Android). I understand why PA Lottery is downplaying the countdown due to lousy sales. However, at this point, a widely publicized countdown can't hurt, and would likely will help drive some sales.

          For those seeking to game this, don't bet the ranch, because it's still likely around 400,000 tickets will sell. Still an improvement on the odds, but not significantly. Keep in mind, typical PA Lottery $20 instant tickets have better odds of winning something at 1 in ~3 and overall payout around 70%-75% verses, assuming 400,000 tickets sell, 1 in ~67 and 64%, respectively, for the raffle. In short, 400,000 improves the odds, but still far from a sure thing.

          However, if the final number sold is far lower, such as under 300,000 or so max, then buying lots of tickets, as in upwards of 1,000, could pay off.

          Though it's highly likely 100,000+ tickets will sell in the final few days. Don't know the exact number of numbers terminals PA has, but assuming it's low as 5,000, just 3 tickets sold from each, on average, daily, over ~6 days, will total around 100,000. Or to put it another way, in past raffles, there have been peak days with more then 40,000 tickets sold.

          With all that said, it's certainly worthwhile to buy some raffle tickets. Only takes one to win. The raffle odds are shaping up to be the best they've ever been.

          You make some interesting points ... I was hoping for ticket sales to stay around the 300,000 mark ... the Lottery makes a small profit and the players have better odds to win something. However, it looks like ticket sales could blow past that number.

          Even 400,000 tickets is still too many ... better than 500,000 tickets being sold as in previous years, I guess. You mention someone buying 1,000 tickets ... if ticket sales were low, maybe 300,000 total. I'm sure there must have been at least one person that went that route or maybe a group at one point through the years.

          Thinking about it ... $20,000 for 1,000 tickets ... say the amount of tickets sold is 280,000 to 300,000. It's still a real possibility that a person wouldn't even win $100.

          As for myself, if I had that kind of spare cash ... it wouldn't be going into the raffle with a very good chance of winning nothing. A person could easily spend $20,000 over 30 or 40 years of playing the lottery ... just kind of hard to put it on the table all at once.

          Think about it again ... let's say a person decides to buy 10,000 tickets ... total cost $200,000. How foolish that would be ... even winning a $100,000 second prize would still leave them a loser ... only winning one of the four million dollar prizes would work in that scenario ... but then if they did win $1 million dollars and after taxes and getting their $200,000 back ... the reward is just too low.

          If only 300,000 tickets were sold, it's still possible that not one of those 10,000 tickets would be a winner of anything or maybe just a few $100 winners.

          Probably one or two tickets is the way to play the raffle with some hope or lighting some candles around the Chinese Goddess Kwan Yin ... maybe five tickets or at the most ten tickets costing $200 should be a cut-off or stopping point ... spending no more than $200 on a raffle with over 300,000 sold tickets seems reasonable.

          If a person wins nothing, sure they will be down for a few days but will bounce back with a "whole new lottery plan" to win another jackpot ... but bouncing back from losing $20,000 ... may take longer than just a few days!

          ...

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            Pa
            United States
            Member #162117
            December 22, 2014
            99 Posts
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            Posted: October 26, 2015, 11:47 am - IP Logged

            Sales picking up,  243k this Am,  still not quite half way  with over 5 days remaining.

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              Pa
              United States
              Member #162117
              December 22, 2014
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              Posted: October 28, 2015, 8:30 am - IP Logged

              264k sold as of this AM with 3.5 days remaining.  Averaging around 11k sold or so per day.

                GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
                NY State
                United States
                Member #92609
                June 10, 2010
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                Posted: November 16, 2015, 5:40 am - IP Logged

                bump

                About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!