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What do you use for statistical analysis?

Topic closed. 48 replies. Last post 8 months ago by CajunWin4.

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What tools do you use?

pencil and paper [ 16 ]  [29.09%]
excel or other spreadsheet [ 11 ]  [20.00%]
excel + macros [ 3 ]  [5.45%]
database package [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
self-written software [ 6 ]  [10.91%]
commercial software (PC or MAC) [ 5 ]  [9.09%]
website subscription [ 1 ]  [1.82%]
more than 1 of the above [ 8 ]  [14.55%]
none of the above [ 5 ]  [9.09%]
Total Valid Votes [ 55 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 4 ]  
lakerben's avatar - spherewall
New Mexico
United States
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January 29, 2010
11119 Posts
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Posted: December 22, 2015, 10:07 pm - IP Logged

I also use Excel because I know exactly what I setup and how it works.  I have taken most of the processes that I have read about here on LP and incorporated them into workbooks.  I have workbooks for Pick3, Pick4, and Pick 5/39.  I have been focusing lately on Pick4 using Strings, Formulas, Hot, Cold, Odd, Even, Sums, Pairs, Mirrors, Position Changes.  My processes are scattered around my computer desktop like papers piled high enough to hid my real desk.  Eventually I will get them all combined into a workbook that spits out enough winners to be profitable (When I make the right decisions.). 

I always have to guess or select something to initiate the selection process.  My current work is to divide and concur.  I figure that the game requires 4 decisions each with 1:10 odds, that when made give me a 1:10,000 chance of winning (straight) 1:417 of winning (Box).  I have to make 4 correct decisions to win.  I work a different decision.  I reduce the decisions to 2 each with 1:5 odds.  My system has a large variation in the number of combinations that result from each decision.  I am also developing reference boxes feed by the decisions that have been getting box hits 2 out of 3 games.  I am working on positioning so that I can hit more straights. 

Someday..............

Great idea!

I hope you might upload this project once you are done.

How about them cowboys!

 

 

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    Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
    Texas
    United States
    Member #150797
    December 31, 2013
    815 Posts
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    Posted: December 23, 2015, 7:03 am - IP Logged

    I also use Excel because I know exactly what I setup and how it works.  I have taken most of the processes that I have read about here on LP and incorporated them into workbooks.  I have workbooks for Pick3, Pick4, and Pick 5/39.  I have been focusing lately on Pick4 using Strings, Formulas, Hot, Cold, Odd, Even, Sums, Pairs, Mirrors, Position Changes.  My processes are scattered around my computer desktop like papers piled high enough to hid my real desk.  Eventually I will get them all combined into a workbook that spits out enough winners to be profitable (When I make the right decisions.). 

    I always have to guess or select something to initiate the selection process.  My current work is to divide and concur.  I figure that the game requires 4 decisions each with 1:10 odds, that when made give me a 1:10,000 chance of winning (straight) 1:417 of winning (Box).  I have to make 4 correct decisions to win.  I work a different decision.  I reduce the decisions to 2 each with 1:5 odds.  My system has a large variation in the number of combinations that result from each decision.  I am also developing reference boxes feed by the decisions that have been getting box hits 2 out of 3 games.  I am working on positioning so that I can hit more straights. 

    Someday..............

    "I always have to guess or select something to initiate the selection process."

    For me that "something" is my Vtracs spreadsheet.  Reducing things down to only 5 digits makes it easier to spot the patterns, and much easier to guess what is going to fall next, at least I find it so. Of course, since each Vtrac represents 2 "real" digits you are still making a decision at each position.

    "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

    ~Robert A. Heinlein

      Kola's avatar - image
      Blundering Time Traveler

      United States
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      Posted: December 26, 2015, 11:56 pm - IP Logged

      "I always have to guess or select something to initiate the selection process."

      For me that "something" is my Vtracs spreadsheet.  Reducing things down to only 5 digits makes it easier to spot the patterns, and much easier to guess what is going to fall next, at least I find it so. Of course, since each Vtrac represents 2 "real" digits you are still making a decision at each position.

      I agree, and one could even reduce things down to 4 digits, because in the main, 0,4,5 and 9 can all be grouped as one.

      Legend says that The Craggy One was once asked about the Lottery Circle and the aged Lottery LoreKeeper whispered in his gravelly eloquence,"It is known among our kind that 2 successive draws are in reality the 2 center-points of 2 intersecting circles that share a common radius - a Root Center. This Vesica Piscis is the creative womb for all numbers, the Still Point from which two draws will unite & a new one is born. This "perfect" space is a wormhole through Time(Change). Master its proportions & your numerical predictions will not falter". 

        Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
        Texas
        United States
        Member #150797
        December 31, 2013
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        Posted: December 27, 2015, 6:53 am - IP Logged

        I agree, and one could even reduce things down to 4 digits, because in the main, 0,4,5 and 9 can all be grouped as one.

        That's an interesting idea, Kola. 

        It essentially boils the game down to a few decisions:

        -Will the 0,4,5 or 9 show or not? 80% of the time the answer will be "Yes".

        -If 0,4,5,9 show, will it be a single, a pair or a triple?

        -Which of the other 3 digits will hit?

        "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

        ~Robert A. Heinlein

          lakerben's avatar - spherewall
          New Mexico
          United States
          Member #86099
          January 29, 2010
          11119 Posts
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          Posted: December 27, 2015, 1:55 pm - IP Logged

          That's an interesting idea, Kola. 

          It essentially boils the game down to a few decisions:

          -Will the 0,4,5 or 9 show or not? 80% of the time the answer will be "Yes".

          -If 0,4,5,9 show, will it be a single, a pair or a triple?

          -Which of the other 3 digits will hit?

          Are you using Texas for this 80% statement?

          It sure doesn't happen in other states such as New Mexico.

          These percentages seem misleading and off base.  Ridiculous!

           

          Thinking of...

          How about them cowboys!

           

           

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            jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
            Park City, UT
            United States
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            January 18, 2009
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            Posted: December 29, 2015, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

            For pick3 any randomly selected 4 digits equate to 784 straight combinations that contain at least one of the 4 digits.  So the percentage is 78.4% mathematically speaking.  There is nothing special about digits 0, 4, 5, 9 other than they equate to two VTrac digits.  The digits 0, 1, 2, 3 have the same probability of hitting in the next draw but they span 4 VTrac digits.  The grouping of the VTrac digits were completely arbitrary and a different grouping would perform the same.

            Jimmy

              Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
              Texas
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              Posted: December 30, 2015, 7:27 am - IP Logged

              For pick3 any randomly selected 4 digits equate to 784 straight combinations that contain at least one of the 4 digits.  So the percentage is 78.4% mathematically speaking.  There is nothing special about digits 0, 4, 5, 9 other than they equate to two VTrac digits.  The digits 0, 1, 2, 3 have the same probability of hitting in the next draw but they span 4 VTrac digits.  The grouping of the VTrac digits were completely arbitrary and a different grouping would perform the same.

              Jimmy

              Thanks for fielding that one, Jim!

              I might add that I like the 0,4,5,9 scheme in preference to any other 4 number grouping, because 0 is most likely at low, 4 is the most likely digit at mid and 9 is most likely at the high position.  Thus, it is fairly easy to place these digits as box combos.

              0xx, x4x, x5x, xx9

              "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

              ~Robert A. Heinlein

                lakerben's avatar - spherewall
                New Mexico
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                January 29, 2010
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                Posted: December 30, 2015, 11:42 am - IP Logged

                For pick3 any randomly selected 4 digits equate to 784 straight combinations that contain at least one of the 4 digits.  So the percentage is 78.4% mathematically speaking.  There is nothing special about digits 0, 4, 5, 9 other than they equate to two VTrac digits.  The digits 0, 1, 2, 3 have the same probability of hitting in the next draw but they span 4 VTrac digits.  The grouping of the VTrac digits were completely arbitrary and a different grouping would perform the same.

                Jimmy

                I don't use percentages to bet.  Show this as proof instead of just stating that 0,4,5,9 hits in 78 % of draws I don't buy it. You use 78 % of the pool of 1000 numbers but due to repeats, trends etc these percentages don't hold true.  What is available in the 1000  possibilities and what hits over a span of time are two different things.   Go to lotsoft program and analye any state and you will find combinations that have a 0,4,5,9 digit and they are out several draws ,so this is proof these digits that are in the pool dont hit at 78 %.

                Using this as a way to analyze the past 50 draws,100 draws etc. Is a waste of time.  I don't see a 0,4,5,9 in 78 % of the last 10 draws of nmp3.

                Baloney!

                How about them cowboys!

                 

                 

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                  CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                  ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                  United States
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                  Posted: December 30, 2015, 11:55 am - IP Logged

                    jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                    Park City, UT
                    United States
                    Member #69864
                    January 18, 2009
                    993 Posts
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                    Posted: December 30, 2015, 9:58 pm - IP Logged

                    Using Lottery Post's Deflate 3 and filtering for any straight combination containing 0,4,5,9 shows that there are 784 combinations or 78.4% chance of event happening on any particular draw.

                    I agree that in the in the short term there will be variance but over a statistically significant number of draws on a non-bias lottery machine it will approach the number stated.

                    784 Combinations

                    Ham n Cheese!

                    Jimmy

                      lakerben's avatar - spherewall
                      New Mexico
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                      Posted: December 30, 2015, 10:12 pm - IP Logged

                      Using Lottery Post's Deflate 3 and filtering for any straight combination containing 0,4,5,9 shows that there are 784 combinations or 78.4% chance of event happening on any particular draw.

                      I agree that in the in the short term there will be variance but over a statistically significant number of draws on a non-bias lottery machine it will approach the number stated.

                      784 Combinations

                      Ham n Cheese!

                      Jimmy

                      I don't think so.  There is alot of variance in the game.  You are talking apples and oranges.  What can hit and what really hits are why we bet ,but the percentages are way off.  That's why I cringe when someone makes a blanket statement of what could hit.  Nice try but not realistic or acccurate.

                      Bash

                      How about them cowboys!

                       

                       

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                        jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                        Park City, UT
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                        January 18, 2009
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                        Posted: December 31, 2015, 12:47 am - IP Logged

                        The following is the month of December for New Mexico Pick 3 you have had 39 draws out of 52 that have had a 0,4,5,9 in the combination or 39/52 = 0.75 or 75% of the draws which is not far from the math expectation of 78.4%.

                        NewMexico-Pick3-December-2015

                        So lets see what the months of November and December did.  Month of November was 45 of 50.  So if we add them together we get 84 of 102 draws for months of November and December that have had a 0, 4, 5, 9 in them.  84/102 = 82%.

                        NewMexico-Pick3-November-December-2015

                        December, Actual 75% versus math expectation of 78.4%

                        November&December, Actual 82% versus math expectation of 78.4%

                        Sure seems like New Mexico Pick 3 lottery is tracking the math expectation of 78.4%.

                        You obviously don't like the 784 combinations.

                        So lets say it another way instead of finding the combinations that contain 0,4,5,9 lets calculate the number of combinations that don't contain 0,4,5,9.

                        Well that's easy its 6x6x6= 216.  There are 216 combinations that don't contain 0,4,5,9.  There is nothing special about these digits so yes we can make a blanket statement that if you choose any 4 digits you will expect them to hit 78.4% of the time unless you have a bias machine.

                        That's why its useful to do these math calculations if you find a machine that is significantly different than the math expectation then you should be able to beat it for money especially for the lotteries that use RNG machines.

                        Jimmy

                          lakerben's avatar - spherewall
                          New Mexico
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                          Posted: December 31, 2015, 2:21 am - IP Logged

                          The following is the month of December for New Mexico Pick 3 you have had 39 draws out of 52 that have had a 0,4,5,9 in the combination or 39/52 = 0.75 or 75% of the draws which is not far from the math expectation of 78.4%.

                          NewMexico-Pick3-December-2015

                          So lets see what the months of November and December did.  Month of November was 45 of 50.  So if we add them together we get 84 of 102 draws for months of November and December that have had a 0, 4, 5, 9 in them.  84/102 = 82%.

                          NewMexico-Pick3-November-December-2015

                          December, Actual 75% versus math expectation of 78.4%

                          November&December, Actual 82% versus math expectation of 78.4%

                          Sure seems like New Mexico Pick 3 lottery is tracking the math expectation of 78.4%.

                          You obviously don't like the 784 combinations.

                          So lets say it another way instead of finding the combinations that contain 0,4,5,9 lets calculate the number of combinations that don't contain 0,4,5,9.

                          Well that's easy its 6x6x6= 216.  There are 216 combinations that don't contain 0,4,5,9.  There is nothing special about these digits so yes we can make a blanket statement that if you choose any 4 digits you will expect them to hit 78.4% of the time unless you have a bias machine.

                          That's why its useful to do these math calculations if you find a machine that is significantly different than the math expectation then you should be able to beat it for money especially for the lotteries that use RNG machines.

                          Jimmy

                          There is a significant amount of money to be spent to cover these digits.  Two months doesn't cover the whole year so betting percentages means huge losses.  The other 10 months would be spent chasing percentages.  I won't bet that way. 

                          0xx

                          4xx

                          5xx

                          9xx

                          One digit doesnt pay and a back or front pair in NM only nets $5, so it's a wash.

                          I bet with my experience not with percentages because thats only something on this site that impresses people.  The only thing I want is winners.  The only percentage that means anything in gambling is 50%, you either win or lose.

                          How about them cowboys!

                           

                           

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                            jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                            Park City, UT
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                            Posted: December 31, 2015, 11:27 am - IP Logged

                            The only thing I have commented on in this topic is the math related to the following statement since this is the math forum.

                            -Will the 0,4,5 or 9 show or not? 80% of the time the answer will be "Yes".

                            I have not endorsed this statement as either a good or bad strategy when it comes to Pick3.

                            Good luck with your strategies, methods, and betting.

                            Jimmy


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                              Posted: January 3, 2016, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

                                I have been using the test draws for the powerball.. and breaking the numbers down by draw machine and ball set... so far I have done this by hand.. does anybody know a way I can do this with software.. the other website I used is THE LUCKY GENE  ... good website.. good software wheels.. but does not analyze the test draw data so I am stuck here now... I could use some help... are we able to exchange phone numbers on this website.. I am based out of Massachusetts if anybody is local.. we could get together and go over the test draws.. also.. is there any way possible to find out which ball machine and ball set is going to be used for the night draw...