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So, the lottery has yet to produce a single Billion Dollar Winner.

Topic closed. 33 replies. Last post 1 year ago by Murgatroyd.

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When do you think it will happen?

2016 this year. [ 15 ]  [46.88%]
2017 [ 1 ]  [3.12%]
2018 [ 5 ]  [15.62%]
2019 [ 1 ]  [3.12%]
2020 [ 1 ]  [3.12%]
2021 [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
2022 [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
2023 [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
2024 [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
Never [ 9 ]  [28.12%]
Total Valid Votes [ 32 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4077 Posts
Offline
Posted: January 15, 2016, 2:57 am - IP Logged

There are 292,201,338 combinations in the PB pool and this is the expected number of tickets on average

between hits.  This number can be much lower or higher as we seen in the last game.  Even the 5of5 prizes

will fall very close overall to 1 in every 11,238,513 ticket sold.  It does not matter that the draws are added

together or if it were a one draw game.   The last draw had a very large chance of being won by more than

one person based on the ticket sales.  I stated that in the simulations I have ran it sometimes takes 5 times

the pool size before a full match happens.  I have also seen hits on fewer than one million lines.  Many of the

hits are below the 5X but there is nothing to prevent it from going higher.   If I knew the number of tickets 

sold overall that produced the 1.5 billion JP then I could give you the x factor for the last game.  I would guess

somewhere close to 2 billion tickets were sold so the x value would be close to 7.  Two billion ticket sales means

that they sold enough tickets to cover every line in the matrix seven times over, it should not be a surprise that

more than one ticket matched all 6 numbers.  I am not sure we will ever see a single ticket win of one billion

as I think it will likely cap out between 700 to 800 million cash option unless there is a matrix change.  However

anything is possible, random is like that.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

    savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
    adelaide sa
    Australia
    Member #37136
    April 11, 2006
    3316 Posts
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    Posted: January 15, 2016, 3:06 am - IP Logged

    thanks for that . so there are a few known factors when trying to work out the  number of tickets sold. the amount the jackpot increased by, and the percentage of  ticket sales that goes to prize money, %40, and the % of that %40 that gets added to the jackpot prize pool.  i cant find that last one.  is that enough to make a guess at ticket sales numbers?

    2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = ?  TOT =  -3596

    keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 = ? TOT = - 3318

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

      United States
      Member #59354
      March 13, 2008
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      Posted: January 15, 2016, 3:11 am - IP Logged

      I read CA had over 3 million lower level prizes won in the last game, at least I think it was for the last game only.

      Since the lowest prize paid is $4.00 then these wins alone are over 12 million.  I wish they would release the

      total ticket sales.  My 2 billion is just a rough estimate for the last drawing because I do not know if the published

      wins are overall or just the last game. 

      New York had 2,033,682 lower level prizes so even using the lowest prize of $4.00 that's over 8 million.

      RL

      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

        United States
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        March 13, 2008
        4077 Posts
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        Posted: January 15, 2016, 3:56 am - IP Logged

        My figures above are loosely based on what I remember reading on the PB website and as such are not meant to be exact.

        My estimates are based on the odds of 1 in 24.87 for winning a prize.  If  NY players won a total of 2,033,682 prizes and the

        odds are 1 in 24.87 for winning a prize then we can estimate 24.87 * 2,033,682 = 50,577,671 tickets were sold in NY.

        To estimate the overall ticket sales one would add the total prizes for each state then multiply that number by 24.87.  This should

        be close but not 100% accurate.

        RL

        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
          Member #59354
          March 13, 2008
          4077 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 15, 2016, 4:03 am - IP Logged

          I guess winning a 1.5 billion JP is winning a 1.5 billion JP rather one took the cash option or the annuity

          so in that regard we could have a billion dollar winner.

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
            adelaide sa
            Australia
            Member #37136
            April 11, 2006
            3316 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 15, 2016, 5:59 am - IP Logged

            how about we use the number of winners America wide, to determine the number of entered tickets?

             

             the chance of hitting the powerball is 1 in 26, so would that mean there are 26 times number of prizes  won  that had the power ball in them.

            so add all the winners with a powerball in their prize, and multiply that by 26 should give a close approximation of the total of entered tickets.

             

            ill try

             

            total winners = 26110646

            -wins without powerball   -1086089

            = 25024557 then multiply by 26

            = 650 638 482

             

            thats my calc on the number of tickets entered

             

            but i just remembered i wanted to know how many tickets where purchased before the draw results are announced

            2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = ?  TOT =  -3596

            keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 = ? TOT = - 3318

              JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
              The Quantum Master
              West Concord, MN
              United States
              Member #21
              December 7, 2001
              3682 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 15, 2016, 8:43 am - IP Logged

              Been looking this over as well.

              It's been taking about 20 rollovers to get in the realm of possibility for a Billion Dollar jackpot.

              The first 6 rollovers are pretty well fixed at about 10 Million.

              After a 100 Million, people start to take notice; the pot climbs faster than 10 Million after that.

              20 rollovers is 10 weeks, about 2 and 1/2 months; we got time, with the right set of circumstances, this year, but we chose next year with a little more certainty.

              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
              Use at your own risk.

              Order is a Subset of Chaos
              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
              Wisdom is Not Censored
              Douglas Paul Smallish
              Jehocifer

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                United States
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                March 13, 2008
                4077 Posts
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                Posted: January 15, 2016, 7:01 pm - IP Logged

                The only method know would be to go to each state and get the total number of prizes paid. Since the odds

                say that the chance of winning a prize is 1 in 24.87 then we can multiply that by the total number of people

                who won one a prize. 

                 

                In Missouri there were 429,587 winners so the estimate is 24.87 * 429,587 = 10,683,828 tickets.  This is

                only for the last drawing.  To get a estimate for all states combined we would need to do the same for all

                states that sale PB tickets.  The lowest cost estimated can be gotten by multiplying the total by $2.00.

                There are 44 states that sale power-ball tickets and CA. sold over 3,000,000 tickets.  I estimate a low

                ball figure of somewhere around 800,000,000 tickets were sold.

                 

                That's greater than 2X the total lines in the the matrix. 

                RL

                Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                  savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
                  adelaide sa
                  Australia
                  Member #37136
                  April 11, 2006
                  3316 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: January 15, 2016, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

                  https://www.usamega.com/powerball-drawing.asp?d=1/13/2016

                  Jackpot Winners (All States)

                  Match First 5
                  +
                  Match Powerball
                  No. of
                  Winners
                  Prize AmountTotal Awarded
                    5 + 1 (Jackpot)3$528,800,000$1,586,400,000
                  Total3$1,586,400,000


                  All States Except California

                  Match First 5
                  +
                  Match Powerball
                  No. of
                  Winners
                  Prize AmountTotal Awarded
                    5 + 0
                      with Power Play †
                  61
                  8
                  $1,000,000
                  $2,000,000
                  $61,000,000
                  $16,000,000
                    4 + 1
                      with Power Play
                  686
                  107
                  $50,000
                  $100,000
                  $34,300,000
                  $10,700,000
                    4 + 0
                      with Power Play
                  17,177
                  2,834
                  $100
                  $200
                  $1,717,700
                  $566,800
                    3 + 1
                      with Power Play
                  39,795
                  6,597
                  $100
                  $200
                  $3,979,500
                  $1,319,400
                    3 + 0
                      with Power Play
                  752,973
                  120,695
                  $7
                  $14
                  $5,270,811
                  $1,689,730
                    2 + 1
                      with Power Play
                  975,162
                  157,552
                  $7
                  $14
                  $6,826,134
                  $2,205,728
                    1 + 1
                      with Power Play
                  5,339,664
                  840,981
                  $4
                  $8
                  $21,358,656
                  $6,727,848
                    0 + 1
                      with Power Play
                  12,283,803
                  1,914,561
                  $4
                  $8
                  $49,135,212
                  $15,316,488
                  Total22,452,659$238,114,007

                   Power Play at this level is always 2.


                  California Only

                  Match First 5
                  +
                  Match Powerball
                  No. of
                  Winners
                  Prize AmountTotal Awarded
                    5 + 012$638,146$7,657,752
                    4 + 1141$13,903$1,960,323
                    4 + 03,367$291$979,797
                    3 + 17,890$129$1,017,810
                    3 + 0188,962$6$1,133,772
                    2 + 1142,124$7$994,868
                    1 + 11,003,573$5$5,017,865
                    0 + 12,311,918$4$9,247,672
                  Total3,657,987$28,009,859

                  2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = ?  TOT =  -3596

                  keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 = ? TOT = - 3318

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                    United States
                    Member #59354
                    March 13, 2008
                    4077 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 15, 2016, 7:13 pm - IP Logged

                    Based on the above I would estimate 649,371,766 tickets were sold.  The real total could be more or less.

                    Estimate is based on the odds of 1 in 24.87 for winning a prize.

                    RL

                    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                      Avatar
                      Arizona
                      United States
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                      March 24, 2015
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                      Posted: January 15, 2016, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

                      The actual number, according to my usual source for sales figures, was 635,103,137. I suspect that there were more prizewinners than the odds predicted because most of the numbers drawn were birthday numbers.

                      This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

                        travelintrucker's avatar - morph
                        Greenville, SC
                        United States
                        Member #169870
                        November 4, 2015
                        374 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 15, 2016, 8:20 pm - IP Logged

                        That $1.6B jackpot was just the beginning of a VERY interesting year. We will probably, no, will most likely see 5 more billion+ jackpots this year. Like, every 2 months.

                        May the balls bounce in your favor!

                          Avatar
                          Oklahoma
                          United States
                          Member #4170
                          March 27, 2004
                          103 Posts
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                          Posted: January 15, 2016, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

                          I am not sure why people say they are billion dollar winners because they will have to pay taxes so they are million dollar winners

                            Avatar
                            Arizona
                            United States
                            Member #165073
                            March 24, 2015
                            220 Posts
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                            Posted: January 15, 2016, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

                            The actual number, according to my usual source for sales figures, was 635,103,137. I suspect that there were more prizewinners than the odds predicted because most of the numbers drawn were birthday numbers.

                            This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

                            Looks like LP's system doesn't like that site's URL. It can be found easily enough by googling "powerball sales by state".

                              savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
                              adelaide sa
                              Australia
                              Member #37136
                              April 11, 2006
                              3316 Posts
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                              Posted: January 16, 2016, 2:45 am - IP Logged

                              hehe thanks for the clue,. linky didnt work but found this

                               

                              /PBSalesbystate.htm and yeah tks .

                              using this new fangled goo gull i also found this...

                               

                              Who decides how much the Powerball jackpot should be and how is it figured?

                              The jackpot comes from a percentage of the sales for each individual drawing. Fifty percent of the ticket sales go into the entire prize pool. From the prize pool, 32.6689 percent funds the jackpot prize and 17.3311 percent is used for the lower-tier prizes. For more information, see Powerball.

                               

                              so if you where to divide the amount the jackpot goes up by 0.1633445 or %16.33445. you should also get the amount of sales pre draw. oh but then i guess divide that  result by 2. as their is 1 ticket per $2 sold

                              but i will use a generic 16% for my calculations

                              2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = ?  TOT =  -3596

                              keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 = ? TOT = - 3318