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Are we throwing away our money by trying to beat an RNG?

Topic closed. 17 replies. Last post 11 months ago by MzDuffleBaglady.

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fast eddie's avatar - lasvegas2
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Posted: January 19, 2016, 10:03 pm - IP Logged

Seems like a lot of players including myself feel like a system works best against ping pong balls drawings and have had some success and think they don't have that same advantage against an RNG. So are we throwing away money by trying to beat RNG lotteries?

"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned"

    rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
    Texas
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    Posted: January 19, 2016, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

    Seems like a lot of players including myself feel like a system works best against ping pong balls drawings and have had some success and think they don't have that same advantage against an RNG. So are we throwing away money by trying to beat RNG lotteries?

    Prolly throwing our money away trying to beat the lottery, period.

    CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

    A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

      fast eddie's avatar - lasvegas2
      Chicago,IL.
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      Posted: January 19, 2016, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

      Prolly throwing our money away trying to beat the lottery, period.

      yeah but it didn't seem so stupid when i had a plan (system)  LOL

      "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned"

        MzDuffleBaglady's avatar - Lottery-018.jpg

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        Posted: January 19, 2016, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

        Exactly.

        The Struggle is real!

          Raven62's avatar - binary
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          Posted: January 19, 2016, 10:27 pm - IP Logged

          yeah but it didn't seem so stupid when i had a plan (system)  LOL

          So what happened to the Plan?

          A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

            fast eddie's avatar - lasvegas2
            Chicago,IL.
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            Posted: January 19, 2016, 10:42 pm - IP Logged

            So what happened to the Plan?

            In theory the plan should be the same but i just feel i can't get any advantage against an RNG. I don't know if it's i just don't trust them but I don't like them and feel traditional ping pong systems will not work as well vs. an RNG. maybe someone else has some thoughts on this?

            "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned"

              rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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              Posted: January 19, 2016, 10:58 pm - IP Logged

              Cleaning out my garage I came across some old Ohio Lotto tickets from 1985. So it dawned on me I've been playing some type of lotto/PB/MM game for over 30 years.

              The most I ever won on a lotto game was $898 on 5 of 6 on Ohio Lotto. Won $400 on Pick 4 couple years ago. $100/$200 here and there on other games. But on lotto, $898.

              But.......

              I'll keep playing, chasing that jackpot. I'm in too deep to stop now. With the odds we play against, it doesn't matter how they draw the numbers.

              The bad thing about RNG is not being able to get an advantage or not. You are not ever gonna get an advantage RNG or mechanical draw. The bad thing about RNG is that it's been proven someone can rig it and if not for being stupid, would have gotten away with it.

              CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

              A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                travelintrucker's avatar - morph
                Greenville, SC
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                Posted: January 20, 2016, 10:05 am - IP Logged

                A lot of states preach about transparency in their lottery games. It'd be nice to know that they hold themselves to that same standard by showing that they don't have a personal hand it what numbers are drawn. Meaning, let the balls bounce!

                May the balls bounce in your favor!

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                  Illinois
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                  Posted: January 20, 2016, 1:05 pm - IP Logged

                  Seems like a lot of players including myself feel like a system works best against ping pong balls drawings and have had some success and think they don't have that same advantage against an RNG. So are we throwing away money by trying to beat RNG lotteries?

                  I have been wondering the same thing.

                   

                  I am beginning to seriously wonder about this rng stuff here in Illinois.  They changed over to rng in October and since then no-one has won the Illinois Lotto game.  The Lucky Day Lotto before the change would seldom get over $400,000 but is now normally over $400,000.

                   

                  If they are not manipulating the rng, how is it any more random than the ping pong balls?  I can see maybe a small difference in the jackpot amounts during the change, but I don't understand such a big difference unless they are manipulating it somehow.

                   

                  I know the people who run the lottery think the bigger jackpots will draw in more people and that may be true when the occasional jackpot gets larger.  I just think they are not taking into consideration that if it is consistently unable to be won, players are going to think "why bother".

                  --------------------------------------------------------

                  If it was easy, everybody would do it. Big Smile

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                    Posted: January 20, 2016, 2:02 pm - IP Logged

                    Playing any game of chance where the house has a 50% edge is throwing your money away IMO.

                    In some lotteries the house edge is even far worse than 50%.

                    If you are skilled, learn to play poker or become a wizard at sports betting, both fields where you effectively are playing against other people and if your skill is greater than average you could make money over the long run.

                     

                    Playing lotteries can be fun for the pleasure of imaging what you would do if you hit a big prize, nothing wrong with spending $20 on lottery tickets or $20 on movie tickets.  Nothing even wrong with spending endless hours conjuring up a system and trying it out.  Everyone needs a hobby or two.  Just don't be "that guy" who ends up throwing away his financial future by blowing too much money gambling, it can be as addicting and self destructive as crack cocaine.

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                      Wyomissing, PA
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                      Posted: January 20, 2016, 2:12 pm - IP Logged

                      Seems like a lot of players including myself feel like a system works best against ping pong balls drawings and have had some success and think they don't have that same advantage against an RNG. So are we throwing away money by trying to beat RNG lotteries?

                      For many, including myself, it's not RNG itself that's an issue, but rather there's a lack of transparency in regards to draw integrity. A properly functioning RNG, assuming no tampering, is just as good as balls.

                      However, it's conceivable that the number distribution may be different between the two methods, but the outcome over many draws should be identical with all numbers / combinations having an equal chance of appearing. Casinos have used RNGs for decades with relatively few issues. Personally, I've played much at casinos, and have found their machines, over much play, to payout as statistics would dictate.

                      For ball draws, the balls and machine can be viewed, examined, etc. With RNG, it's a mystery "black box" that few, including most lottery officials, even fully understand. The computer source code and hardware is closed, and not available to the public to analyze. Further, the process of how RNG draws are performed is lacking.

                      Lotteries, collectively, have had a lousy track-record with RNGs. In my view, as with many others here, lotteries should use balls whenever possible.

                        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
                        The Quantum Master
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                        Posted: January 20, 2016, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

                        You beat RNG by not playing.

                        When their revenue plummets to near zero, its a win-win for us.

                        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                        Use at your own risk.

                        Order is a Subset of Chaos
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                          Posted: January 20, 2016, 2:36 pm - IP Logged

                          I have been wondering the same thing.

                           

                          I am beginning to seriously wonder about this rng stuff here in Illinois.  They changed over to rng in October and since then no-one has won the Illinois Lotto game.  The Lucky Day Lotto before the change would seldom get over $400,000 but is now normally over $400,000.

                           

                          If they are not manipulating the rng, how is it any more random than the ping pong balls?  I can see maybe a small difference in the jackpot amounts during the change, but I don't understand such a big difference unless they are manipulating it somehow.

                           

                          I know the people who run the lottery think the bigger jackpots will draw in more people and that may be true when the occasional jackpot gets larger.  I just think they are not taking into consideration that if it is consistently unable to be won, players are going to think "why bother".

                          Let's take a look at the Illinois Lotto.

                          You say "They changed over to rng in October and since then no-one has won the Illinois Lotto game"

                          I don't know when that change took place, let's assume the first drawing in Oct was the switch.

                          There have been 48 drawings during that time period.

                          Prior to that there was a winner on July 25th

                           

                          What is more significant is that Illinois says a they experienced a large drop in ticket sales after they started handing out IOUs to winners.

                           

                          Nothing beats fewer tickets sold to reduce the chances that a jackpot will be hit.

                           

                          Not that the jackpot going 48 drawings without a winner hasn't happened in the past as well

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                            Posted: January 20, 2016, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

                            I completely agree that the black box approach to picking numbers is a poor one for transparency.  There is not only a recent history of manipulation but also an awareness that it could be done in a way that would be difficult to detect.

                            The good news is that people who rig them are trying to make a particular number or set of numbers appear and not to prevent people from winning (the house edge and obviousness if win rates over large numbers of tickets aren't close to expected values make it both unnecessary and too easy to observe).  So it shouldn't affect anyone else's odds of winning other than potentially sharing the big prize. 

                            There is also a history of rigging ball picking machines and more sophisticated rigging/manipulation/sleight of hand/deception could have or be occurring without being noticed.

                            In the end, as I mentioned previously, it just doesn't matter except for a jackpot winner who could end up with a smaller jackpot due to either sharing the prize with a rigger or a rigger's previous win reducing the amount of the current jackpot.

                             

                            There are unofficial lotteries (run by "criminal organizations").  They were originally made illegal because they offered poor payouts and did rig their games to increase their take.  They solved the second problem by simply using the numbers from an official drawing and since the official lotteries have such poor payouts, the unofficial ones can offer better odds (but not the monster prizes for obvious reasons). 

                            A similar approach could be used to make it more difficult for someone to rig the numbers in a big game.  Instead of drawing your own numbers, use a published algorithm that takes numbers from multiple other independent draws as inputs and produces your numbers.  Anyone can verify the inputs and the outputs.  An example algorithm would be a PRNG with the independent numbers used as the seed.  Seed not predictable, output of the PRNG not predictable.

                            The PRNG doesn't need to be hidden, it is simply software than anyone can examine the source code, replicate and run.  Punch in the inputs, out comes the weekly numbers.  If the MN lottery is gaming their draw it doesn't matter unless FL, AZ, TX, CA and ... are also doing so and all in cahoots.  Easier to spot a conspiracy of 100's than a conspiracy of a few people.

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                              Posted: January 20, 2016, 3:44 pm - IP Logged

                              So what happened to the Plan?

                              It collided with reality.

                              As near as I can tell there are exactly two possibilities with RNG's. Either they're just as good as ball drawings for picking completely random numbers or they're not as good at picking random numbers. There are then two possibilities for the results you get with that "plan" you think is useful:

                              1. The drawings are completely random, and since you can't predict the individual results of random events your plan offers no advantages. Any apparent success is really just due to coincidence. Kind of like flipping one coin to predict the results of flipping a different coin - it's going to be right about half the time, but not because the coin is capable of making an accurate prediction.
                              2. The drawings are not random. Since they aren't random the results are at least somewhat predictable. It would then be possible to improve your odds. If you aren't benefiting from that predictability then it's because you're not good enough to make accurate predictions.

                              It's really that simple. The RNG's may not let you see the selection process the way a ball drawing does, but if there's a flaw in their ability to produce random results that's a benefit to any player smart enough to figure it out. It would either allow to you make valid predictions about the results or eliminate some of the possibilities. The screw up in Tennessee is a good example of the latter. Anybody who realized that repeated numbers had been disallowed could bet on the numbers in the smaller set of possible results.