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PA Millionaire Raffle- St. Patrick's Day Edition

Topic closed. 35 replies. Last post 7 months ago by dr65.

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Pa
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Posted: February 25, 2016, 5:32 pm - IP Logged

Tickets went on sale Jan 11, as of today, with 23 days until the drawing, sales are at a slow 106K sold, with an average of under 2,400 per day sold.  Hoping it stays well below sell out numbers to increase the odds slightly and that the lottery sticks to the drawing date of March 19, which is two days after St. Partrick's Day.  The last two Raffles have not sold out and I feel it is losing its luster a bit.  At its peak, they sold around 40K per day, usually the last several days before the drawing, although the lottery did not broadcast their typical tickets remaining on their website.  In an effort to boost sales the PA lottery also has a promotion going for a Lots O' Cash Second-Chance Drawing.  Good luck.

    dr65's avatar - black panther.jpg
    Pennsylvania
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    Posted: February 25, 2016, 8:32 pm - IP Logged

    Ty for the update Jeopardy. I will try one this time around. Gl to you!

    246 ~~ 485 ~~ 369 ~~ 890 ~~ 705 ~~ 357 ~~ 129 ~~ 165 ~  007 ~ 225 ~ 818 ~ 440 ~  7775 5557

      GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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      Posted: February 26, 2016, 7:53 am - IP Logged

      Tickets went on sale Jan 11, as of today, with 23 days until the drawing, sales are at a slow 106K sold, with an average of under 2,400 per day sold.  Hoping it stays well below sell out numbers to increase the odds slightly and that the lottery sticks to the drawing date of March 19, which is two days after St. Partrick's Day.  The last two Raffles have not sold out and I feel it is losing its luster a bit.  At its peak, they sold around 40K per day, usually the last several days before the drawing, although the lottery did not broadcast their typical tickets remaining on their website.  In an effort to boost sales the PA lottery also has a promotion going for a Lots O' Cash Second-Chance Drawing.  Good luck.

      Players might be getting "Raffle Fatigue"  Maybe that end's up being a good thing!  Hope so.  G5

      About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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        Pa
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        Posted: March 2, 2016, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

        Coworker said about 133,000 sold to date. 17 days remaining. 4.5K avg sold per day since last update.

          GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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          Posted: March 3, 2016, 7:04 am - IP Logged

          Coworker said about 133,000 sold to date. 17 days remaining. 4.5K avg sold per day since last update.

          Sounds to me like they will fall well short of selling 500,000 tickets.  I've only bought one so far (and I split the cost of it with a friend at work) so I'm now thinking that maybe I'll get a few more.  G5,

          About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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            Pa
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            Posted: March 3, 2016, 8:04 am - IP Logged

            I agree,  sales would have to average  22k per day sold from here on out and that certainly won't happen, it might happen the last week  though.  I predict only 340000 will sell.

             

            I went back and looked at the Halloween thread, and sales are lacking now compared to the same number of days remaining and that raffle only sold around 356000.  During the Halloween raffle 123000 were sold with  22 days remaining and were selling at 6000 average per day. The 150000 mark was hit with 18 days left. I agree there is raffle fatigue in PA. I am liking these slightly better odds.

              GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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              Posted: March 3, 2016, 4:10 pm - IP Logged

              I agree,  sales would have to average  22k per day sold from here on out and that certainly won't happen, it might happen the last week  though.  I predict only 340000 will sell.

               

              I went back and looked at the Halloween thread, and sales are lacking now compared to the same number of days remaining and that raffle only sold around 356000.  During the Halloween raffle 123000 were sold with  22 days remaining and were selling at 6000 average per day. The 150000 mark was hit with 18 days left. I agree there is raffle fatigue in PA. I am liking these slightly better odds.

              I agree, I like the "slightly better odds" myself, which is why I'm so tempted to buy a few more tix.

              But there is a lot of hype about the odds too.

              Yes, 500,000 to 4 odds is mathematically the same as 125,000 to 1.  But that's only on paper.

              To be able to see why I say there's a lot of hype about the odds think of the drawing this way:

              In the "old days" they used to put 100,000 paper lottery tickets in a huge drum, spin it around for a while to mix up the tickets, then they opened the door of the drum, and somebody reached in it and pulled out one paper lottery ticket and whomever's name was on that slip of paper was the winner of the top prize.  So in that instance, the odds were 100,000 to 1.  If there was going to be two top prize winners, on paper the odds would be 50,000 to 1.  BUT!!  All that happened was somebody reached in that drum which still had 99,999 pieces of paper in it, and pulled out one slip of paper.  So to me, the odds for that second drawing were 99,999 to 1, not 50,000 to 1. 

              That's exactly what happens today, except a huge drum with 500,000 paper raffle tickets is no longer used.  Instead a computer program selects one six digit number out of a pool of 500,000 six digit numbers.  The first winning ticket can no longer win a prize, so now there are 499,999 six digit numbers remaining in the pool that could be selected, making the odds 499,999 to 1 when the second winner is "drawn".  (created) G5

              About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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                Pa
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                Posted: March 4, 2016, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

                I will have to revise my estimate downwards slightly.  Sales should hit 150,000 tomorrow, which puts it 4 days behind, equivalent to 20,0000 tickets or so, from the sales from the Halloween drawing.  About 5,500 tickets on avg sold per day.

                  GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                  Posted: March 5, 2016, 7:25 am - IP Logged

                  I will have to revise my estimate downwards slightly.  Sales should hit 150,000 tomorrow, which puts it 4 days behind, equivalent to 20,0000 tickets or so, from the sales from the Halloween drawing.  About 5,500 tickets on avg sold per day.

                  Jep, you're thinking a total of less than 340,000 will be sold?  G5

                  About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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                    Pa
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                    Posted: March 5, 2016, 8:47 am - IP Logged

                    Yes, based on how slow they are selling compared to the Halloween raffle.

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                      Pa
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                      Posted: March 5, 2016, 10:18 am - IP Logged

                      I had a typo in my earlier post, I meant 20,000 not 200,000, haha.

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                        Pa
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                        Posted: March 10, 2016, 8:21 am - IP Logged

                        While daily sales have greatly increased,  sales are still 25,000 behind the Halloween drawing with the same number of days remaining. I expect a big advertising bombardment from the lottery to try to boost sales.  Looking to sell around 335, 000 tickets or so,  that would put odds of winning a million around 1 in 84000 or close to it. If 335,000 tickets do sell,  that puts the half way mark for sales on March 9., which is 58 days into the ticket sale window,  which shows how much people wait to the last 1.5 weeks to play.

                          GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                          Posted: March 10, 2016, 9:54 am - IP Logged

                          While daily sales have greatly increased,  sales are still 25,000 behind the Halloween drawing with the same number of days remaining. I expect a big advertising bombardment from the lottery to try to boost sales.  Looking to sell around 335, 000 tickets or so,  that would put odds of winning a million around 1 in 84000 or close to it. If 335,000 tickets do sell,  that puts the half way mark for sales on March 9., which is 58 days into the ticket sale window,  which shows how much people wait to the last 1.5 weeks to play.

                          With just 9 days remaining until the drawing, I would think that we're now in that "rush to buy tickets"  window.

                          Although it's been discussed many times here for other raffle drawings, I'm always amazed by it.  Not only have I seen the mad dash to buy tickets at the last minute in PA, but when Connecticut had their millionaire raffles, it occurred there as well.

                          There's been many reasons tossed around here as to why the rush occurs, but to my mind, there's two main reasons for it.  My first guess is the cost of a ticket.  Twenty bucks per ticket is a big nut for many people.  I'm guessing they don't want to part with a twenty dollar bill until they absolutely have to.  Secondly, players don't want to miss out on the raffle, they understand the odds are low. So not wanting to miss out combined with the cost of a ticket is probably why there's always a last minute rush. G5

                          About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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                            Pa
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                            Posted: March 16, 2016, 3:03 pm - IP Logged

                            A spokesman for the lottery reaffirmed that all prizes will be awarded to no matter how many tickets are sold which is good because sales are 30,000 behind the Halloween raffle .  230000 tickets sold to date with 3 days remaining. Looks like around 310000 should sell.

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                              Posted: March 16, 2016, 3:28 pm - IP Logged

                              Cool.  I have 10 tickets!!