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Seeing Inside Random a Parody ??

Topic closed. 27 replies. Last post 9 months ago by SilverLion.

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Tulsa
United States
Member #172877
February 7, 2016
131 Posts
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Posted: February 29, 2016, 6:23 pm - IP Logged

Why waste your time trying to define random in way it can generate winning numbers?
There is about 20 years of experience here in LP strongly indicating that your are wasting brain energy that
could be more productive in other ways.
What ways?
TRENDS
All you have to do is devise some positive logging and tracking procedures that generate data streams
having clues that will help you make rationale guesswork about what could happen next. 
Your job would be evaluate the strings you, repeat, you created using your own ideas and methods.
After awhile, you will discover that lotteries are not as random as everyone thinks.
Yes, true, a lot of guesswork is involved, but, that's the name of the game.
You could easily make correct choices and make playing the lottery more interesting.
You could of course, continue down the path your are apparently on in an attempt to create a system where
the most work you will have to do is punch a few computer keys and get a set of winning combinations.
Yeah, right, good luck with that!!
The best system is a personal system.
I use the power of substitution. It works for me.
Maybe not for you, if you are thinking I should tell you how to do it.
I don't always make the right choices, but, I'm winning often enough to make it worthwhile.
So, get yourself a pack of graph paper and pencils.
Create a central data base that will reflect the information you believe you need and go from there.
Skip the mathematics, algorithms, hot and cold, odd and even, short or long, Vtracs, and other methods that
are worthless.
True, you may spend a lot of time and effort going down some dead end streets, but that's how you learn.
It can be done.
You just have to sit down and DO IT!!

True randomness makes any and all systems worthless.  If the game is truly random, then it doesn't matter what system you are using as you are just guessing the same way as some random player goes and fills out numbers on a ticket.  I don't see how the previous draw relates to the next one unless the game is not entirely random and that each current draw has a true relation to the ones that precede them.  I'm not sure that I believe that isn't so.  I've been a consistent lottery player for a short amount of time but there are things that I have personally seen that have me second guessing as to whether the game is truly random as they say it is.

    bobby623's avatar - abstract
    San Angelo, Texas
    United States
    Member #1097
    January 31, 2003
    1394 Posts
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    Posted: February 29, 2016, 6:55 pm - IP Logged

    True randomness makes any and all systems worthless.  If the game is truly random, then it doesn't matter what system you are using as you are just guessing the same way as some random player goes and fills out numbers on a ticket.  I don't see how the previous draw relates to the next one unless the game is not entirely random and that each current draw has a true relation to the ones that precede them.  I'm not sure that I believe that isn't so.  I've been a consistent lottery player for a short amount of time but there are things that I have personally seen that have me second guessing as to whether the game is truly random as they say it is.

    Suggestion:
    Visit a lottery website where actual ball machine drawings are streamed online.
    After a few visits watching the ball machines at work, there should be no doubt in your mind that
    the winning numbers are chosen by CHANCE.
    In other words, there are no discernible actions suggesting that the balls are selected according to some devious plan.
    It may not be 100 per cent random, but so what.
    Do you think you would win if 100% purely random is at play rather than 'sufficiently random'??
    We have to deal with the facts at hand, or go nuts trying to justify our beliefs that the game is crooked, which it isn't.
    My point is that there are ways to tracking lottery game history that generate useful data strings that
    can be analyzed and used in the guesswork, which playing the lottery is all about, given that there no way
    under the Sun and or down to the center of the Earth that any mortal person can know exactly what the next
    winning numbers will be.
    All we can do is use our brain power and imagination to manage our plays, generate meaningful trends and make the best guesses we can.
    I use the winning numbers  to 'drive' my personal, paper and pencil, workout.
    No math, no algorithms, no odds, no percentages, no roots nor canals, or any of the methods a great deal of energy is used to post here everyday.
    Will I ever win a jackpot?
    Who knows. We won't know until it happens!
    All I know for sure is that I'll never win a Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot because I don't play those games.
    Again, why don't you put random in the nearest toilet and flush.
    Then get busy engineering methods that could pay off.
    I did and I'm having a lot of fun!

      Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

      United States
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      May 13, 2013
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      Posted: February 29, 2016, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

      I just had a thought.

      Trying to See inside Random is like trying to set up a level a surveying instrument on a floating barge in the middle of a storm at a specific point in time.  If you could do that you might see the numbers when you looked in the optical plummet or where the plummet laser pointed.

      "A gambler with a system must be, to a greater or lesser extent, insane.” George Augustus Sala

        bobby623's avatar - abstract
        San Angelo, Texas
        United States
        Member #1097
        January 31, 2003
        1394 Posts
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        Posted: February 29, 2016, 8:05 pm - IP Logged

        "A gambler with a system must be, to a greater or lesser extent, insane.” George Augustus Sala

        Teddi!

        In lottery play, gamblers rely on 'systems' and 'workouts' to guide their play selections.
        A 'system' is a data set where a User activates a few keyboard keys and gets a desired number of combinations derived from past drawings, according to some mathematical formulae generally known only by the creator of the system.
        A 'workout' is a method whereby certain data is logged and re-logged according to clearly defined repetitive tracking plans.
        Users evaluate the data strings for 'clues' that identify the integers having the best chance of being in the next winning combination.
        Sometimes the clues are correct and a gambler wins.
        I think 'Sala' was referring to casino gamblers, which is totally different from lottery gambling, in my humble opinion.

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          Tulsa
          United States
          Member #172877
          February 7, 2016
          131 Posts
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          Posted: February 29, 2016, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

          My contention is that if you can arrive at future numbers based on past events then the game is not truly random.

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            Lincoln, California
            United States
            Member #167130
            June 27, 2015
            256 Posts
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            Posted: February 29, 2016, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

            Suggestion:
            Visit a lottery website where actual ball machine drawings are streamed online.
            After a few visits watching the ball machines at work, there should be no doubt in your mind that
            the winning numbers are chosen by CHANCE.
            In other words, there are no discernible actions suggesting that the balls are selected according to some devious plan.
            It may not be 100 per cent random, but so what.
            Do you think you would win if 100% purely random is at play rather than 'sufficiently random'??
            We have to deal with the facts at hand, or go nuts trying to justify our beliefs that the game is crooked, which it isn't.
            My point is that there are ways to tracking lottery game history that generate useful data strings that
            can be analyzed and used in the guesswork, which playing the lottery is all about, given that there no way
            under the Sun and or down to the center of the Earth that any mortal person can know exactly what the next
            winning numbers will be.
            All we can do is use our brain power and imagination to manage our plays, generate meaningful trends and make the best guesses we can.
            I use the winning numbers  to 'drive' my personal, paper and pencil, workout.
            No math, no algorithms, no odds, no percentages, no roots nor canals, or any of the methods a great deal of energy is used to post here everyday.
            Will I ever win a jackpot?
            Who knows. We won't know until it happens!
            All I know for sure is that I'll never win a Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot because I don't play those games.
            Again, why don't you put random in the nearest toilet and flush.
            Then get busy engineering methods that could pay off.
            I did and I'm having a lot of fun!

            Ball Drawings are Definitely Random  RNG I'm not so sure.  If I was up against Ball machines I would not waste my time with any system.  As to your previous post about wasting my time.  It was a freaking Day Dream and an analogy that as an Engineer (Yes that means that I have the Nack) that I find Amusing.  Maybe I should have posted on an Engineering Ssite.

              Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
              Texas
              United States
              Member #150797
              December 31, 2013
              815 Posts
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              Posted: March 1, 2016, 8:01 am - IP Logged

              My contention is that if you can arrive at future numbers based on past events then the game is not truly random.

              "My contention is that if you can arrive at future numbers based on past events then the game is not truly random."

              Not true.  There is a mathematical probability that one or more of the numbers will repeat from the last drawing, the drawing before that, etc.  Since we can calculate the probability, we can make a prediction (repeats, no repeats) and know how often we will be correct.

              Just because 978 is followed by 827 or 5-17-27-39-56 is followed by 7-21-27-55-70 does not mean that the game is not random.  If repeats occur more or less than the math probability over time, that would be an indication that the game is not random.

              "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

              ~Robert A. Heinlein

                TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
                Brooklyn, NY
                United States
                Member #169723
                October 29, 2015
                877 Posts
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                Posted: March 1, 2016, 8:42 am - IP Logged

                Years ago, I used to buy a Lotto newspaper and it tracked the ball position before the draw. Being that they rotate the balls in the tubes before dropping into the mixer. So, ball 1-14 would be in tube 1 one draw and then next draw those balls would be in tube 2 and so on for the subsequent draws.

                Since they drop the balls in the same manner for each draw, is it possible that the position of the balls takes some of the randomness out of the game?

                The Meatman

                “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

                Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

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                  Madison, WI
                  United States
                  Member #172977
                  February 11, 2016
                  515 Posts
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                  Posted: March 1, 2016, 10:33 am - IP Logged

                  "My contention is that if you can arrive at future numbers based on past events then the game is not truly random."

                  Not true.  There is a mathematical probability that one or more of the numbers will repeat from the last drawing, the drawing before that, etc.  Since we can calculate the probability, we can make a prediction (repeats, no repeats) and know how often we will be correct.

                  Just because 978 is followed by 827 or 5-17-27-39-56 is followed by 7-21-27-55-70 does not mean that the game is not random.  If repeats occur more or less than the math probability over time, that would be an indication that the game is not random.

                  Hmmm.. I think the statement is true. If the game is random, then the last draw or any number of last draws will have no correlation to the next draw.

                  Yes, over time, there is a certain probability that there will be a repeat, or no repeat. However, that probability is the same probability for any numbers you want to substitute for the last draw as well. In pick 3, if you pick any 3 numbers, adjusting for doubles or triples, you will have the same chance of getting one digit right as the chance of a digit repeating from the last draw.

                  Now, if the game is not random, then that changes everything.

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                    Slovenia
                    Member #172924
                    February 9, 2016
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                    Posted: March 1, 2016, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

                    Years ago, I used to buy a Lotto newspaper and it tracked the ball position before the draw. Being that they rotate the balls in the tubes before dropping into the mixer. So, ball 1-14 would be in tube 1 one draw and then next draw those balls would be in tube 2 and so on for the subsequent draws.

                    Since they drop the balls in the same manner for each draw, is it possible that the position of the balls takes some of the randomness out of the game?

                    Genuine concern but it doesn't really hold up. The reason is the chaos theory. Because of the chaotic nature of the system, even if just one ball is slightly displaced, in just a few seconds of mixing, the pattern will be completely unpredictable. Notice the double-rod pendulum on the wikipedia page about the chaos theory; if you displace the second rod by just an atom, the behaviour will be completely different. Any system with mutual dependencies is very sensitive to initial conditions. And in the case of the lottery machine, you don't only have two but many balls, all influencing each other and thus making the system extremely sensitive to initial conditions. 

                    This is the reason that ironically the position of the moon for example, actually does influence the lottery draw (in absolutely no useful way however). Even though gravity of the moon is extremely insignificant as compared to all mechanical forces in the drawing machine, by displacing just a molecule of air a little, it already starts the butterfly effect. 

                    But I have seen some lottery draws where the first ball was drawn very quickly. The air mixer didn't even bring all the balls to their usual momentum when the mechanism already pulled the first ball out. In such a case, I'm not sure that chaos had time to build up from tiny discrepancies in initial conditions. So I do have doubts about quality of randomness regarding the firs ball if it's drawn too quickly. But to know that with a high degree of certainty, we would have to determine the Lyapunov time of the system. After this time lapses several times, the system is practically chaotic and thus unpredictable regardless of the similarity of initial conditions. But to determine this factor we would probably require some pretty complex computer simulations, which is why I think it wouldn't hurt to simply add a couple more seconds if the draw starts quickly.

                      Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
                      Texas
                      United States
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                      Posted: March 2, 2016, 7:21 am - IP Logged

                      2 words for all you randomness doubters: Chi Squared.

                      "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

                      ~Robert A. Heinlein

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                        Madison, WI
                        United States
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                        February 11, 2016
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                        Posted: March 2, 2016, 12:24 pm - IP Logged

                        2 words for all you randomness doubters: Chi Squared.

                        Are you referring to the people who doubt the lottery is random, or to the people who doubt the lottery isn't random?

                        What is a "randomness doubter"? just want to see where I fall before I google "chi squared"

                          SilverLion's avatar - 8ball

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                          Posted: March 2, 2016, 6:50 pm - IP Logged

                          I just had a thought.

                          Trying to See inside Random is like trying to set up a level a surveying instrument on a floating barge in the middle of a storm at a specific point in time.  If you could do that you might see the numbers when you looked in the optical plummet or where the plummet laser pointed.

                          don't think too hard.