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February 23, 2017
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The only strategy that is going to work to win a Keno jackpot is a long term strategy. You have to be willing to accept that there will be many drawings where there is absolutely no chance of winning.
While each drawing has 184,756 winning combinations there are over 1.6 trillion potential 10 digit combinations in 80/20 Keno. There are no patterns that occur which reduce potential number combinations down to a playable amount that appear on a daily much less monthly or even annual basis.
As I pointed out earlier if I break the 80 numbers up into group of 4 there are 184,756 combinations of the 20 sets. On average 1000 combinations of those 20 appear daily. This means if I focus on 1 fixed set on average I will have 2 attempts a year where I am choosing from a million different combinations of numbers. The results are only slightly better if I try to dynamically adjust each set on a daily basis.
Within that set on average there are 16 winning sets knocking the odds down from 1 in a million to about 1 in 65,000. If I apply more rules within that set I might be able to know it down to a consistent 1 in 10,000 that occurs consistently once per year.
If I increase the amount of money I'm willing to spend per drawing to 10 dollars then I'm looking at 1 in 1,000 once per year. Over the course of 10 years it goes down to 1 in 100. If I did not win back a single penny then I would have spent roughly 31K however on average I can expect to win back 30-40% of what I spent.
The reason why long term is the only play that works is because as random as the drawings are over time they still have to conform to a certain pattern. in the short term it is simply impossible to accurately predict what set of combinations are going to occur concurrently for 10 digits in an individual or even month long series of drawings because of the shear volume of combinations.
I have run thousands of simulations randomly picking numbers versus using a strategy and so far using a strategy has been the only one that with any sort of reasonable consistency produced a winner. But in all the strategies I had to be will to take a long term view.
Long Island, NY United States
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Quote: Originally posted by Novan60 on Jun 4, 2017
The only strategy that is going to work to win a Keno jackpot is a long term strategy. You have to be willing to accept that there will be many drawings where there is absolutely no chance of winning.
While each drawing has 184,756 winning combinations there are over 1.6 trillion potential 10 digit combinations in 80/20 Keno. There are no patterns that occur which reduce potential number combinations down to a playable amount that appear on a daily much less monthly or even annual basis.
As I pointed out earlier if I break the 80 numbers up into group of 4 there are 184,756 combinations of the 20 sets. On average 1000 combinations of those 20 appear daily. This means if I focus on 1 fixed set on average I will have 2 attempts a year where I am choosing from a million different combinations of numbers. The results are only slightly better if I try to dynamically adjust each set on a daily basis.
Within that set on average there are 16 winning sets knocking the odds down from 1 in a million to about 1 in 65,000. If I apply more rules within that set I might be able to know it down to a consistent 1 in 10,000 that occurs consistently once per year.
If I increase the amount of money I'm willing to spend per drawing to 10 dollars then I'm looking at 1 in 1,000 once per year. Over the course of 10 years it goes down to 1 in 100. If I did not win back a single penny then I would have spent roughly 31K however on average I can expect to win back 30-40% of what I spent.
The reason why long term is the only play that works is because as random as the drawings are over time they still have to conform to a certain pattern. in the short term it is simply impossible to accurately predict what set of combinations are going to occur concurrently for 10 digits in an individual or even month long series of drawings because of the shear volume of combinations.
I have run thousands of simulations randomly picking numbers versus using a strategy and so far using a strategy has been the only one that with any sort of reasonable consistency produced a winner. But in all the strategies I had to be will to take a long term view.
A long term strategy works. It's proven. Many players have won over time by playing the same numbers day after day. I change my numbers every day (in short) for good stategic reasons.
I merely suggest that you guys use the data (and it's interpratation) to develop effective stratgegys.
For example, datapiles study determined with certainty that around 4-5 numbers repeat each draw. Which numbers are those (amongst the 20 drawn) will those be? I have done extensive studying on that.
Why? Being able to accurately nail those likely to repeat puts you half way to the jackpot. Critically important a huge help in achieving your goal.
In short, my studies show that the numbers that usually repeat are those that have not appeared in the last draw or two. Understand?
This knowledge alone has helped me rack up many (6 of 10) and (7 of 10) prizes and at least break even and make a couple of bucks.
But think about it. With a (7 of 10) you are 70% there!
I am happy and supportive to continue to contribute.
United States
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February 23, 2017
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Quote: Originally posted by DownandDirty on Jun 4, 2017
A long term strategy works. It's proven. Many players have won over time by playing the same numbers day after day. I change my numbers every day (in short) for good stategic reasons.
I merely suggest that you guys use the data (and it's interpratation) to develop effective stratgegys.
For example, datapiles study determined with certainty that around 4-5 numbers repeat each draw. Which numbers are those (amongst the 20 drawn) will those be? I have done extensive studying on that.
Why? Being able to accurately nail those likely to repeat puts you half way to the jackpot. Critically important a huge help in achieving your goal.
In short, my studies show that the numbers that usually repeat are those that have not appeared in the last draw or two. Understand?
This knowledge alone has helped me rack up many (6 of 10) and (7 of 10) prizes and at least break even and make a couple of bucks.
But think about it. With a (7 of 10) you are 70% there!
I am happy and supportive to continue to contribute.
You are missing my point. It is easy to isolate a pattern for less than half of the 10 digits. If I were only trying to target for digits I could just look at the previous drawing and pick 4 of those numbers as 99% of the time a minimum of 4 numbers will appear in the next drawing. Usually it is about 5-6 that rollover occasionally going as high as 8 and in extremely rare instances going as high as 10.
This is also why strategies of picking 20 numbers and hoping the winning combination of 10 is within them don't work. And even if we get lucky enough to have the 10 within the subset of 20 we actually need for 16 of the 20 to be winning numbers in order to win with any consistency.
The fact that on average 5 numbers from the previous drawing rollover should not surprise us because every number has a 1 in 4 chance of appearing which means if I take a block of 20 numbers on average 5 should appear in each drawing. This means that if I just wanted to focus on the four from the 20 in the previous drawing I'd average a 1 in 969 chance of getting the right 4.
In 19 years worth of NY Pick 10 drawings the most any 4 digits have appears together is 46 times. The least is 3. The net average for all of the combinations is 21.6. That average is not a surprise because in total there are 1,581,580 different combinations of 4 with 80 numbers. Each drawing there are 4,845 different combinations of 4 which means that on average a set of four will appear once every 326 days.
The reason why I say just focusing on a subset of numbers is short sighted is because there are 201,359,550 combinations for the remaining digits for each one of the 1.5 million possible combinations of 4. Per drawing there are 8,008 combinations for the remaining winning 6 digits per drawing. That leaves odds at about 1 in 25,144 to pick the right 6. That brings that total odds up to about 1 in 2.5 million on an optimum day, 1 in 121,822,680 million on a day where only 4 numbers from the previous drawing rolled over.
The other thing to note is that even if we play the most frequent reoccurring 4 digit pattern and it maintains it's current frequency that would mean that on average it appears once every 154 days or roughly twice a year. Where have we seen that frequency before and with this you are only talking about 4 of the 10 digits.
This is why playing a specific set of numbers based on their frequency is not the best course of action. What yo have to do is look at what the setup is going into the drawing and then look at what pattern happens in the following X drawings and seeing if that pattern repeats itself with any kind of frequency.
In my example I grouped the digits in 20 sets of 4 sorted by the last time they appeared. While the exact same patterns do not repeat themselves certain trends do repeat themselves such as 2233 shows up in 83% of the drawings averaging about 100 winning combinations a day. 2233 represent two sets where the first number is the set was picked, two sets where the second digit was picks , 3 sets where the third digit was picked and 3 sets where the fourth digit was picked.
So whatever strategy you are going to follow make sure it is for all of the numbers, not just a portion of them.
Belgium
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March 26, 2016
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You only need ten so you can play 1 to 35 only. Average 10 will be drawn, and sometimes more. You can also stick to 36 to 70. In case that you are still with the old keno, you can do 1 to 40. If you chase like 5/5, you have enough with a fourth of the numbers. You're stuck, so, step back to smaller.