Quote: Originally posted by Player649 on Jun 23, 2025
Something to be aware of with guaranteed wheels. A direct comparison between guaranteed wheel versus non-guaranteed.
Software: CoverMaster
Lottery: 649
Numbers: 20
Ticket size: 6
Guaranteed win: 3
Hits required: 4
Tickets: 40
Wheel name: 3W 4H 20N 40T (g).txt (which means: win 3 if you hit 4 out of 20 numbers in 40 tickets; g stands for guarantee)
Wheel with guarantee
1,2,3,7,13,20
1,2,5,7,16,19
1,2,6,9,12,17
1,2,8,10,17,20
1,3,4,11,12,17
1,3,4,13,14,17
1,3,10,13,15,17
1,4,6,10,19,20
1,4,7,8,9,20
1,5,9,11,12,18
1,5,10,12,15,20
1,6,8,13,16,19
1,8,11,14,15,18
2,3,4,11,12,18
2,3,9,16,18,19
2,4,5,7,15,20
2,4,5,8,16,17
2,5,11,13,14,15
2,6,8,10,14,20
2,7,9,11,13,15
2,9,10,14,18,19
3,4,5,9,10,19
3,5,6,8,12,15
3,5,7,8,9,16
3,6,7,17,18,20
3,8,11,12,19,20
3,9,11,14,16,20
4,6,10,11,13,16
4,7,12,13,15,19
4,8,12,14,18,19
4,9,10,15,16,18
5,6,7,10,11,18
5,6,9,13,14,18
5,13,17,18,19,20
6,7,11,14,15,19
6,15,16,17,18,20
7,8,10,12,13,18
7,10,12,14,16,17
8,9,11,15,17,19
9,12,13,15,16,20
Wheel evaluation report
Wheel:
1,2,3,7,13,20
1,2,5,7,16,19
1,2,6,9,12,17
1,2,8,10,17,20
1,3,4,11,12,17
1,3,4,13,14,17
1,3,10,13,15,17
1,4,6,10,19,20
1,4,7,8,9,20
1,5,9,11,12,18
1,5,10,12,15,20
1,6,8,13,16,19
1,8,11,14,15,18
2,3,4,11,12,18
2,3,9,16,18,19
2,4,5,7,15,20
2,4,5,8,16,17
2,5,11,13,14,15
2,6,8,10,14,20
2,7,9,11,13,15
2,9,10,14,18,19
3,4,5,9,10,19
3,5,6,8,12,15
3,5,7,8,9,16
3,6,7,17,18,20
3,8,11,12,19,20
3,9,11,14,16,20
4,6,10,11,13,16
4,7,12,13,15,19
4,8,12,14,18,19
4,9,10,15,16,18
5,6,7,10,11,18
5,6,9,13,14,18
5,13,17,18,19,20
6,7,11,14,15,19
6,15,16,17,18,20
7,8,10,12,13,18
7,10,12,14,16,17
8,9,11,15,17,19
9,12,13,15,16,20
Wheel parameters:
Lowest number: 1
Highest number: 20
Lines in wheel: 40
Frequency of numbers:
Number: 1 - 13 times
Number: 2 - 12 times
Number: 3 - 12 times
Number: 4 - 12 times
Number: 5 - 12 times
Number: 6 - 11 times
Number: 7 - 12 times
Number: 8 - 12 times
Number: 9 - 13 times
Number: 10 - 12 times
Number: 11 - 12 times
Number: 12 - 12 times
Number: 13 - 12 times
Number: 14 - 10 times
Number: 15 - 13 times
Number: 16 - 11 times
Number: 17 - 11 times
Number: 18 - 13 times
Number: 19 - 12 times
Number: 20 - 13 times
Avg frequency: 12.0
Wheel is imbalanced
Numbers in wheel: 20
Avg hit rate: 2.45
Most probable hit range: 1.45 -> 3.45
Wheel win potential:
Hit 6 numbers:
Combinations: 38760
Win: 6 - 40 (0.1%)
Win: 5 - 3360 (8.7%)
Win: 4 - 54600 (140.9%)
Win: 3 - 291200 (751.3%)
Win: 2 - 600600
Win: 1 - 480480
Win: 0 - 120120
Total wins (3+): 349200
Ticket conversion ratio: 22.5%
Hit 5 numbers:
Combinations: 15504
Win: 5 - 240 (1.5%)
Win: 4 - 8400 (54.2%)
Win: 3 - 72800 (469.6%)
Win: 2 - 218400
Win: 1 - 240240
Win: 0 - 80080
Total wins (3+): 81440
Ticket conversion ratio: 13.1%
Hit 4 numbers:
Combinations: 4845
Win: 4 - 600 (12.4%)
Win: 3 - 11200 (231.2%)
Win: 2 - 54600
Win: 1 - 87360
Win: 0 - 40040
Total wins (3+): 11800
Ticket conversion ratio: 6.1%
Hit 3 numbers:
Combinations: 1140
Win: 3 - 800 (70.2%)
Win: 2 - 8400
Win: 1 - 21840
Win: 0 - 14560
Total wins (3): 800
Ticket conversion ratio: 1.8%
Avg ticket conversion ratio: 18.4%
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Guaranteed wheels rely on strict way of number distribution among tickets. Upset it and they will loose the guarantee.
So I messed up with the original guaranteed wheel and changed the order of distribution in several tickets. It lost its guarantee. Then I ran it through the test again.
Wheel name: 3W 4H 20N 40T (ng).txt (now the meaning is different: target 3 if you hit 4 out of 20 numbers in 40 tickets; ng is no guarantee)
Wheel altered (no guarantee)
1,2,5,7,16,19
1,2,6,9,12,17
1,2,8,10,17,20
1,3,4,11,12,17
1,3,10,13,15,17
1,4,6,10,19,20
1,4,7,8,9,20
1,5,10,12,15,20
1,6,8,13,16,19
1,8,11,14,15,18
2,3,4,11,12,18
2,3,7,10,13,20
2,3,9,16,18,19
2,4,5,7,15,20
2,4,5,8,16,17
2,5,11,13,14,15
2,5,13,17,19,20
2,6,8,10,14,20
2,7,9,11,13,15
2,9,10,14,18,19
3,4,5,9,10,19
3,4,9,13,14,17
3,5,6,8,12,15
3,5,7,8,9,16
3,6,7,17,18,20
3,8,11,12,19,20
3,9,11,14,16,20
4,6,10,11,13,16
4,7,12,13,15,19
4,8,12,14,18,19
4,9,10,15,16,18
5,6,7,10,11,18
5,6,13,14,18,20
5,8,10,12,13,18
5,9,11,12,15,18
6,7,11,14,15,19
6,15,16,17,18,20
7,10,12,14,16,17
8,9,11,15,17,19
8,9,12,13,16,20
Wheel evaluation report
Wheel:
1,2,5,7,16,19
1,2,6,9,12,17
1,2,8,10,17,20
1,3,4,11,12,17
1,3,10,13,15,17
1,4,6,10,19,20
1,4,7,8,9,20
1,5,10,12,15,20
1,6,8,13,16,19
1,8,11,14,15,18
2,3,4,11,12,18
2,3,7,10,13,20
2,3,9,16,18,19
2,4,5,7,15,20
2,4,5,8,16,17
2,5,11,13,14,15
2,5,13,17,19,20
2,6,8,10,14,20
2,7,9,11,13,15
2,9,10,14,18,19
3,4,5,9,10,19
3,4,9,13,14,17
3,5,6,8,12,15
3,5,7,8,9,16
3,6,7,17,18,20
3,8,11,12,19,20
3,9,11,14,16,20
4,6,10,11,13,16
4,7,12,13,15,19
4,8,12,14,18,19
4,9,10,15,16,18
5,6,7,10,11,18
5,6,13,14,18,20
5,8,10,12,13,18
5,9,11,12,15,18
6,7,11,14,15,19
6,15,16,17,18,20
7,10,12,14,16,17
8,9,11,15,17,19
8,9,12,13,16,20
Wheel parameters:
Lowest number: 1
Highest number: 20
Lines in wheel: 40
Frequency of numbers:
Number: 1 - 10 times
Number: 2 - 13 times
Number: 3 - 12 times
Number: 4 - 12 times
Number: 5 - 13 times
Number: 6 - 11 times
Number: 7 - 11 times
Number: 8 - 13 times
Number: 9 - 13 times
Number: 10 - 13 times
Number: 11 - 12 times
Number: 12 - 12 times
Number: 13 - 12 times
Number: 14 - 10 times
Number: 15 - 13 times
Number: 16 - 11 times
Number: 17 - 11 times
Number: 18 - 12 times
Number: 19 - 12 times
Number: 20 - 14 times
Avg frequency: 12.0
Wheel is imbalanced
Numbers in wheel: 20
Avg hit rate: 2.45
Most probable hit range: 1.45 -> 3.45
Wheel win potential:
Hit 6 numbers:
Combinations: 38760
Win: 6 - 40 (0.1%)
Win: 5 - 3360 (8.7%)
Win: 4 - 54600 (140.9%)
Win: 3 - 291200 (751.3%)
Win: 2 - 600600
Win: 1 - 480480
Win: 0 - 120120
Total wins (3+): 349200
Ticket conversion ratio: 22.5%
Hit 5 numbers:
Combinations: 15504
Win: 5 - 240 (1.5%)
Win: 4 - 8400 (54.2%)
Win: 3 - 72800 (469.6%)
Win: 2 - 218400
Win: 1 - 240240
Win: 0 - 80080
Total wins (3+): 81440
Ticket conversion ratio: 13.1%
Hit 4 numbers:
Combinations: 4845
Win: 4 - 600 (12.4%)
Win: 3 - 11200 (231.2%)
Win: 2 - 54600
Win: 1 - 87360
Win: 0 - 40040
Total wins (3+): 11800
Ticket conversion ratio: 6.1%
Hit 3 numbers:
Combinations: 1140
Win: 3 - 800 (70.2%)
Win: 2 - 8400
Win: 1 - 21840
Win: 0 - 14560
Total wins (3): 800
Ticket conversion ratio: 1.8%
Avg ticket conversion ratio: 18.4%
And there is no difference in the results whatsoever. Which means that guaranteed and non-guaranteed wheels have exactly the same winning potential and the distribution of numbers among the tickets does not make a iota of difference. Which, in turn, means, that guaranteed wheels hold no statistical advantage over non-guaranteed ones. Guarantees are just a meaningless decoration.