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Quote: Originally posted by Player649 on Sep 10, 2025
You made quite a number of correct observations. I would like to add some extras that also matter.
Predicting numbers in lotteries in not only possible but, actually, quite easy.
Predictability depends on 2 principal factors:
1) The number of elements in the pool from which you predict; the smaller the pool the easier to predict.
2) The number of elements you predict at the same time; the larger the number the greater the accuracy.
Randomness does not affect these 2 principles; they are always the deciding factors regardless of what selection scheme (including randomness) you use.
In jackpot lotteries you always predict groups of numbers. The smallest group is the size of the lottery single ticket, the largest - all numbers played in the lottery.
Each group size has an expected prediction (I call it hit) ratio: the average of numbers guessed correctly within the group. This average can easily be calculated according to this formula:
A/B = C/D
where each letter stands for:
A = all numbers in lottery
B = numbers drawn in lottery
C = size of your group
D = average hit ratio
It is generally a good idea to play group sizes with average hit ratio at least matching the lowest prize level in the lottery; in Mega-Sena this would be a group of 40.
In your example of Mega-Sena, for the 15-numbers group the average hit ratio will be 1.5. Since for the smallest winner you need 4 numbers the prospects of this group size for winning is rather slim at best.
But this not the point. You can use the average hit ratio as a yardstick to measure your prediction method efficiency. The more you score above that average the better your predictions are. You can measure at different time frames and compare. You can measure different prediction methodologies (for the same group size) and compare. Finally, you can computerize and automate the whole selection/comparison process to get the best of the best for actual playing. There is no guarantee that what you select is going to perform the same way in the near future but the actual probability of better than average performance is significantly increased as documented by your comparison statistics. Playing lotteries is about maximizing your probabilities not getting guarantees.
Why is it so important to maximize the number of hits whatever group size you play? Dumb question. You don't hit you don't win.
"Playing lotteries is about maximizing your probabilities not getting guarantees."
Studying past draws is a waste of time. Each drawing is an independent random event. The only way to increase the probability of winning is to buy more tickets.
That being said, if you buy an enormous number of tickets, you can increase the probability of winning a lower prize by ensuring your picks are spread out over the matrix. The downside is that if you do win a lower prize, it's less likely you'll win on multiple tickets, compared to making a lot of picks that contain the same numbers.
This is easier to demonstrate with multi-card keno. Let's say you want to play the four spot game and you play two cards. You could make the two sets of four numbers all different from each other, or you could have the two cards contain some of the same numbers.
If you make the two cards have numbers different from each other (e.g., 1,2,3,4 and 21,22,23,24), the probability of getting at least one 4 spot hit is 0.61%. The probability of getting at least one 3 spot hit is 8.4%.
But if you put three numbers on both cards and then give each card a fourth number that is different (e.g., 1,42,43,44 and 42,43,44,67), the probability of getting at least one 4 spot hit falls to 0.55%. The probability of getting at least one 3 spot hit falls to 7.1%.
Does this mean that playing two cards with concurrent numbers is automatically a bad idea? No it does not. It's because with overlapping numbers, if you get at least 3 of 4 on one card, it's more likely you'll get hits on the other card.
The correct way to analyze this is to calculate the expected values of the number of 3 and 4 spot hits. The expected value of the number of four spot hits when you play two cards with different numbers is 0.006127. The expected value of the number of three spot hits is 0.086496.
If you play two cards with overlapping numbers, the expected value of the number of four and three spot hits is exactly the same. The probability of getting a win is lower, but that's made up by the fact that the probability of getting multiple wins from the different cards in the same drawing is higher.
The expected value cannot be changed by your selection of numbers. The expected value is a function of the paytable, which is set by the lottery, and you have zero control over it.
The only thing you can do is choose how much money to throw at the game, and if you buy a lot of tickets, you can spread out the numbers for a higher chance of winning lower prizes on fewer tickets or not spread them out as much for a smaller chance of winning lower prizes on more tickets. But in the end, a payback percentage of X% is what you are going to win, on average, regardless of what numbers you pick. That cannot be changed.
bgonçalves Brasil
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To analyze repetitive patterns in the lottery, it's essential to understand that, despite randomness, the human mind seeks connections and structures. There are different approaches to creating an analysis model, combining mathematical and statistical concepts.
Approach 1: Frequency and Delay Analysis
This is the most straightforward and popular approach, based on simple statistics from previous draws.
Number Frequency: Create a table that tracks how many times each number has been drawn. Identify the "hot" numbers (those that come out most frequently) and the "cold" numbers (those that come out least frequently). The assumption is that hot numbers are more likely to continue to come out, or that cold numbers are "delayed" and about to be drawn.
Number Delay: Calculate the number of draws since the last time a specific number was drawn. Numbers with a long delay period are often seen as "close to being drawn" by some players.
Approach 2: Pattern and Combination Analysis
This approach goes beyond individual numbers and focuses on how they combine.
Pair and Triple Patterns: Analyze how often certain pairs or triplets of numbers appear together. For example, how often the combination 05-12 or 22-45-51 has been drawn. If a group of numbers frequently appears together, this can be considered a "pattern."
Sum Patterns: Calculate the sum of all numbers drawn in each draw. Analyze the most common sum range. For example, in a 6-number lottery from 1 to 60, the sum is usually between 100 and 200. Betting on combinations with a sum outside this range is statistically less likely.
Odd and Even Patterns: Analyze the proportion of odd and even numbers drawn in each draw. For example, most lottery draws have a combination of 3 even numbers and 3 odd numbers, or 4 even numbers and 2 odd numbers. Combinations with only even numbers or only odd numbers are extremely rare.
Approach 3: Geometric and Fractal Analysis
This is a more conceptual approach, inspired by patterns in nature, but with limited application in a random system like the lottery.
Graphical Visualization: Plot the drawn numbers on a grid or spiral (such as the Ulam spiral). The idea is to look for visual alignments or groupings that might indicate a pattern. Although this is more of a visual curiosity, it can yield interesting insights.
"Cluster" Models: Instead of treating numbers linearly, they can be grouped into "clusters" based on proximity. For example, numbers 01 to 10 form one cluster, 11 to 20 another, and so on. Analyze the frequency with which clusters are represented in the draws. For example, it is common for at least one number from each cluster to be drawn.
Pennsylvania United States
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April 6, 2003
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Quote: Originally posted by Tucker Black on Sep 11, 2025
"Playing lotteries is about maximizing your probabilities not getting guarantees."
Studying past draws is a waste of time. Each drawing is an independent random event. The only way to increase the probability of winning is to buy more tickets.
That being said, if you buy an enormous number of tickets, you can increase the probability of winning a lower prize by ensuring your picks are spread out over the matrix. The downside is that if you do win a lower prize, it's less likely you'll win on multiple tickets, compared to making a lot of picks that contain the same numbers.
This is easier to demonstrate with multi-card keno. Let's say you want to play the four spot game and you play two cards. You could make the two sets of four numbers all different from each other, or you could have the two cards contain some of the same numbers.
If you make the two cards have numbers different from each other (e.g., 1,2,3,4 and 21,22,23,24), the probability of getting at least one 4 spot hit is 0.61%. The probability of getting at least one 3 spot hit is 8.4%.
But if you put three numbers on both cards and then give each card a fourth number that is different (e.g., 1,42,43,44 and 42,43,44,67), the probability of getting at least one 4 spot hit falls to 0.55%. The probability of getting at least one 3 spot hit falls to 7.1%.
Does this mean that playing two cards with concurrent numbers is automatically a bad idea? No it does not. It's because with overlapping numbers, if you get at least 3 of 4 on one card, it's more likely you'll get hits on the other card.
The correct way to analyze this is to calculate the expected values of the number of 3 and 4 spot hits. The expected value of the number of four spot hits when you play two cards with different numbers is 0.006127. The expected value of the number of three spot hits is 0.086496.
If you play two cards with overlapping numbers, the expected value of the number of four and three spot hits is exactly the same. The probability of getting a win is lower, but that's made up by the fact that the probability of getting multiple wins from the different cards in the same drawing is higher.
The expected value cannot be changed by your selection of numbers. The expected value is a function of the paytable, which is set by the lottery, and you have zero control over it.
The only thing you can do is choose how much money to throw at the game, and if you buy a lot of tickets, you can spread out the numbers for a higher chance of winning lower prizes on fewer tickets or not spread them out as much for a smaller chance of winning lower prizes on more tickets. But in the end, a payback percentage of X% is what you are going to win, on average, regardless of what numbers you pick. That cannot be changed.
"Studying past draws is a waste of time. Each drawing is an independent random event. The only way to increase the probability of winning is to buy more tickets."
It is true that each drawing is an independent random event. Since I mostly play the pick 3, it is also independent by position.
Also, more tickets is the only way to change the odds. But I am "frugal" so I would rather pick 1 combo than 10 or more, as the draw will still be from 1,000 combinations regardless of how many would be covered by multiple tickets.
I also know that anytime I had a win using any of my multiple discarded systems that it was coincidental.
I do, however disagree that studying past draws is a waste of time. I know there is no magic bullet algorithm that will ever consistently predict the next random event, but it is an enjoyable hobby to try anyway, if for no other reason than to see for yourself that any system fails to be profitable over time. When you learn to use a spreadsheet or a programming language to be able to answer your own questions, to clean sheet how to take your idea from raw concept to functional code, it is good experience. It is good practice for data science because you actually get to apply techniques to something you are interested in rather than the data sets included with R or available on Kaggle.
In this hobby I have made some real coding progress, even though I already know up front it is an impossible problem. Many of the concepts, like reading from and writing to csv files, using data frames instead of long lists, modular coding, revision control with git, etc. are directly applicable in other areas such as retrieving and analyzing data from cryptocurrency blockchains or stock market data.
As long as one is playing responsibly and having fun with it, they only give you the rules of the game and the draw history to work with, so why not try to use what was given?
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"The expected value cannot be changed by your selection of numbers. The expected value is a function of the paytable, which is set by the lottery, and you have zero control over it." - Tucker Black
Not that you are saying this, but I've noticed something related on this forum often comes up. If we are talking about EV, shouldn't we also be talking about finding the best paytable? This morning someone posted they would choose pick 5 as their lifetime game of choice in another thread, and their reasoning was that they liked $50,000 to One. Why? Is it taboo to talk about online platforms that pay 90,000:1?
United States
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"In this hobby I have made some real coding progress, even though I already know up front it is an impossible problem. Many of the concepts, like reading from and writing to csv files, using data frames instead of long lists, modular coding, revision control with git, etc. are directly applicable in other areas such as retrieving and analyzing data from cryptocurrency blockchains or stock market data. " - hypersoniq
Colorado United States
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February 25, 2016
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Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on Sep 11, 2025
"Studying past draws is a waste of time. Each drawing is an independent random event. The only way to increase the probability of winning is to buy more tickets."
It is true that each drawing is an independent random event. Since I mostly play the pick 3, it is also independent by position.
Also, more tickets is the only way to change the odds. But I am "frugal" so I would rather pick 1 combo than 10 or more, as the draw will still be from 1,000 combinations regardless of how many would be covered by multiple tickets.
I also know that anytime I had a win using any of my multiple discarded systems that it was coincidental.
I do, however disagree that studying past draws is a waste of time. I know there is no magic bullet algorithm that will ever consistently predict the next random event, but it is an enjoyable hobby to try anyway, if for no other reason than to see for yourself that any system fails to be profitable over time. When you learn to use a spreadsheet or a programming language to be able to answer your own questions, to clean sheet how to take your idea from raw concept to functional code, it is good experience. It is good practice for data science because you actually get to apply techniques to something you are interested in rather than the data sets included with R or available on Kaggle.
In this hobby I have made some real coding progress, even though I already know up front it is an impossible problem. Many of the concepts, like reading from and writing to csv files, using data frames instead of long lists, modular coding, revision control with git, etc. are directly applicable in other areas such as retrieving and analyzing data from cryptocurrency blockchains or stock market data.
As long as one is playing responsibly and having fun with it, they only give you the rules of the game and the draw history to work with, so why not try to use what was given?
Colorado United States
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February 25, 2016
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Quote: Originally posted by LottoVibes on Sep 11, 2025
"The expected value cannot be changed by your selection of numbers. The expected value is a function of the paytable, which is set by the lottery, and you have zero control over it." - Tucker Black
Not that you are saying this, but I've noticed something related on this forum often comes up. If we are talking about EV, shouldn't we also be talking about finding the best paytable? This morning someone posted they would choose pick 5 as their lifetime game of choice in another thread, and their reasoning was that they liked $50,000 to One. Why? Is it taboo to talk about online platforms that pay 90,000:1?
EV is the most important thing I consider, along with price and odds of winning. It's why I almost never play the draw games because the return is just terrible. The scratch offs pay back more (in Colorado).
700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center United States
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September 1, 2019
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Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on Sep 11, 2025
"Studying past draws is a waste of time. Each drawing is an independent random event. The only way to increase the probability of winning is to buy more tickets."
It is true that each drawing is an independent random event. Since I mostly play the pick 3, it is also independent by position.
Also, more tickets is the only way to change the odds. But I am "frugal" so I would rather pick 1 combo than 10 or more, as the draw will still be from 1,000 combinations regardless of how many would be covered by multiple tickets.
I also know that anytime I had a win using any of my multiple discarded systems that it was coincidental.
I do, however disagree that studying past draws is a waste of time. I know there is no magic bullet algorithm that will ever consistently predict the next random event, but it is an enjoyable hobby to try anyway, if for no other reason than to see for yourself that any system fails to be profitable over time. When you learn to use a spreadsheet or a programming language to be able to answer your own questions, to clean sheet how to take your idea from raw concept to functional code, it is good experience. It is good practice for data science because you actually get to apply techniques to something you are interested in rather than the data sets included with R or available on Kaggle.
In this hobby I have made some real coding progress, even though I already know up front it is an impossible problem. Many of the concepts, like reading from and writing to csv files, using data frames instead of long lists, modular coding, revision control with git, etc. are directly applicable in other areas such as retrieving and analyzing data from cryptocurrency blockchains or stock market data.
As long as one is playing responsibly and having fun with it, they only give you the rules of the game and the draw history to work with, so why not try to use what was given?
"Also, more tickets is the only Also, more tickets is the only way to change the only way odds. to change the odds."
There ya gooe..,cauze Only Probability Math can and haz done THAT..
700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
