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Probability of a rollover in PB and MM

Topic closed. 204 replies. Last post 12 years ago by Jake649.

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Canada
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November 2, 2003
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Posted: March 11, 2004, 7:31 pm - IP Logged

Lottobuddy,

Where do you get the actual annuity and cash values of the Powerball jackpots that you post on your site?

Thanks,
Jake

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    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #3457
    January 22, 2004
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    Posted: March 13, 2004, 1:36 am - IP Logged

    The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over on 3/12/04 and is now $27 million annuity dollars.  The cash jackpot has jumped from $12.1 million dollars to $16.4 million dollars.

    This means the lottery is projecting 13.6 million sales for this draw:  This translates into a 90% probability of a rollover, a 9% chance of there being one winner, a 0.5% chance of two winners, and a 0.02% chance of there being three winners.

    Good luck.

      LottoBuddy's avatar - tails

      Canada
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      February 15, 2004
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      Posted: March 14, 2004, 12:08 pm - IP Logged
      Quote: O
        Jake649's avatar - scene sunovermountains.jpg

        Canada
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        November 2, 2003
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        Posted: March 14, 2004, 3:57 pm - IP Logged
        Quote: Originally posted by LottoBuddy on March 14, 2004


        By the way, Jake649, I was about to buy a Mass Millions ticket subscription over the phone when the $50 million positive-return jackpot was finally won.



        LottBuddy,

        Do you know if they would have sold you a subscription even though you are not a resident of Mass? In Ontario (and I thought all jurisdictions) you had to be resident to buy a subscription.

        Thanks,
        Jake


          China
          Member #3032
          December 16, 2003
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          Posted: March 14, 2004, 8:35 pm - IP Logged
          Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on March 13, 2004



          The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over on 3/12/04 and is now $27 million annuity dollars.  The cash jackpot has jumped from $12.1 million dollars to $16.4 million dollars.

          This means the lottery is projecting 13.6 million sales for this draw:  This translates into a 90% probability of a rollover, a 9% chance of there being one winner, a 0.5% chance of two winners, and a 0.02% chance of there being three winners.

          Good luck.





          starting to agree!it just matches the chane percentage of working out the winning number here on my copmuter

            China
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            December 16, 2003
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            Posted: March 14, 2004, 8:39 pm - IP Logged
            Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on March 13, 2004



            The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over on 3/12/04 and is now $27 million annuity dollars.  The cash jackpot has jumped from $12.1 million dollars to $16.4 million dollars.

            This means the lottery is projecting 13.6 million sales for this draw:  This translates into a 90% probability of a rollover, a 9% chance of there being one winner, a 0.5% chance of two winners, and a 0.02% chance of there being three winners.

            Good luck.





            starting to agree!it just matches the chane percentage of working out the winning number here on my copmuter
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              New Jersey
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              January 22, 2004
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              Posted: March 15, 2004, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

              The Powerball has, of course, been won and the jackpot is once again $10,000,000 annuity dollars.  I assume, consistent with the information on Lottobuddy's site, that a $10,000,000 minimum annuity jackpot will represent roughly $12.5 million in sales.  On this basis the probability that the next jackpot will rollover again is 90%.  The probability of there being one winner is 9%, two winners, 0.5% and three winners, 0.02%.

              Good luck.

                LottoBuddy's avatar - tails

                Canada
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                Posted: March 15, 2004, 11:22 pm - IP Logged

                Since Powerball's base $5.6 million cash jackpot falls on a Wednesday instead of a busier Saturday, I estimate the sales to be less than 11 million tickets.  Looking at the Wednesday, February 11 data, sales for the $7.2 million cash jackpot was only $10,765,848, which was 13% less than the sales for the previous Saturday's base jackpot.  But as prob987 implied before, the IMprobability percentages don't change significantly, e.g., P(0) = 91.3% and P(1) = 8.3%.

                Has anybody bothered to calculate how low the expected payouts are for the Mega Millions and Powerball base jackpots?  A possible application of prob987's statistical analysis is that regular lottery players should allocate more of their lottery budget on the bigger jackpots (when all the previous losers are subsidizing your higher expected payout) and not buy more than one ticket for the base draw.

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                  New Jersey
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                  Posted: March 16, 2004, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

                  Lottobuddy, I have no problem with your numbers, and expect that they are probably a little better than mine.  We'll see on your website on Thursday.

                    The expectation values of the early jackpots are extraordinarily low.  Jake649 and many other of us had a nice discussion of expectation values on a thread found here.  Calculating expectation values was my original reason for looking at the Poisson distribution as applied to lotteries.  My pleasure at the revelation provided by this way of looking at lotteries motivated me to start this thread.

                  I have always played progressively larger amounts on bigger jackpots.  I don't play jackpots less than $20 million at all usually, though occassionally I'll buy a single quickpick for the hell of it, particularly if there are no other bigger jackpots around.  I live at the NJ/PA border so it's easy for me to switch between PB and MM.

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                    New Jersey
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                    Posted: March 17, 2004, 8:26 am - IP Logged

                    The Megamillions jackport has rolled over, with the cash value rising to 21.9 million from 16.4 million.  The annuity value has risen from $27 million to $36 million.

                    The probability of a rollover is 88%.  The probability of a single winner is 11%.  The probability of two winners is 0.7% and of three winners 0.03%.

                    Good luck!

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                      New Jersey
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                      Posted: March 18, 2004, 9:40 am - IP Logged

                      The Powerball  jackpot is has rolled over and is now $12,000,000 annuity dollars.  I estimate that this jackpot will have $12.5 million in sales based on experience with early jackpots where the minimum jackpot sizes complicates direct calculation.  On this basis the probability that the next jackpot will rollover again is 90%.  The probability of there being one winner is 9%, two winners, 0.5% and three winners, 0.02%.

                      Lottobuddy may post small refinements based on history with which I am most likely to agree.

                      Good luck.

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                        New Jersey
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                        Posted: March 20, 2004, 8:23 am - IP Logged

                        The Megamillions jackpot for March 19, 2004 has rolled over again.  The annuity jackpot has risen from $36 million to $43 million.  The size of the cash value jackpot has risen from $21.9 million to $26.2 million.  This implies the lottery is expecting about 13.5 million sales on this draw.  The probability that jackpot will roll over again on Tuesday is 90%.  The probability of there being one winner is 9%.  The probabiliyt of two winners is about 0.5% and the probability of three winners is 0.02%.

                        Good luck.

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                          New Jersey
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                          January 22, 2004
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                          Posted: March 21, 2004, 5:34 am - IP Logged

                          The powerball jackpot has rolled over and has now risen to $18 million annuity dollars from $12 million dollars.  The cash value has increased from $6.7 million to $10.3 million.  This implies the lottery is expecting about $11 million in sales.  The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 91%.  The probability it will have one winner is 8%, two winners, 0.4%, and three winners, 0.1%

                          Good luck

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                            New Jersey
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                            January 22, 2004
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                            Posted: March 21, 2004, 9:56 am - IP Logged

                            BTW, MM is tracking very close to its behavior during the run up to the $239 million dollar jackpot that remains unclaimed.  If it continues to maintain this track so, the probability that the current run will go that high is roughly 6% right now.  That probability will climb, of course, with each rollover.  Were this (still unlikely) dvent to happen, it would occur in about one month's time.

                            Good luck.

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                              New Jersey
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                              Posted: March 24, 2004, 6:16 am - IP Logged

                              The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $43 million to 53 million annuity dollars.  The cash jackpot has risen from 26.2 million dollars to 32.4 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 19.5 million sales.  The probability of another rollover is 86.5%, for one winner, 12.5%, for two winners 1% and for three winners 0.04%

                              Good luck.

                                 
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