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Probability of a rollover in PB and MM

Topic closed. 204 replies. Last post 12 years ago by Jake649.

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Posted: March 25, 2004, 5:52 am - IP Logged

The powerball jackpot has rolled over and has now risen to $25 million annuity dollars from $18 million dollars.  The cash value has increased from $10.3 million to $14.1 million.  This implies the lottery is expecting about $11.6 million in sales.  The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 91%.  The probability it will have one winner is 9%, two winners, 0.4%, and three winners, 0.1%

Good luck

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    Posted: March 26, 2004, 11:19 am - IP Logged

    The Megamillions jackpots in this particular series of rollovers is slightly larger than the last record breaking (see Jake649's thread) series of rollovers culminating in the $239 million dollar jackpot.  Even so, the series now underway is closely tracking the previous run, about $2,000,000 annuity dollars greater on each rollover. 

    This is way probably premature, and very loose, but the probability that the $239 jackpot will be matched is very approximately about 17% over all.  The probability that the record will be exceeded by an additional rollover is about 7% overall.

    Each rollover when actually realized will of course increase the odds of record breaking jackpots.

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      Posted: March 27, 2004, 3:21 am - IP Logged

      The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $53 million to 63 million annuity dollars.  The cash jackpot has risen from 32.4 million dollars to 38.4 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 19 million dollars in sales.  The probability of another rollover is 87%, for one winner, 12%, for two winners 0.9% and for three winners 0.04%

      Good luck.

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        Posted: March 28, 2004, 3:49 am - IP Logged

        The powerball jackpot has rolled over and has now risen to $31 million annuity dollars from $25 million annuity dollars.  The cash value has increased from $14.1 million to $17.6 million.  This implies the lottery is expecting about $10.7 million in sales.  The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 91%.  The probability it will have one winner is 8%, two winners, 0.4%, and three winners, 0.1%

        Good luck

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          Posted: March 31, 2004, 12:21 am - IP Logged

          The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $63 million to 75 million annuity dollars.  The cash jackpot has risen from 38.4 million dollars to 44.7 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 19.8 million dollars in sales.  The probability of another rollover is 86%, for one winner, 13%, for two winners 0.93% and for three winners 0.05%.  Good luck.

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            Posted: March 31, 2004, 10:17 am - IP Logged

            The MegaMillions continues to track (actually beating it slightly) its behavior in the the last large jackpot, where it rose to $239 million.  If it continues to do so, it is possible to make a crude estimate of how likely it is to meet or exceed that figure.  The probability of matching (approximately) that figure is now about 20%.  The probability of exceeding it is now about 9%.  The probability that the jackpot will dventually exceed $100,000,000 is 71%

            These numbers are derived by taking the product of all of the p(0) poisson calculation results based on the historical sales (at lottoreport.com).

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              Posted: March 31, 2004, 10:28 pm - IP Logged

              The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 3/31/04 and has now risen to $39 million annuity dollars from $31 million annuity dollars.  The cash value has increased from $17.6 million to $22.1 million.  This implies the lottery is expecting about $13.77 million in sales.  The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 89%.  The probability it will have one winner is 10%, two winners, 0.6%, and three winners, 0.2%

              Good luck

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                Posted: April 3, 2004, 7:38 am - IP Logged

                The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $76 million to 90 million annuity dollars.  The cash jackpot has risen from 44.7 million dollars to 52.6 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 24.9 million dollars in sales.  The probability of another rollover is 85%, for one winner, 14%, for two winners 1.1% and for three winners 0.06%.  Good luck.

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                  Posted: April 3, 2004, 7:32 pm - IP Logged

                  The Megamillions has begun to rise slightly faster than it did during the last run up to its record-breaking $239 million jackpot.  Even so, modelling based on that run has some value.  I estimate that the probability of meeting that record is today around 23%.  The probability of exceeding that jackport is roughly 10%.

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                    Posted: April 4, 2004, 3:18 am - IP Logged

                    The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/03/04 and has now risen to $47 million annuity dollars from $39 million annuity dollars.  The cash value has increased from $22.1 million to $26.1 million.  This implies the lottery is expecting about $12.2million in sales.  The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 90%.  The probability it will have one winner is 9%, two winners, 0.5%, and three winners, 0.2%

                    Good luck

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                      Posted: April 7, 2004, 6:02 am - IP Logged

                      The MM jackpot has rolled over again and risen from $90 million to 105 million annuity dollars.  The cash jackpot has risen from 52.6 million dollars to 61.0 million dollars meaning the anticipates about 26.8 million dollars in sales.  The probability of another rollover is 82%, for one winner, 16%, for two winners 1.6% and for three winners 0.11%, and four winners, 0.01%. 

                      Modelled (crudely) on the last $239 million run, there is a 27% that the lottery will again go that high. and a 12% chance it will exceed that figure.

                      Good luck.

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                        Posted: April 7, 2004, 10:32 pm - IP Logged

                        The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/07/04 and has now risen to $57 illion annuity dollars from 47 milliion annuity dollars.  The cash value has increased from $26.1 million to $31.4 million.  This implies the lottery is expecting about $16.2 million in sales.  The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 88.7%.  The probability it will have one winner is 10.6%, two winners, 0.6%, and three winners, 0.3%

                        Good luck!

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                          Posted: April 11, 2004, 8:41 am - IP Logged

                          The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/10/04 and has now risen to $65 million annuity dollars from 57 milliion annuity dollars.  The cash value has increased from $31.4 million to $36.1 million.  This implies the lottery is expecting about $14.4 million in sales.  The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 89%.  The probability it will have one winner is 11%, two winners, 0.6%, and three winners, 0.3%

                          Good luck!

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                            Posted: April 11, 2004, 8:45 am - IP Logged

                            The last MM jackpot restart of $10,000,000 had sales of around 14 million.

                            This means, if the lottery behaves the same, that there is a 90% chance of it rolling over; a 9% chance of there being one winner, a 0.5% chance of two winners, and a 0.02% chance of three winner

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                              Posted: April 12, 2004, 11:55 am - IP Logged
                              Quote: Originally posted by prob987 on April 11, 2004



                              The powerball jackpot has rolled over on 4/10/04 and has now risen to $65 million annuity dollars from 57 milliion annuity dollars.  The cash value has increased from $31.4 million to $36.1 million.  This implies the lottery is expecting about $14.4 million in sales.  The probability of the jackpot rolling over again is 89%.  The probability it will have one winner is 11%, two winners, 0.6%, and three winners, 0.3%

                              Good luck!





                              I think there is an error in your computation.  For PB, the increase in the cash value of the jackpot is 29% of total sales.  If that is correct, then the lottery is expecting about $16.2 million in sales.

                              Increase in cash value = 4.7 million dollars

                              $ 4.7 million divided by .29 equals $ 16.207 million dollars.

                                 
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