To lottery players, $100 million ain't what it used to be.
A seven-month streak of jackpots that were big, but not gigantic, has sent traditional lottery sales plummeting in many states.
In the past six months, Mega Millions sales are down 30% in Texas compared with a year earlier and 38% in Massachusetts. Powerball sales are off 6% in Wisconsin.
The USA is suffering from "jackpot fatigue," lottery officials say.
"There was a time when $50 million created a stir. Then we needed $100 million," says Bobby Heith of the Texas Lottery. "Now even that's not good enough."
The two big multistate lottery games, Mega Millions and Powerball, are in a run of low jackpots. An exception: James Wilson, 84, a retired St. Louis electrician, and his wife, Shirley, 79, won a $254 million Powerball jackpot Jan. 24.
Mega Millions had five jackpots above $200 million in the 12 months that ended June 30, including one for $315 million. The result: record sales of $1.5 billion.
Since then, Mega Millions has had no jackpots reach $200 million. Jackpots of $125 million and $163 million have stirred little excitement or coverage.
Lower jackpots occur by chance. More winning tickets have been drawn, so pots haven't risen for the next drawing. Current prizes:
- $106 million for Mega Millions, sold in 13 states, including California, New York and Texas. (Odds of winning: 1 in 176 million.)
- $46 million for Powerball, sold in 29 states, plus Washington, D.C. and the U.S. Virgin Islands (Odds of winning: 1 in 146 million.)
The advertised jackpot is the amount to be paid over 26 years for Mega Millions and 30 years for Powerball. Most winners pick an immediate payment, usually 33%-40% of the advertised prize, after taxes.
Despite struggles in traditional lotteries, most state lotteries are doing fine because of other games' popularity. Scratch-off tickets that sell for $10 and $20 and offer instant million-dollar prizes do well.
As a result, lottery revenue is flat or up slightly in most states.
Concerns about lottery sales have led some states to consider selling the games to private investors for billions of dollars.
I believe the reality of the long odds of winning are hitting home. Once upon a time I played $5.00 a draw, now I play $1.00 a draws. I live in NY state, as far as I know their has never been a MM Jackpot winner outside of New York City. The majority of second place winners, are also in NYC. The why bother factor has kicked in for me. I really see myself this time next year not participating at all in the lotteries.
I think that people are so desensitized to money as a result of media exposure to celebrity life, that 100 million just isn't as appealing as 300, or better yet, 400. Would I like to win 100 million dollars, you bet, but I would spend more on playing if the jackpot was over 300 million. And it doesn't seem to be helping that the Mega Millions and Powerball Lotteries have rarely seen large "mega" jackpots in the last year. I think people aren't playing because people are winning when jackpots are too low. Part of playing lotto is the dream, and it's always funner to dream bigger. I think that Mega Millions and Powerball should add a number or two to the pools to decrease the odds of winning even more. What's the worst thing that can happen, a 400 or 500 million dollar lottery that someone would eventually win, and you better believe more people would play with the media exposure a jackpot like that would create. People buy scratch off tickets or play their local lotteries for average jackpots, but I believe people want their multi-state lotteries to give them the mega jackpots they once promised. They haven't been delivering, so people haven't been playing.
Rest assured, $50 million is plenty enough for me, I just get sick and tired of never winning most of the low tier prizes; let alone the jackpot. I have been suffering from "lottery fatigue" for years now. The media hype only comes in now if someone wins hundreds of millions, so it makes anything less than that seem like not as big of a deal. Until you win it.
There's alot of truth to this story, I still play but no more than 4-5$$ a draw $4.00 if it's under 100 million and $5.00 if it's over. I used to play 20-25 a week but the best I ever did was the $3.00 prizes I mean I never won a grand or more. so after all these years I just decided to cut back to 4-5 dollars a draw.
Agreed, the lotteries have brought this on themselves by ever increasing the odds. Once upon a time 80million to 1 was the Powerball odds, now we are expected to buy in to 145million to 1 odds. People just aren't as dumb as they would like. My suggestion is to drop the odds on the regular powerball to 100million to 1 and add a Mini-Powerball game with something like 30million to 1 odds. This way players can choose from a long shot to a very long shot depending on their personality. Right now I only have the option to play 145million to 1 Powerball or my state lottery's 500,000 to 1 Pick 5 which leaves me out in the cold as far as having an option that suites my personal preferrence.
We don't have a Mega Millions but I couldn't imagine buying a ticket with 175million to 1 odds and having an ounce of faith that I could get anything out of it. Before Powerball went to 145m:1 odds I would start buying at $50 million dollar pots, now I wait for $100 million and I am definitely buying less tickets, mainly because I believe I am throwing my money away at these odds and I need an exponentially greater incentive to play the jacked-up version.
The mistake lottery officials make is thinking that simply increasing the odds will create larger jackpots which will increase buzz, but that's not how most players think. Jacked-up odds means a much greater expectation of huge pots which creates a loss of buzz during these long build-up periods. It takes about a month for Powerball to get up to a $100 million. Also, with the increased odds PB has fewer winners to annouce each year which hurts them with players. Buzz is not only created by large jackpots, it seems to be created when the jackpot nears or exceeds the odds of winning. I see this in every lottery I play. When our little Pick 5 reaches $500,000 sales start to go through the roof. Same with Florida's Lotto which doesn't have to reach $30 million before players are ready to jump in. I think the Mega Millions and Powerball officials have gone in the wrong direction, but I doubt the high paid executives will ever admit their mistakes, more likely they will have to be thrown out for lagging sales before we see a positive change. I wonder if the officials thought they would raise the odds and people would only notice higher jackpot, but not consider the diminishing chance of a win.
I think this is completely wrong and is the misconception that is killing the lotterys. Very few people are saying, I am not playing because $100 million simply isnt enough money. People aren't playing because they don't believe they can win. The year before they raised the PB odds, the lottery went to $200 million three times and somehow that wasn't good enough? When I wrote to officials I actually got a reply that the PB only went to $200 million once, because he didn't acknowledge the times it went to $190+ million.
You say add a number or two and I say that if they do that then very few will play until the pot gets to $300 million which means people will be sitting out for months waiting on the pot to build and I would probably never play such a game. Are you seriously suggesting raising the odds to 200million to 1 to encourage people to play?
As for people hitting the pots early, you CAN'T stop people from hitting the Jackpot at all ranges of the spectrum, that's what randomness is all about. People need to be realistic.
I agree. The big jackpot lotteries have such ridiculously long odds that more than a buck or two on them isn't worth it, no matter what the jackpot amount is.....besides, I don't need a hundred million dollars to retire and live confortably. A couple of million pre-tax would be plenty. I don't have a desire to be that extravagant.
Here is a LIST of the reasons for the "cool down":
-There have been so many jackpots over 100 million. When 50 million was noteworthy it was because it was unusual.
-There is an inflation effect. If you want to buy a house for cash you need to win about 1 million (advertised annuity) or more!
-There are always stories (and TV series) about people who won big but were even more miserable after.
-People are tired of buying loads of tickets and then having hardly any matching numbers let alone 2 or 3 on one line, and then find out that 2+bonus pays only 4 dollars.
-People don't buy 100 at a time, they maybe get 5 dollars on a whim. The last several winners played only 5 or 10 dollars.
-After taxes and cash option the jackpot is 1/3 of the advertised amount and people are wising up to this.
-I dispute that it's harder to see large jackpot amounts. They do come around often enough - look at MM right now. If the jackpots don't get quite as high it's because MORE STATES ARE PLAYING and PEOPLE ARE WINNING JACKPOTS MORE OFTEN. But they also keep adding more balls so that it's that much harder to win a SMALLER prize.
-I dispute a lack of interest in the Lottery in general. I still often have to wait a long time for someone to recite 100 different Pickit numbers because they don't want to fill out betslips.
-Remember when not only you had to wait 3 hours on line for Powerball, and you could only get Quick Picks? Do you want to go back to that?
I play be expectation value, the ratio of the prize to the odds. The long odds have decreased my playing.
But for the lotteries, it comes down to luck, as it does for the players. Long odds do not assure rollovers.
They do make rollovers more probable, but not necessarily large jackpots.
I would try better odds if I wanted to increase sales, but it's hardly my call.
I don't think that raising the odds will encourage people to play, I think that larger jackpots will. Yeah there will be a waiting period, but it is also likely that the jackpot will remain larger longer, and despite the odds, if there is a 400 or 500 million dollar jackpot out there, people will be more likely to at least buy 1 ticket. My point is that for better odds and smaller jackpots, I play my local lottery, but I'll only fork over the money for the megamillions when their are "mega" jackpots. I guess you can say it's the odds that will keep me from playing when the pot is small, but when it grows, the odds don't really mean a whole lot, at least to me.
Will someone please tell me, what is wrong with our American society that some people don't feel the lottery is worth their time or their money unless it's $200 million or more?
I would be grateful (and the operative word is grateful) to win $15 million. People need to get off their pompous, high horses because...most people don't make $100,000 or more a year!
Now, it seems that some people lust for more and more -- they have become greedy to the extent that even the word greedy is vulgar, distasteful, disdainful, and sinful. Let's be thankful for what we receive because there are many people who would damn near give their right arm for a $15 million win -- let alone -- a $200 million lottery hit!
Because playing a game that has odds of 140 million to one for a 15 million jackpot that is watered down through cash value and taxes to about 4.5 million is hardly a good investment. If you would be happy with 100k why dont you play games that will give you a better chance at winning that than pissing your money down the toliet trying to chase down totally astronomical odds.
For clarification, my reference to the $100,000 a year was based on salary, not a particular game or games. People get out of their beds, day-after-day, making less: $20,000, $30,000, $40,000, etc. Yes, there are executives making 6 figures -- and some are not playing the lottery. It seems as if they are content with what they are making. That was my original point!
In GA the jackpot got big for Mega Millions, over 200 millions. I wouldn't think twice about complaining about 5 million, but maybe I'm old school there. The thing to remember about Holywood is that the Paris Hiltons of the world have no concept of money because it was always handed to them.
What I meant to say is I wouldn't think about complaining.
Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy winning 10k, all I'm saying is that for the Mega millions or Powerball to entice me over a local lottery, it would have to be a big one, and the bigger the better, sometimes it's just fun to dream big. What was big 5 years ago doesn't seem to get the same attention, so I think they should go a bit bigger if they want that same attention they've had in the past.
There are things a lottery can do to overcome so-called "jackpot fatigue", some are pretty, some aren't. The first remedy is simple patience. Unfortunately, most states have seemed to put all their eggs into one basket, that being either PB or MM, so waiting may not be much of an option when most of your ad budget is going to a "lost cause". There are lot's of things these games can do to get people back, such as add more prizes, increase lower tier prizes, raise the price and lower the odds (both have to be done in order for it to work). Other than raising the prices, however, none of this will happen. Lottery directors have a tendency to think low of their players, they think players will buy anything no matter how bad it is.
They've made the matrix too high, odds too long where you spend, spend, spend and get no return.
Mega Millions and Powerball both are no fun any longer due to this. Have covered it ad nauseam in my previous posts.
Do a visual of someone sitting on a donkey, spurs buried in its ribs dangling a carrot on a stick, whomping its rear with another stick. That's exactly how MM and PB are treating players and the only winners have been them to this point.
Now they're feeling self inflicted pain. Good it's about time!! Hope they continue to feel it deeply in thier pockets, suffering results of their own greed .... by discounting intelligence of players and their willingness to toss money down a rat hole.
Bring the matrix down .... make playing the games FUN again and players might $$$pend more.
"If the jackpots don't get quite as high it's because MORE STATES ARE PLAYING and PEOPLE ARE WINNING JACKPOTS MORE OFTEN."
That isn't how it works. How often the jackpots are won is and always will be a function of the odds, but probability is only a trend and there will be variations on both sides of the norm. The more people play the more money goes into the prize pool and the higher the jackpots get. More people playing means more winners, but it also means more money for prizes at the same time, and the jackpots grow faster when more people play.
The article says that sales are down, but it also says that the previous year had record sales as a result of unusually large jackpots. Some people would look at the record year and see a glass that's more than half full, but it looks like now that sales have dropped back to what is probably typical they're crying that their very big glass is half empty.
It also looks to me like the numbers in the article are wrong. The annuity jackpots offered from June 2005 through June 2006 totaled about $1.5 billion. Figuring that the cash was about 60% of the annuity value there would have been about $900 million in the jackpot pool. With 30% of sales going to the jackpot that means they would have sold $3 billion dollars worth of tickets, or twice what the article lists as the record sales.
By comparison the total annuity jackpots offered for the previous year totaled just over $1 billion. Interest rates were lower, so the total cash may have been about 65% or about 680 million. That would be a bit shy of $2.3 billion in sales.
If those numbers are close to accurate the record year saw sales that were about 30% higher than the previous year. That would make current sales that are down by 30% fairly close to the sales for the year before the record sales.
Do people really have "jackpot fatigue"? Maybe, but the sky isn't falling. At least not yet.
i agree.it quit being fun for me when the matrix changed.i mainly have fun with pick 5 now.i'll take 200,000 dollars just as soon as i would 200 million dollars.
This is absolutely correct!
The issue is NOT that the jackpots are too low.
The problem is that the odds are so high that many people rationalize that they are not going to win.
The "magic level" where people start coming out in droves to buy tickets is a perception level that kicks in when the jackpot is so high that it overcomes their rational thoughts about not being able to win.
That's all it is. It is NOT that people think $100 million is a small amount. No way! It's that they have such a strong belief that they will not win that it seems pointless -- even wasteful -- to plunk down a dollar (or $5 or $10). Buying a pack of gum with that dollar would bring more joy.
What if they created an anti-mutli-state game? One that focused on generating as many millionaires as possible (given the constraints of the prize payout percentages, etc.). If they generated 20 or 30 millionaires every drawing (I'm talking $1 million in cash, not some "cash value" that chops it down to $200,000 after taxes), does anyone think people wouldn't play because $1 million isn't enough?
You guys are right on the money and that is evident with the interest that people
have with the raffle drawings as of late. I mean these tickets are $20 most of the time
and people have no problem buying 1 or more of those. They do think the players
are ignorant to the odds and just see the money, but we are not. Most of us anyway
If they would toss out the pencil necked number crunchers who sold them an "80's all for me none for you" mindset with current matrices and have a whole new campaign bringing back classic Powerball and Big Game ~ NOT Mega Millions ~ then my bet is people would get off their wallets.
Texas rolled back their regular lotto matrix but didn't roll it back to original so are still suffering their folly.
A prime example of ruining a perfectly good game was our previous greedy lottery director ending Lotto Georgia 6-46 in favor of the now defunct Lotto South 6-49. Odds up, people quit playing, end of story.
They just don't seem to get it, must be they're living in too much smog downtown to realize what players want and keep showing with their wallets. Or maybe it's too many 'perks' from companies selling lame concepts so they can provide supplies for games.
Lowering the matrix back to original is a win/win for everyone .... it's a slam dunk, it's a winner in the biggest way.
As Todd eloquently put people have to BELIEVE they can win in order to spend money on fun/joy of trying to achieve their dream.
It sounds like we are getting a pretty good consensus here on the odds being too long. I was very frustrated when I posted a protest thread here before PB raised the odds and some people insisted raising the odds would be good for the game. Apparently, I have been completely vindicated. The odds went up and sales went down.
I keep a spreadsheet of what I would do with the money if I won and when the jackpot starts to get over $100 million I already have every dream fulfilled. When it gets over $200 million, I almost stop caring because there are only so many yachts, houses and cars I can make reasonable use of. I know some players want to buy a country or start an airline, but the vast majority don't need or even want all of that. I just want an option to play lower odds and have a little better chance of winning. Give us two games, a 50million:1 and a 100million:1, I will play whichever suites me at the moment.
Lastly, I wanted to comment on the guy who listed "more states entering the PB or MM" is a reason the pots get hit at the low end. I have said it in the past that the number of players has nothing to do with the average winning pot size, it is the odds that determine this. I almost think that this misconception is put out by the lottery association to justify the raising the odds, if not, then I am not sure why people would not know this.
I agree!
I agree!
I agree!
I think that people will become desensitized to any jackpot amount, over time. The odds are just about right for a multistate game. Let people play state games if they want an easier target.
I do agree that it's too tough to win a prize. I say, reconstruct the matrix with fewer bonus balls. Increase lower tier payouts a bit. Maybe a 5/69 + 1/15? Or 5/55 + 2/10. They have 168m and 156m combinations, respectively.
Give out $1, $2, $3, prizes for matching a bonus ball or two. If people won on every 10 or 15 lines, they would come back, and feel that they were so close! That will drive interest, fun and sales.