Honduras Member #20982 August 29, 2005 4715 Posts Offline

Posted: February 15, 2007, 10:16 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on February 15, 2007

"the odds of it happening are virtually incalculable"

Geez. Has anyone ever considered making it illegal for morons to be reporters? The odds are extremely steep and extremely easy to calculate. If the odds of doing it once are 1 in 170,000 then the odds of doing it twice are 1 in 170,000^2, assuming the guy only bought two tickets.

If he bought more tickets the odds go down. If he bought two tickest for each of those drawings but not for any other day then the odds were 1 in 85,000^2. Assuming he's been buying tickets for that game regularly the odds go down every day he plays. The odds of any one person having back to back wins will always be steep even for games with relativley low odds, but with enough people playing enough games it's a virtual certainty that somebody will do it every once ina while.

I don't think is as easy as to say 170,000 X 2...and i disagree...Is a little easy to do it any day after the first win, but VERY hard to do it the following day...

"More Important than winning the state's lotteries is the movie "Red Planet.."..."

Wandering Aimlessly United States Member #25360 November 5, 2005 4461 Posts Offline

Posted: February 16, 2007, 12:52 am - IP Logged

The MegaMoney here is 5 numbers. First 4 numbers from 1 to 44 and the MegaBall 1 to 22

Odds are 1:2,986,522 according to the FL web site

Last week there was a news article announcing a woman won it a second time (not in a row, but still, twice with those odds!!) She won $2M on Jan 30 and split a jackpot (winning $320K) in 1998. Maybe I'm playing the wrong game!

But I really think, in most cases, it's just being at the right place at the right time. (they were quick picks)

Zeta Reticuli Star System United States Member #30470 January 17, 2006 10351 Posts Offline

Posted: February 16, 2007, 1:20 am - IP Logged

"The MegaMoney here is 5 numbers. First 4 numbers from 1 to 44 and the MegaBall 1 to 22"

So actually, like PB and MM, it's two lottery gmes in one. If you guess right and get the 4 in the 44 matrix, you still have to have the right MegaBall.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

NY United States Member #23835 October 16, 2005 3474 Posts Offline

Posted: February 16, 2007, 2:13 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by pumpi76 on February 15, 2007

I don't think is as easy as to say 170,000 X 2...and i disagree...Is a little easy to do it any day after the first win, but VERY hard to do it the following day...

"More Important than winning the state's lotteries is the movie "Red Planet.."..."

I didn't say it was 170,000 X 2, I said it was 170,000^2. That's 170,000 squared, or 170,000 X 170,000, which is 85,000 times less likely than 170,000 X 2.

It isn't when the two wins happen that determines the odds. It's how many tickets he had and for how many drawings. The probability of two events happening depend on how many events could happen and the chances for each event to happen. If he bought a single ticket every day for 10 days there would be the possibility of winning on any or all of the ten days. The odds against winning on any days 1 and 2 would be 1 in 170,000^2. The odds of winning on days 2 and 3 would also be 1 in 170,000^2, the odds of winning on days 3 and 4 would be 1 in 170,000^2, and so on through days 9 and 10. Each 2 day period would have the same 1 in 170,000^2 odds, but he would have had 9 different chances to win on consecutive days, so the odds would then be 1 in (170,000^2)/9. If he bought tickets every day for 30 days it woud be (170,000^2)/29

That's assuming he only bought one ticket each day. Buying multiple tickets would reduce the odds against winning that day. Buying 2 tickets would make him twice as likely to win, buying 3 tickets would make him three times as likely to win, etc. If he bought 2 tickets the odds for each day woud be 2 in 170,000 or 1 in 85,000. 2 tickets a day for 10 days straight would then be 1 in (85,000^2)/9, or 4 times more likely.

Still, no matter how many tickets he was buying, or how long he'd been buying them, the odds are extremely steep.

NY United States Member #23835 October 16, 2005 3474 Posts Offline

Posted: February 16, 2007, 2:17 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Prob988 on February 15, 2007

His odds of doing that would be one in 29 billion. I'd feel ripped of if I beat such odds and only got 50 grand.

The payouts aren't based on winning twice, and two winners on two consecutive days is the norm. Do you think they should pay a lot more to any two people who win on consecutive days?

Wisconsin United States Member #1303 March 27, 2003 1508 Posts Offline

Posted: February 16, 2007, 7:39 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JAG331 on February 15, 2007

I'll give the explanation a try.

The odds don't increase equally with each extra ball in the lottery. Every extra ball adds more odds than the previous ball. Odds of winning a 5/31 jackpot are precisely 1 in 169,911. Odds in a 5/32 jackpot are 1 in 201,376. A difference of 31,465. But the odds of winning a 5/33 jackpot are 1 in 237,336, a difference of 35,960 above the 5/32 game.

The formula for figuring out odds is a bit complex, but it can be boiled down to this:

Start with the total number of balls. In the story, this is 31. There are 5 balls drawn, so multiply 31 x 30 x 29 x 28 x 27. Then divide that result by 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1.

In the 5/36 game you cited, it would be 36 x 35 x 34 x 33 x 32 divided by 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1.

For another example, take a 6/49 game, you would do 49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 divided by 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1, to get odds of 1 in 13,983,816.

I hope this helps to explain why each additional number adds more combinations than the previous number.

Calculating odds is a d iverting pastime, and most of us do it. But in the end, it appears that if you are meant to hit, you will, and the odds mean nothing. Even with the 142 million to one PB odds, someone will eventually beat those odds and hit it.

Therefore, I look more at how much I'm spending than what the odds are that I will hit.

Honduras Member #20982 August 29, 2005 4715 Posts Offline

Posted: February 16, 2007, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on February 16, 2007

I didn't say it was 170,000 X 2, I said it was 170,000^2. That's 170,000 squared, or 170,000 X 170,000, which is 85,000 times less likely than 170,000 X 2.

It isn't when the two wins happen that determines the odds. It's how many tickets he had and for how many drawings. The probability of two events happening depend on how many events could happen and the chances for each event to happen. If he bought a single ticket every day for 10 days there would be the possibility of winning on any or all of the ten days. The odds against winning on any days 1 and 2 would be 1 in 170,000^2. The odds of winning on days 2 and 3 would also be 1 in 170,000^2, the odds of winning on days 3 and 4 would be 1 in 170,000^2, and so on through days 9 and 10. Each 2 day period would have the same 1 in 170,000^2 odds, but he would have had 9 different chances to win on consecutive days, so the odds would then be 1 in (170,000^2)/9. If he bought tickets every day for 30 days it woud be (170,000^2)/29

That's assuming he only bought one ticket each day. Buying multiple tickets would reduce the odds against winning that day. Buying 2 tickets would make him twice as likely to win, buying 3 tickets would make him three times as likely to win, etc. If he bought 2 tickets the odds for each day woud be 2 in 170,000 or 1 in 85,000. 2 tickets a day for 10 days straight would then be 1 in (85,000^2)/9, or 4 times more likely.

Still, no matter how many tickets he was buying, or how long he'd been buying them, the odds are extremely steep.

And i bet that if he bought 2 tickets on day 1 and on day 2 he would have had the same odds as if he had bought it on day 1 and on day 3 or 4 or 5 or any other day that's not consecutive...And that's on of the things i disagree with mathematics, because everyone knows is harder to win a lottery on day 1 and on day 2 (consecutively), than it is to win it on day 1 and on day 3 or any day that's not consecutive...Example..As it happened to you that you win the pick3 one day and win it 5 or 7 days later, but you probably have never won pick3, 2 days in a row or 3 days in a row, why? because is very hard...Is easy to win pick3 one day and win it 15 days later than is to win it consecutively every following day...

This example is one of the small things i don't like about mathematics..Example one of the things i don't like about mathematics, is when geometry texbooks instead of selecting definitions that everyone agree on; they select technical definitions and in the end of the year kids don't recall those technical definitions but instead kids recall definitions that sits well with them...

"More important than winning the state's lotteries is the movie "Red Planet..".."