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Powerball multi-state lottery game to change rules

Topic closed. 73 replies. Last post 8 years ago by mymonthlypicks.

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Think's avatar - lightbulb
Marquette, MI
United States
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August 20, 2005
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Posted: August 13, 2008, 9:57 pm - IP Logged

There are 12 MM states, all close to the same population.  There are 31 PB jurisdictions of wildly different popualtion sizes.  What you see is exactly what you should statistically be expected.  You can't complain about an orderly universe.  Both games should get about 12-15 jackpot hits per year.

I don't see where I was complaining.  My point, which I did not make clear, is that these games are jackpot vampires (sucking all the decent sized in-state jackpots up and giving players a jackpot drought in their place).

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    Urbandale, IA
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    November 11, 2004
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    Posted: August 13, 2008, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

    I don't see where I was complaining.  My point, which I did not make clear, is that these games are jackpot vampires (sucking all the decent sized in-state jackpots up and giving players a jackpot drought in their place).

    I'm not much of a mind reader.  "Jackpot vampires" is a fun term.  My experience is that people pretty quickly move to a state jackpot game of any size because it has better odds.  If I'm in a state where I can play, I certainly drop my dollar on MM (for the fickle finger of fate) and on the state game too (with better odds).  Probably not so much the fault of the multi-state games as the fault of players if they walk away from a good state game. FL has a great state game.  It will see a 30% cut (common in both PB and MM states) but the FL game is big enough that it will do fine; and PB will much more than make up the difference.  Not that it makes a big difference to FL.  Their profit will be slightly better on a multi-state game (shared costs of production, uplink, and everything else - and in PB's case, a state is paid to join the game) but it is a strong game that deserves the attention of local players. 

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      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #21206
      September 4, 2005
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      Posted: August 14, 2008, 11:11 am - IP Logged

      This should save me money because I play based solely on expectation value, the jackpot divided by the odds.

      I don't play when the expectation value is below a certain level, but as it rises, I play more and more.

      I have a choice of whether to play Powerball and Mega since I live in a border area between states.

      Because Powerball's odds were better, I tended to end up playing powerball more often.   That's likely to change now.

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        Urbandale, IA
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        November 11, 2004
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        Posted: August 14, 2008, 11:31 am - IP Logged

        I'm not sure when MM makes its game change.

          spy153's avatar - maren

          United States
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          December 15, 2005
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          Posted: August 14, 2008, 12:01 pm - IP Logged

          I'm not sure when MM makes its game change.

          MM is making game changes too?Unhappy

          voir-vous dans mes reves!Cool

            DC81's avatar - batman39
            MI
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            August 31, 2007
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            Posted: August 14, 2008, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

            I don't recall reading or hearing anything about it though they seem to be doing well enough as it is now. I doubt they'd change it in response to Powerball's changes unless MM adds another good size (at least similar to MM's current average state population) state though I don't think there are many, if any left, I'd have too look since I don't know all the states are that are already involved with either game. If Florida had joined Mega Millions they probably would have changed their odds to something like 1 in well over 200,000,000.

            You can't predict random.

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              Urbandale, IA
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              November 11, 2004
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              Posted: August 14, 2008, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

              Florida is the last U.S. Lottery state to go multi-state.  There may be some new lotteries coming, but not anytime soon.  Arkansas may be next - in 2010 or so.  A few other states flirt with lotteries from time-to-time -- WY, NV, AK, HI have all had bills proposed, but failed. 

                Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                Indiana
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                January 7, 2007
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                Posted: August 14, 2008, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

                I think Powerball will reclaim the jackpot record. There's 49 million more combinations, which is a 33% increase. That's huge. Hell, 1 in 1 million is a shot in the dark; much less 1 in 195 million. It's insane. Powerball will start seeing super big jackpots a lot more often now.

                Gonna win.Big Smile

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                  Urbandale, IA
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                  Posted: August 14, 2008, 10:22 pm - IP Logged

                  But remember that Powerball limits its jackpot growth at the record levels - dumping the money into a Match 5 BONUS pool.  That will slow the growth to the world record; spreading the wealth instead.

                    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                    Indiana
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                    Posted: August 14, 2008, 10:24 pm - IP Logged

                    But remember that Powerball limits its jackpot growth at the record levels - dumping the money into a Match 5 BONUS pool.  That will slow the growth to the world record; spreading the wealth instead.

                    I think it will get quick tie at $390M when the matrix changes. A few months later, $415M.

                    Gonna win.Big Smile

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                      Urbandale, IA
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                      Posted: August 14, 2008, 10:25 pm - IP Logged

                      I think it will get quick tie at $390M when the matrix changes. A few months later, $415M.

                      From your keyboard to the odds gods . . . .

                        ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
                        Idaho
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                        November 21, 2007
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                        Posted: August 15, 2008, 12:34 am - IP Logged

                        MM is making game changes too?Unhappy

                        I think if MM sees that Powerball is getting higher jackpots like 300 million plus, they will have a matrix change as well.

                        "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

                          Think's avatar - lightbulb
                          Marquette, MI
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                          August 20, 2005
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                          Posted: August 15, 2008, 10:22 pm - IP Logged

                          I think if MM sees that Powerball is getting higher jackpots like 300 million plus, they will have a matrix change as well.

                          I am holding out for better odds and a $2 ticket price on powerball. 

                          I hope MegaMillions skips the matrix change and just goes to the $2 ticket price and maybe Megaplier, smallaplier(higher prizes at $2 thru $150 level), and bigaplier (higher 2nd 250k level prize and higher 3rd 10k level Prize).  I'd get the ticket with bigaplier.

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                            NY
                            United States
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                            October 16, 2005
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                            Posted: August 15, 2008, 10:31 pm - IP Logged

                            I am holding out for better odds and a $2 ticket price on powerball. 

                            I hope MegaMillions skips the matrix change and just goes to the $2 ticket price and maybe Megaplier, smallaplier(higher prizes at $2 thru $150 level), and bigaplier (higher 2nd 250k level prize and higher 3rd 10k level Prize).  I'd get the ticket with bigaplier.

                            You're in luck. I talked to the managers at Powerball, and they've made special arrangements for you. When you buy your tickets, pay $2 and they'll let you pick 2 sets of numbers, so your odds will be "only" 1 in 97.5 million.

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                              Urbandale, IA
                              United States
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                              November 11, 2004
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                              Posted: August 15, 2008, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

                              I am holding out for better odds and a $2 ticket price on powerball. 

                              I hope MegaMillions skips the matrix change and just goes to the $2 ticket price and maybe Megaplier, smallaplier(higher prizes at $2 thru $150 level), and bigaplier (higher 2nd 250k level prize and higher 3rd 10k level Prize).  I'd get the ticket with bigaplier.

                              Your wish is granted for MM. 

                              But Powerball is already a $2 game, if you want that.  It is just optional.  Once, in a candle store, I saw a sign on a giant candle that said "$1 a pull".  I talked to the manager and he said that he wanted to stop people from trying to lift the candel by the wick.  He had posted a "Don't Lift Candle" sign but found that you can't tell Americans "NO".  So, he put up a sign charging $1 to lift the candle by the wick.  Americans demand a choice.  You can still play Powerball for $1 or for $2 (which redesigns the game to put more money into the lower prize tiers).