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Powerball multi-state lottery game to change rules

Topic closed. 73 replies. Last post 8 years ago by mymonthlypicks.

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Think's avatar - lightbulb
Marquette, MI
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Posted: August 15, 2008, 10:48 pm - IP Logged

You're in luck. I talked to the managers at Powerball, and they've made special arrangements for you. When you buy your tickets, pay $2 and they'll let you pick 2 sets of numbers, so your odds will be "only" 1 in 97.5 million.

Nope, doesn't work that way.  That would be 2 in 195 Million.

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    Urbandale, IA
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    Posted: August 15, 2008, 10:51 pm - IP Logged

    Nope, doesn't work that way.  That would be 2 in 195 Million.

    Ha!  It certainly does work that way.  2:195 million is exactly the same thing as 1:97.5 million.  Just as buying 195 million tickets is 195M:195M for a 1:1 chance - a guaranteed win.

      Think's avatar - lightbulb
      Marquette, MI
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      Posted: August 15, 2008, 10:58 pm - IP Logged

      Your wish is granted for MM. 

      But Powerball is already a $2 game, if you want that.  It is just optional.  Once, in a candle store, I saw a sign on a giant candle that said "$1 a pull".  I talked to the manager and he said that he wanted to stop people from trying to lift the candel by the wick.  He had posted a "Don't Lift Candle" sign but found that you can't tell Americans "NO".  So, he put up a sign charging $1 to lift the candle by the wick.  Americans demand a choice.  You can still play Powerball for $1 or for $2 (which redesigns the game to put more money into the lower prize tiers).

      I understand what you are saying about the smaller prizes but if I want $50 or $100 I will just stop buying tickets.  On the same point, if I ever beat Fantasy 5 odds I want more than $10K for it and if I ever beat 6/40 odds I want more than $250k for it and I am willing to kick in the extra buck for bigger prizes at those levels.

      I am also willing to pay $2 for a base ticket because I understand the concept of inflation.

        Think's avatar - lightbulb
        Marquette, MI
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        Posted: August 15, 2008, 11:05 pm - IP Logged

        Ha!  It certainly does work that way.  2:195 million is exactly the same thing as 1:97.5 million.  Just as buying 195 million tickets is 195M:195M for a 1:1 chance - a guaranteed win.

        Chuck32, yes overall from the point of view of the lottery it does work that way but from the point of view of the player it does not!  For the player it IS 2 in 195 million.  For any small number of tickets it is  Small_Number in 195Million from the point of view of the player.

        From the players viewpoint 2 in 195Million is NOT the same as 1 in 97.5Million!

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          Urbandale, IA
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          Posted: August 15, 2008, 11:06 pm - IP Logged

          I understand what you are saying about the smaller prizes but if I want $50 or $100 I will just stop buying tickets.  On the same point, if I ever beat Fantasy 5 odds I want more than $10K for it and if I ever beat 6/40 odds I want more than $250k for it and I am willing to kick in the extra buck for bigger prizes at those levels.

          I am also willing to pay $2 for a base ticket because I understand the concept of inflation.

          Well, at better than 6/42 odds, you kick in the extra buck for $1 million CASH (don't be fooled by $1 million annuity). 

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            Urbandale, IA
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            Posted: August 15, 2008, 11:07 pm - IP Logged

            Chuck32, yes overall from the point of view of the lottery it does work that way but from the point of view of the player it does not!  For the player it IS 2 in 195 million.  For any small number of tickets it is  Small_Number in 195Million from the point of view of the player.

            From the players viewpoint 2 in 195Million is NOT the same as 1 in 97.5Million!

            I have no idea where you are coming from.  Math is math.  2+2=4.  2:4 is exactly the same as 1:2.

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              Urbandale, IA
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              Posted: August 15, 2008, 11:11 pm - IP Logged

              Another way to look at it is to follow it down.  2:195m = 1:97.5M;

              97.7M:195M=1:2;

              195M:195M=1:1

              If you buy 97.5 million tickets, your chances of winning are exactly 1 out of 2.  If you buy 195 million tickets your chances of winning are 1 in 1.

              Math is not subject to a "different view".

                Think's avatar - lightbulb
                Marquette, MI
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                Posted: August 15, 2008, 11:27 pm - IP Logged

                 The jackpot only rains on one place and is alot easier to miss with 2 in 195 million odds then it is with genuine 1 in 97.5 million odds.  Keep in mind we are talking about buying a small number of tickets. I agree that if you buy a very large number of tickets then your odds do approach that but with a small number of tickets it is small-number in 195million

                  Think's avatar - lightbulb
                  Marquette, MI
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                  Posted: August 15, 2008, 11:30 pm - IP Logged

                  If you pick numbers that are close to each other then you may have better or worse chances actually...it all depends on where it "rains" the jackpot .

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                    Urbandale, IA
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                    Posted: August 15, 2008, 11:30 pm - IP Logged

                     The jackpot only rains on one place and is alot easier to miss with 2 in 195 million odds then it is with genuine 1 in 97.5 million odds.  Keep in mind we are talking about buying a small number of tickets. I agree that if you buy a very large number of tickets then your odds do approach that but with a small number of tickets it is small-number in 195million

                    Well, if you buy 2, it is a small number (the number "1) in 97.5.  If you buy 4, it is a small number (the number "1") in 48.75.

                    It is NOT a lot easier to miss with 2:195 million than with a "genuine" 1:97.5 million.   It is EXACTLY the same.  EXACTLY.  People can have their own opinions about subjective things, but not math.

                      Think's avatar - lightbulb
                      Marquette, MI
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                      Posted: August 15, 2008, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

                      Ok, after this I am going to logoff.  Consider this-  If I buy two tickets and they both have the same powerball and that powerball does not come up then I cant win the jackpot.  If i buy two tickets with different powerballs then my odds change.  If I buy two tickets with the same powerball and that powerball comes up then my odds are not 1 in 97.5 Million...it does all depend on where the jackpot "rains"

                      The odds from the lotterys point of view are different than from the players viewpoint.

                      Since nobody knows where it will rain the odds from the players viewpoint are 2 in 195million

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                        Urbandale, IA
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                        Posted: August 15, 2008, 11:44 pm - IP Logged

                        Ok, after this I am going to logoff.  Consider this-  If I buy two tickets and they both have the same powerball and that powerball does not come up then I cant win the jackpot.  If i buy two tickets with different powerballs then my odds change.  If I buy two tickets with the same powerball and that powerball comes up then my odds are not 1 in 97.5 Million...it does all depend on where the jackpot "rains"

                        The odds from the lotterys point of view are different than from the players viewpoint.

                        Since nobody knows where it will rain the odds from the players viewpoint are 2 in 195million

                        No.  You are incorrect.  But I see where your view has gone awry.  You are moving into a realm of a "partial drawing" when playing the game.  Such a thing does not exist.  Before the drawing, any number can come up.  The chance of any number coming up, including a set of numbers with or without the same red ball number is the same.  2 in 195 million is always exactly the same as 1 in 97.5. 

                          Think's avatar - lightbulb
                          Marquette, MI
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                          Posted: August 17, 2008, 10:57 am - IP Logged

                          No.  You are incorrect.  But I see where your view has gone awry.  You are moving into a realm of a "partial drawing" when playing the game.  Such a thing does not exist.  Before the drawing, any number can come up.  The chance of any number coming up, including a set of numbers with or without the same red ball number is the same.  2 in 195 million is always exactly the same as 1 in 97.5. 

                          Chuck32

                           

                          Powerball and games of that ilk are different beasts.  There is no fictional "realm of partial drawings" needed to explain it.

                          You know going into the game that you need the powerball to win the jackpot.

                          Here-

                          Say I buy 39 tickets all covering each powerball. Then my odds are 5 million to 1 (5/59) to win the jackpot because I know I have the powerball *BEFORE* the drawing.

                          Ok now instead of buying tickets that way I buy 39 easy picks and I look at them and I see that some powerballs are not covered, some powerballs are covered once, and some powerballs are covered more than once.  Now what are my odds of winning the Jackpot?

                          Well let me see, *BEFORE* any drawing takes place I know that there are 3 possible outcomes.

                          My chance of winning the jackpot could be Zilch cause I missed the powerball.

                          My chance of winning the jackpot could be 5 million to 1 because the powerball hit where I had it covered once.

                          My chance of winning the jackpot could be better then 5 million to 1 because the powerball hit where I had it covered more than once.

                          Now what are my odds *BEFORE* the drawing?  knowing that I need the powerball are they 5 Milllion to 1?  Well, it could be but I don't know that.  All I know *BEFORE* the drawing is that my odds of getting the jackpot are 39 in 195 Million and now you can see why I don't need a fictional realm of partial drawings to describe it that way.

                            hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
                            Pennsylvania
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                            Posted: August 17, 2008, 11:29 am - IP Logged

                            that sucks... looks like i will be back to 1 qp for all of 2009 until there are 100+ draws of history.

                            thanks MUSL for once again screwing with the "historians"

                            either that or I now have a goal of winning by december...

                            Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

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                              Urbandale, IA
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                              Posted: August 17, 2008, 1:50 pm - IP Logged

                              Mr. Think,

                              But you have stepped into that realm of partial draws.  Before the drawing, every set of numbers has absolutely the same chance of winning.  It makes no difference if you some sets of numbers with the same red ball.  Every set of numbers has an equal chance on winning the jackpot - I think you will agree with that.  You claim not be into the realm of partial draws, but then you begin to break down the time of the drawing into some kind of time when the five numbers have been draw - or even into some realm when the red ball numbers are drawn first outside of the Arrow of Time - and then the you do some more math.  Even in a "regular" lotto game, you can do the same thing.  Say that one number is drawn and you don't have it, now your odds of winning the jackpot go down (to zero).  You can start recalculating again, but that is just not the way lottery odds work.   I know that you have to reason to trust my view, but you might swing by your local university to chat your friendly stats professor.