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Powerball multi-state lottery game to change rules

Topic closed. 73 replies. Last post 8 years ago by mymonthlypicks.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
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Posted: August 17, 2008, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

When playing games like PowerBall, you're playing two lotteries, one of 5/55 and another of 1/42.  The odds of winning the jackpot are the odds of winning both.  If you pick the same PB for each of your combinations of five then your odds of matching the PB remains the same, however if you match it you're match it more than once.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

    Think's avatar - lightbulb
    Marquette, MI
    United States
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    August 20, 2005
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    Posted: August 17, 2008, 9:32 pm - IP Logged

    chuck32 writes "Before the drawing, every set of numbers has absolutely the same chance of winning." 

    Yes you are correct but in one case you can simplify the odds before the drawing and in the other case you cant!!!

      Captain Lotto's avatar - CaptLotto
      Jefferson City, MO
      United States
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      September 20, 2007
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      Posted: August 18, 2008, 12:25 pm - IP Logged

      In the world of statistics, 2:4 does not equal 1:2.  Chuck hit on the answer - because each combination has the exact chances of being the winning selection.  You can't simplify the odds because the 197 million represents the potential combinations.  No matter how many tickets you buy (or combinations you hold) there is still a chance for 197 million outcomes.  Buying four tickets does not reduce the possible outcomes to 49 million. 

      I know it seems logical to simplify the equation, but that is not correct when considering odds.  Each ticket has the same chance of winning, no matter how many you hold - 1 in 197 million. 

      Captain Lotto

      "Every day is a good day!"

        Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
        Indiana
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        January 7, 2007
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        Posted: August 18, 2008, 12:48 pm - IP Logged

        In the world of statistics, 2:4 does not equal 1:2.  Chuck hit on the answer - because each combination has the exact chances of being the winning selection.  You can't simplify the odds because the 197 million represents the potential combinations.  No matter how many tickets you buy (or combinations you hold) there is still a chance for 197 million outcomes.  Buying four tickets does not reduce the possible outcomes to 49 million. 

        I know it seems logical to simplify the equation, but that is not correct when considering odds.  Each ticket has the same chance of winning, no matter how many you hold - 1 in 197 million. 

        Look. If I buy 2 Powerball tickets, MY odds are going to be 1 in 97.5 million. I own both tickets. I'm not making millions of combinations disappear either. There is still 195 million possible outcomes, 2 of which I have. I'm just simplifying a fraction.

        Gonna win.Big Smile

          Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
          CT
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          May 21, 2008
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          Posted: August 19, 2008, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

          If you were to buy all 195 million UNIQUE combinations, you would not say that you have 195 million tickets each with 1 in 195 million odds of winning (which would be true however).  You would say you have 195,000,000 / 195,000,000 (or 1 in 1) chances of winning.

          The same holds true if you have 97.5 million UNIQUE tickets.  You have half of the possible combinations, so you have a 1 in 2 chance of winning.

            Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
            Indiana
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            Posted: August 19, 2008, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

            If you were to buy all 195 million UNIQUE combinations, you would not say that you have 195 million tickets each with 1 in 195 million odds of winning (which would be true however).  You would say you have 195,000,000 / 195,000,000 (or 1 in 1) chances of winning.

            The same holds true if you have 97.5 million UNIQUE tickets.  You have half of the possible combinations, so you have a 1 in 2 chance of winning.

            You should assume that when discussing combinations, that the person is talking about unique combinations unless they specifically say they aren't. I don't know why people come into a thread saying "But it has to be UNIQUE!". Yes, we already know that.

            Gonna win.Big Smile

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: August 19, 2008, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

              Discussions about how to express odds, how to best claim a jackpot once it's won and who should share it will alway be around as long as posters have nothing to add to an intelligent discussion about how to win a jackpot.  Such discussions don't enlighten anyone about winning a lottery which is why most people read these threads.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                LottoL's avatar - techno eye.jpg
                Texas
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                Posted: August 20, 2008, 7:17 am - IP Logged

                This is the fifth redesign for the best-known multi-state jackpot game since it was created in 1992. The last change was in August 2005. Changes to the current game are expected to be in place by January 2009.

                Does anyone know what the exact date will be of the first drawing with the matrix change? 

                  Captain Lotto's avatar - CaptLotto
                  Jefferson City, MO
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                  Posted: August 20, 2008, 12:04 pm - IP Logged

                  I think it still has to go through some approval process.  The release says it has a target date of "January." 

                  Captain Lotto

                  "Every day is a good day!"

                    tntea's avatar - Lottery-059.jpg

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                    Posted: September 7, 2008, 10:13 pm - IP Logged

                    I agree it's insane, but it was at 1 in 147M.   I mean, how many times has anyone here won a pick-5 game with odds of 1 in 377k?   

                    Can someone please tell me what the odds of getting the 5 balls will be?  Should be around 1 in 5.1M, right?  If that's the case, the MM game in FL has a lot better odds.  It's a 4 of 44 and 1 of 22 (MB) game. 

                    Think PB is shooting itself in the foot.  When people can't even come close to winning the FL Lotto with odds of "only" 1 in 23M, I don't see how they can expect to win PB.  I think increasing the 5/5 prize is a good idea...but 59 numbers?  Yikes!  I just don't see this game being a big hit here in FL, but we can only wait & see.

                    I hope you win it...

                    Really, I do.

                         OLD/Vtrac   Lottery Bible         Double Warnings      Thumbs Up TN F34/F44

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                      Posted: November 7, 2008, 10:51 pm - IP Logged

                      I won Pick 5 a few years ago (Matrix 38 or 39 I think) playing 2 boards. I don't like matrix changes because not only increasing the odds again but wrecking my best algorithms and having to start a new draw history. After I won the 5 the matrix changed I never got above 3 numbers. By the time my prg. gets a grab on it they change it again! I would rather see more 20M winners than a few per year 200M winners. More people would play if there were more winners at least close to where they live sometimes.

                      Hopefully at some point, every State will be either PB or MM so there will be no more of this lame excuse when adding a new State to make the game more difficult. I think Florida is the last one of that size that didn't belong to anything.

                      PS: Warning- in case you are unaware, HOT Lotto is COMPUTERIZED.

                        mymonthlypicks's avatar - spider
                        Virginia Beach,Va
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                        Posted: November 7, 2008, 11:06 pm - IP Logged

                        Just play the first 55 numbers. the other 4 numbers won't be out very often maybe  6.9362% of the time.

                          Stew12's avatar - bad egg-64x64.png
                          CT
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                          Posted: November 8, 2008, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

                          Well you could say any 4 numbers won't come out (on average) more than 6.7797% of the time.  But by that logic, playing the first 51 would give you an advantage as well since the last 8 should only show 13.559% of the time :)

                            mymonthlypicks's avatar - spider
                            Virginia Beach,Va
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                            Posted: November 8, 2008, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

                            Well you could say any 4 numbers won't come out (on average) more than 6.7797% of the time.  But by that logic, playing the first 51 would give you an advantage as well since the last 8 should only show 13.559% of the time :)

                            Good Point!

                             

                               Here is the 2008 Powerball Results _ 36 of 89 Drawing had a number draw 50 or above,

                            53 drawing had no numbers above 50

                            Jan - 3 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            Feb - 2 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            Mar - 1 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            Apr -  4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            May - 1 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            Jun -  5 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            Jul  -  7 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            Aug -  4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            Sep -  5 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            Oct -  4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                            Nov  - 0 of the 2 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

                             

                            710 total number only 45 numbers were 50 and above and this counts multi 50+ number in each drawing