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# Powerball multi-state lottery game to change rules

Topic closed. 73 replies. Last post 10 years ago by mymonthlypicks.

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50
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20273 Posts
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 Posted: August 17, 2008, 2:25 pm - IP Logged

When playing games like PowerBall, you're playing two lotteries, one of 5/55 and another of 1/42.  The odds of winning the jackpot are the odds of winning both.  If you pick the same PB for each of your combinations of five then your odds of matching the PB remains the same, however if you match it you're match it more than once.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *

Marquette, MI
United States
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August 20, 2005
833 Posts
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 Posted: August 17, 2008, 9:32 pm - IP Logged

chuck32 writes "Before the drawing, every set of numbers has absolutely the same chance of winning."

Yes you are correct but in one case you can simplify the odds before the drawing and in the other case you cant!!!

Jefferson City, MO
United States
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September 20, 2007
97 Posts
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 Posted: August 18, 2008, 12:25 pm - IP Logged

In the world of statistics, 2:4 does not equal 1:2.  Chuck hit on the answer - because each combination has the exact chances of being the winning selection.  You can't simplify the odds because the 197 million represents the potential combinations.  No matter how many tickets you buy (or combinations you hold) there is still a chance for 197 million outcomes.  Buying four tickets does not reduce the possible outcomes to 49 million.

I know it seems logical to simplify the equation, but that is not correct when considering odds.  Each ticket has the same chance of winning, no matter how many you hold - 1 in 197 million.

Captain Lotto

"Every day is a good day!"

Indiana
United States
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January 7, 2007
1961 Posts
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 Posted: August 18, 2008, 12:48 pm - IP Logged

In the world of statistics, 2:4 does not equal 1:2.  Chuck hit on the answer - because each combination has the exact chances of being the winning selection.  You can't simplify the odds because the 197 million represents the potential combinations.  No matter how many tickets you buy (or combinations you hold) there is still a chance for 197 million outcomes.  Buying four tickets does not reduce the possible outcomes to 49 million.

I know it seems logical to simplify the equation, but that is not correct when considering odds.  Each ticket has the same chance of winning, no matter how many you hold - 1 in 197 million.

Look. If I buy 2 Powerball tickets, MY odds are going to be 1 in 97.5 million. I own both tickets. I'm not making millions of combinations disappear either. There is still 195 million possible outcomes, 2 of which I have. I'm just simplifying a fraction.

Gonna win.

CT
United States
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May 21, 2008
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 Posted: August 19, 2008, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

If you were to buy all 195 million UNIQUE combinations, you would not say that you have 195 million tickets each with 1 in 195 million odds of winning (which would be true however).  You would say you have 195,000,000 / 195,000,000 (or 1 in 1) chances of winning.

The same holds true if you have 97.5 million UNIQUE tickets.  You have half of the possible combinations, so you have a 1 in 2 chance of winning.

Indiana
United States
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January 7, 2007
1961 Posts
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 Posted: August 19, 2008, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

If you were to buy all 195 million UNIQUE combinations, you would not say that you have 195 million tickets each with 1 in 195 million odds of winning (which would be true however).  You would say you have 195,000,000 / 195,000,000 (or 1 in 1) chances of winning.

The same holds true if you have 97.5 million UNIQUE tickets.  You have half of the possible combinations, so you have a 1 in 2 chance of winning.

You should assume that when discussing combinations, that the person is talking about unique combinations unless they specifically say they aren't. I don't know why people come into a thread saying "But it has to be UNIQUE!". Yes, we already know that.

Gonna win.

50
mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
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 Posted: August 19, 2008, 2:35 pm - IP Logged

Discussions about how to express odds, how to best claim a jackpot once it's won and who should share it will alway be around as long as posters have nothing to add to an intelligent discussion about how to win a jackpot.  Such discussions don't enlighten anyone about winning a lottery which is why most people read these threads.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *

Texas
United States
Member #33718
February 24, 2006
754 Posts
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 Posted: August 20, 2008, 7:17 am - IP Logged

This is the fifth redesign for the best-known multi-state jackpot game since it was created in 1992. The last change was in August 2005. Changes to the current game are expected to be in place by January 2009.

Does anyone know what the exact date will be of the first drawing with the matrix change?

Jefferson City, MO
United States
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September 20, 2007
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 Posted: August 20, 2008, 12:04 pm - IP Logged

I think it still has to go through some approval process.  The release says it has a target date of "January."

Captain Lotto

"Every day is a good day!"

50

United States
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June 30, 2004
23641 Posts
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 Posted: September 7, 2008, 10:13 pm - IP Logged

I agree it's insane, but it was at 1 in 147M.   I mean, how many times has anyone here won a pick-5 game with odds of 1 in 377k?

Can someone please tell me what the odds of getting the 5 balls will be?  Should be around 1 in 5.1M, right?  If that's the case, the MM game in FL has a lot better odds.  It's a 4 of 44 and 1 of 22 (MB) game.

Think PB is shooting itself in the foot.  When people can't even come close to winning the FL Lotto with odds of "only" 1 in 23M, I don't see how they can expect to win PB.  I think increasing the 5/5 prize is a good idea...but 59 numbers?  Yikes!  I just don't see this game being a big hit here in FL, but we can only wait & see.

I hope you win it...

Really, I do.

OLD/Vtrac

United States
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January 23, 2005
933 Posts
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 Posted: November 7, 2008, 10:51 pm - IP Logged

I won Pick 5 a few years ago (Matrix 38 or 39 I think) playing 2 boards. I don't like matrix changes because not only increasing the odds again but wrecking my best algorithms and having to start a new draw history. After I won the 5 the matrix changed I never got above 3 numbers. By the time my prg. gets a grab on it they change it again! I would rather see more 20M winners than a few per year 200M winners. More people would play if there were more winners at least close to where they live sometimes.

Hopefully at some point, every State will be either PB or MM so there will be no more of this lame excuse when adding a new State to make the game more difficult. I think Florida is the last one of that size that didn't belong to anything.

PS: Warning- in case you are unaware, HOT Lotto is COMPUTERIZED.

Virginia Beach,Va
United States
Member #65376
September 25, 2008
1180 Posts
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 Posted: November 7, 2008, 11:06 pm - IP Logged

Just play the first 55 numbers. the other 4 numbers won't be out very often maybe  6.9362% of the time.

CT
United States
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May 21, 2008
781 Posts
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 Posted: November 8, 2008, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

Well you could say any 4 numbers won't come out (on average) more than 6.7797% of the time.  But by that logic, playing the first 51 would give you an advantage as well since the last 8 should only show 13.559% of the time :)

Virginia Beach,Va
United States
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September 25, 2008
1180 Posts
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 Posted: November 8, 2008, 9:03 pm - IP Logged

Well you could say any 4 numbers won't come out (on average) more than 6.7797% of the time.  But by that logic, playing the first 51 would give you an advantage as well since the last 8 should only show 13.559% of the time :)

Good Point!

Here is the 2008 Powerball Results _ 36 of 89 Drawing had a number draw 50 or above,

53 drawing had no numbers above 50

Jan - 3 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Feb - 2 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Mar - 1 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Apr -  4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

May - 1 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Jun -  5 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Jul  -  7 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Aug -  4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Sep -  5 of the 8 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Oct -  4 of the 9 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

Nov  - 0 of the 2 Drawing had a number 50 or higher

710 total number only 45 numbers were 50 and above and this counts multi 50+ number in each drawing

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