'Fireball' feature now on sale
Includes video report
By Todd Northrop
On Sept. 1, Illinois Lottery retailers will begin offering a new, optional feature called Fireball to its long-standing Pick 3 and Pick 4 daily draw games.
The new play option provides a chance to obtain more winning combinations.
The standard Pick 3 and Pick 4 games remain the same, as does the drawing schedule (seven days a week, twice a day) and game ticket price (starts at 50 cents).
Beginning Sunday, Sept. 1, players have the option to add Fireball for a cost equivalent to the player's original base wager. For example, if someone wagers 50 cents on Pick 3 and adds the Fireball option, the cost of adding this option is an additional 50 cents (or $1 total cost).
A player does not have to select Fireball to play or win the Pick 3 and Pick 4 games. If someone chooses to play Fireball, the choice applies to all games contained on a single play slip.
"The Illinois Lottery launched these games over 30 years ago, and today we feel that it is time to refresh Pick 3 and Pick 4 to increase the winning experience for our players," said Francesco Parola, VP of Sales and Marketing for Northstar Lottery Group. "Ultimately, we want to appeal to more people across Illinois to play exciting games like Pick 3 and Pick 4. We will support this new feature with a statewide marketing campaign that kicks off September 1."
How it Works
A single Fireball drawing is held after each Pick 3 and Pick 4 drawing. For each Fireball drawing, one ball is selected, which can be either a numbered ball or an unnumbered ball.
When a numbered Fireball ball is drawn, the number on that ball may be used to replace any one of the numbers drawn in the preceding Pick 3 or Pick 4 drawing to create winning combinations.
If the Fireball number is the same as one of the player's numbers, and the player's numbers match the numbers drawn for the player's play style, a bonus prize will be awarded. For example, if a player wagered 1-2-3 straight and those same numbers were drawn in the regular Pick 3 drawing, they could win yet another straight prize payout if the Fireball number was 1, 2, or 3, because replacing one of the numbers drawn with the same Fireball number would result in another straight win.
The Fireball ball is drawn from a pool of numbered and unnumbered balls (10 numbered balls 0–9 and 10 unnumbered balls for Pick 3; 10 numbered balls 0–9 and 20 unnumbered balls for Pick 4). If an unnumbered ball is drawn for Fireball, there is no additional opportunity to win prizes in that draw. When a numbered Fireball ball is selected it does not guarantee a cash prize will result — you still have to match one the number combination on your ticket using the Fireball number as a replacement for any one number in the drawing results.
You can only win a prize using the Fireball number if you purchase the Fireball option when you buy your lottery ticket.
The winning numbers, including the Fireball number, will be displayed on Lottery Post's Illinois Lottery Results page soon after each drawing. The drawings will continue to take place at 12:40 p.m. and 9:22 p.m. and will be broadcast live on WGN TV. Overall odds of winning a Pick 3 or Pick 4 prize vary based on the type of wager.
Play slips used for the old Pick 3 and Pick 4 games will not work for the new games. New play slips will be available by September 1 at all Illinois Lottery retailers that sell Pick 3 and Pick 4.
VIDEO: How to play with the new Fireball feature
This is a good and wonderful idea . I will try it out but in the back of my mind i think the first fireball l see is a hole in my wallect. They adding so much to cash3 and cash4 l bet it won't be long before we get big mac fries to go with it. Lol
I think it is a rip off. They are trying to generate more money off the P3 and P4 to pay for some of their other loser games. If the "fireball" was a good deal, they wouldn't have 10 numbered balls and 10 un numbered balls. They would have a tier type payoff instead.
Hmmm...I wonder if this Fireball bet is actually a good deal or not.(better or worse than base 48-50% payout) The lottery never likes to show people what the total payout of a game is, or the side bets.
Odds and prize table from IL lottery site:
Agreed, Littleoldlady.
Consdidering this:
The Fireball ball is drawn from a pool of numbered and unnumbered balls (10 numbered balls 0–9 and 10 unnumbered balls for Pick 3; 10 numbered balls 0–9 and 20 unnumbered balls for Pick 4). If an unnumbered ball is drawn for Fireball, there is no additional opportunity to win prizes in that draw. When a numbered Fireball ball is selected it does not guarantee a cash prize will result — you still have to match one of the number combinations on your ticket using the Fireball number as a replacement for any one number on your ticket.
we can break it down into Northstar telling the Pcik 3 Pplayers thanks you for playing and the Pick 4 players we really want to thank you for playing. 10 numbered balls and 20 unnumbered balls.......unless they offered a side bet of number or unnumbered fireball this shouldn't be allowed.
This was supposed to start Auguest 25th but was postponed until September 1st to 'enhance' the game.
I'm not so sure it's a ripoff, because the Fireball number can be used in any position, and it is possible that it could help you win multiple times. It might be a useful add-on especially if you play straights. I'd be interested to see a mathematician dissect the odds when playing the Fireball option in different wagering scenarios.
we need this in pa ...im always off by one maybe i'll hit more often
This is the biggest rip off. If I was y'all guys I stick to my same games you always been playing. Don't change your pattern because as soon you change your pattern that's when your numbers start to hit. Keep playing your same numbers. All they trying to do is make more money out of everyone. I'm just playing real about it. They are full of BS and they think they have all the sense. Play wisely
The Best Idea Ever Illinois Lottery Fireball sounds amazing
Seems like it makes the 50/50 chance of winning now 25/75.
Have you enlisted the services of a mathematician?
I think I like it. It's like a wild card. Wish I can play it.
Scam. They carefully word it to make it seem like a deal.
You pay $1 for a 50 cent ($250) wager with Fireball. That brings average return of 37.5 cents.
Or pay $1 for a 1 dollar wager ($500) without Fireball and get an average return of 50 cents.
My first figure omits additional $$$, but one of your numbers will only match the Fireball 5% of the time, so the "bonus winnings" are rare if ever.
No. I asked my drinking buddy.
Yes, Fireball Roberts was a winner.
Scam is a pretty harsh word, don't you think? They'd need some serious cojones to sell a new version of a game with more ways to win, but degrade the payout from 50% to 37.5% and think nobody will notice.
If I'm interpreting the prizes payments correctly, total payout with Fireball is significantly higher. About 61% for Straight and about 57% for Box, compared to the base of 50% and 48% respectively.
Those additional $$$ bonus winnings are certainly not trivial, nor a "rare if ever" occurrence. They are a near mathematical certainty.
This new option of playing with Fireball, really will increase interest of old & new players of Ill. pic3 and 4 game. After 30 years it could use a small make .
Just so everyone is aware, when the first Pick 3 drawing with Fireball was drawn this afternoon, the Illinois Lottery published the results as a "blank" (non-numbered) Fireball. It seems that was not correct, because sometime this afternoon or this evening they changed it from "blank" to a Fireball number 9.
Naturally, the Illinois Lottery Results page at LP has been updated with the correction.
The midday Pick 4 Fireball drawing is still showing as a blank however, so I assume that is correct.
Tonights drawings were a blank and a blank.
The non numbered balls are blue and the caller said........."I'm so sorry..."
Northstar, the private firm that took over the runinng of the Illinois lottery, has a knack for turning $1 games into $2 games, granted at the player's option, so far anyway.
Someone here on LP not long ago said that Northstar just wasn't making the money for the lottery that they promised, that could very well be the motivation for these addittions to these games.
This is definitely, not a credibility, or a confidence enhancer. Conspiracy theorists are going to have a field day with this. My main concern is, why so many blank balls, instead of just one blank ball, to help represent the field of 0-9. The closer one looks at this, the more apparent it appears, that something really fishy is going on. A blatant effort designed to RIPOFF the consumers, most of the time.
Now, that the first human error has happen in the Fireball drawing . I know I'm going to be watching both drawing on WGN.
Well, I think the question is, if you're going to spend an extra 50 cents, is it better to spend it on another pick or on the Fireball. You could be right, it could be a ripoff. Or you could be wrong. Honestly, I don't know the answer because the odds calculation on the Fireball is a little too complex for me. That's why I said earlier that the answer really requires a mathematician, or at least someone who could compare the odds.
This is a pretty ingenious idea. I fear, though, that a lot of people are going to get confused by this. Even I'm a little sketchy on the details. Looks like I'm going to have to get the ol' blog going again.
When a numbered Fireball ball is drawn, the number on that ball may be used to replace any one of the numbers drawn in the preceding Pick 3 or Pick 4 drawing to create winning combinations.
If the Fireball number is the same as one of the player's numbers, and the player's numbers match the numbers drawn for the player's play style, a bonus prize will be awarded. For example, if a player wagered 1-2-3 straight and those same numbers were drawn in the regular Pick 3 drawing, they could win yet another straight prize payout if the Fireball number was 1, 2, or 3, because replacing one of the numbers drawn with the same Fireball number would result in another straight win.
From the first sentence it looks like if a player wagered on 124 straight and 123 was drawn they could still collect the Fireball prize if 4 is drawn. And it should be the same if 124 was a box bet. The extra bet gives a player a 1 in 20 chance of winning the second bet if they correctly match two digits. To win twice a player must correctly pick the winning combination and beat the 3 in 20 chances of matching the Fireball.
If the idea is to win twice, the player gets better odds by betting the same combination twice and not use Fireball. If the idea is to create a winning bet out of a losing bet, the Fireball chances are 1 in 20. Since the player is required to match two digits, betting on front pair (12-all), back pair (all-24), and outside pair (1-all-4) might be an option using Fireball providing a blank isn't drawn.
With a 50/50 chance of drawing a blank and if they keep drawing blanks, encouraging players to wager on Fireball will be very difficult.
Stack,
This tells any aware player all they have to know:
The Fireball ball is drawn from a pool of numbered and unnumbered balls (10 numbered balls 0–9 and 10 unnumbered balls for Pick 3; 10 numbered balls 0–9 and 20 unnumbered balls for Pick 4).
On the Pick 3 it's 10 and 10, on the Pick 4 10 and 20.......the house has 2 to 1 the best of it on the Fireball.
THANKS FOR PLAYING, CHUMP.
Consider what this Northstar group did with the Illiois Pick 5, formerly Little Lotto now Lucky Day Lotto. For an extra dollar you can play Ez Match and if one of your Pick 5 numbers matches one of the five Ez Match numbers you win $1 to $500. The odds against winning $500 are 210,000:1. Hello, just put the addittional dollar on another Pick 5 ticket, $100,000 progressive.
These guys are marketers and self-promoters but not really doing much for the players.
Dear Northstar,
Here's an idea. Since there are going to be four Fireballs a day, and some of them will be blanks (most of them in the Pick 4), offer a side bet of the days Fireballs. (Wonder what the odds on this one would be, 0-9 plus 30 blanks to figure!)
Today's result was 9 _ _ _.
People could play the side bet just like Pick 4, straight, straight box, etc....and also a bet on the total would be interesting, too. Another side bet could be one number, three blanks, all blanks, all numbers, etc....
Sincerely,
Coin Toss, LP
From the way I read it and saw in the video, there are 4 chances to win when you play plus Fireball. The base prize, plus up to 3 additional prizes if a matching Fireball comes up to for a match in the 3 different positions. But you can only get 4 prizes (base plus 3 bonus) if you played a triple, and up to 3 prizes with a double, and up to 2 prizes with a single. Like they have shown for today:
I looked at the Straight prize, given the various scenarios, and the total payout for the game increases from base 50% return to 61% when the plus Fireball is played. I have also checked this with a simulation which shows 61-62% return with any number type. Box is a little more complicated so I just estimated that, could be around 54-57% return compared to 48% return for regular P3 box. And with the potential for all the extra matches and prizes, they actually needed to add the 10 blank balls otherwise the game would payout 100% total!(zero profit)
Looks very interesting. Will be curious to see actual payouts players are getting.
i don't this is a good idea,this will creat confussion.
In the case of the pick 3 a player would only need to focus on getting two numbers exact or box on the ticket and then take the chance of a fireball being drawn. Pick two numbers in your selection and throw any number in for the third ball.
All low pair
all high pair
one low one high pair.
Only a sample of how I would approach the fireball game taking the chance on a red ball being drawn.
Run some combos like this example in an exact order of your choice and take your chance on a fireball number being drawn.
Only four ways a pick 3 can fall using low pairs or high pairs.
all low
all high
one low two high
two low one high
An example of combinations without duplicating low pairs or high pairs
01234
combo_ pairs
012__ 01 02 12
034__ 03 04 34
135__ 13 15 35
146__ 14 16 46
237__ 23 27 37
248__ 24 28 48
low pair 01 02 03 04 12 13 14 23 24 34
low high 15 16 27 28 35 37 46 48
____________________________
56789
combo_ pairs
567__ 56 57 67
589__ 58 59 89
680__ 06 08 68
693__ 36 39 69
781__ 17 18 78
790__ 07 09 79
high pair 56 57 58 59 67 68 69 78 79 89
low high 06 07 08 09 17 18 36 39
Harsh but a reality. The lottery never implements changes unless they would benefit the lottery itself, not the player.
I think your calculations are off. When playing straight with Fireball if a player wins they do not win $500 on a $1 wager. They win the 50 cent wager which returns $250. Only if one of their balls matches the Fireball do they win again
That's why I said they carefully worded it. All you have to do is multiply the odds by the winnings to get the expected return. 3/2000 times $250 is definitely worse than 1/1000 times $500. So 95% of the time they lose 12.5 cents more. Boxes and everything else has worse returns anyway so I only calculated for straight.
No, you don't understand the lottery industry. You're a new member so you should read up on some other articles some more.
Over the years the lotteries have introduced games with successively higher payouts above the standard 50% return of daily and jackpot games.(particularly scratch games) The reasoning being higher payouts brings in new players, or entices existing players to play more. A lot of people complain about lotteries trying to boost profits, but they can't really do that. Their profit margin is largely fixed in the legislation. What they can do is increase revenue, thereby increasing funds for public benefit. But they can't line their pockets with extra profits.
TX recently introduced a new All or Nothing game with a 56% return. But they launched it with a fatal flaw of not having a liability cap, so they had to suspend it, but it was brought back after a rules revision
SC recently created a new type of Cash 6 game with a 74% return. But it is being cancelled due to poor sales. You wonder why they come up with these new games and don't advertise the increased payout, and the prize structure is somewhat confusing, and they are surprized when sales are lackluster.
As for this new IL Pick 3 plus Fireball, my initial numbers were a little off. The return is actually higher at 62.5% return for Straight play. Read the rules and watch the video on the IL lottery website. Playing Fireball does not diminish your straight bet, it gives you chances to win up to 3 more times with an extra matching side bet, up to $2,000 for Pick 3.(and $25,000 for Pick 4) Hit ratio for basic Pick 3 straight is 0.1%, but with plus Fireball it is 0.25% hits with all the other ways to win.
If you think a double is going to drop with a fireball number dropping. You have all the trips to play.
Playing trips with a fireball number dropping would be an exact order bet. But the fireball number has got to drop to win unless the trip selected drops.
Well I am neither new to this forum nor the "lottery industry;" however, I am calculating payouts using "with Fireball" odds. I do not see other payoffs listed anywhere in the rules. I can't really comment on it further without other information
Oh really, my mistake. Your account ID says new member, Sept 1, 2013. In general, you aren't supposed to make more than one account on LP. What was your old ID?
As for AoN, you say my 56% number is incorrect and should be 51%, so could you then show me your math, and compare that to the graph in the link in my post above?
For the IL Pick3 plus Fireball, the basic odds should look something like this:
You do not have to have an account to browse the forums or read articles.
Yes, I corrected my post by removing that claim. It was I in fact who was wrong in my math (not counting jackpot AoN twice). Anyway, AoN is a native game with no add-on wagers so I don't think it is accurate to compare it to a game that features side bets.
You are comparing returns for $1 plus $1; I was calculating 50 cent plus 50 cent.
You play 50 cent wager on 1-2-4 straight and add Fireball. Lottery draws 1-2-3 but the Fireball is blank (happens 50% of the time). You lose $1.
You play 50 cent wager on 1-2-4 straight and add Fireball. Lottery draws 1-2-3 but the Fireball is 5 or any number not drawn or blank (happens 95% of the time). You lose $1.
You play 50 cent wager on 1-2-4 straight and add Fireball. Lottery draws 1-2-3 and the Fireball is 3 (happens 5% of the time)! You win $250, because it replaces your number (50 cent wager payoff is $250).
You play 50 cent wager on 1-2-4 straight and add Fireball. Lottery draws 1-2-4 and the Fireball is 6 or blank or any number not drawn (again 95% of the time). You win $250 on a bet you would have won $500 for the same cost.
You play 50 cent wager on 1-2-4 straight and add Fireball. Lottery draws 1-2-4 and the Fireball is 4 (happens 5% of the time)! I am pretty sure you only win $500 but maybe it is $250 x 3 since there are 3 digits. Okay let's say it multiplies, so you win $750.
Now read all of those outcomes and tell me how paying twice your bet is better. You will only either match or use the Fireball to replace a number 5% of the time. The payoff would have to be MUCH bigger than what I'm seeing to make it worth doubling your cost.
Gah, editing time limits!
I think this illustrates it better.....using "Straight" since naturally it has highest EV.
It helps you win an additional 5% of the time, but when you do win it helps you lose half your winnings most of the time! Even if they pay $750 for Fireball, the average gain is $117.42 vs. $249.00 without. Yeah, sounds like a real bargain!
"These guys are marketers and self-promoters but not really doing much for the players."
To win both bets, the player must first beat 999 to 1 odds to get 3 chances out of 20 to win the second bet too. IMO, there is no real extra value by playing Fireball trying to win both bets when we can simply bet on the same combo twice.
The My 3 game gives the player the chance to turn a losing bet into a winning bet by lowering the straight and box payoffs and not a bad bet for players that can't hit straight or box. The Fireball is just an extension of turning a losing bet into a winning by giving longer odds of winning and giving a larger payoff for doing the same thing.
They already know players believe they can beat 175 million to 1 odds based on MM and PB sales volumes so why not offer a pick-3 option with much lower odds than MM and PB?
This new game is very unique and can be confusing. I also found a error on the news story that I will report to Todd, maybe that is also part of the confusion.
You play 50 cent wager on 1-2-4 straight and add Fireball. Lottery draws 1-2-3 and the Fireball is 3(happens 5% of the time)! You win $250, because it replaces your number (50 cent wager payoff is $250).
Actually, this one you lose. Fireball number replaces winning numbers, not your numbers.
You play 50 cent wager on 1-2-4 straight and add Fireball. Lottery draws 1-2-4 and the Fireball is 4(happens 5% of the time)! I am pretty sure you only win $500 but maybe it is $250 x 3 since there are 3 digits. Okay let's say it multiplies, so you win $750.
Actually, this one you win $250 str plus $250 bonus = $500.
Look at this picture, it tells a thousand words:
Number drawn 605 and Fireball 9. This gives you 4 chances to win: 605, 905, 695, 609. but since this is a single and the Fireball is a different number, your single player number can only match 1 prize in this example.
As you know, if you're talking about EV, you can't just evaluate a few plays to determine the payout of a game, the EV is the average over a long period of time or infinity. You have to get the answer from the odds, or run it on a simulator.
I've done both, looking at the odds and prize structure to see what it would payout overall. And I also mocked up a test that simulates millions of plays in under a minute to verify the payouts. It is 0.625 EV for Pick 3 plus Fireball straight, and 0.6 for Box. That beats 0.5 and 0.48 for basic pick 3, and doesn't matter how much you bet, 50c, $1, $2, the EV is the same.
Yes this is certainly a tricky game. I will be withholding further conclusions until I hear back from Illinois
I was already aware of the errors in my post (hence the following post); unfortunately I didn't catch them until the post editing expiry had passed.
It is a very unique game, the most complex I have seen in a while. If it confuses LP people, what can they expect from the general public? I don't think it is explained very well on the website. The video is best, but not complete.
But I like what I see so far. I wish we had this in CA,(it would be pari-mutuel of course) I'd be all over that thing testing it out in the first week.
Is there nobody on LP from Illinois that can get us some real results? Don't see any mention Fireball in the P3 IL thread.
Romancandle?
I don't believe there is an error in the news story, but if you see one then by all means report it. What is the error?
I thought I sent you a message, but maybe didn't go through.
The How it Works section, end of 4th paragraph:
you still have to match one of the number combinations on your ticket using the Fireball number as a replacement for any one number on your ticket.
Should be:
you still have to match one of the number combinations on your ticket using the Fireball number as a replacement for any one number of the winning numbers.
From the IL Pick 3 FAQ section:
http://www.illinoislottery.com/en-us/Pick_3.html
What Is plus FIREBALL? How Do I Win With This Add-On Feature?
After the winning numbers have been drawn for both Pick 3 and Pick 4 base games, an additional ball will be drawn for each game from a pool of numbered and non-numbered balls (10 numbered plus FIREBALLS [0–9] and 10 blank balls in the pool for Pick 3). For Pick 4, there are 10 numbered plus FIREBALLS [0–9] and 20 blank balls. If a numbered plus FIREBALL is drawn, players who selected plus FIREBALL will automatically win if the plus FIREBALL number can replace any number of the winning numbers selected to create a winning combination that matches the player’s numbers.
Example: A player selects the numbers 2 5 3 and adds plus FIREBALL to their straight wager. The lottery draws the winning numbers 1 5 3, in this example with a plus FIREBALL number of 2 . In this instance, the plus FIREBALL number 2 would replace the first digit of the winning numbers drawn to create the combination. Because the player selected the plus FIREBALL add-on feature, they were able to turn a non-winning ticket into a winning ticket by matching the new winning number combination ( 2 5 3 ) to their selected numbers ( 2 5 3 ).
The way I understand it the fireball number must match the losing digit on your selected number
Player selection 253
lottery winning number 153
The fireball number must be a 2 for the player to win.
You match two of the three lottery winning digits either exact or box depending on the wager. Whatever your losing digit is must match the fireball number.
I thought the fireball number whatever it is would replace whatever your losing digit is.