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Tickets for updated Mega Millions game on sale Saturday

Topic closed. 104 replies. Last post 3 years ago by TheOtherOne.

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NYSlugger 777's avatar - 777
NY
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August 21, 2007
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Posted: October 19, 2013, 1:10 am - IP Logged

I love how the lotteries when making the game much, much, much, much worse always announce that they're making it better.

If they weren't the government, we could sue them for fraud.

In no way is it better odds of winning a prize other than matching the mega ball. The previous odds of winning the Mega Millions Jackpot were 1 in 175,000,000. The New odds are 1 in 258,890,850. Correct me if i'm wrong but I think the odds of winning the powerball jackpot are about 1 in 195,000,000, which means it will now be easier to win a  jackpot in Powerball than it is to win one in Mega Millions. Yeah they made it easier to win a prize all right.. they made it easier to get your one dollar back for matching the mega ball but never mentioned it will be a whole lot tougher to win the jackpot prize.

This new Mega Millions game will have the toughest odds of winning a Jackpot prize out of any State Lottery game known to the public yet they are saying "it's easier".Green laugh

 

The Only prize you will have better odds at is matching the mega ball by itself. I'm a little confused by this article. It says to match only the mega Ball the odd's are 1 in 21.... But since there is 15 mega balls to choose from how is that possible? Shouldn't the correct the odds be 1 in 15??

Then the odds state to match the Mega Ball + 1 White ball odds are 1 in 56. Odds of dong that are much tougher then that because there are 75 white balls to choose from plus 15 mega balls so the odds have to be over 1 in 75. SOmething is not right about the odds of winning they have listed in this article. Hopefully they won't put those incorrects odds of winning various prizes on the new play slips because that would be incorrect and misleading information to the players.

.

    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    Happyland
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    Member #146344
    September 1, 2013
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    Posted: October 19, 2013, 1:46 am - IP Logged

    In no way is it better odds of winning a prize other than matching the mega ball. The previous odds of winning the Mega Millions Jackpot were 1 in 175,000,000. The New odds are 1 in 258,890,850. Correct me if i'm wrong but I think the odds of winning the powerball jackpot are about 1 in 195,000,000, which means it will now be easier to win a  jackpot in Powerball than it is to win one in Mega Millions. Yeah they made it easier to win a prize all right.. they made it easier to get your one dollar back for matching the mega ball but never mentioned it will be a whole lot tougher to win the jackpot prize.

    This new Mega Millions game will have the toughest odds of winning a Jackpot prize out of any State Lottery game known to the public yet they are saying "it's easier".Green laugh

     

    The Only prize you will have better odds at is matching the mega ball by itself. I'm a little confused by this article. It says to match only the mega Ball the odd's are 1 in 21.... But since there is 15 mega balls to choose from how is that possible? Shouldn't the correct the odds be 1 in 15??

    Then the odds state to match the Mega Ball + 1 White ball odds are 1 in 56. Odds of dong that are much tougher then that because there are 75 white balls to choose from plus 15 mega balls so the odds have to be over 1 in 75. SOmething is not right about the odds of winning they have listed in this article. Hopefully they won't put those incorrects odds of winning various prizes on the new play slips because that would be incorrect and misleading information to the players.

    Mega Millions cost $1, Powerball costs $2. Odds of Powerball jackpot are 1 in 175,223,510. So to compare by cost, Mega Millions is still better because you can buy 2 tickets for the price of one Powerball. That gives you odds of 2 in 258,890,850 or simplified as 1 in 129,445,425. 

    The odds are stated correctly. Remember, there is the chance of matching more than just the Megaball. So the chances of ONLY matching the Megaball are actually harder.

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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      Posted: October 19, 2013, 2:01 am - IP Logged


      I was originally bummed about the changes and was planning to  stop buying tickets  until I realized the 2nd prize could be multiplied up to $5 million with the megaplier.  1 in 18.5 million odds for a 2-5 million dollar payout on  two dollar bet is not great but not bad either.  I probably won't give them as much play as I did before but I will probably buy at least 1 ticket per draw.

      Come to think of it, I am contemplating ditching other lotto games, including The Powerball to play exclusively The Mega. Since The golden balls have been reduced to only 15 i.e. 1 through 15, I could play 15 draws with the same combination and should lady luck smile on me with great luck and say, match similar white balls wow, that $1m*15=$15m i.e. that means i have used my 15* to attain my multiplier that is far far better than the prepaid multipliers are told that pay up to only $6m. If this option is allowed and I can afford it, I may put down $15 for one day draw i.e. for Tuesday and another one for Friday i.e. a total of $30 which is not terribly bad and is affordable i.e. the sameamou of  money people play weekly (and at times daily0 in the casinos. at the moment, I play the Mega, Powerball, Fantasy Five and The Arizona Pick. I am tired of losing very much at these games in diversity i.e. winning the Powerball once in five months and the daily Fantasy 5 only two times this month (last month it was very much worse i.e. only one time, despite its being a daily game). With playing 15 draws in one day with the coming Megamillions matrix, at least one is psychologically assured of winning something. For instance, with the recent draw using the new matrix with 1 being the golden number, I could have won $2 which goes a long way in discounting my $15 investment....something to think about.

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        NY
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        Posted: October 19, 2013, 2:16 am - IP Logged

        The odds for PB are about 1 in 175 million, almost exactly the same as MM was until a few hours ago. While the odds for PB might be better now, you have to spend twice as much money to get those odds. If you spend that for MM your odds will be about 1 in 130 million, which is significantly better than PB. Of course even with 2 tickets, your chances of scoring the 2nd place prize are still only 1 in 9 million, which is only slightly better than half as likely to win 2nd place in PB.

        The odds of getting the mega ball right are 1 in 15, but that includes all of the mega ball plus regular ball combinations. The 1 in 21 odds are for getting the mega ball right and also getting all of the others wrong.

        The odds for the mega ball plus one regular ball are based on having 5 chances to get that one regular ball. When they draw the first ball 70 of the 75 won't match any of the 5 numbers you chose, so there's a 70/75 chance it won't match any of your 5. If it doesn't match there will be 74 balls left, 69 of which won't match any of your 5, so there's a 69/74 chance of going 0 for 2. Again assuming you don't get a match it will be 68/73 for the 3rd ball, then 67/72 and 66/71 for the final ball. Putting it all together, the chances of not getting any of the 5 is  70/75 X 69/74 X 68/73 X 67/72 X 66/71, or about 70%. That leaves almost a 30% chance of matching 1 or more of the 5. The 1 in 15 chance of matching the mega ball times the .7 chance of missing all of the regualr balls makes the odds of matching only the mega ball 1/15 x .7, which is 1 in 24.4.

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          Posted: October 19, 2013, 2:21 am - IP Logged


          I was originally bummed about the changes and was planning to  stop buying tickets  until I realized the 2nd prize could be multiplied up to $5 million with the megaplier.  1 in 18.5 million odds for a 2-5 million dollar payout on  two dollar bet is not great but not bad either.  I probably won't give them as much play as I did before but I will probably buy at least 1 ticket per draw.

          Sure you can have a chance at $5 million, but that's only if you pay twice a much for a ticket and the megaplier is 5 instead of 2,3 or 4. Depending on what state you're in a $1 ticket may get you better odds of winning the jackpot in the state game, which can be considerably more than $5 million. The overall structure of MM makes it a poor choice until the jackpot gets considerably bigger than the starting value.

            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
            Happyland
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            Posted: October 19, 2013, 2:27 am - IP Logged

            That's an okay approximation but it's better to think in terms of combinations.

            There are C(75,5) ways to get 5 of 75 and C(70,5) ways to get 0 of 75 [sometimes stated C(75-5,5-0)]. There are C(15,1) ways to get 1 of 15, or simply 15.

            C(75,5)/C(70,5) * C(15,1) = ~21

            Or you can go even simpler than that and just divide 258,890,850 by C(70,5) or 12,103,014 to get the same answer when rounded.

            You can do this in Excel using the COMBIN function, or manually using the factorial formula.

            As far as Megaplier goes, the average weighted multiplier for the new game is about 3.8667. From an EV perspective it is better to buy Megaplier vs. two tickets if the jackpot is less than about $85 million. A similiar analysis can be done for Powerball and state games that offer side bets.

            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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              Posted: October 19, 2013, 2:37 am - IP Logged

              Sure you can have a chance at $5 million, but that's only if you pay twice a much for a ticket and the megaplier is 5 instead of 2,3 or 4. Depending on what state you're in a $1 ticket may get you better odds of winning the jackpot in the state game, which can be considerably more than $5 million. The overall structure of MM makes it a poor choice until the jackpot gets considerably bigger than the starting value.

              What I expect is that one will see months and months go by without a winner, and small jackpot jumps because of low sales.   However, if the jackpot run out on the order of a year, it might reach half a billion annuity.    However, as the high priced Powerball tickets will be regularly producing jackpots on that scale, no one will be impressed.

              When Powerball went to two billion - again with a lie that the odds were better, even though the expectation value was considerably lower - the Megamillions game was essentially ruined.   Since most if not all states have the same games, the losses in Megamillions certainly offset the Powerball increased profits.

              One would hope that this new move is a failure - similar moves have failed in other State lotteries, in California and in Pennsylvania - since if it succeeds the lotteries will move to odds of one in one billion or more.   If this seems unlikely, we should consider that the odds on Powerball (at least seen as expectation value) and Megamillions are ten times higher than what State lotteries used to give.

              They'll be more lottery losers than ever, as there will be way fewer winners.

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                Chattanooga, TN
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                Posted: October 19, 2013, 3:41 am - IP Logged

                Good bye old mega millions... how i will miss you. I think that the 5 of 5 prize is awesome the chance of winning 5 million dollars for only 2 dollars is amazing. In my home state you have to pay 25.00 to play to win 5 million and it is annuity. in Georgia, my other money pit... you pay 20.00 to win 5 million cash... i think i will save my 20.00 and purchase 10 tickets with multiplier... one for each of the next 10 draws... people piss and moan because the odds but truthfully they are all hard to beat. weather it is 1:1,000,000 or 1:258,000,000. The only way you win is God blesses you... OR Luck! I prefer blessings from God! Luck is a little too messy for me!

                  JackpotWanna's avatar - squiz

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                  Posted: October 19, 2013, 4:07 am - IP Logged

                  Nice changes.  Jackpots will be huge!!

                    rock_nc's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg
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                    Posted: October 19, 2013, 8:53 am - IP Logged

                    I will play both MM and PB because I'm so bloody desperate. Razz

                    "I will play both MM and PB because I'm so bloody desperate" Hey Golfer1960, that goes for me too! I play to win anything, any amount of a win will suit me just fine. May not put much money in on tickets, 4 bucks on MM only on Friday's, 4 bucks on PB only on Saturday's.. Don't play any of them on Tue,Wed...Just waiting for my numbers to come up! All my picks!! Might slip in  Quick Pick every now and then, but not to often. So good luck to all of you tonight!!! Wow Hard to believe I have been on here for ten years now!! Man, time has flew by!

                      golfer1960's avatar - Lottery-003.jpg
                      Eatontown, NJ
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                      Posted: October 19, 2013, 10:38 am - IP Logged

                      In no way is it better odds of winning a prize other than matching the mega ball. The previous odds of winning the Mega Millions Jackpot were 1 in 175,000,000. The New odds are 1 in 258,890,850. Correct me if i'm wrong but I think the odds of winning the powerball jackpot are about 1 in 195,000,000, which means it will now be easier to win a  jackpot in Powerball than it is to win one in Mega Millions. Yeah they made it easier to win a prize all right.. they made it easier to get your one dollar back for matching the mega ball but never mentioned it will be a whole lot tougher to win the jackpot prize.

                      This new Mega Millions game will have the toughest odds of winning a Jackpot prize out of any State Lottery game known to the public yet they are saying "it's easier".Green laugh

                       

                      The Only prize you will have better odds at is matching the mega ball by itself. I'm a little confused by this article. It says to match only the mega Ball the odd's are 1 in 21.... But since there is 15 mega balls to choose from how is that possible? Shouldn't the correct the odds be 1 in 15??

                      Then the odds state to match the Mega Ball + 1 White ball odds are 1 in 56. Odds of dong that are much tougher then that because there are 75 white balls to choose from plus 15 mega balls so the odds have to be over 1 in 75. SOmething is not right about the odds of winning they have listed in this article. Hopefully they won't put those incorrects odds of winning various prizes on the new play slips because that would be incorrect and misleading information to the players.

                      Yo Slugger you are very astute. I read the article and did not pick up on those phony odds they are quoting. Good catch.

                        golfer1960's avatar - Lottery-003.jpg
                        Eatontown, NJ
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                        Posted: October 19, 2013, 10:48 am - IP Logged

                        That's an okay approximation but it's better to think in terms of combinations.

                        There are C(75,5) ways to get 5 of 75 and C(70,5) ways to get 0 of 75 [sometimes stated C(75-5,5-0)]. There are C(15,1) ways to get 1 of 15, or simply 15.

                        C(75,5)/C(70,5) * C(15,1) = ~21

                        Or you can go even simpler than that and just divide 258,890,850 by C(70,5) or 12,103,014 to get the same answer when rounded.

                        You can do this in Excel using the COMBIN function, or manually using the factorial formula.

                        As far as Megaplier goes, the average weighted multiplier for the new game is about 3.8667. From an EV perspective it is better to buy Megaplier vs. two tickets if the jackpot is less than about $85 million. A similiar analysis can be done for Powerball and state games that offer side bets.

                        Metro, I'm confused. Crazy

                         

                        Willis

                          golfer1960's avatar - Lottery-003.jpg
                          Eatontown, NJ
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                          Posted: October 19, 2013, 11:00 am - IP Logged

                          "I will play both MM and PB because I'm so bloody desperate" Hey Golfer1960, that goes for me too! I play to win anything, any amount of a win will suit me just fine. May not put much money in on tickets, 4 bucks on MM only on Friday's, 4 bucks on PB only on Saturday's.. Don't play any of them on Tue,Wed...Just waiting for my numbers to come up! All my picks!! Might slip in  Quick Pick every now and then, but not to often. So good luck to all of you tonight!!! Wow Hard to believe I have been on here for ten years now!! Man, time has flew by!

                          I hear ya Rock. I'm pretty much in every MM and PB drawing. I buy 2 lines in each and play multiple drawings at a time (usually 4 or 5 drawings at a time). I only buy QP's now because I'm afraid my numbers will come out on a day that I don't play. That would be my kind of luck.

                          I stopped at 7-11 today at 7am and got the new bet slip. I was the first one in the store to get it because the guy had to open the pack and give me one.

                          As far as the odds of winning go, it's still virtually impossible!!!!!

                          Good luck brother!!

                          nj lottery

                            HoLeeKau's avatar - YheaShea
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                            Posted: October 19, 2013, 11:14 am - IP Logged

                            Does anyone know how many of each multiplier will be in the queue?  I seem to remember when PowerBall drew multipliers, they had a few 2x's, a couple 3x's, a couple 4x's and one 5x.

                              Romancandle's avatar - moon
                              Upacreek
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                              Posted: October 19, 2013, 11:14 am - IP Logged

                              Anybody notice how much the annunitized JP jumped from the last drawing?... 18 million (37 to 55)... when's the last time that's happened in the past when the advertised JP was below 40 million?

                              I think MM is so confident that nobody will win next Tuesday with these new odds that they're betting the bank on it LOL

                              -RC