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Tickets for updated Mega Millions game on sale Saturday

Topic closed. 104 replies. Last post 3 years ago by TheOtherOne.

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NYSlugger 777's avatar - 777
NY
United States
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August 21, 2007
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Posted: October 22, 2013, 2:59 am - IP Logged

MM sure knows what they're doing. They are banking on everyone to figure out ' hey I can spend$15 each draw and cover all 15 numbers and win SOMETHING'

But with those 75 numbers in the white ball field it is astronomical almost to win.

Also isn't 1:258 million odds astronomical too? I'm not seeing how that equates to 1:129 mill.

I am too having trouble  trying to figure out how 1:258 million equates to 1:129 million myself. Thought I was going crazy for a second lol.

The answer can't be "IF you play two games" because if you play two games then your odds would

2: 258 million . The Answer also cannot be " add megaplier" because adding the megaplier for an extra dollar for each game does not effect the "ODDS' of winning in ANY way... it only increases the payouts (Excluding the jackpot prize).

"LottoMetro" please  explain your answer because I am a bit confused. I will quote you on this you stated >

"Mega Millions cost $1, Powerball costs $2. Odds of Powerball jackpot are 1 in 175,223,510. So to compare by cost, Mega Millions is still better because you can buy 2 tickets for the price of one Powerball. That gives you odds of 2 in 258,890,850 or simplified as 1 in 129,445,425. "

 

  ^ I am sorry but buying two tickets DOES NOT cut your odds of winning the Jackpot in half to 129,445,425 (that would be great IF IT DID though) . It only gives you  the same exact odds you mentioned 2 out of 258,890,850 compared  to 1 out of 285,890,850 which is really not much off what I would consider a "Significant Odds deduction"

.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19828 Posts
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    Posted: October 22, 2013, 4:15 am - IP Logged

    Under the revamped game, the prizes and odds for matching numbers will be as follows.

     

    • Match 1 number + the Mega Ball: $2 (odds are 1 in 56)
    • Match only the Mega Ball: $1 (odds are 1 in 21)

     

    This is the part in the article where I noticed immediately the "NEW"  odds of winning various prizes that are listed are incorrect. How can the Odds of matching ONLY  the mega Ball be 1 in 21, if there are only 15 Mega Balls to choose from?? That would be impossbile. Obviously if I play one game and pick one mega Ball out of the 15 that are avaiable to choose from, my odds of correctly matching "ONLY THE MEGA BALL" ARE 1 in 15.

     

    Now how can matching 1 white ball number from a field of 1 thru 75, PLUS matching a mega ball correctly  from a field of 1 thru 15 in the same event be only1 in 56? Since there are 75 white ball numbers to choose from, your odds will have to automatically be GREATER then 75  because you have to match the mega ball in addition to matching one of the 75 white balls numbers that are available to choose from. Your odds of winning that $2 is WAY TOUGHER than you may think.

    I haven't done any further research on the other new odds that are listed for the other prize levels  but I assume some of the others listed may be incorrect as well, INCLUDING the odds of winning a jackpot prize which may be higher than the stated 1 in 258,890,850. 

    I have not gotten a chance to look at the new playslips yet as I have forgotten to check but if there is anyone that mentioned they have the new playslips, please let us know what odds of winning various prizes are listed in the  new playslips. THanks!

    "This is the part in the article where I noticed immediately the "NEW"  odds of winning various prizes that are listed are incorrect. How can the Odds of matching  ONLY   the mega Ball be 1 in 21, if there are only15 Mega Balls to choose from?? That would be impossbile. Obviously if I play one game and pick one mega Ball out of the 15 that are avaiable to choose from, my odds of correctly matching "ONLY THE MEGA BALL"  ARE 1 in 15."

    Figures don't lie but lairs figure as the saying goes.  The overall odds of winning something are 1 in 14.7

    Out of 258,890,850 possible combinations 4,584,475 are 1+1 and 12,103,014 are 0+1, do the figuring again.

    258,590,850÷4,584,475=56.4712  and 258,590,850÷12,103,014=21.3906

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

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      New Member

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      October 22, 2013
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      Posted: October 22, 2013, 6:41 am - IP Logged

      Did anyone notice in all the hoopla of the changes to the Megamillions game the reduced winning percentage of the jackpot paid out? At one time it was 65%. Now it is only 55%. Powerball for years paid out less than Megamillions, but with the new Megamillions rules Powerball now pays a larger percentage to the jackpot winner.

        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
        The Quantum Master
        West Concord, MN
        United States
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        December 7, 2001
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        Posted: October 22, 2013, 7:03 am - IP Logged

        There, all 75 and 15 covered in 15 lines.

        02 10 15 27 28 - 10
        42 47 49 52 64 - 07
        09 18 21 34 44 - 09
        43 45 60 63 69 - 11
        04 08 11 32 70 - 02
        05 06 38 41 72 - 15
        14 16 23 31 66 - 13
        07 13 39 54 68 - 06
        26 29 30 56 75 - 01
        12 20 36 40 61 - 08
        03 37 48 50 65 - 12
        33 46 55 58 73 - 14
        17 19 57 59 67 - 03
        01 24 25 62 71 - 05
        22 35 51 53 74 - 04

        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
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        Use at your own risk.

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          Jill34786's avatar - Lottery-006.jpg
          Windermere, FL/Franklin, TN
          United States
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          March 1, 2007
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          Posted: October 22, 2013, 1:01 pm - IP Logged

          Did anyone notice in all the hoopla of the changes to the Megamillions game the reduced winning percentage of the jackpot paid out? At one time it was 65%. Now it is only 55%. Powerball for years paid out less than Megamillions, but with the new Megamillions rules Powerball now pays a larger percentage to the jackpot winner.

          The annuity payout is spread out over 30 years instead of 26 which is why the cash value has gone down on MM. The annuity payments are a bit more heavily back end loaded than PB.

          ** Some people fulfill their dreams by receiving entitlements from the Government while others wake up and work hard for it! **

            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
            Happyland
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            September 1, 2013
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            Posted: October 22, 2013, 1:31 pm - IP Logged

            I am too having trouble  trying to figure out how 1:258 million equates to 1:129 million myself. Thought I was going crazy for a second lol.

            The answer can't be "IF you play two games" because if you play two games then your odds would

            2: 258 million . The Answer also cannot be " add megaplier" because adding the megaplier for an extra dollar for each game does not effect the "ODDS' of winning in ANY way... it only increases the payouts (Excluding the jackpot prize).

            "LottoMetro" please  explain your answer because I am a bit confused. I will quote you on this you stated >

            "Mega Millions cost $1, Powerball costs $2. Odds of Powerball jackpot are 1 in 175,223,510. So to compare by cost, Mega Millions is still better because you can buy 2 tickets for the price of one Powerball. That gives you odds of 2 in 258,890,850 or simplified as 1 in 129,445,425. "

             

              ^ I am sorry but buying two tickets DOES NOT cut your odds of winning the Jackpot in half to 129,445,425 (that would be great IF IT DID though) . It only gives you  the same exact odds you mentioned 2 out of 258,890,850 compared  to 1 out of 285,890,850 which is really not much off what I would consider a "Significant Odds deduction"

            This is a very old and misunderstood argument.

            Odds are added with multiple tickets; thus, 1:258,890,850 times 2 equals 1:129,445,425. Note that this only applies to tickets in the same drawing.

            Let me give an example of a smaller set of combinations:

            A lottery draws 1 number from 1,2,3,4,5,6. Your chances of winning are therefore 1 in 6 or 1/6 = ~0.1667

            If you buy 2 tickets, you are buying 2 numbers. Your chances of winning are then 2 in 6 or 1/3 = ~0.3333

            ~0.1667 * 2 = ~0.3333

            It is counter-intuitive because it doesn't make sense that buying 2 tickets doubles your chances, but that's the truth. The odds are so astronomical to begin with that this does not make a signficant difference on your ability to win. You would have to buy 25 MILLION tickets just to have a 10% chance of winning.

            If you can't understand that then please, be my guest and ask the lottery.....they will give you the same answer.

            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

              Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
              Los Angeles, California
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              January 5, 2011
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              Posted: October 22, 2013, 2:23 pm - IP Logged

              This is a very old and misunderstood argument.

              Odds are added with multiple tickets; thus, 1:258,890,850 times 2 equals 1:129,445,425. Note that this only applies to tickets in the same drawing.

              Let me give an example of a smaller set of combinations:

              A lottery draws 1 number from 1,2,3,4,5,6. Your chances of winning are therefore 1 in 6 or 1/6 = ~0.1667

              If you buy 2 tickets, you are buying 2 numbers. Your chances of winning are then 2 in 6 or 1/3 = ~0.3333

              ~0.1667 * 2 = ~0.3333

              It is counter-intuitive because it doesn't make sense that buying 2 tickets doubles your chances, but that's the truth. The odds are so astronomical to begin with that this does not make a signficant difference on your ability to win. You would have to buy 25 MILLION tickets just to have a 10% chance of winning.

              If you can't understand that then please, be my guest and ask the lottery.....they will give you the same answer.

              Both views are right, but the confusion comes in the proper terminology: Odds versus Probability

              Buying 1 MM ticket has probability of 1 in 258,890,850 and 2 tickets is 2 chances so yes, equivalent to 1 in 129,445,425.

              But similarly, 1 MM ticket has odds of 1:258,890,849 and 2 tickets is 2:258,890,848 so apparently not much of an improvement when looked at this way.

              I wrote about this before but basic summary is below:

              Probability is:  ( chances for ) / ( total chances )

              Odds is: ( chances for   ) : ( chances against )

              Two different ways of expressing the same situation, and can be converted to one another.

              Probability is x in y or x/y

              Odds is x to y or x:y

              The main problem is with the lottery industry, pretty much everything is expressed in probabilities, but they call it odds.(so do I, its easier to type) So when people are talking about odds in relation to the lottery, it can be confusing sometimes. Be clear to avoid confusion.

                Hermanus104's avatar - 5027340606 1e360c8038_s.jpg
                Northern Virginia
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                Posted: October 22, 2013, 5:58 pm - IP Logged

                OK...

                • Match 4 numbers + the Mega Ball: $5,000 (odds are 1 in 739,688)
                • Match 4 numbers: $500 (odds are 1 in 52,835)
                • Match 3 numbers + the Mega Ball: $50 (odds are 1 in 10,720)

                Lower prize winners still getting robbed. If I wanted $5,000, I'd play the 4-ball. Much easier to win. If I wanted $500, I'd play the 3-ball. Much easier to win.

                Today's winning 3-ball is going to be a number between 000 and 999.

                In a lot of states, lotteries benefit education. That makes the REAL winners the only people who can't play!

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                  Marana AZ
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                  August 3, 2013
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                  Posted: October 22, 2013, 6:00 pm - IP Logged

                  One caveat about buying 2 tickets vs 1: The preceding arguments don't apply if both tickets contain the same numbers.

                    Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                    Los Angeles, California
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                    Posted: October 22, 2013, 6:31 pm - IP Logged

                    OK...

                    • Match 4 numbers + the Mega Ball: $5,000 (odds are 1 in 739,688)
                    • Match 4 numbers: $500 (odds are 1 in 52,835)
                    • Match 3 numbers + the Mega Ball: $50 (odds are 1 in 10,720)

                    Lower prize winners still getting robbed. If I wanted $5,000, I'd play the 4-ball. Much easier to win. If I wanted $500, I'd play the 3-ball. Much easier to win.

                    Yep, you got it. The middle prizes are always skew(er)ed with more percentage of sales going to top and bottom prizes. This is typical with almost all lotto style games: rob from the middle class prizes, give to the top and bottom. Rob Peter to pay Paul, no way around it.

                    The new MM is even more extreme than the previous one. Just look at the percentages of the tiers:

                    PrizesOdds 1 inPrizeTier  Percent
                    $84,350,000  258,890,8505 + Mega32.58%
                    $1,000,000 18,492,2045 of 55.41%
                    $5,000 739,6884 + Mega0.68%
                    $500 52,8354 of 50.95%
                    $50 10,7203 + Mega0.47%
                    $5 7663 of 50.65%
                    $5 4732 + Mega1.06%
                    $2 561 + Mega3.54%
                    $1 21Mega4.67%

                    Bottom line: you don't play MM/PB to gamble and make money, and you don't play for the 2nd-9th prizes. They're all a rip-off (especially in the middle) with only 18% total payout and typically much less. You play just for a chance at a dream Top Prize. Any other prize you get is just a consolation prize.

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                      Member #94616
                      July 24, 2010
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                      Posted: October 22, 2013, 7:48 pm - IP Logged

                      OK...

                      • Match 4 numbers + the Mega Ball: $5,000 (odds are 1 in 739,688)
                      • Match 4 numbers: $500 (odds are 1 in 52,835)
                      • Match 3 numbers + the Mega Ball: $50 (odds are 1 in 10,720)

                      Lower prize winners still getting robbed. If I wanted $5,000, I'd play the 4-ball. Much easier to win. If I wanted $500, I'd play the 3-ball. Much easier to win.

                      Good point, payout is NOT worth playing the game.  And Powerball is too expensive per game......

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                        Chattanooga, TN
                        United States
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                        May 5, 2009
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                        Posted: October 22, 2013, 8:05 pm - IP Logged

                        Both views are right, but the confusion comes in the proper terminology: Odds versus Probability

                        Buying 1 MM ticket has probability of 1 in 258,890,850 and 2 tickets is 2 chances so yes, equivalent to 1 in 129,445,425.

                        But similarly, 1 MM ticket has odds of 1:258,890,849 and 2 tickets is 2:258,890,848 so apparently not much of an improvement when looked at this way.

                        I wrote about this before but basic summary is below:

                        Probability is:  ( chances for ) / ( total chances )

                        Odds is: ( chances for   ) : ( chances against )

                        Two different ways of expressing the same situation, and can be converted to one another.

                        Probability is x in y or x/y

                        Odds is x to y or x:y

                        The main problem is with the lottery industry, pretty much everything is expressed in probabilities, but they call it odds.(so do I, its easier to type) So when people are talking about odds in relation to the lottery, it can be confusing sometimes. Be clear to avoid confusion.

                        AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! My head, My Head!!!!!!!!! It hurts... There is smoke coming out of my ears!!!

                          Jill34786's avatar - Lottery-006.jpg
                          Windermere, FL/Franklin, TN
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                          Posted: October 22, 2013, 8:27 pm - IP Logged

                          Prior to the matrix change, 96% of all prizes was $7 or under. This game as well as PB has and always will be a suckers bet. Some put too much emphasis that "their" time will come. Chances are someone here on LP will win a 2nd tier prize during their lifetime but the odds of anyone here winning either PB or the MM jackpot is extremely unlikely. I hope I'm wrong but the odds are against all of us.

                          ** Some people fulfill their dreams by receiving entitlements from the Government while others wake up and work hard for it! **

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
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                            March 24, 2001
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                            Posted: October 22, 2013, 9:41 pm - IP Logged

                            Prior to the matrix change, 96% of all prizes was $7 or under. This game as well as PB has and always will be a suckers bet. Some put too much emphasis that "their" time will come. Chances are someone here on LP will win a 2nd tier prize during their lifetime but the odds of anyone here winning either PB or the MM jackpot is extremely unlikely. I hope I'm wrong but the odds are against all of us.

                            With all the state lotteries with better odds of being won and having jackpots that many times exceed $50M, there's no reason for anyone, even LP members to give up their dream of winning a lottery jackpot someday.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

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                              Posted: October 22, 2013, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

                              I have successfully matched the golden number of 14 in the new matrix. Maybe that signifies a good omen in this new matrix for me!!!